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Content Copyright jWorldTimes.com

Jahangir World Times

Published: Feburary, 2013

The European Economic Crisis and its Impacton World

The situation in many debt-ridden countries worsened with a major politicalupheaal and the resultant chan!e in ei!ht out o" 1# countries hit by the crisis$

The crisis led to power shi"ts in %reece, Ireland, Italy, &ortu!al, 'pain, 'loenia,

'loa(ia, and the )etherlands$

US Ambassador Richard Olson

Friday, February 01, 2013
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A number of countries in Europe face serious financial crisis that has made it impossible for them torefinance their o!ernment debt" #he debt crisis resulted from a number of comple$ factors such asthe easy%credit conditions durin the 2002%0& period 'hich facilitated hih%ris( lendin and

borro'in practices, the )200*%2012 lobal financial crisis, the )200&%2012 lobal recession,international trade imbalances, the real estate bubbles, fiscal policy choices related to o!ernmentre!enues and e$penses and lobali+ation of finance" Another reason for the crisis is the approach

used by nations to bail out troubled ban(in industries and pri!ate bond%holders" #he result 'as theburdenin of these economies 'ith the pri!ate debts"

#he debt crisis started in late 200 as a result of the risin pri!ate and o!ernment debt" #heinterestin part of the crisis is the different causes 'hich !aried from country to country" Amonthem is the property bubble throuh 'hich the ban(in system bailouts 'ere transferred toso!erein debt" #hese bailout pac(aes 'ere the response of o!ernments in these countries to

boost the slo'in of economies in the post%bubble era" #he hih public%sector 'ae and pensioncommitment 'ere another cause 'hich increased the o!ernment debt"

#he situation in many debt%ridden countries 'orsened 'ith a ma-or political uphea!al and the

resultant chane in eiht out of 1* countries hit by the crisis" #he crisis led to po'er shifts in.reece, /reland, /taly, ortual, Spain, Slo!enia, Slo!a(ia, and the etherlands" espite so!ereindebt ha!in risen substantially in only a fe' Euro+one countries, 'ith the three most affectedcountries .reece, /reland and ortual collecti!ely only accountin for 4 of the Euro+one5s rossdomestic product 6.7, it has become a percei!ed problem for the area as a 'hole, leadin tospeculation of further contaion of other European countries and a possible brea(up of theEuro+one and slo'in do'n of the 'orld economy"

#he response of some o!ernments 'as on austerity measures such as hiher ta$es and lo'ere$penses 'hich contributed to social unrest" #he economists did not fa!our these steps rather manyof them ad!ocate reater deficits for economies strulin to sail throuh debt crisis" #he ad!ice'as especially for countries facin sharp rise in the budet deficits and so!erein debts" #he mainarument 'as the crisis of in!estors5 confidence 'hich fuelled the fliht of capital from the debt%stric(en countries to better performin economies"

/n the mid%2012, due to implementation of structural reforms and successful fiscal measures in thecountries at ris( and !arious policy measures ta(en by European Union 6EU7 leaders, financialstability in the Euro+one has impro!ed sinificantly and interest rates ha!e steadily fallen" #hecontaion ris( has also reatly diminished for other euro +one countries" As of October 2012 onlythree out of 1* Euro+one countries, namely .reece, ortual and 8yprus still battled 'ith lon%terminterest rates abo!e per cent" 9y the end of 2012, the debt crisis forced fi!e out of 1* Euro+one

countries to see( help from other nations"9y the end of 2012, the debt crisis forced fi!e out of 1* Euro+one countries to see( help from othernations"#he countries li(e .reece facin debt crisis 'ere amon ood performer economies in early mid%2000s" #he lobal financial crisis of the late 2000s, .reece 'as hit hard because of its shippin andtourism industries 'hich 'ere especially sensiti!e to business cycle" #he o!ernment spent hea!ilyto (eep the economy runnin" /t helped the economy but the country5s debt increased accordinly"As the crisis intensified, the .ree( o!ernment re:uested an initial loan of ;oney Fund 6/>F7 to co!er its financial needs"

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/n response, the stoc( mar(ets 'orld'ide declined alon 'ith the euro currency" #he .ree(o!ernment announced a series of austerity measures to secure a three%year ;110 billion loan" #he.ree( public resented this 'ith reat aner leadin to massi!e protests, riots and social unrest"Althouh austerity measures helped .reece manae primary deficit but as a side%effect it alsoincreased the recessionary pressures and neati!e impact on economy"

/n February 2012, an />F official neotiatin .ree( austerity measures admitted that e$cessi!espendin cuts 'ere harmin .reece"

#o control the situation, the />F and other lenders areed in 2012 to pro!ide a second bailoutpac(ae 'orth ;130 billion, conditional on the implementation of another harsh austerity pac(ae"For the first time, the bailout deal also in cluded a debt%restructurin areement 'ith the pri!ateholders of .ree( o!ernment bonds" /t is the 'orld5s biest debt%restructurin deal e!er done,

affectin some ;20 billion of .ree( o!ernment bonds"

/n return, the Euro roup areed to lo'er interest rates and prolon debt maturities and to pro!ide.reece 'ith additional funds of around ;10bn for a debt%buy%bac( proramme" #he latter allo'ed.reece to retire about half of the ;2 billion in debt that Athens o'es pri!ate creditors, therebysha!in rouhly ;20 billion of that debt" #his should brin .reece5s debt%to%. ratio do'n to12inister

issued a t'o%year uarantee to ban(s5 depositors and bond%holders" #he uarantees 'eresubse:uently rene'ed for ne' deposits and bonds in a slihtly different manner"

?ith /reland5s credit ratin fallin rapidly in the face of mountin estimates of the ban(in losses,uaranteed depositors and bondholders cashed in durin 200%10" ?ith yields on /rish .o!ernmentdebt risin rapidly, the o!ernment neotiated bailout pac(ae of ;*"= billion in o!ember 2010"#oether 'ith additional ;1*"= billion comin from /reland5s o'n reser!es and pensions, theo!ernment recei!ed ;&= billion, of 'hich up to ;3< billion 'as to be used to support the country5sailin financial sector" /n return the o!ernment areed to reduce its budet deficit to belo' three

percent by 201="#he .ree( o!ernment announced a series of austerity measures to secure a three%year ;110 billion

loan"/n @uly 2011 European leaders areed to cut the interest rate that /reland 'as payin on its bailout

loan from around 4 to bet'een 3"=4 and

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'as e$pected to sa!e the country bet'een 00 and *00 million Euros per year"

#he outloo( of the /rish economy is promisin" Accordin to the 8entre for Economics and9usiness Research /reland5s e$port%led reco!ery 'ill radually pull its economy out of its trouh"#he impro!ed economic outloo( has helped /rish economy" #he cost of 10%year o!ernment bondshas already fallen substantially since its record hih at 124 in mid%@uly 2011" /n @uly 2012, it 'as

do'n at a sustainable "34 and it is e$pected to fall e!en further to a le!el of only ueen asir
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The Crisis o" %oernment isn*t +erThe Islamists are "ast losin! their popularity, but their opponents are still too

wea( and diided to ote them out o" o""ice



/n a ne' year5s messae >uhammad 9adia, the Supreme .uide of Eypt5s >uslim 9rotherhood,ad!ised his follo'ers to temper resilience 'ith mananimity" D9e li(e the tree 'hich, 'hen battered

by stones, drops its finest fruit, he said"

is most prominent adherent, resident >uhammad >orsi, has certainly pro!en resilient" /norin

a tide of opposition that has s'ollen since he too( office in @une, >r >orsi pushed throuh acontro!ersial referendum in ecember to endorse a ne' constitution" Since then he has faced do'nchallenes from Eypt5s restless -udes, bra!ed serial resinations of ad!isers and ministers, and

parried opponents by sponsorin a national dialoue that is actually bein held -ust by 9rothers andtheir allies" At elections ne$t month for the lo'er house of parliament, the 9rotherhood5s party loo(sset to do 'ell" /n the interim, than(s to an election last year 'hen only 104 !oted, it controls the

pre!iously 'ea( upper house, 'hich the ne' constitution has helpfully turned into Eypt5s sole iftemporary leislature"

Get >r >orsi has sho'n little mananimity" /nstead of usin his riht to appoint a third of seats inthe upper house to ma(e it more di!erse, he put in more yes%men" #he 9rotherhood5s ro'dy

members ha!e been allo'ed to beat up protesters outside the president5s office" /ts la'yers,leislators and allies in the media ha!e launched increasinly sharp attac(s on his critics" Eypt5s

public prosecutor, recently appointed by >r >orsi o!er furious ob-ections from his peers, has

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ordered a probe into a tele!ision satirist, 9assem Goussef, 'hom /slamist litiators accuse ofinsultin the president" is crimeH Usin as a prop a red, heart%shaped pillo' 'ith >r >orsi5s face

pictured on it"

#he Supreme .uide also called on the 9rothers to strule aainst Dopportunists 'hose oal is toDundermine the popular 'ill and to Dfoil the /slamist pro-ect" Other dar(er mutterins are bein

heard in /slamist :uarters" An article on a 9rotherly 'ebsite, for instance, hints of a conspiracyaainst Eypt5s ne' order by 8optic 8hristians and Cionists, orchestrated by an American manate,Sheldon Adelson"

#he mood on Eypt5s streets is bitter and polarised" #he comin eneral election 'ill be the se!enthtime since the re!olution of @anuary 2=th, 2011, that Eyptians ha!e been as(ed to :ueue for hoursin national polls" /n ecember5s fla'ed and rushed referendum, fe'er than a third of reistered!oters turned out" Richer and better%educated ones larely !oted aainst >r >orsi5s constitution butthe rural poor !oted o!er'helminly in fa!our, uppin the o!erall yes !ote to r >orsi5s cabinet clumsily un!eiled but then retracted a set of ta$increases in ecember, further delayin a lon%a'aited debt%relief deal 'ith the />F, a ratinsaency do'nraded Eypt onto a par 'ith stric(en .reece" >any hotels are empty" #hree%:uartersof the ile cruise fleet 'as rounded o!er the 8hristmas hih season" Forein currency is dryinup" #he central ban( has allo'ed the Eyptian pound to depreciate for the first time since there!olution" /nflation is set to ather pace" Eyptians are painfully a'are that, to secure the />F5s

proffered Ir >orsi5s troubles ha!e yet to help his non%/slamist opponents" espite efforts to fore aunited front, secular liberals ha!e failed to pro!ide a con!incin alternati!e or to create stronnet'or(s" 9ut this could chane" Some sense a comin reaction not only aainst the 9rothers,

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'hose imae of piety and competence has been tarnished, but aainst the /slamist trend in eneral"Get fe' e$pect this to happen in time to affect ne$t month5s election"

#he 9rothers may be more 'orried by a challene from their riht" /n the eneral election a yearao, puritan Salafist parties ot a :uarter of the seats" #he countrys most charismatic Salafist

politician, a+em Abu /smail, has announced an alliance 'ith a roup of senior fiures in the

larest Salafist party, 'ho recently resined en masse in protest aainst its doctrinal riidity" ?ithhis fol(sy charm puttin the dour >r >orsi in the shade, and 'ith the 9rothers blamed for failin tofi$ thins, the a+emoon, as >r Abu /smails ro'dy enthusiasts ha!e been dubbed, may pro!e to bethe ne$tJand no less alarminJ'a!e of Eypts future"@?# es(

The &a(-"!han elations post-201.scenario

The &a(-"!han relations hae been on a thorny road since &a(istan/s

establishment in 1.#$



a(istan and Afhanistan are no' led by pramatic leaders 'ho focus on domestic economicro'th and political stability" 9ut it is unclear 'hether this harmony in national oals and principlescan o!erride the lon%standin mutual suspicions and o!ercome a cacophony of contradictorydomestic interests" espite intensifyin the a(istan%Afhanistan political consultations and the

acti!e US role in the reion, fears about trust deficit and state%sponsored terrorist intrusions stillpersist particularly bet'een the t'o national security establishments" #heir reluctance for economicand security cooperation to boost trade and discourae cross%border terrorism las far behind the
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t'o nations5 political sloan 'ords Dbrotherly countries and Dstrateic neihbours"

ot'ithstandin the tremendous lon%term potential, the promises of bilateral trade and in!estmentcooperation in the oil and as sectors 6'ith especial reference to the 8aspian Sea oil7, smallindustries, ban(in, education and e!en transportation still remain unfulfilled" /nternationally,a(istan and Afhanistan are in a mood to re!erse their 8old ?ar strateic roles" A risin Kabul

intensifies its reional proacti!e diplomacy aimed at curtailin neati!e role by the neihbourincountries inside its borders" And, on the other hand, a retrenched a(istan pursues a minimalist%

passi!ely reacti!e policy in Afhanistan to counter /ndian desins in its bac(round"

#he a(%Afhan relations ha!e been on a thorny road since a(istan5s establishment in 1uslim ?orld for faster economic proress, democracy,literacy and stability" o'e!er, the unleashed e$tremists from Afhanistan and a(istan candestabilise the >iddle East and destroy chanes there" #hus the Arab Sprin compounded by the US'ithdra'al from the reion has resulted in ne' transformations of peace%buildin 'ith thead!ersaries"

#he 'ithdra'al of US forces from Afhanistan depends on ma(in peace 'ith the #aliban" #his'ould lea!e a self%sustainin Afhan o!ernment and army to ta(e o!er the responsibilities of

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security, o!ernance and de!elopment in the post%201< Afhanistan" o'e!er, reional security isessential if Afhanistan is to sur!i!e" Unfortunately, peace tal(s bet'een the #aliban and the USha!e not been contributed by a(istan" /slamabad has al'ays been in the hub of the Afhan affairs"

o%one can deny the fact that a(istan 'as the frontline ally of the ?est durin the So!iet in!asionin Afhanistan" Similarly, a(istan pro!ided !ital loistical and intellience support to the US and

its A#O allies durin their attac( on Afhanistan in 2001" o' peace tal(s sans a(istan bet'eenthe !ital sta(eholders 6#aliban and the US in oha7, the natural phenomenon of a successfuldiplomacy 'ill not 'or(" /t oes 'ithout sayin that a(istan is an important country in the peace%

buildin process concernin Afhanistan" So inorin such an important country 'ill be tantamountto a fraile peace in Afhanistan"

?ith the US%A#O 'ithdra'al in 201

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aree on non%interference" Reional diplomacy is the need of the hour for a loner and lastin peacefor a(istan and Afhanistan ali(e"#he Arab Sprin has offered a chance to the >uslim ?orld for faster economic proress,democracy, literacy and stability"#he reion is beset 'ith crises that are ettin 'orse, but there is still time before 201< to rectify

the situation" eotiations 'ith the #aliban are indeed important" o'e!er, this must not ta(e place

in bits and pieces" #he US is conductin tal(s 'ith the #aliban in ohaN 'hereas the Kar+aio!ernment holds tal(s 'ith the #aliban in aris" #his is a dichotomy in a framented policy of theUS" A coherent and interated neotiation policy of the US%Afhanistan%a(istan is direly neededto deal 'ith the #aliban -ointly and effecti!ely"

#he US policy and stratey ha!e not been shared 'ith its allies" /t must clarify 'hat relationship it'ants to ha!e 'ith Afhanistan, a(istan and the 'ider reion after its 'ithdra'al in 201

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On the last day of 2012, a year after the last American troops left /ra:, endin nearly nine years ofmilitary occupation, at least 3 /ra:is perished in a 'a!e of bombins and shootins across the

country that tareted policemen, o!ernment officials and ordinary people of !aried sects"Accordin to /ra: 9ody 8ount 6/987, a meticulous mainly American and 9ritish monitorin roup,the o!erall toll in deaths of ci!ilians due to political !iolence last year 'as ali(i, the touh Shia >uslim 'ho has been prime minister since 200, sho's increasinlyauthoritarian, sectarian and democracy%sappin tendencies, ruthlessly oustin or outmanoeu!rinri!als, and usin underhand methods to impose his 'ill" e is 'idely !ie'ed as a 'ould%be dictator,tolerant of corruption, reliant on the bac(in of /ran and 'illin cynically to stir up strife bet'een/ra:5s minority of Sunni Arabs and its Shia ma-ority, or 'ith /ra:5s fiercely autonomous Kurds in thenorth, to maintain his rip on po'er in 9ahdad"

A recent 'a!e of protests across the mainly Sunni areas to the north and 'est of 9ahdad, includinstri(es and sit%ins, has sharpened sectarian strife" Sunnis 'ere particularly outraed last month 'henthe bodyuards of the Sunni finance minister, Rafi al%/ssa'i, 'ere arrested"

#hat pro!o(ed memories of a similar episode a year ao, 'hen >r >ali(i5s men -ailed, tortured andsentenced to death the uards of the !ice%president, #are: al%ashemi, another leadin Sunni,accusin them of bein part of a death%s:uad that 'as taretin Shias" >r ashemi fled to the /ra:iKurds5 capital, Erbil, and no' resides in #ur(ey" e 'as later sentenced to death in absentia" Aserious illness that has recently befallen /ra:5s mainly ceremonial president, @alal #alabani, a Kurd

'ho has sometimes acted effecti!ely as a mediator abo!e the sectarian fray, has further -anled /ra:iner!es"A recent 'a!e of protests across the mainly Sunni areas to the north and 'est of 9ahdad,includin stri(es and sit%ins, has sharpened sectarian strife" Sunnis 'ere particularly outraed last

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month 'hen the bodyuards of the Sunni finance minister, Rafi al%/ssa'i, 'ere arrested"Sunni rie!ances o deep" Mon dominant until Saddam ussein5s fall 6he 'as e$ecuted in 2007and ha!in suffered the brunt of !iolence durin America5s occupation, /ra:5s Sunni Arabs rec(onthey are no' deliberately marinalised" Addressin a cro'd in the to'n of Ramadi, 'est of9ahdad, >r /ssa'i complained that Sunnis 'ere bein Dhettoised" istricts 'here they still

predominate in 9ahdad had, he said, been turned into Diant prisons rined by concrete bloc(s"

#he ci!il 'ar ne$t door in Syria, 'ith its increasinly bitter sectarian fla!our, has not helped" ?hile/ra:i Sunni roups, includin some tied to al%Laeda, lend arms and fihters to Syria5s rebels, >r>ali(i5s o!ernment :uietly aids 9ashar Assad5s embattled reime" Sunni /ra:i insurents 'ho onceattac(ed Americans are taretin /ra:i Shias and people connected to >r >ali(i5s o!ernment" #herecent Sunni protests ha!e also ained sympathy from >u:tada al%Sadr, a fiery Shia cleric 'hose

po'erful popular mo!ement has ro'n increasinly critical of >r >ali(i"

erhaps in an effort to 'in bac(in across the Arab sectarian chasm, >r >ali(i has been raisin thesta(es 'ith the Kurds, 'ho claim areas, includin the city of Kir(u(, that ha!e lare non%Kurdish

populations" #he oil ministry in 9ahdad fiercely opposes the increasinly successful efforts of theKurds to persuade forein companies to e$ploit oil in their o'n reion"

/ra: is still a !iolent mess" /ts democracy, imposed by the Americans, loo(s fraile" And theprospect of real harmony bet'een the three main ethnic and sectarian componentsJArab Shias,Arab Sunnis and KurdsJloo(s as distant as e!er"@?# es(

4The "uture o" &a(istan lies in holdin! "ree,

"air and transparent election$*

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5p, close and intimate with 6r ichard +lson 5' mbassador to &a(istan



&ro"ile

>r Richard Olson 'as s'orn in as Ambassador to a(istan on September 2r Olson -oined the U"S" epartment of State in 1&2" e has ser!ed in >e$ico, Uanda, #unisia,Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, the UAE 6'here he ser!ed both in Abu habi and ubai7 and in a-af, /ra:"e 'as also eputy 8hief of >ission at the United States >ission to the orth Atlantic #reatyOrani+ation 6A#O7"is ?ashinton assinments includeP State epartment Operations 8enter 6t'ice7, A#O es(, theOffice of /srael and alestinian Affairs 6t'ice, includin as irector7, and the Office of /ra:i Affairs,includin as irector"

ahan!ir*s World Times 7WT8 approached 9is E:cellency ichard +lson, the 5nited 'tates*mbassador to &a(istan, "or an e:clusie interiew$ The "ollowin! are e:cerpts;

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WT; E:cellency, on! 6arch/ to Islamabad at a time when &a(istanis loo(in! "orward to hae a "irst-eer democratic transition$ 9ow would you comment on the

present situation?

+;?e are loo(in for'ard to transition of po'er from one ci!ilian authority to another ci!ilianauthority throuh a free and fair election" ?e are happy that the issue of QMon >arch 'as settled

in a peaceful manner" #he people also en-oyed the riht to et assembled freely" #he future ofa(istan lies in holdin free, fair and transparent election" #he people of a(istan are to decide thefuture of their country throuh an election process" ?e are encouraed that the QMon >archremained peaceful" ?e do not support any indi!idual or any particular political party" ?e did notsupport r #ahirul Ladri" ?e only support democracy in a(istan"

WT; There is tension between &a(istan and India on the >ine o" Control 7>oC8$ 9ow do you

"eel about this re!ion?

+; ?e feel :uite encouraed to note that ceasefire on the Mine of 8ontrol is maintainin no'" /t isimperati!e for both a(istan and /ndia to 'or( toether to pre!ent incidents of !iolation of ceasefire

on the Mine of 8ontrol"

WT; &resident arac( +bama has ta(en oath as &resident o" the 5nited 'tates "or his second

term$ Will his administration "ollow the same policy, or rethin(in!, bac( in Washin!ton?

+;#he policy of the United States to'ards a(istan 'ill continue on the same lines as it has beenin the past" ?e 'ant to build up a stron partnership 'ith a(istan based on the commonappreciation of our mutual interests and mutual respect" resident Obama has a lon%time !ision forour relation 'ith a(istan"

WT; When you tal( o" the continuity o" the 5' policy, does that mean a continuity o" the

drone stri(es?

+;/t is not a secret that there are many challenes in our relationship, especially in year 2011on'ards" / thin( there is a sense of partnership, a ne' sense of enaement since last summer"#here ha!e been hih%le!el contacts bet'een the t'o sides" Forein >inister ina Rabbani Kharhas been to ?ashinton and resident Cardari to e' Gor(" ?e also held meetins 'ith different'or(in roups, and they ha!e been tal(in of cooperation in enery, education, economy andfinancial sectors" Our relationship is on a much more producti!e side" Our relationship is to ta(efor'ard and put the relationship on solid le!els" ?hether it is a tal( of drones or anythin else, the

broader :uestion is of counterin terrorism and e$tremism" a(istan and the United States share the

common ob-ecti!es 'ith reard to counterin e$tremism" #his is a part of our bilateral dialoue and'e discuss many issues as ho' to mo!e for'ard"

WT; @ollowin! the 'alala incident, the two countries held intensie tal(s$

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WT; We (now the strate!ic dialo!ue is bac( on trac( and di""erent wor(in! !roups haebeen holdin! meetin!s$ ut certain promises made to &a(istan by the 5' still remain to be

"ul"illed$ @or instance, the aid promised under the Aerry >u!ar erman 7A>8 law has notyet been !ien$ Thou!h this arran!ement is under the 5' law, the in"low is not bein!

maintained$

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US policy for the last se!eral years is the appreciation of 'hat happened in 1&%0"

WT; There are lot o" apprehensions around that the 5' mi!ht ditch once a!ain and abandon

this re!ion without appropriate settlement in "!hanistan?

+;/ 'anted to tal( about this" #he US policy to'ards Afhanistan has been !ery conscious of this

aspect" 9oth in Afhanistan and in the reion, 'e ha!e ta(en some concrete measures to addressthese issues" First, 'e ha!e a strateic partnership 'ith Afhanistan 'hich reulates our relationshipin the comin decade of transformation i"e" 201< to 202ine o" Dulnerability

The latest "lare-up o" tensions alon! the >ine o" Control 7>oC8 in Aashmir is a

reminder o" the accident-prone nature o" &a(istan-India relations in a strate!ic

enironment unaltered by improement in trade and political ties$



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#he border hostilities 'itnessed last 'ee( are inherent in the unresol!ed status of bilateral disputes"#his ma(es the Mo8 susceptible to ad!antae see(in by one or both sides"

espite tradin accusations in the past se!eral days, both countries ha!e sho'n mutual interest indefusin the present tensions to (eep the process of normalisation on trac(" E!en so :uestions ha!e

been raised about 'hether the e$istin arranements are ade:uate for escalation control or need tobe strenthened by more formal and robust mechanismsH /f cross%Mo8 clashes a fe' 'ee(s ao hadtheir enesis in /ndia5s construction of ne' bun(ers that are barred by a 200= areement thatfollo'ed the 2003 ceasefire, ho' can similar !iolence be a!erted in the futureH

Recallin the se:uence of e!ents so far 'ill help to ans'er these :uestions" Met us therefore

consider the (no'n facts about the incidents of @anuary , & and 10 and the de!elopments that ledup to them"

#he a(istani !ersion of ho' it all started focuses on the attempt by the /ndian army around threemonths ao to build ne' obser!ation posts around the !illae of 8haronda in the a-i ir sector"

ere it is important to recall the -oint statement areed bet'een the t'o countries in 200=" #hisfollo'ed the Mo8 ceasefire areed at the prime ministerial%le!el in 2003" /n the Auust &, 200= -ointstatement issued after the second round of e$pert%le!el tal(s, both countries areed not to Dde!elopany ne' posts and defence 'or(s alon the Mo8" #his commitment 'as reaffirmed in subse:uent

-oint statements" ?hen efforts to build ne' posts 'ere made or suspected in the past, border flameetins 'ere souht to resol!e the matter"

#his time around 'hen a(istan5s military authorities detected ne' constructions bein built nearthe Mo8, they as(ed for the customary fla meetin to address the issue" #he directors eneral of>ilitary Operations from both countries also spo(e t'ice on the hotline" ?hen a(istan5s ob-ectionto the construction 'or( 'as con!eyed it 'as met by the /ndian insistence that this 'as routinemaintenance of old fortifications and not a ceasefire !iolation" urin October 'arnins o!er aloudspea(er by a(istani troops in the area also yielded no results" #hereafter the construction

became the cause of e$chane of fire bet'een the t'o"An action%reaction cycle follo'ed" >ortar fire led to /ndian claims of ci!ilian casualties in the

!illae" #hen follo'ed a cross%border /ndian attac( on the a(istani position at Sa'an atra from'here the firin is said to ha!e come" ?hile e$chane of fire across the Mo8 is not unusual,crossin the Mine is relati!ely rare and represents an escalatory step rearded by both sides as a

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serious ceasefire !iolation" #he /ndian incursion 'ithin 30 metres of the a(istani post 'asrepulsed"

#he raidin party 'as chased a'ay but the @anuary clash claimed the life of a a(istani soldierand left another 'ounded"/ndia insists that maintenance%related 'or( on present posts should include uprade of the Mo8

fence" /slamabad finds thisa(istan5s account 'as supported by a report in #he indu of @anuary 10" Accordin to the

ne'spaper, the /ndian army5s bun(er construction spar(ed the spiral of cross%border !iolence ) the'orst since the ceasefire 'ent into effect" ?hen /ndia5s efence >inistry souht to refute thereport, the paper insisted that the official denial in fact accepted (ey elements of its story includinthe construction around 8haronda, 'hich triered the clashes"

#he day after the /ndian attac(, on @anuary *, a(istan5s ., >O spo(e on the hotline 'ith his/ndian counterpart to lode a complaint about the Dunacceptable pro!ocation" A day later, a(istanitroops 'ere accused by /ndian officials of conductin a cross%border raid in another sector, atotsprin, alleedly (illin t'o soldiers, one of 'hom 'as said to ha!e been beheaded"

On the mornin of @anuary , the t'o .s spo(e aain" #his time the /ndian official protested anddemanded that a(istan 5return5 the head of the /ndian soldier" a(istan5s military and Forein>inistry spo(esmen denied this incident too( place and described it as an /ndian fabrication todi!ert attention from the first incident and instead malin a(istan" #ellinly an /ndian armystatement of @anuary &, attributed to a spo(esman of the orthern 8ommand, made no reference toany mutilation of soldiers5 bodies, only to a fire%fiht in 'hich t'o soldiers died"

>ean'hile as much of the /ndian media 'hipped up a fren+y a(istan5s media remained muted inits response" ?hen opposition parties assailed the 8onress o!ernment for its D'ea( responsemore ha'(ish statements emered from /ndia5s political and military leaders" /t didn5t stop there" On@anuary 10, at otsprin in A+ad

Kashmir, sniper fire from /ndian troops claimed the life of a a(istani soldier"

/n the t'o capitals, hih commissioners 'ere summoned, protests loded and demands made forin!estiation into the disputed incidents" /slamabad5s offer to hold an independent in:uiry ofceasefire !iolations by the United ations Obser!ers .roup for /ndia and a(istan 6UO./7 'as

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rebuffed by elhi, to no%one5s surprise" /ndia has ne!er allo'ed U>O./ to operate on its side ofthe Mo8 and since 1*2 also refused to report complaints to the obser!er roup"

9order tensions are li(ely to subside in the days ahead" 9ut the fraility of the Mo8 in the frauhtconte$t of a festerin dispute 'ill persist" And in the absence of any accommodation o!er Kashmir,the 2003 ceasefire 'ill continue to ser!e as a 'ay of maintainin a tenuous peace in a hea!ilymilitarised and !olatile reion"

8an this process be sustained if contentious issues remain unaddressed 'hile mo!ement is made on5softer5 issuesH#he ceasefire has by and lare held since 2003 despite periodic e$chanes of fire and occasionals(irmishes" /t 'as also obser!ed durin the most serious escalation in tensions in recent years thatfollo'ed the 200& terrorist attac(s in >umbai" After 200&, /ndian authorities fre:uentlyac(no'leded that the cross%Mo8 Dinfiltration had substantially declined" 9ut complaints ofceasefire breaches ha!e been increasin" #hese mutual complaints 'ere most recently reiterateddurin the e$pert%le!el tal(s on military 89>s in elhi on ecember 2&, 2012"

/f the ceasefire is not to become a hostae to incidents li(e the recent ones, triered by contention

o!er ne' constructions, it 'ould ma(e sense to formalise the areement on non%construction of ne'posts alon the Mo8" Mast 'ee(5s hostilities illustrate that this mutual commitment can beundermined by disareements o!er 'hether constructions are 'ithin the barred rane"

#he 200= underta(in on non%construction of posts has been under discussion in the e$pert%le!eltal(s since 200" /t also fiured in the last round in ecember 2012" iscussion has been aimed ate!ol!in a frame'or( areement by establishin clear parameters for non%construction of defence

posts" 9ut proress has been lacial" o consensus has emered on the proposed elements for suchan areement" a(istan 'ants the posts to be barred 'ithin =00 metres on either side of the Mo8"iscussion has also raned o!er specifyin the limits of maintenance 'or( for e$istin posts" /ndiainsists that maintenance%related 'or( on present posts should include uprade of the Mo8 fence"

/slamabad finds this unacceptable"

Reconcilin these differences to conclude a comprehensi!e 8onfidence 9uildin >easure 689>7miht help strenthen the ceasefires operation" 8hances of future contention can also be minimisedif this incorporates an e$plicit mechanism for a dispute resolution" #his 'ill not eliminate theincidents that become flashpoints for border clashes but it 'ould address an aspect of an easilyinflamed situation"

A more fundamental :uestion is raised about the future of the normalisation process" 8an thisprocess be sustained if contentious issues remain unaddressed 'hile mo!ement is made on QsofterissuesH

Ultimately durable dtente depends as much on the t'o countries ability to o!ercome theirdi!erences as on pursuin areas of con!erence" Unless meaninful steps are ta(en to impro!e thesecurity climate and resol!e disputes, the normalisation process 'ill be at ris( of relapsin intotensions" Until this broader conte$t e!ol!es, the Mo8 'ill continue to sinify more !ulnerabilitythan stability"

#he 'riter is a special ad!iser to the @an .roupB.eo and a former en!oy to the US and the UK"r >aleeha Modhi

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%eneral Aayani*s ussia Disit; &aradi!m

'hi"t

The 'oiet "ailure in "!hanistan due to &a(istan*s actie support "or the "!hanihad (ept both the states loc(ed in a state o" continuous hostility, with the result

that their relations were "ar "rom bein! normal "or a lon! time$



/n the inter%state relations, politics has made national interests dominant all other considerations"

#he same 'as true about the 8hina%U"S" rapprochement in 1*2, the U"S"%USSR dtente durin the8old ?ar 'hen the U"S" and Russia came closer to each other" So the same is true about a(istan5s'armin up to the Russian Federation" a(istan5s 8hief of Army Staff 68OAS7 .eneral Ashfa:ar!e+ Kayani5s recent !isit to Russia has been breedin hih e$pectations in !arious circles andmany ha!e already beun to interpret it as a paradim shift that 'ould i!e a ne' boost to relationsof both the countries" >any e!ents indicate a thrust to this shift in the modes of thin(in in both thecountries li(e the recent !isit of irector .eneral 6.7 /nter%Ser!ices /ntellience 6/S/7 Mt" .en"Caheerul /slam to Russia in 'hich he held e$tensi!e tal(s 'ith his Russian counterpart >i(hailFrad(o!" #he tal(s 'ere termed 5fruitful5 by e$perts"

And there 'as a !ery important !isit of 8OAS .eneral Kayani in October 2012, his secound to

Russia , the first bein in year 200" #hey 'ere more of a se:uel of !isits by the air chief and alsobyresident Asif Cardari, 'ho !isited Russia in >ay 2012"

ot'ithstandin the present cuddlin up of relations, there e$ists a history of hostility bet'een boththe countries" #his featured a(istan5s -oinin of the capitalist bloc in response to in!itations from

both the U"S" and Russia" #hen it 'as a(istan5s enterin into the anti%communist alliances li(eSEA#O and 8E#O" #his mar(ed the beinnin of the 'orsenin of relations" #hen there occurredthe e!ent of shootin do'n of a U2 spy plane by the So!iet Union, 'hich had flo'n from esha'arAir 9ase 6a(istan7 in 10" /t 'as purported to be spyin o!er the So!iet Union for the UnitedStates" #hen, there came a bitter e!ent of disinteration of East a(istan in 'hich the So!iet Unionhad openly bac(ed the /ndian Army to attac( a(istan" Mastly, the So!iet failure in Afhanistan due

to a(istan5s acti!e support for the Afhan @ihad (ept both the states loc(ed in a state of continuoushostility, 'ith the result that their relations 'ere far from bein normal for a lon time"

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As in international politics the 5lo!e and hate5 relationships are not permanent and such thins aresubser!ient to the clearly%defined national interests" Or, it can be put in this 'ay that the real politicof today5s politics has forced yesterday5s foes to become allies of today" Such is the case 'ith tha'in relations bet'een a(istan and Russia" #here are some eostrateic interests of both the countries'hich can be fulfilled if they 'or( in concurrence 'ith each other" #his dtente bet'een them mayyield positi!e fruits on economic and social fronts, but that appears to be uided by strateic

considerations" First, both of them ha!e sta(es in the Afhan endameN both are neihbours andsta(eholders in Afhanistan" 9oth 'ant an Afhanistan free from the U"S" bases in future, especiallyin the 'a(e of the U"S"%Afhanistan strateic partnership areement" #his 'ill allo' and ensure

presence of U"S" troops and security contractors in Afhanistan beyond 201< %% a scenario hardlyacceptable to both Russia and a(istan"

Secondly, the issues of distrust ha!e no' doubled 'ith ladimir utin5s becomin resident ofRussia on >ay *, 2012" >r utin, 'ho pre!iously ser!ed as president from year 2000 to 200&, didnot ha!e smooth e$perience 'ith the 9ush Administration because he supported the U"S" militaryaction aainst #aliban in 2001" e 'ent a step for'ard in appeasin the U"S" by supportin thedeployment of the U"S" military units into 8entral Asia" e stressed better ties 'ith A#O" ?hen

9ush decided to 'ithdra' from the Anti%9allistic >issile #reaty, utin did not sho' reaction 'hichapparently meant a (ind of silent acceptance of the decision" 9ut this time around he had ta(en o!eras the president, i!in a thouht that the U"S" had not responded in a manner it should ha!e to hiso!ertures" #hese issues 'ould ha!e certainly dra'n Russia diplomatically closer to a(istan"

#hirdly, if the alliance 'or(s, then Russia may respond positi!ely by 'ishin /ndia to stopfomentin unrest in 9alochistan" a(istan may respond by eliminatin camps of the 8entral Asianmilitants li!in in tribal areas and the border lands"Russia has also sho'n its readiness to fund and pro!ide technical assistance for the /ran%a(istanas pipeline pro-ect"Fourthly, i!en a(istan5s historically troubled relationship 'ith the U"S" and the recent plune inrelations, it is seriously thin(in of di!ersifyin its relations 'ith 'orld po'ers" #he U"S" does not

pro!e to be a reliable source in military hard'are for a(istan, 'ith 8hina not bein able to satisfythe military needs of a(istan" So a(istan has an ure to see( military hard'are from Russia"

Fifthly, /ndia is 'armin up to the U"S" and the latter is helpin it in its nuclear technoloy and'eaponry alon 'ith carryin out -oint military e$ercises in Ra-asthan" Mast year a Russiancommander, Ale$ander ostino!, on his !isit to a(istan discussed the possibility of holdin -ointmilitary e$ercises and e$chane of trainers and trainees"

#hey had strateic concerns 'hich brouht them closer" Aside from it, this alliance is li(ely to et

on 'ell 'ith the economic front as 'ell" >osco' has sho'n its 'illinness in connection 'ith themoderni+ation and sophistication of a(istan Steel >ills, by increasin its capacity from 1"1 to 1"=million tons and then up to 3 million tons" /n the comin years, Russia intends to in!est USI=00 ina(istan Steel >ills" Russia has also sho'n its readiness to fund and pro!ide technical assistancefor the /ran%a(istan as pipeline pro-ect" o', it is up to the a(istan o!ernment that it a'ardsthis contract to Russia5s oil and as company .a+prom" #hese relations 'ill promote and cementties in the education and science sectors too"

a(istani students can benefit from Russian uni!ersities if scholarships are a'arded to them" Also,a(istan can benefit from the Russian e$perience in space technoloy"

As discussed earlier a(istan stands a ood chance of ettin Russian military hard'are" #he saleof Russia%made planes, li(e >/ series, 'as stopped to a(istan because of the /ndian influence"

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o'e!er, the recent tha' in relations may offer some chances on that front" #he a(istan armya!iation uses mostly Russia%made >/%1* helicopters" /t may also be able to en-oy an uprade status'ith help from Russia" As such the Russian source can probably be a better option and alternati!efor a(istan especially in !ie' of the U"S" sanctions 'ith reard to the F1 planes" #he @F1*thunder%fihter -et production that a(istan does -ointly 'ith 8hina at the Kamra Aeronautical8omple$ is po'ered by Russian eninesN and a(istan and 8hina see( to e$port the @F1* thunder%

fihter -ets"

recisely, a(istan has become tired of its arm%t'istin by the U"S" Get it hopes that the cushion indiplomacy this relationship is li(ely to incur to a(istan 'ill help soften the U"S" attitude to'ardsa(istan" Some :uarters opine that the U"S" 'ill be alarmed after this de!elopment and 'ill alsoenter into lucrati!e deals that it has stuc( 'ith /ndia" 9ut this !ie' still remains ha+y"

Mastly, in!ol!in much of the e$pectations by this unison is somethin unrealistic" /ndia stillfeatures prime in Russias strateic calculations" #he trade of military hard'are bet'een the both isstupendous, and /ndia is the biest buyer of Russian arms, -et fihters, tan(s, submarines and'arships from Russia" Luite recently a nuclear%po'ered submarine, 'hich is capable of oin into

deep 'aters and stayin there, has been pro!ided to /ndia by Russia" #he presumption that Russia'ill sacrifice its si$%decade relations 'ith /ndia and sell most sophisticated 'eapons to a(istan issomethin unrealistic" 9ut this recent tha' at least suests that thins ha!e started mo!in in the

positi!e direction">urad Kassi

Coner!ence and

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#he history of relations bet'een a(istan and the United States 6US7 has by and lare mo!ed a

roller coaster profile, o'in to multiple and comple$ dimensions" #his multi%dimensional relation'ith t'o di!erse approaches of co%dependency and trust deficit in!ol!es the t'o countries incon!erin and di!erin bilateral relations"

o'e!er, this relationship is mutually !aluable for both the countries and mostly dependent on themeetin%points 'ith reference to the main issues" Get the sole superpo'er status of the US and thesinificant position of a(istan, as a political and strateic hub of South Asia, raise sudden andstron outbursts in this relation"

#his article aims at underscorin the matters of understandin and the issues of miscellaneousopinion and policies bet'een a(istan and the US o!er the distincti!e national and internationalconte$ts that directly lin( the t'o parties5 interests and spell out causes of sur!i!al of interaction

bet'een them durin crucial times of 5pull%and%push5"

Startin 'ith the story of relations by the post%B11 era, 'e can ma(e a list of con!erin anddi!erin interests in this complicated t'o%proned affair" After September B11, a(istan enaed'ith the US in its 'ar on terror ta(in a U%turn on its Afhan policy" #his enaement 'as acoordinated mo!e to'ards a union and uniformity reardless of this :uestion that 'ho 'as adecision%ma(er on a(istan5s side and 'hat could be the far%reachin upshot of that decision"For the State epartment, it 'as imperati!e to in!ol!e a(istan in this ame because of itseostrateic and diplomatic relationships 'ith Afhanistan" For a(istan, in the 'ords of then 8hief

E$ecuti!e of a(istan .en" er!ai+ >usharraf, it 'as essential to support the US to sur!i!e itsterritorial interity as bein an economically 'ea( country %% a(istan %% could not bear any assaultor economic sanctions" 9esides it 'as a time for a(istan to flop all the /ndian propaandas aainsta(istan5s Kashmir aenda, the nu(es and the attempts to tarnish a(istan5s imae in theinternational community as a terrorist country"

#his post%B11 a(%US 5marriae of con!enience5 started 'ith the mutual promises and pledes, butshortly after that both the parties found each other standin at different platforms" #he trust%deficit

phase started on both ends o!er !arious issues 'ith the result that the 'ar on terror did not end in ayear" As e$pected and estimated by a(istan, the US alleed that the a(istan administration andintellience aencies 'ere in!ol!ed in the dual policyma(in efforts to satisfy both the parties 6the

US and the #aliban7" #he US became suspicious about the officially%authorised use of the in!estedamount in a(istan for this 'ar, 'hereas the a(istani administration e$pressed its dissatisfactiono!er the economic support from the US, and ultimately the fact that Osama bin Maden 'as (illed in

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a(istan by the US forces 'as a stron point to underpin the US suspicions about the sympathisersof al%Laeda amon the people of a(istan, the intellience aencies and e!en at the o!ernmentle!el"espite the fact that a(istan has prompted its effort to th'art the nuclear proliferation, the Statesepartment still remains suspicious about the success of a(istan5s effort in this connection"Additionally, the other one%(ey clash 'ith the US as a result of this proloned strule aainst

terrorism is the issue of the drone stri(es in FA#A, 'hich is a matter of serious concern for thea(istani ci!ilians more than the administration" #he .o!ernment of a(istan denied at the outsetany role of 8/A in a(istan, but later 'hen the number of stri(es and the resultant causalitiesescalated the o!ernment started condemnin them publicly"

o'e!er, the secret deal bet'een a(istan and the US reardin the drone attac(s 'as reported bya US paper, #he ?ashinton ost, on < October 200&" #he ?ashinton ost reported that there 'asa secret deal bet'een US and a(istan for allo'in these drone attac(s" #his statement 'asdiscarded by the then forein minister of a(istan" /n response to such statements, a(istanre:uested the US to i!e them control o!er drones and pro!ide them re:uired technical trainin andassistance" 9ut the US re-ected this re:uest for fear of lea(ae of information about the militant

tarets" 8oncei!ably, the US does not 'ant to multiply its troubles as it is already concerned aboutthe pre!ious issue concernin a(istan5s reliability of the nuclear command and control system" /tfears the e$tremist roups5 control o!er nu(es in case of any radical ta(eo!er" #his fear spilled o!er'ith the re!elation of the 5AL Khan net'or(5 'ith 5proof5 of the nuclear proliferation acti!ities"Re-ectin all the US concerns, as to its nuclear assets that they may fall in the hands of thee$tremists, a(istan claims a robust command and control system" espite the fact that a(istan has

prompted its effort to th'art the nuclear proliferation, the States epartment still remains suspiciousabout the success of a(istan5s effort in this connection"

#he list of di!erences in the interests of a(istan and the US e$tends to other issues also" #he US(eeps a comprehensi!e and institutionalised relationship 'ith /ndia, co!erin broad fields such aseconomic relations, political dialoues and the military e$chanes" #he US appreciates /ndia5sacti!e democracy and economic and technoloical e$pansion and aims at usin her as acounter'eiht to 8hina"

8hina5s containment policy, under 'hich the US intends to clout the economic and political

de!elopment of the eople5s Republic of 8hina to ma(e it a di!ided and fraile state to (eep on itsheemony in Asia, is a main contendin issue bet'een the US and a(istan"

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?ith reard to this policy, the borderin countries of 8hina are on the US list to be played ascounter'eiht" Follo'in this ob-ecti!e, the US prioritises diplomatic, economic and militaryrelations 'ith these counties" #he main proponents of this US policy are Afhanistan, U+be(istan,#a-i(istan, South Korea, @apan, /ndia and ietnam" a(istan bein a strateic partner of 8hina is outof this US 5rand desin5 for Asia" /t is neither 'illin nor capable of -oinin this lon%term US plan"#he US appreciates /ndia5s acti!e democracy and economic and technoloical e$pansion and aims

at usin her as a counter'eiht to 8hina"Similar to the 8hina containment policy, the US (eeps a deliberate stratey of action aainst /ran as'ell" #he affair of US resentment aainst /ran contains three sub-ects in particular includin /ran5snuclear enrichment policy, the issue concernin protection of the US bases in Afhanistan as 'ell asthe .ulf, and any e$pected aression by /ran aainst /srael" #hese issues upset the a(%USdealins because a(istan5s friendship 'ith /ran is uni:ue in a sense of close historical, cultural,reliious and strateic attachment" a(istan cannot support the anti%/ran policies of the UnitedStates"

#he US resistance to the a(istan%/ran as pipeline pro-ect, 'hich is in a(istan5s national interest,is also a (no'n issue" #he /ran%a(istan as pipeline plan has been stronly opposed by the US"

o'e!er, this pipeline is crucially ad!antaeous for a(istan to deli!er natural as from /ran toa(istan" /n @anuary 2010, the US forced a(istan to :uit this pro-ect and offered her a ne' pro-ectfor li:uefied natural as terminal and importin electricity from #a-i(istan and Afhanistan toa(istan" ?hen a(istan did not abandon the pro-ect, usin another source by means of SaudiArabia, the US made an endea!our aainst this pro-ect" /t 'as reported that Saudi Arabia offered analternate pro-ect to a(istan that included a cash loan and oil facility in case of cancellin the

prolific as pipeline pro-ect 'ith /ran" 9ut, accordin to the a(istani administrationP D/slamabad'ill not i!e in to the US pressures to mothball the pro-ect and 'ill finish the hue pipeline pro-ectat any cost and that the pro-ect 'as in line 'ith the country5s national interest"

espite these facts, it is also an undeniable reality that the a(istan%US relations e!entually dependon the con!erence of their national interests" 9oth in short and lon term, pro!idin each othermutual beneficial opportunities in se!eral fields such as the future of Afhanistan, peace andstability in South Asia and deterrin the threat of terrorism"

#he US depends on a(istan for its A#O supply routes to Afhanistan" Althouh there are othernet'or(s for the transport supply, they are !ery e$pensi!e" >oreo!er, it needs to focus on a(istanfor carryin on the reconciliation process 'ith the #aliban in Afhanistan for peace and stability of

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a(istan and the reion in the post%transition period" /n addition, a(istan is 'orried about the/ndian presence and acti!ities in Afhanistan" #hey belie!e that the /ndian interests in Afhanistanare beyond economic and political spheres centered aainst the interests of a(istan"

E!en then both the countries (eep a number of possibilities for compromise 'ithin theconfiuration of their status and standard" 9ein a superpo'er, both economically and militarily, the

US helps a(istan in bilateral, economic, commercial, technoloical and academic fields, 'hereasa(istan remains an important country due to its strateic location, nu(es and maybe a moderate/slam policy"

#he 'riter is an Assistant rofessorAt the epartment of /nternational Relations,Uni!ersity of Sindh, @amshoro"EmailP /shatTiryahoo"com/shrat Abbasi

+ur 4%ree( Tra!edy/

The situation in &a(istan is no di""erent$ We too witnessed the thenian scene

bein! enacted in our capital with a lot o" political "erment and "reny$



On a day in 3 98, philosopher Socrates stood before a -ury of =00 of his fello'%Atheniansaccused of Drefusin to reconi+e the ods reconi+ed by the state and of Dcorruptin the youth" /ffound uiltyN his penalty could be death" #he trial too( place in the heart of the city 'ith the -urors

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seated on 'ooden benches surrounded by a cro'd of spectators" After hearin the aruments byboth Socrates and his accusers, instead of deliberatin on the merits of the case %% as 'as re:uiredunder the Athenian la' %% the -ury by a !ote of 2&0 to 220 promptly a!e a 5uilty5 !erdict andsentenced him to death"

#he Athenian la' prescribed death by drin(in a cup of poison" Socrates 'ho 'as *0 years old and

'ell%respected by Athenians as their benefactor 'as to be his o'n e$ecutioner" e 'as ta(en to thenearby -ail 'here his sentence 'as to be carried out" lato, the most famous student of Socrates,'as not present at his mentor5s death but (ne' those 'ho 'ere there" e describes the scenethrouh the narrati!e !oice of a fictional character, haedo" #he dialoue ta(es place in Socrates5

prison cell 'here he a'aits his e$ecution"

Socrates is !isited there by his friend 8rito 'ho had made arranements to smule him out ofprison to the safety of e$ile" 9ut Socrates declined 8rito5s offer to escape" #he man 'ho 'as toadminister the poison brouht the cup full of hemloc( mi$ to him and as(ed him to drin( it"haedo5s account oes onP DUp to this moment most of us 'ere able 'ith some decency to hold

bac( our tears, but 'hen 'e sa' him drin(in the poison to the last drop, 'e could restrain

oursel!es no loner"

D/n spite of myself, tears came in floods so / co!ered my face and 'ept %% not for him but at my o'nmisfortune at losin such a man as my friend" 8rito, e!en before me rose and 'ent out 'hen hecould chec( his tears no loner" Apollodorus 'as already steadily 'eepin, and by dryin his eyes,cryin aain and sobbin" e affected e!eryone present e$cept for Socrates himself 'ho said, 5youare strane fello'sN 'hat is 'ron 'ith youH5 #hese 'ords made us ashamed, and 'e stoppedcryin"

As the chill sensation ot to his 'aist, Socrates unco!ered his head and said his last 'ordsP D8rito,'e o'e a rooster to Asclepius" o pay it" on5t foret" DOf course, said 8rito" Do you 'ant tosay anythin elseH #here 'as no reply to this :uestion, but after a 'hile he a!e a sliht stir, and theattendant unco!ered him and e$amined his eyes" #hen 8rito sa' that he 'as dead, he closed hismouth and eyelids" #his 'as the end of our friend, the best, 'isest and most upriht man of any that/ ha!e e!er (no'n"

Socrates 'ho -oined eternity li!ed nearly 2,

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5amnesty5 for all recent e!ents" /t 'as the then RO that Socrates challened" Rather than acceptin'hat he percei!ed as opportunistic po'er%based immorality 'ithin his state, Socrates :uestionedthe collecti!e notion of Dmiht ma(es riht that 'as so rampant in his state" e belie!ed the state'as more important than the rotten Athenian politics" e spo(e the truth and challened the status:uo"

>ore than t'o millennia after his death, Socrates is as rele!ant as e!er" #he .ree(s are alreadynostalic of him" #hey ha!e come to despise their present leaders, mistrust their media and resentthe stern teachins of 9russels bureaucrats" o' they are turnin to the same 'ise man for helpP thesame Athenian 'ho doled out self%help tips 'hile railin aainst the hypocrisies of society and thestate ) and 'hose lessons li!e on more than 2,

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had to be punished"

o sooner did Ladri i!e his last ultimatum shootin heartbeats and pulse rates up, the 5-ury5arri!ed" 8urtains in Ladri5s bulletproof Qcontainer 'ere dra'n and the trial lasted -ust for a coupleof hours" #he !erdict 'as unanimous" Ladri shall be admitted into the inominious Qfraternity thathe had !o'ed to topple" e 'illinly accepted to be his o'n e$ecutioner and -oined the e$clusi!e

club, forin a ne' confiuration of political po'er" Unli(e the real .ree( traedy, all in theQcontainer 'ere seen happy, leefully embracin each other" #he hostae cro'd returned home'ith no chane in siht" #here could not be a more comic end to our Q.ree( traedy"

#he 'riter is a former forein secretaryShamshad Ahmad#he 'riter is a former forein secretary"

Chan!e +n Islamabad/s 4million-man march/

6other o" all uestionsFG

9ow did Imran Ahan mana!e to !ather such a lar!e crowd on +ctober 30,

2012? 9ow did

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#ahirul Ladri manae to (eep tens of thousands for four 'intry nihts in the openH /n each one ofthe abo!e cases my focus is not on the leader but the tens of thousands of a(istanis 'ho undertoo(the effort to be present in those atherins"

?hy 'as there a #ahrir S:uareH Ges, osni >ubara( 'as a dictator for 30 lon years" 9ut 'hy'asn5t there a #ahrir S:uare in SinaporeH After all, Mee Kuan Ge' 'as a dictator 'ho lasted 31

lon years" ?hy 'asn5t there a #ahrir S:uare in >alaysiaH After all, >ahathir >ohamad, althouhelected !ia fi!e consecuti!e rather contro!ersial elections, ruled as a dictator for 22 lon years"Ans'erP A #ahrir S:uare ta(es place only in states 'here there is a hue ap bet'een the prioritiesof the rulers and the needs of the ruled 6'hether the rulers are elected or not is irrele!ant7" ?hy didtens of thousands of a(istanis spend four nihts under free+in open s(ies of /slamabadH o' did/mran Khan manae to ather such a lare cro'd on October 30H o' did r #ahirul Ladri manaeto ather such a lare cro'd on ecember 23H Ans'erP a(istanis yearn for a chane"A political doctrine under 'hich the prime minister can di!ert Rs=0 billion from otherde!elopmental pro-ects to his o'n discretionary fund needs to be chaned"After = years of e$perimentin 'ith different models of o!ernance there no' is a consensus ondemocracy as the model of o!ernance" 9ut an electoral doctrine under 'hich a federal minister can

(eep =1 !ehicles for his personal use needs to be chaned" A political doctrine under 'hich theprime minister can di!ert Rs=0 billion from other de!elopmental pro-ects to his o'n discretionaryfund needs to be chaned" And, an economic doctrine under 'hich /A loses Rs*0 million a day,e!ery day of the year, needs to be chaned"

@ust as( any a(istani, bet'een Khyber and Karachi, these si$ :uestionsP /s a(istan headin in theriht directionH ?ould the assemblies that 'ill be formed after Election 2013 be any different from

past assembliesH o 'e as a nation 'ant to continue 'ith a political doctrine that allo's a ministerin the federal cabinet to (eep =1 official !ehicles for his useH o 'e as a nation 'ant to continue'ith an electoral doctrine that allo's the prime minister to di!ert Rs=0 billion from de!elopment

pro-ects to his discretionary fund -ust before a eneral electionH o 'e as a nation 'ant aneconomic doctrine that allo's /A to lose Rs*0 million a day, e!ery day of the yearH o 'e 'ant anelectoral doctrine that allo's the chief minister of 9alochistan to disburse Rs300 million to each>A -ust before electionsH

?hy can5t the rulin class read the 'ritin on the 'allH Mo and behold, 'e can amend theconstitution in a day then 'hy cant 'e ha!e electoral reforms before the elections that are still

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months a'ayH

#he 'riter is a columnist based in /slamabad" EmailP farru(h1=hotmail"com" #'itterPsaleemfarru(hr Farru(h Saleem

&&&/s H-year e!ime The est een!eG

*iay hutto*, *doctrine o" ictimhood*, and aboe all *democracy is the best

reen!e* with a theory o" political rapprochement as "ollowed by &a(istan

&eople*s &arty 7&&&8 top leadership &anch Aa Tola 7the !an! o" "ie8; the &&&,

&6>-), &6>-=, 6=6 and )& 7and o" course a *"riendly opposition*8 lay

e:posed as those at the helm o" a""airs stay put$



?ith o!ernments in /slamabad, Sindh, Khyber u(htun(h'a, 9alochistan, .ilit%9altistan andA+ad @ammu and Kashmir 6A@K7, they are crac(in -o(es at a funeral 'hile they 'eih theo!ernment5s fi!e%year feats" ?hate!er the e$cuse, if any, one doubts %% 'hate!er they boast of thefi!e years of democracy %% corruption tops the list plus the most%discussed and moaned po'er crisis

bein faced by the country"

ational Accountability 9ureau 6A97 8hairman Admiral 6retd7 Fasih 9u(hari5s latest disclosurethat a(istan loses up to Rs & billion a day in corruption has e$ceeded e!en the other'ise massi!e

corruption fiures by #ransparency /nternational a(istan 6#/7, 'hich sees Rs &,=00 billioncorruption durin the first four years of the tenure led by 6sac(ed7 prime minister Gousaf Ra+a.ilani" Get the per%day%corruption of Rs & billion as pointed out by the A9 chairman means

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corruption for Rs 2" trillion in one year and Rs 1

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aainst the US dollar"

o', the %led po'er forces face a erculean tas( of a I= billion paybac( to the /nternational>onetary Fund 6/>F7" #he forein e$chane reser!es 'ere I11"usharraf be:ueathed the po'er crises as all and sundry inthe o!ernment bemoaned and cried hoarse" #he >usharraf saa continues e!en no' because si$ to1& hours of proloned incessant load%sheddin has paralysed economic acti!ities in a(istan" #he'orst%affected is the un-ab" >any belie!e since the has not its o!ernment in the pro!ince, itis punishin the people" For the last fi!e years the un-ab has been the centre of aitation by theeneral public o!er lac( of electricity" ?hether it is >ultan, Faisalabad or Mahore the people too( tothe streets aainst the menace of load%sheddin fre:uently durin summer e!ery year" #heo!ernment failed in o!ercomin the circular debt" #he o!ernment o'es Rs

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Sept 2012 I"2

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in drastic chanes in the security%related perceptions, concerns, policies and mechanisms of statesacross the lobe" Amon other reions, the South Asian security scenario has also underone ma-orchanes durin the last decade" /n a(istan, the internal security issues rose to a danerous le!eland, hence, assumed reater prominence than e$ternal security threats"

#he South Asian reion has al'ays been under the influence of e$tra%reional po'ers" #he interplay

of their strateic and economic interests considerably marred bilateral relations bet'een states inSouth Asia, particularly a(istan and /ndia, hence posin challenes to reional security" At thereional le!el, ta(in con!entional 6e$ternal7 security threats to a(istan into consideration, itseastern neihbour /ndia has lon been rearded as a potential threat in !ie' of the critical e:uationthe t'o countries ha!e e$perienced durin the past si$ decades" And a(istan5s 'estern borderremains porous and !ulnerable to !iolence"

A certain le!el of deterrence has been maintained 'ith /ndia" o'e!er, 'ith the chanin reionalsecurity scenario, especially in 'a(e of 'ar aainst terrorism in Afhanistan, the a(istan%/ndiae:uation turned e!en more se!ere increasin the !ulnerability of the deterrence" espite thecomposite dialoue and other peace o!ertures, a number of territorial and other issues remain

unsettled bet'een the t'o countries that continue to pose threats to security" >oreo!er, there isal'ays a possibility of conflict escalation in the 'a(e of periodic firin incidents across the Mine of8ontrol 6Mo87"

8onsiderin internal security threatsN perceptions and understandin on the Dmost rie!ous of thee$istin threats differ amon different security and strateic analysts" #he e$istin internal securitythreats may include sectarian !iolence, ethnic di!ide 6includin mo!ements in 9alochistan7, smallarms proliferation and abo!e all terrorism" #he opinion of a number of political analysts !aries 'ithreard to 'hich problem is the most serious and 'hich should be addressed first" a(istan is a

pluralistic societyN ho'e!er, internal problems and e$ternal influences 'rec(ed the !ery fabric of itssociety" As a(istan faces the se!ere fallout of the 'ar aainst terrorism in its 'estern neihbour, itsinternal security deteriorates radually"

#he leacy of partition, economic and political instability, fraile democracy, feudal trends,corruption, illiteracy, unemployment, radicali+ation and polari+ation of a(istani society, e$tremismand intolerance may be rearded as the root%causes of internal security problemsN the e$ternalfactors considerably manipulated the internal problems of a(istan" As a conse:uence, the internalsecurity situation is e$tremely fraile as a(istan faces ra!e internal security threats, especiallyterrorism" #here has been an unprecedented increase in terror incidents in a(istan durin the lastdecade, 'hich in turn posed multifaceted challenes to the counterterrorism stratey"

#he US%led 'ar aainst terrorism in Afhanistan deteriorated reional security" a(istan no' facesanother challene of dealin 'ith drone attac(s inside its territory" On the other hand, /ndia hasincreased its influence in Afhanistan see(in a reater role in reional politics, follo'in theannounced 'ithdra'al of US troops from Afhanistan in 201

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the a(istan Army rearded internal security threats as Dsub%con!entional threats and stated in ane' military doctrineP Dthe onoin acti!ities of #aliban militants in the resti!e tribal reions andunabated terrorist attac(s on o!ernment installations in ma-or cities are posin a real threat toa(istan5s security"

o'e!er, irector .eneral for /nter%Ser!ices ublic Relations 6/SR7 >a-or .eneral Asim Saleem9a-'a cateorically saidP D#he Army prepares for all forms of threats" Sub%con!entional threat is areality and is a part of a threat matri$ faced by our country" 9ut it doesn5t mean that thecon!entional threat has receded" #o some people, the statement may appear a paradim shift in ourmilitary strateyN the con!entional threats 'ould remain as the (ey concern to the army"

#he internal security is rearded as of paramount importance to e!ery country" a(istan has beenunder se!ere criticism by other countries and international aencies o!er the deterioratin internalsecurity situation and is !ie'ed as Dunsafe by a number of countries" /t has also been criticised asDe$porter of terrorism"

#o allay all the misperceptions and alleations a(istan faced o!er the years it needs to adopt acomprehensi!e stratey that encompasses all rele!ant sections of the state and society" As a(istanseneral election nears, the ne' o!ernment 'ould be re:uired to 'or( for internal security" And fora stable and prosperous a(istan, internal security is imperati!e" Althouh e$ternal and internalsecurity threats in a(istan are tied toether, they are re:uired to be dealt 'ith by separatestrateies"

abiha .ul is a researcher and analyst on international affairs and a !isitin faculty member at theepartment of /nternational Relations, Uni!ersity of Karachi"

abiha .ul

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ane or oon? Inesti!ation "or @air Trial ill,

2012

&recisely, the law has not success"ully trans"ormed the e:tant practice o"in"ormal re!ime o" *interception* or *sureillance* to "ormal re!ime$ In reality, a

dual "ormally in"ormal mechanism has been proided, which will ultimately

proide a le!al coer to ille!al practices$



E!eryone has an opinion to offer on the ne'ly%passed la' styled as the /n!estiation for Fair #rialAct, 2012 6/F#7" Some call it intrusi!e because it is desined to circum!ent the riht to pri!acy asen!isioned in Article 1< of the 8onstitution of a(istanN others thin( that it is symbolic of the factthat the country is united aainst terrorism and that 'ith the passae of the bill into the la', morecon!ictions 'ill be recorded aainst terrorists" From a practitioner5s !ie'point, both !ie's are 'ayoff the mar(" #he reality and practice in !oue belie both"

#he first and the foremost is the point that intellience aencies are already usin 5interception5 and5sur!eillance5 and ha!e ne!er really bothered to sub-ect themsel!es to any formal o!ersihtmechanism in!ol!in -udiciary" #hose, indeed, allude to leal pro!isions 'hich 'ere heretofore

absent" #his may be considered a step for'ard, but a careful readin of the la' sho's that, in fact, itis a case of 5one step for'ard and t'o steps bac(5" #he la' as it has been passed pro!ides for t'otypes of 'arrantsP one, a -udicial 'arrant issued by a -ude 6under Section 11 of /F#7 and t'o, aninterim 'arrant issued by the e$ecuti!e head 6under Section 1< of /F#7" #he interim 'arrant can beissued for se!en days in cases of urency and has to be put for appro!al to a -ude" /n our criminal

-ustice system, issuin 'arrants has been a -udicial function and throuh /F#, the -udicial po'er'ill be e$ercised by e$ecuti!e, 'hich miht run aainst Article 1*= of the 8onstitution" Acon!enient ruse to defeat the la' is that an interim 'arrant is issued for fi!e to si$ days 6less thanse!en7 and then 'ithdra'n and, later on, re%issued"

recisely, the la' has not successfully transformed the e$tant practice of informal reime of5interception5 or 5sur!eillance5 to formal reime" /n reality, a dual formally informal mechanism hasbeen pro!ided, 'hich 'ill ultimately pro!ide a leal co!er to illeal practices"

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Secondly, the la' is utterly abstract" #he concept of 5applicant5 6and not of /n!estiation Officer7 hasbeen introduced" #he 5applicant5 has been defined in Section 3 in !ery 'ide terms and it includesorani+ations, 'hich are a product of e$ecuti!e orders and not of statutes" For e$ample, no la'authori+es constitution of 5Field /ntellience Unit5, yet it has been included in the 5applicant5cateory" Mi(e'ise, Section 1& pro!ides for ser!in of the 'arrant on the 5ser!ice pro!ider5 throuh5esinated Aency or 9oard5 and none else" ?ithout any notification of a esinated Aency, the

process cannot be ser!ed and e$ecuted" 9esides, the pro!ision pro!ides a cushion to already o!erly%protected 5ser!ice pro!iders5 to 'ard off any leal order pro!ided throuh any other process" Fore$ample,Section < of the 8riminal rocedure 8ode 1&& authori+es a court or a police officer to ma(e thedocuments or other thins a!ailable by anyone 'hen re:uired and necessary for the purpose ofin!estiation" 9ut the la' has not anticipated ho' the situation 'ill be dealt 'ith"#he la' as it has been passed pro!ides for t'o types of 'arrantsP one, a -udicial 'arrant issued bya -ude 6under Section 11 of /F#7 and t'o, an interim 'arrant issued by the e$ecuti!e head 6underSection 1< of /F#7"#hirdly, the la' does not contribute to'ards obtainin la'ful con!ictions" #he /F# 'as introduced

in the 'a(e of ac:uittal of terrorists 'anted in the hih%profile terrorism cases and it is e$pected

that it 'ill address the leal snas affectin prosecutions" #he e$pectation is not !ery 'ell%placedfor an ob!ious reason that in many such cases no electronic e!idence 'as produced" ad it been

produced and admitted, it 'ould ha!e al'ays been open to rebuttal" #he only step for'ard in /F# isthat the 5e$pert5 'ho retrie!es the electronic e!idence has been brouht at par 'ith an e$pert underSection =10 of 8riminal rocedure 8ode" 9ut still a smart la'yer may manae to brin the e$pert tocourtroom for cross%e$amination on the rounds of necessity and for the sa(e of -ustice" #he e$pertcan only uarantee the interity of electronic e!idence, but the 'hole case of prosecution must becorroborated by electronic e!idence" /n reality, the 5aencies5 arrest terrorists and hand them to

police to prosecute them" #he information, trust and e!idence aps bet'een the t'o orani+ationsresult in failed prosecutions"

Fourthly, the /F# is !ery narro' in its application" /t only pro!ides for issuance of 'arrants of

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5interception5 or 5sur!eillance5 in a !ery limited number of cases that are reistered under specificla's, 'hich are outlined in a schedule to /F#" #hese la's do not include Anti%>oney MaunderinAct, 2010, ational Accountability 9ureau Ordinance, 1 and some important offences ofa(istan enal 8ode, 1&0" #he narro' application implies limited use of the la'" #he la'soutlined in the schedule also focus primarily on e$ternal security and military perspecti!es" #heinternal security dimension, 'hich focuses on protection of life and property of a citi+en and 'hich

ser!es as a conduit bet'een la'%enforcement and military operation is clearly missin" /n other'ords, the lin(ae bet'een crime and terrorism is absent" 8rime and terrorism are ine$orably lin(ed'ith each other" /ts e$clusion culminates into a faltered stratey and an inchoate la'"Fifthly, Section 23 of /F# is the reminder of the fact that the la' is not to strenthen the primaryla'%enforcement aency i"e" police" As al'ays, police 'ill be chipped in at a later stae only toresult in aps of information, trust and e!idence" Section 23617 calls for reproduction hereP#he only step for'ard in /F# is that the Qe$pert 'ho retrie!es the electronic e!idence has been

brouht at par 'ith an e$pert under Section =10 of 8riminal rocedure 8ode"DReistration of a caseP #he e!idence includin the data, information, and material collected orrecei!ed pursuant to the 'arrant shall be e$amined by the officer authori+ed by the applicant in this

behalf and if he is able to form an opinion, that the same discloses elements of commission,

harbourin, abettin or conspirin or attemptin to commit any schedule offence, he mayimmediately cause reistration of an F/R and in that e!ent he shall hand o!er the e!idence includinmaterial, information, and data to the concerned in!estiation officer so that it forms part of therecord for the purpose of in!estiation and prosecution"

#he problem 'ith 5handin o!er5 is too serious and is ob!ious" /t has been the root%cause of manyac:uittals in hih%profile terrorism cases, 'hich has brouht embarrassment to la'%enforcementaencies in a(istan" /f anyone is considered competent enouh to et the 'arrant issued for5interception5 or 5sur!eillance5, then 'hy he is not ready to face the court and be himself thein!estiator in the case" Authority must be coupled 'ith responsibility" Anyone 'ishin to en-oy theauthority should do so 'ith reciprocal responsibility" #he duality of the system also e$poses citi+ensto breach their riht to pri!acy"

Finally, the Statement of Ob-ects and Reasons spells out that the /F# is primarily a la' on5pre!enti!e5 side" #he statement reads in its fourth recitalPD?hereas, in a(istan, the la's and the criminal -ustice system are not tailored for or eared

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to'ards pre%emptin and pre!entin acts of crime or terror, and the act of crime or terror has toactually occur for reistration of an F/R and thereafter the police ta(e coni+ance" /t is e$pected thatthe la' 'ould pro!ide a leal frame'or( for aencies to la'fully conduct the sur!eillance of anindi!idual 'ho is li(ely to or suspected of enain in preparation to conduct an act of crime orterror"

/nstead of empo'erin police 'ith leal po'ers on pre!enti!e side, the /F# is an attempt toformali+e the role of aencies in in!estiations" Under the scheme of ad-udication in criminal cases,any e!idence collected prior to the reistration of an F/R is not i!en due heed at trial and thouhthe -udes consider it, they seldom accord !alue to such e!idence" #hus it has criminal

-urisprudence and a due process of constitutional obliation 6under Article 10%A7 of the 8onstitutionhas de!eloped that it is li(ely that /F# 'ill not pro!e itself to be a boon for the rule of la'"Kamran Adil

