Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre Marcus Armes CRed Climate Change; Renewable Energy: Hard Choices.

Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICEEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre

Marcus Armes

CRed

Climate Change; Renewable Energy: Hard Choices Ahead

University of East Anglia

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal falling rapidly -

coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p

potential contribution to

Electricity Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Difficult Choices Ahead

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - RenewableUltimate potential

contribution to Electricity Supply

cost in 2020

On Shore Wind

~25%available now for commercial exploitation

~ 2p

Off Shore 25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3pGOVERNMENT EFFORTS to quadruple power generated from offshore wind farms by 2010 will fail because it is assuming unproven technology will deliver higher capacity turbines, contractors warned this week.

Offshore wind looses up to 8% of electricty compared to onshore.

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - RenewableUltimate potential

contribution to Electricity Supply

cost in 2020

On Shore Wind

~25%available now for commercial exploitation

~ 2p

Off Shore 25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3p

Hydro 5%technically mature, but limited potential

2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic 50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% +available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - RenewableUltimate potential

contribution to Electricity Supply

cost in 2020

On Shore Wind

~25%available now for commercial exploitation

~ 2p

Off Shore 25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3p

Hydro 5%technically mature, but limited potential

2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic 50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% +available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government intervention

not costed

Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - RenewableUltimate potential

contribution to Electricity Supply

cost in 2020

On Shore Wind

~25%available now for commercial exploitation

~ 2p

Off Shore 25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3p

Hydro 5%technically mature, but limited potential

2.5 - 3p

Photovoltaic 50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% +available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government intervention

not costed

Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years

which is unlikely

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power

• Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020

• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS

• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

Our Choices: They are difficult

A diverse supply of renewables across the country will provide security.

• A diverse renewable supply will be local

• less prone to cascade power cuts

• Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW

• Failure of one of these requires much greater backup

• Localised generation reduces transmission/distribution losses

BUT:

Aren’t Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply