June 14 How can education contribute to the recovery.

11 Apr 2023

How can education contribute to the recovery

Education builds social and human capital and creates knowledge.

And provides people with the skills they need to participate in the workforce.

So there are social and individual returns to education

The best returns to education come from educating younger people – so the costs of getting it wrong for youth are highest.

And unemployment is disproportionately borne by the young.

So we need a particular focus on youth.

Education is a major enterprise in Canterbury.

Before the earthquakes, the Canterbury education sector had operating revenue of $1.31 billion and employed 11,000 people

Public education organisations held about $1.32 billion in capital assets.

International education generated $200 million a year, had overall economic impact of $300 million and supported 2,000 jobs in the region

Tertiary institutions won $56 million a year in research contracts

Per capita, the tertiary sector in greater Christchurch enrolled more students than either Auckland or Wellington

In Christchurch now … there are extra risks

greater levels of disengagement from the education system and the labour market

– too many young people are leaving education without qualifications and skills

and higher youth unemployment as the local economy readjusts

– rationalisation in the industries that employ lower-skilled people means that it will get harder for those without qualifications to get work

the rebuild could see young people working in low skill jobs but vulnerable as the boom winds down

– young people need portable skills

We need to

get the pathways through the education system working better

build understanding by education of employer needs and conversely

get more leverage from the knowledge and resources of our education system

build better links between the research community, firms and TEIs as a means of supporting industry and strengthening the local economy

This talk

Looks at the state of educational achievement and youth transitions in the region – as it was and is now

Identifies the labour market outcomes for young people

Explains what the education leaders in Canterbury are doing about it

Describes the challenges ahead of us

Looks at what we are coming up with in our renewal plan

First – Where are the young people in Christchurch? What are they doing?

School leaver achievement

Between 5,500 and 6,000 leavers each year

About 30% don’t get to level 2 – the minimum for recognition in the labour market

And for progression to meaningful higher education

School leavers

One in five school leavers has had no further training by age 20

But double that for Māori and Pasifika

And for those with low school achievement

So those who need education most access it least

The graph shows the proportion of leavers from Christchurch schools who don’t go on to tertiary

Or who go on to programmes like the Youth Guarantee.

Key finding: most people who have low/no school achievement end up not doing tertiary education

School leaver achievement and destinations

Big variations between schools – and not all due to decile

Examples ....– In one school, only half of the 2009 leavers had NCEA 2

or higher– And 15% had no achievement– And of the no achievement leavers, 83% took no further

education on leaving school

High risk of being NEET

School leaver achievement and destinations – variations between schools

Destinations for 2009 leaversLeavers in 2009 and 2010 who

don't have level 2 No education or training in 2010 Degree education in 2010

Number % % of all leavers

% of no attainment

leavers % of all leavers% of NCEA 3

leavers

School 1 468 42.9% 42.2% 58.4% 28.6% 63.8%

School 2 255 58.5% 44.7% 63.4% 9.7% 63.3%

School 3 243 41.3% 46.3% 60.6% 16.5% 54.1%

School 4 170 69.4% 47.6% 51.0% 4.9% 33.3%

School 5 118 49.6% 56.7% 82.6% 7.5% 31.6%

School 6 104 54.2% 44.9% 57.1% 14.1% 76.9%

All Christchurch 3,535 29.6% 37.5% 62.0% 32.5% 61.0%

How well does the system supply the local labour market?

A high number of tertiary completions

– including industry training

The qualification profile of the population in the region is lower than NZ as a whole

More with trades qualifications, but fewer with degrees

So at higher levels, Christchurch is supplying the Auckland and Wellington labour markets

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

25-29 25-34 25-29 25-34

Percentage of the population w ith a degreeor higher

Percentage of the population w ith a trades-level qualif ication

Canterbury region Auckland region Wellington region New Zealand

NEET and employment

Until now unemployment and NEET in Christchurch have been better than NZ as a whole

– For all age groups

But recent trends are worrying

The graph shows the NEET rate for 20-24 year olds in the June quarters

September NEET data looks better but Canterbury is still rising, while NZ is falling

NEET and employment

Between September 2010 and September 2011

The number of young people in Canterbury has fallen by 7%

The number in employment has dropped by 22%

The number not in the labour force is up 17%

The number in education has been stable– More in the school system balancing the fall off in tertiary

enrolments

Overall message – more young people disengaged and more leaving the area

Key messages The region has a skill profile little different from NZ as a whole

– But the region doesn’t have the high skill/ high education/ high earnings levels of other metropolitan areas

NEET, unemployment have been better than NZ as a whole– But recent trends show deterioration

Mixed performance in the school system – Too many school leavers without adequate qualifications and

skills– And high levels of disparity – Māori and Pasifika do worse

At higher qualification levels, Christchurch providers supply other labour markets

– Lower tertiary enrolments in 2011 pose a high risk to future income streams

– While providers face higher costs

The outlook The CDC/DoL forecast model sees a short-term construction

boom to deal with the residential repair/rebuild

With the commercial rebuild spread over a longer period

The education system is working to improve, increase and speed up training for the construction trades

We need to be sure:– There are sustainable careers for those we encourage into that

pipeline– We don’t hollow out recruitment into the firms/industries our

tradable sector depends on– We have clear and consistent messaging about the forecasts,

the outlook for youth and the importance of education

We need All school leavers to have level 2 NCEA or higher

– so they have options for tertiary study– so they are more likely to be productive, even if they don’t want

to get into tertiary study– and so their skills are more portable

More people getting higher qualifications in tertiary education

And better tertiary/employment linkages so Canterbury can capture more of the skills we produce

So we grow the base of skills in this community to ensure:– we sustain the tradable economy during the construction boom– we avoid the risk of reconstruction crowding out the production– those we get into construction have portable skills and

qualifications

What are we doing about it

Important challenges for us Better pathways and transitions – within education and

between education and employment– Getting more from Youth Guarantee and trades academies

– More active management of young people at risk – with earlier intervention

– Better careers advice and support

Better understanding of employers’ needs by education and conversely

– Leading to better alignment of supply and demand

More leverage from the knowledge and expertise resources of our education system

– Better research/business/education links

We have made progress More places for the trades academies – and a new approach to make

sure training is more widely available He Toki Ki Te Rika – a new Māori trades training initiative Enhanced pre-tertiary bridging programmes Canterbury job matcher portal – run by Careers NZ New scholarships for Canterbury school leavers moving to tertiary

study Youth guarantee and vocational pathways through NCEA The Government’s Skills for Canterbury package And coming up … a new youth transition service for young people at

risk

We have made progress And NCEA results for Canterbury schools from 2011 look

promising

Schools have faced great difficulties but have worked hard to manage the challenges they faced

But be careful … there may be selection effects at play

But challenges remain We need to encourage people to stay longer in school, getting

higher qualifications and more skills

That will sustain them beyond the construction boom

Reconstruction is necessary for recovery, but we need to keep developing the skills needed for the long-term growth and development of the economy – the industries that will sustain us in the longer term

We need avoid the risk that reconstruction crowds out the real productive sectors

We need the active support of the business community

The education renewal/recovery plan Possible proposals cover:

– More collaboration and coordination across the system– Collaboration in capital planning → shared use of facilities– Look for areas to rationalise where there is duplication– Cost reductions without loss of quality

– Better education/work links– Including employers committing to training for unskilled employees– And better business/university research links– To capture more research funding, building on our strengths

– Collaborative marketing of Christchurch as an education city– Domestic and international

– Create a shared private tertiary campus as part of the rebuild– A new approach to managing youth at risk

– Earlier intervention and better information sharing

Partnership with business leadersBetter business/education links:

If you employ a young person without skills or qualifications, we want you to support that person in training

Internships for secondary/tertiary students?

Make better use of local tertiary institutions when you recruit?

Partnerships with local tertiary institutions

– Research contracts related to developing your business?

– Providing skills when you look at opportunities for expansion/investment?

A private tertiary education facility – an investment opportunity?