The &a(-India Thaw and >oC Tension

The peace process was still bleedin! "rom the wounds o" the 6umbai terror

attac(s that iolation o" cease"ire on the >oC has put a serious uestion mar( on

the "uture o" the on-!oin! peace process between the two countries$



#he incidents across the Mine of 8ontrol 6Mo87 in early @anuary ha!e e$posed the !ulnerability ofthe so%called irre!ersibility of the peace process bet'een a(istan and /ndia" #he peace process 'as

still bleedin from the 'ounds of the >umbai terror attac(s that !iolation of ceasefire on the Mo8has put a serious :uestion mar( on the future of the on%oin peace process bet'een the t'ocountries" #he peoples of the t'o countries in particular and the 'orld in eneral are 'orried about

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the e!ents still to unfold in future" /t 'as at midniht bet'een @anuary = and that the /ndian Armyattac(ed inside the Mo8 on the A@K side, (illin one a(istani soldier and 'oundin another" #he/ndian side came up 'ith a heinous alleation aainst the a(istan Army of beheadin andmutilatin bodies of t'o /ndian soldiers" a(istan ho'e!er denied the chare" #he /ndian Armyonce aain !iolated ceasefire across the Mo8 and (illed another soldier, >ohy%ud%in"

#he blame ame once aain ot inited and the t'o sides induled in the infamous practice ofsummonin each other5s diplomats" #he entire ood'ill, if any, enerated throuh the resumption ofthe dialoue process brouht bac( to s:uare throuh unnecessary statements and irresponsiblemedia hype"#he moti!ated hype

9efore the current Mo8 flare%up, elhi 'as abu++ 'ith protests in their 5red +one5 on the rapeincident and media 'as absolutely focused on the scope and the intensity of the protest" #heincidents at the Mo8 pro!ided a di!ersion and the /ndian media started indulin in an unnecessaryhype" #he story of 5decapitation5 and 5mutilation5 of the /ndian soldiers bodies lured reno'nedanchors of the # channel in /ndia to di!ert and pro!ide to their !ie'ers a ne' spice, the a(istan%

bashin as usual" #he enraed /ndian Army 8hief, .eneral 9i(ram Sinh, duly informed the mediaof orderin /ndian soldiers to remain on the offensi!e" #he forein minister of a(istan labelled/ndians of 'ar%monerin, 'hile she 'as in the United States" ?hile the soldiers 'ere !iolatin thesanctity of the ceasefire and the media 'as creatin hypes, the :uest for peace 6Aman (i Asha7 'asdesperately ho!erin around inside the cae of the a(istan%/ndia traditional hatred"a(istan has not left the path of sanity and Forein >inister ina Rabbani Khar has proposed theforein minister%le!el tal(s bet'een the t'o countries for de%escalatin the situation"&a(istan*s perspectie

From the !ery first incident of the ceasefire !iolation by the /ndian side, a(istan follo'ed thecourse prescribed and practised throuh the established mechanisms of handlin such situations"#he irector .eneral of >ilitary Operations 6.>O7 of a(istan Army spo(e to his /ndiancounterpart and as(ed for halt to the recurrence of such incidents" #he /ndian side ob!iously refusedto accept such a esture 'herein they 'ere 5accused5 of (illin a a(istani soldier" #hen the /ndianside came up 'ith a story of their soldiers bein 5mutilated5 and 5decapitated5" 9efore /ndia could sellits story abroad, the /ndians started contradictin each other" #he Mo8 is on hih mountains 'hichare sno'%co!ered and far beyond the approach of common citi+ens" #he alleations and thecounter%alleations emanate from the t'o respecti!e armies" #he army%fed information promptedthe t'o o!ernments to summon each other5s diplomats" #he media 'as lured to create hype on the

basis of information from the same source" An independent in!estiation into the t'o opposinclaims seemed imperati!e" And that is 'hy a(istan officially proposed an impartial in!estiation

throuh the United ations >ilitary Obser!er .roup for /ndia and a(istan 6U>O./7" Forob!ious reasons, /ndia refused to accept the suestion"

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/ndia is no' :uestionin the mandate of U>O./ and its rele!ance to the Mo8 crisis" /ndia thin(s

Dthe role of the United ations >ilitary Obser!ers .roup in /ndia a(istan 6U>O./7, 'hichmonitors the ceasefire alon the Mine of 8ontrol in the disputed Kashmir, has been o!erta(en by the1*2 bilateral Simla areement" #o /ndia, the U>O./ had been put in place to super!ise theceasefire line as a result of the 1O./ remains in!alid"On the top of the impediments to bilateral trade lies the decades%old mistrust bet'een the t'ocountries"On the other side, a(istan belie!es that Do bilateral areement bet'een /ndia and a(istan haso!erta(en or affected the role or leality of the O./ andthe .roup5s mandate remained Dfully !alid, rele!ant and operati!e" #he a(istan perspecti!eremains !indicated because of the fact that both /ndia and a(istan are hostin the U>O./"

a(istan has not left the path of sanity and Forein >inister ina Rabbani Khar has proposed theforein minister%le!el tal(s bet'een the t'o countries for de%escalatin the situation" #he /ndiansha!e not re-ected the offer"

International response

#he 'orld5s ma-or capitals ha!e sharply reacted to the deterioratin situation alon the Mo8 andha!e been demandin immediate de%escalation" ?ashinton, Mondon, aris, 9erlin etc reactedsharply and ured for restraint sho'n from the t'o sides" #he United States in particular has been

prompt in urin the t'o countries to sho' respect for ceasefire" Kno'ledeable sources belie!ethat 'ith the risin tensions across the Mo8, US Ambassador to /slamabad Richard Olson discussedat lenth 'ith his host authorities and similarly the US Ambassador to e' elhi"

ancy @" o'ell discussed 'ith her host authorities the need to de%escalate on the Mo8" 8allinupon the t'o countries to de%escalate, the United States has consistently been as(in the t'ocountries to et enaed themsel!es, thereby rulin out any chances of mediation" #he /ndian side

ne!er li(es outsiders to mediate bet'een a(istan and /ndia and the US miht not li(e to -eopardiseits ne' found friendship 'ith /ndia"

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Implications on the &a(-India relations

#he incidents across the Mine of 8ontrol ha!e certainly created a 5pause5 in bilateral relations"/mplementation of the ne' !isa areement not'ithstandin, the trade normalisation is sufferinsuffocation" #he first !ictim of the Mo8 incidents is cancellation of a(istan5s 8ommerce >inister>a(hdoom Amin Fahim5s !isit to /ndia" >r Fahim 'as in!ited by his /ndian counterpart Anand

Sharma to attend the .lobal artnership Summit, to be held in late @anuary at Ara" a(istan hasalready con!eyed its 'illinness to attend the summit" #heir meetin alon 'ith t'o commercesecretaries 'ould ha!e pro!ided an opportunity to mo!e for'ard, e!en if by an inch"

#he other pendin issue of the rant of the >ost%Fa!oured ation 6>F7 status to /ndia could ha!eonce aain been discussed" a(istan announced and repeatedly assured /ndia and the international

community to rant the >F status by ecember 31, 2012 but it could not come up to the promise"Officially, it is stated that the consultation process 'ithin the sta(eholders is not yet completed" 9utinsiders belie!e that the ariculturist lobby in the country is !ehemently opposin any suchdecision" #he farmin community belie!es that i!en the hih price of inputs and scarcity of 'ateras 'ell as po'er, the ariculture products of a(istan cannot compete 'ith the /ndians in terms ofthe pricin mechanism" Similarly, the automobile manufacturin sector is not feelin at ease andthen is the discomfort of te$tile and other sectors"

#he issue of the on%#ariff 9arriers hamperin ro'th of a(istan5s e$ports to /ndia is anotherma-or irritation" a(istan has consistently been callin upon /ndia to remo!e its non%tariff barriers"#he eneral perception in a(istan has been that despite the rant of an >F status to a(istan by

/ndia, the bilateral trade has been in fa!our of /ndia" o' /ndia, for its part, has areed to e$amineits non%tariff barriers" #o promote trade both tariff and non%tariff barriers 6#9s7 need to bereducedBremo!ed" #he t'o o!ernments established a ?or(in .roup 6?.7 specifically dedicatedto address and resol!e the clearly identified sector%specific barriers to trade" #he ?. comprisedtechnical e$perts and representati!es of reulatory bodies directly concerned 'ith the clearlyidentified barriers"

#he t'o countries ha!e tra!elled a lon to aree on normalisation" o'e!er, some serious issuesstill remain unresol!ed" On the top of the impediments to bilateral trade lies the decade%old mistrust

bet'een the t'o countries" #he mistrust emanatin basically from the inability of the t'o countriesin resol!in the disputes li(e Kashmir and others has ne!er let creation of a cooperati!e atmosphere

bet'een the t'o countries" /n order to build up confidence, dispel misunderstandins and allay anymisapprehensions, it is essential that o!ernments in both the countries support the businesscommunities in promotion of a bilateral trade" #he European Union 6EU7 and ASEA are e$amples

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of the successful trade diplomacy for peace and de!elopment" #he t'o countries must learn tocontrol odd incidents li(e !iolation of the ceasefire across the Mine of 8ontrol"Shau(at iracha

End!ame in "!hanistan Implications and

Way "orward

The withdrawal o" 5' "orces has special si!ni"icance "or 'outh sia in !eneral

and &a(istan in particular$ This article loo(s at issues "rom di""erent an!les with

a lo!ical and prudent solution which, i" implemented, would ensure peace and

security in the re!ion$



#he attac( on ?orld #rade 8enter in September 2001 prompted a bloody era of 'ar, 'hichenulfed both Afhanistan and a(istan, continued for o!er a decade" /t is ho'e!er set to end inecember 201< after the 'ithdra'al of troops from Afhanistan by the US and A#O" #he hunt%

-ourney of Osama 9in Maden that bean from the mountains of #ora 9ora ended in his assassinationdurin the Abbottabad operation in >ay 2011"

#he 'ithdra'al of US forces has special sinificance for South Asia in eneral and a(istan inparticular" Americas a(%Afhan policy 200 'as meant to destroy, dismantle and defeat the al%Laeda but it failed, and no' America appears to be tryin its face%sa!in" First, 'e must distinuish

bet'een the al%Laeda and #aliban 6/slam

jwt Feb 2013.pdf

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