June 27, 2007 1 Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2010 and 2012 Resource Adequacy Forum Steering Committee Meeting Northwest Power Pool Offices June 27, 2007
June 27, 2007 1
Pacific NorthwestResource Adequacy
Assessment for2010 and 2012
Resource Adequacy ForumSteering Committee MeetingNorthwest Power Pool Offices
June 27, 2007
June 27, 2007 2
OutlineOutline
Review of the Northwest Resource Adequacy Standard
2010 and 2012 Assessments Comparison to Other Reports
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Pacific NorthwestPacific NorthwestResource AdequacyResource Adequacy
StandardStandard
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Guidelines for a StandardGuidelines for a Standard• Components
• Metric – something that can be measured• Target – acceptable value for the metric
• The metric is an assessment of available resources compared to expected loads
• The target is set to minimize the risk of curtailments due to inadequate supply
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MetricsMetrics
Energy – Annual average load/resource balance, in units of average megawatts
Capacity – Surplus sustained-peaking capability, in units of percent
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TargetsTargets
Energy – zero, i.e. loads and resources should be in balance, on average, over the year
Capacity – surplus percent required to cover
Operating reserves Extreme weather event Other contingencies
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WinterWinterCapacity TargetCapacity Target
6% foroperating reserves
15% foradverse temperature reserves
Target: 25% 4% forplanning adjustment reserves
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SummerSummerCapacity TargetCapacity Target
6% foroperating reserves
6% for adverse temperature reserves
Target: 19% 7% forplanning adjustment reserves
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Resource AssessmentResource Assessmentfor for
2010 and 20122010 and 2012
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Resource Adequacy AssessmentResource Adequacy AssessmentEnergyEnergy
2010 2012 Target
Firm L/R Bal
232 18
+ IPP 2528 2528
+ non-firm 1500 1500
Total 4260 4046 0In Average Megawatts
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Resource Adequacy AssessmentResource Adequacy AssessmentCapacityCapacity
2010 2012 Target
Winter 48% 46% 25%
Summer 32% 30% 19%
Surplus generating capacity over the average peak load
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Implementation PlanImplementation Plan “Green light” – Regional power
supply is adequate
““Yellow light”Yellow light” warning – economic standard is not met in either the 3rd or 5th year or if the physical standard is not met in the 5th year.
“Red light” warning – the physical standard is not met in the 3rd year.
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ComparisonComparison to other to other ReportsReports
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“The Forum’s overarching goal is to establish a Resource Adequacy Framework for the PNW to provide a clear, consistent, and unambiguous means of answering the question of whether the region has adequate deliverable resources to meet its loads reliably and to develop an effective implementation framework.”
Resource Adequacy Forum
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“The White Book projections are used as inputs into BPA’s long-range resource planning process to assist planning for adequate and reliable load service for the Federal system and the PNW region.”
Bonneville Power Administration
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“Each year the Northwest Regional Forecast reports the sum of individual utilities’ projected electric loads and anticipated generating resources as an indicator of the Northwest utilities’ need to acquire additional power in the next decade.”
PNUCC
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Comparison of MethodsComparison of Methods
Forum • Uses the Council’s regional load forecast• Assumes full availability of resources• Assumes some use of non-firm resources,
including uncontracted resources• Sets resource targets based on a 5
percent loss-of-load probability
PNUCC • Assesses utility loads and resources• Based on utilities’ assessment of resource
availability and loads• Counts only firm resources• No explicit target for adequacy
BPA
• Similar to PNUCC but includes uncontracted regional resources
• No explicit target for adequacy
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Comparison of MethodsComparison of Methods
Forum • Regional perspective• Does the region as a whole have
sufficient resources, including non-firm resources, to provide adequate service
PNUCC • Utility perspective• Does a utility have sufficient firm
resources to provide adequate service
BPA • Federal perspective• Does the federal supply have sufficient
firm resources to provide adequate service
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Firm Loads and Exports Firm Loads and Exports (2010)(2010)
RA Forum PNUCC BPA
Non-DSI 20919 20843 21878
DSI 302 812 473
Exports 909 866 913
Net Load
22130 23007 23264
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Resources and Imports (2010)Resources and Imports (2010)RA Forum PNUCC BPA*
Firm Hydro 11555 11496 11793
Firm Imports 869 814 873
Large Thermal 4654 4404 6104
Renewable Resources 576 872 81
Miscellaneous 0 24 0
Intra-company 0 404 0
Other 959 0 0
Cogeneration 1057 1152 1991
Non-utility 0 0 1450
Combustion Turbines 2692 1518 2515
Total 22362 20684 24807
*BPA total includes IPP generation
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Load/Resource Balance (2010)Load/Resource Balance (2010)RA
ForumPNUCC BPA
Load 22130 23007 22553
Resources 22362 20684 24807
IPP (3366)
Firm Balance
232 (2323) (1112)
IPP Resources
2528 3086 3366
Bal w/IPP 2760 763 2254
Plan Adjust 1500 0 0
Bal w/adjust 4260 763 2254
June 27, 2007 22
ConclusionsConclusionsForum • Green Light - Regional resources are
sufficient to maintain an adequate supply• Not all regional resources are secured by
utilities• Utilities should examine their own needs and
take appropriate resource actions (some of those actions might be to secure uncommitted regional resources)
PNUCC • Sum of utilities’ firm resources are insufficient to meet firm load
• Utilities need to take resource actions
BPA • Sum of federal firm resources are insufficient to meet firm load
• BPA needs to take resource actions (i.e. press release)