General Overview of the Agricultural Act of 2014 DeDe Jones Extension Risk Management Specialist III 2014 Farm Bill Forum Amarillo, TX April 23, 2014
General Overview of the Agricultural Act of 2014
DeDe JonesExtension Risk ManagementSpecialist III
2014 Farm Bill ForumAmarillo, TX
April 23, 2014
This Information is Based on OurReading of the Bill and Discussions with AgCommittee Staff
As in the Past, We Know There Will Likely Be Differences in Our Interpretation and the Final Regulations
Presentation Disclaimer
Overview
44.557.6
756.4
89.88.1
Commodity ProgramsConservation ProgramsNutrition ProgramsCrop Insurance ProgramsEverything Else
Estimated Outlays for 2014 Farm Bill (Billion $), 2014 to 2023.
Source: Compiled from CBO estimates, January 28, 2014
Change in Estimated Outlays Relative to the Baseline for 2014 Farm Bill (Billion $), 2014 to 2023
Source: Compiled from CBO estimates, January 28, 2014
Commod
ity Pr
ogram
s
Conser
vatio
n Prog
rams
Nutritio
n Prog
rams
Crop In
suran
ce-20-15-10-505
10
-$14.3
-$4-$8.6
+ $7
What’s Out??
Direct Payments
Countercyclical Payments (CCP)
ACRE Program
Cotton Program - - except for loan rate
What is Out??
What’s In??
What’s In?? Price Loss Coverage (PLC)
Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC)
Insurance products (2015??)◉ SCO – Area wide product◉ STAX – Applies only to cotton
Other Changes & Opportuniti
es
One time opportunity to reallocate base acreage between crops that you have planted (2009-2012 crop year averages)
One time opportunity to update payment yields to 90% of the 2008-2012 crop year averages
Cotton base acres are now “Generic” base acres
Sign up should start after the first of the year
Regardless of which program is chosen, the first payment (if any is due) will not be made until after September 30th 2015 for the 2014 crop
Changes & Opportunities
General Commodit
y Provisions
Wheat, Oats, Barley, Corn, Grain Sorghum, Long Grain Rice, Medium Grain Rice, Pulse Crops, Soybeans, Other Oilseeds and Peanuts◉ Other Oilseeds
◉ Sunflower seed, Rapeseed, Canola, Safflower, Flaxseed, Mustard Seed, Crambe, Sesame Seed, or any oilseed designated by the Secretary
◉ Pulse Crops◉ Dry peas, Lentils, Small Chickpeas and Large
Chickpeas
Covered Commodities
• $125,000 per person payment limits for (ARC, PLC, LDPs and marketing loan gains) combined
• Peanuts maintain a separate limit• $900,000 3 year average adjusted gross
income (AGI) on commodity and conservation programs
Payment Limitations
• Actively Engaged Provisions- Directs the USDA Secretary to conduct a
rulemaking to define the term “significant contribution of active personal management” and determine if a limit on the number of individuals in an entity qualifying using “management” is necessary.
- Potential changes will not apply to individuals or to entities that are made up solely of family members.
Payment Limitations (Cont.)
Base Reallocati
on
• One time base reallocation- Two choices (made by farm):
• Reallocate (cannot add base acres)• Retain existing base acres
- Reallocates base acres other than cotton that were on the farm as of September 30, 2013
Base Reallocation
Decoupled from production, only applies to program crops
Cotton base acres are now generic base acres
Producers also have the opportunity to update their payment yields to 90% of the 2008-2012 crop year averages
Base Reallocation (Cont.)
- Reallocation is in proportion to the ratio of:• The 4 year average of planted acres to
each crop from 2009 to 2012/ the 4 year average of all covered commodities planted
• Under planting does not affect the amount of base. The planted acres of covered commodities only affects the proportion of base acres that you will reallocate among commodities
Base Reallocation (Cont.)
