Just Jobs for Growth and Stability Just Jobs for Growth and Stability Global Employment Trends and Global Employment Trends and Employment Trends in MENA and Employment Trends in MENA and Egypt Egypt D. Schmidt D. Schmidt Employment Specialist Employment Specialist ILO Decent Work Team for North Africa ILO Decent Work Team for North Africa
Just Jobs for Growth and Stability. Global Employment Trends and Employment Trends in MENA and Egypt D. Schmidt Employment Specialist ILO Decent Work Team for North Africa. Part 1: Global Employment Trends 2011: The Challenge of a Jobs Recovery. Key findings of GET 2011. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Just Jobs for Growth and StabilityJust Jobs for Growth and Stability
Global Employment Trends and Global Employment Trends and Employment Trends in MENA and Employment Trends in MENA and EgyptEgypt
D. SchmidtD. Schmidt
Employment SpecialistEmployment Specialist
ILO Decent Work Team for North AfricaILO Decent Work Team for North Africa
Part 1:Part 1:Global Employment Trends 2011: Global Employment Trends 2011:
The Challenge of a Jobs RecoveryThe Challenge of a Jobs Recovery
Key findings of GET Key findings of GET 20112011
i.i. Economic recovery has not been matched by a comparable Economic recovery has not been matched by a comparable employment recoveryemployment recovery
Divergent paths: developed versus developing economiesDivergent paths: developed versus developing economies
iii.iii. Growing number of discouraged workers, particularly Growing number of discouraged workers, particularly affecting youthaffecting youth
iv.iv. Pressure on employment quality, lag in recovery in wagesPressure on employment quality, lag in recovery in wages
v.v. Slowed progress in reducing vulnerable employment and Slowed progress in reducing vulnerable employment and working povertyworking poverty
vi.vi. Continued economic growth in 2011, yet downside risks Continued economic growth in 2011, yet downside risks predominate and unemployment will remain highpredominate and unemployment will remain high
Global employmentGlobal employmentSteep declines in many developed economies mar global increase
Global unemploymentGlobal unemploymentUnemployment remains elevated
Global unemploymentGlobal unemployment
205 million unemployed in 2010, up 27.6 million 205 million unemployed in 2010, up 27.6 million since 2007since 2007
Projected global unemployment of 203.3 million Projected global unemployment of 203.3 million in 2011.in 2011.
Unemployment remains elevated in the Unemployment remains elevated in the Developed Economies and EU, Central and Developed Economies and EU, Central and South-Eastern Europe, Latin America and South-Eastern Europe, Latin America and Caribbean and North Africa regions.Caribbean and North Africa regions.
Discouragement hides additional “unemployed”Discouragement hides additional “unemployed” Increase in part-time workIncrease in part-time work
Developed economies account for most of unemployment increase
Pressure on employment qualityPressure on employment quality
Global output per worker declined by 1.4% in Global output per worker declined by 1.4% in 2009, grew by 3.1% in 20102009, grew by 3.1% in 2010
Global real monthly wages rose by 0.7 Global real monthly wages rose by 0.7 percent in 2009, down from 0.8 percent percent in 2009, down from 0.8 percent growth in 2008 and 2.2 percent in 2007.growth in 2008 and 2.2 percent in 2007.
The delay in the labour market recovery is The delay in the labour market recovery is seen with the sluggish resumption of wage seen with the sluggish resumption of wage growth in many countriesgrowth in many countries
Global labour productivity fell as employment increased
Employment by sectorEmployment by sectorIndustrial employment hit hardest
Vulnerable Vulnerable employmentemployment
Stagnating progress in reducing vulnerable employment
Working poverty (USD 1.25 a Working poverty (USD 1.25 a day)day)
Slowed progress in reducing working poverty
Part 2:Part 2:
Labour Markets in the MENA regionLabour Markets in the MENA region
Labour market situation Labour market situation prior to the crises and prior to the crises and thereafter in MENAthereafter in MENA Slightly positive trends before the crisis were Slightly positive trends before the crisis were
interrupted during the crisis but not reversedinterrupted during the crisis but not reversed Key challenges remain the same:Key challenges remain the same:
– High unemployment rates (10.1%), High unemployment rates (10.1%), especially for women (15.8%) and youth especially for women (15.8%) and youth (24.8%, 21.5% male and 33% female)(24.8%, 21.5% male and 33% female)
– Unemployment across all levels of income Unemployment across all levels of income and educationand education
– Lack of high quality jobs (persistence of Lack of high quality jobs (persistence of vulnerable employment (37% in 2009) and vulnerable employment (37% in 2009) and working poverty at USDollar 2 a day working poverty at USDollar 2 a day (especially in North Africa with 1/3 of total (especially in North Africa with 1/3 of total employment)employment)
Labour market situation Labour market situation prior to the crises and prior to the crises and thereafter in MENAthereafter in MENAKey challenges remain the same:Key challenges remain the same:
– High share of public sector employment (1/3)High share of public sector employment (1/3)– Limited growth in productivityLimited growth in productivity– Lack of social dialogueLack of social dialogue– Lack of social protectionLack of social protection– Skills issuesSkills issues
MismatchMismatch Lack of investment in workersLack of investment in workers Work attitudesWork attitudes Employer’s attitudesEmployer’s attitudes
Youth unemploymentYouth unemployment
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Developed Economies & European Union
Central & South Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS
East Asia
South East Asia & the Pacific
South Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
Middle East
North Africa
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010
Employment-to-Employment-to-population ratiopopulation ratio
Productivity and productivity growthProductivity and productivity growth
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010
Source: Montenegro and Hirn (2009)
Part 3: Part 3: EgyptEgypt The greatest threat to Egypt’s economic and social The greatest threat to Egypt’s economic and social
progress is its tremendous lack of decent work progress is its tremendous lack of decent work opportunities for young people (aged 15 to 29)opportunities for young people (aged 15 to 29)
Unemployment rate: 14 % for young men Unemployment rate: 14 % for young men 45 % for young women45 % for young women And: Young people have to accept low productivity, low And: Young people have to accept low productivity, low
paid and insecure jobs, far below their capabilities. paid and insecure jobs, far below their capabilities.
Some more factsSome more facts A rapidly increasing labour force - 700,000 new entrants every year translating into A rapidly increasing labour force - 700,000 new entrants every year translating into
high unemployment rates especially for young people and women and across all levels high unemployment rates especially for young people and women and across all levels of education. of education.
Unemployment appears across all income groups and educational levelsUnemployment appears across all income groups and educational levels Roughly 3 out of 10 people working in Egypt occupy a vulnerable job Roughly 3 out of 10 people working in Egypt occupy a vulnerable job Agriculture accounted for almost one third of all employed people in 2009. The largest Agriculture accounted for almost one third of all employed people in 2009. The largest
sector is the service sector that accounts for roughly 45 per cent of overall sector is the service sector that accounts for roughly 45 per cent of overall employment. employment.
High share of public sector employment High share of public sector employment Limited growth in productivityLimited growth in productivity Poor quality of education systems including of vocational training– Poor quality of education systems including of vocational training– Non-conducive environment for MSMEsNon-conducive environment for MSMEs Mismanaged migration Mismanaged migration Limited existence of solid analysis of labour markets and of labour market policies Limited existence of solid analysis of labour markets and of labour market policies Low wage and ridiculous minimum wage Low wage and ridiculous minimum wage Weak Social Dialogue Weak Social Dialogue Limited social protection Limited social protection Non functioning employment servicesNon functioning employment services Etc.... Etc....
• Focus on macro-economic indicators •Job creation is lacking behind population growth • Skills produced often do not match labour market needs• Expectations of young people and enterprises do not match• The matching process between supply and demand is not working• Not many young people are engaged in self-employment• The responsible Ministry (Ministry of Manpower and Migration) is not in a strong enough position to fulfil its mandate• Interventions have often been fragmented and not Interlinked •Partnerships in youth employment related areas are not working well, neither at the national level, nor at the regional or local level• Labour market institutions lack capacity•...
Root causesRoot causes
MATCHING PROCESS
Social Dialogue
Social Protection
Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention