Citywire Private Client Manager Retreat 2012 May 2012 Conservative multi-asset investing Thursday 17 th May – Friday 18 th May 2012 Institutional investors and advisors only Presented by: Miles Geldard – Fund Manager Louis Wood – Business Development Director, UK Wealth Management FOR PROFESSIONAL AUDIENCES ONLY. NOT FOR RETAIL INVESTORS.
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Citywire Private Client Manager Retreat 2012
May 2012
Conservative multi-asset investing
Thursday 17th May – Friday 18th May 2012
Institutional investors and advisors only
Presented by:
Miles Geldard – Fund Manager
Louis Wood – Business Development Director, UK Wealth Management
FOR PROFESSIONAL AUDIENCES ONLY. NOT FOR RETAIL INVESTORS.
The problem for many funds during the previous decade was… too much in equities
Will the problem in this decade be… too much in bonds?
Source: Bloomberg, 31.03.89 to 31.12.11.
Bonds should come with a warning label
Warren BuffettReal interest rates are -2.2%
Flexibility to move between asset classes
Where absolute return sits within the investment universe
3
Target Risk
Target Return
Money Market & Liquidity Funds
Lower Risk Absolute Return
Funds
Traditional Gov’t Bond Funds
Corporate Bond Funds
Traditional Equity & Higher Risk Absolute Return Funds
High Yield & Emerging Equity
Funds
Diversified core investments
Aggressive funds enhancing portfolio returns
Cash reserves & cautious section of portfolio
Absolute return can be a complementary fit with traditional investments
Jupiter Strategic Total Return (STR)
Multi-asset strategy that has evolved since 1998
Global multi-asset portfolio with focus on capital growth
Seeking cash +3% over a rolling 3 year basis*
Target volatility <5%
Wide opportunity set of direct investments
4
Global Multi-Asset
PortfolioConvertibles
Equities
Corporate bonds
Money markets
Currency
Sovereign bonds
*Fund Manager aim
The portfolio managers
Managed multi-asset portfolios for 14 years
Previously head of strategic and tactical asset allocation at JP Morgan
Proven track record in bonds, currencies, equities and convertibles
Hands-on experience working in Asia, Africa, Middle East and Europe
Industry recognition: Sauren gold medal winners 2009 and 2011 (Germany)
Proven team with long experience in different regions and markets
5
Fund Manager:
Lee Manzi
Head of Team & Fund Manager:
Miles Geldard
Past performance should not be seen as a guide to the future. The awards detailed above were based on the managers’ past performance figures which are a representation of the fund manager’s experience and are not necessarily indicative of the potential performance of the Jupiter Strategic Total Return SICAV or Jupiter Strategic Reserve UT.
Source: Bloomberg in USD. Past performance should not be seen as a guide to the future. The JF Pacific Income fund was not a UCITS scheme, and therefore not subject to the same regulatory framework as the Jupiter Global Fund. The performance figures of these funds are shown as a representation of the fund manager’s experience and are not necessarily indicative of the potential performance of the Jupiter Strategic Total Return SICAV.
6
Dec 98 Dec 99 Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
JPM Pacific Balanced / JF Pacific Income Fund 122.22 MSCI AC Pacific 30.48
% G
row
thPortfolio management process has evolved over 14 years
JPM Pacific Balanced Fund (previously named JF Pacific Income Fund)
1999 % 2000 % 2001 % 2002 % 2003 %
Fund 44.8 -1.5 9.3 2.6 30.8
MSCI Pacific 57.6 -25.8 -22.1 -8.9 39.8
7
Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2.5
1.6
Jupiter - JGF Strategic Total Return I Acc EUR in EU 2.5 EURIBOR 1M TR in EU 1.6
Fund Return Cash Benchmark Fund Volatility Max. Drawdown
2005 6.8% 2.2% 1.9% 1.3%
2006 – March 0.4% 0.6% 2.9% 1.0%
2007 6.2% 4.2% 2.1% 1.2%
2008 0.9% 4.5% 2.1% 2.7%
2009 – November 4.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
2011 0.4% 1.2% 2.0% 1.2%
2012 – 31 March 1.7% 0.2% 2.1% 0.8%
Fund volatility since inception: 2.1%
Jupiter Strategic Total Return
Strategy track record
Track record of low volatility and minimizing drawdowns
Note: Funds shown are JPMorgan Global Capital Preservation 2005-March 2006, RWC Strategic Reserve 2007-November 2009, Jupiter Strategic Total Return 2011 - Source: Jupiter / FE, I Share Class (EUR), gross income reinvested, net of fees from 01.10.10 to 31.03.12. Past performance should not be seen as a guide to the future.
Fund manager support and idea sharing
Speed of decision making and flexibility within global fund manager
Jupiter is a highly regarded and established firm in UK since 1985
Substantial employee ownership aligns our interests with yours
No investment committees or mandatory house views
But… active discussion of macro and micro with experienced managers
8
Multi-Asset and Fixed Income team
Jupiter Merlin Fund of Funds
team
Emerging Equity team
Financials team
Developed Equity teams
Our investment philosophy
Long term, value driven
Flexible asset allocation within global opportunity set
Agnostic to asset class – aim to choose assets with best risk-reward to implement views
Maximum limits, no minima, no neutral positions
If a core asset class is overvalued, then have none
*The fund may invest in money market funds for cash management purposes.
10
Top down macro views combined with bottom up security selection
Asset allocation decisions
Formal monthly review of a range of macro factors
Proprietary value driven equity screening model
Jupiter Equity and Fixed Income Managers
Security selection
Quantitative screening of global opportunity set
Followed by qualitative research of short list
Flexibility in choice of investment instrument to implement view
Long term strategic views across assets, regions and sectors
Opportunistic and agnostic to asset class, geography and sector
Seeking most favourable risk-reward themes
Active discussion / interaction with macro thinkers in Jupiter
Proprietary credit scoring models
11
Portfolio construction, risk controls and limits
Position sizing
Position size dependent on:
Conviction of view
Volatility of security
Liquidity of security
Diversification from other holdings
Stress testing of positions and portfolio
Based on real world experience learnt over a number of market cycles
Equity: Bonds: Currency:
Maximum 40% (including CB delta)
Highly diversified holdings
Maximum 5 year duration
Average implied credit quality investment grade, albeit with no credit limitation on individual issues
Maximum non-base currency 30%
Lower exposures on single cross currency positions
Target volatility <5%
Focus on liquidity and traded securities
Portfolio transparency
These are not fund limits, but represent fund manager style.
0.12%0.04%
0.10%
0.07%
0.04%
0.12%
0.07%
0.08%
0.14%
Strategic Total Return – risk budget
Strict risk budgeting for each position and portfolio
Stop loss disciplines
Maximum limits but no minima
Blend of traditional strategies with relative value
Seeking uncorrelated positions
Diversified, liquid portfolio:
9 strategies
78 securities
Risk budgeting – Absolute VaR per strategy
Source: Jupiter 20.03.12. Note: The VaR shown is the 99% 1-day VaR for the strategy in isolation weighted by the position size - it does not take into account the correlations between strategies and so overstates the risk in the portfolio. The total portfolio 1-day 99% VaR is 0.23%.
12
Long S&P Short Russell
Equity
Convertible Bonds
Financial + Corporate Debt
Sovereign Debt
Short Sovereign Bond Futures
Long MXN Short ZAR
Long USDShort AUD
Long USDShort JPY
13
Jupiter Strategic Total Return (STR)
Lower risk fund
Proven investment approach
Experienced and established team
Flexible asset allocation
Diversified portfolio
Low correlation to traditional asset classes
Transparent portfolio
Appendix
15
Portfolio positioning
Currency exposure: Deviation from base currency
Current portfolio positioning
Asset allocationKey characteristics
Fund size €124m
Net equity exposure (including hedges) 7%
YTM/P 1.04%
Current yield 2.5%
Modified duration 0.3 years
Average explicit credit rating A+
Average implied credit rating A
No. securities 80
Fund volatility 1.9%
Source: Jupiter as at 31.03.12.
Sov
erei
gnbo
nds
Cor
pora
tebo
nds
Bon
dFu
ture
Con
vert
ible
bond
s
Equ
itie
s
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
USD MXN HKD Other EUR JPY AUD ZAR
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
16
Interest rate exposure by maturity (duration)
0-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-10 10+
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7 EUR USD GBP JPY HKD
Yea
rs
17
Flexible exposure to asset classes based on macro-economic insights. Aims to avoid over-priced assets
Bottom up security selection: Equity, convertible, credit
Equity-related: Regional and sectoral thematic bets
Interest rate:
Duration positioning
Relative value; inter / intra yield curve
Forex: Non core, reserved for long term structural anomalies
Futures used for hedging and relative value strategies
Options: Premium paid to improve asymmetric return profile
Sources of return
18
UK is highly indebted
Combining government, business, bank and household debt reveals the true scope of a country’s obligations
Source: ZeroHedge 23.11.11.
19
“There’s too much froth in the Australian currency” RBA board member
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Australian govt bond foreign ownership AUDUSD
Au
stra
lian
go
vt.
bo
nd
fo
reig
n o
wn
ersh
ipA
UD
/US
D F
X R
ate
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg 31.12.11.
20
Japan is a rentier economy
Source: MizuhoSecurities, Japan MOF.
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 090%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Trade balance ratio Income ratio
Contribution from trade balance and the income to the current account
21
Bank of Japan is now explicitly targeting 1% inflation
Source: Bloomberg, 2011.
87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jap
an C
PI
Infl
atio
n
Japanese CPI
The portfolio managers – biographies
22
Proven, experienced investment team with award winning track record
Lee ManziFund Manager
Lee started his fund management career at JP Morgan Asset Management (formerly Flemings) in 1998, working in the fixed income team. After spells working on the European fixed income team and UK desk, he took over the management of the firm’s UK Sterling accounts before joining the Global Portfolios Group in 2001 where he managed the fixed income portion of the balanced funds
He then worked in the Global Multi Asset Group with Miles, focusing primarily on fixed interest and convertibles
In 2006 he moved to MPC / RWC to work with Miles as a Portfolio Manager
Miles GeldardHead of Team & Fund Manager
In the 13 years prior to his appointment Miles built and managed global convertibles, fixed income and multi asset franchises. In 2009, he was recognised in the Sauren Awards with three gold medals in the convertibles category, two gold medals in the absolute return category and two gold medals in the multi strategy international category
Having spent much of his early career managing derivative teams in the Far East, Miles became an adviser on fixed income portfolio management and foreign exchange to the Central Bank of Botswana in 1994. In 1997 he joined JP Morgan Asset Management (formerly Jardine Fleming) in Hong Kong and became Head of Fixed Income, Currencies, Convertibles and Balanced
In 2004 Miles moved to London and became Chief Investment Officer and Head of the Global Multi Asset Group and Global Strategy Team at JP Morgan Asset Management. In addition to building the convertibles business, he also built and managed the JPM Capital Preservation Fund, a global multi asset absolute return fund. Miles left JP Morgan in 2006 to join RWC Partners (previously MPC Investors), where he founded and headed the multi asset and convertibles team
Past performance should not be seen as a guide to the future. The awards detailed above were based on the managers’ past performance figures which are a representation of the fund manager’s experience and are not necessarily indicative of the potential performance of the Jupiter Strategic Total Return SICAV or Jupiter Strategic Reserve UT.
Disclosure
Jupiter Asset Management Limited (‘JAM’) is registered in England and Wales (no. 2036243). The registered office is 1 Grosvenor Place, London SW1X 7JJ. JAM is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for business conducted in the UK whose address is 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS.
This presentation is intended for investment professionals and not for the benefit of private retail investors. However any one attending the presentation or who has the opportunity to view the accompanying slides should bear in mind that the value of an investments and the income from it can go down as well as up. It may be affected by exchange rate variations and you may not get back the amount invested. Initial charges are likely to have a greater proportionate effect on returns if investments are liquidated in the shorter term. Quoted yields are not guaranteed. Current tax levels and reliefs will depend on the nature of the holding and details are contained in the key features documents. Past performance should not be seen as a guide to future performance.
This document contains information based on the MSCI AC Pacific and MSCI Pacific Indices. Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI’s express written consent.
For your security we may record or randomly monitor all telephone calls. If. Any data or views given should not be construed as investment advice. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information but no assurance or warranties are given.
The Jupiter Strategic Total Return Fund can use derivatives to speculate as to the direction a market index, currency or share will move and can cause periods of high volatility. The Fund may incur losses greater than its initial investment into derivative contracts (although investors will not incur any liabilities beyond their initial investment). The Fund is able to gain market exposure in excess of its net asset value which can increase or decrease the value of units to a greater extent than would have occurred had no additional market exposure beyond the Fund’s net asset been in place. The Fund’s value is unlikely to mirror increases and decreases in line with the respective markets it is invested in to. Further information is contained within the simplified prospectus
This document is for information only. In particular, it does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful or where the person making the offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so or the recipient may not lawfully receive any such offer or solicitation. It is the responsibility of any person in possession of this document to inform themselves, and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of relevant jurisdictions. The information and any opinions contained herein have been obtained from or are based on sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss from this information.