Base Reallocation Example Corn Sorghum Soybean
s Wheat TotalBase 0 0 0 1,000 1,000 Plantings 2009 500 250 250 0 1,0002010 500 250 250 0 1,0002011 500 250 250 0 1,0002012 500 250 250 0 1,000Average 500 250 250 0 1,000 Share 50% 25% 25% 0%
Reallocated Base 500 250 250 0 1,000Source: House Agriculture Committee Staff
Corn Sorghum
Soybeans Wheat Alfalfa Total
Base 0 0 0 1,000 n/a 1,000 Plantings
2009 600 100 100 0 200 1,0002010 600 100 100 0 200 1,0002011 600 100 100 0 200 1,0002012 600 100 100 0 200 1,000Average 600 100 100 0 200 1,000 Share 75% 12.5% 12.5% 0% n/a
Reallocated Base 750 125 125 0 1,000Source: House Agriculture Committee Staff
Base Reallocation Example (With a Non-program Crop)
Should you reallocate the base or not? It Depends………… Yes, if the operator’ objective is to
manage risk based on what he actually plants
Maybe no if the operator is trying to maximize the expected payments received
Base Reallocation Decision
• Base reallocation- As soon as practicable after the date of enactment of this
Act, the Secretary shall provide notice to the owners of a farm regarding their opportunity to make an election
• Yield Update- At the sole discretion of the owner of a farm, the owner of
a farm shall have a 1-time opportunity to update, on a covered commodity-by-covered-commodity basis, the payment yield that would otherwise be used in calculating any price loss coverage payment for each covered commodity on the farm for which the election is made.
Who Makes The Decisions?
• ARC or PLC- For the 2014 through 2018 crop years, all of
the producers on a farm shall make a 1-time, irrevocable election to obtain.
This decision stays with the farm for the life of the farm bill
Who Makes The Decisions? (Cont.)
Price Loss Coverage
(PLC)
Covers Losses in Income Due to Covered Commodity Price Declines Below Established Reference Prices
PLC Payment Rate = Reference Price – Higher of {National Average Marketing Year Price or Marketing Loan Rate}
PLC Payment = PLC Payment Rate * Payment Yield * Base Acres X .85
Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Program
Reference PricesWheat -------------------- $5.50/buCorn ---------------------- $3.70/buGrain Sorghum ---------- $3.95/buSoybeans ----------------- $8.40/buOther Oilseeds ----------- $20.15/buPeanuts ------------------- $535/ton
Crop Target Price Effective PriceCorn 2.63 2.35Grain Sorghum 2.63 2.28Peanuts 495 459Oats 1.79 1.766Soybeans 6.00 5.56Wheat 4.17 3.65
8.405.50
PLCReference Price
2008 Farm Bill
3.703.955352.40
Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Reference Price
PLC Payment made on 85% of Base Acres
Agricultural Risk
Coverage (ARC)
Covers Losses in Income for a Covered Commodity Relative to a Revenue Guarantee
ARC can be Selected at the County or Individual Level
ARC county will allow irrigated and non-irrigated to be calculated separately
Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC)
County Payments are made when actual revenue for the covered commodity < ARC revenue guarantee, where:
◉Actual county revenue = actual county yield per planted acre * national marketing year average price
◉ARC revenue benchmark = the U.S. Olympic average marketing year price for the most recent 5 years * the Olympic average county yield for the most recent 5 years.◉ If any of the 5 years of prices are lower than
Reference Price then replace with the Reference Price.
◉ If the actual county yield is < 70% of T-yield replace with the T-yield
◉ ARC revenue guarantee = .86 * ARC revenue benchmark
◉ Payments cannot exceed 10% of indiv benchmark revenue
Comparing PLC and
ARC
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/190
5
10
15
20
25
30
2527
24
161314
21
25 26 25
ARC PLC
Avg. corn ARC and PLC Payments(Dollars per base acre for participating producers)
AFPC Estimate of Average PLC and ARC Payments for Corn in Moore County, 2014 to 2018
This is a good decision to have – both appear to providesupport. What you decide is a personal choice, and may depend your insurance selection & price expectations
Market Receipts
MLG
Revenue per bu
LoanRate – $1.95
Market Price
Revenue Benchmark
Crop insurance coverage
86%76%
Illustration of Government Support for Corn Under ARC-County
[paid on base acres x .65 (individual) or .85 (county)]
Revenue Guarantee
Market Receipts
PLCMLG/LDP
Revenue per bu
Reference Price – $3.70
LoanRate – $1.95
Paid on base acres x .85
Market Price
Illustration of Government Support for Corn Under PLC
Crop insurance coverage
Supplemental Coverage Option
Major Insurance Provisions
• A new area-wide insurance program (SCO) will be available to all PLC producers to purchase beginning in 2015 that is designed to protect them against losses that would normally fall within their insurance deductible range. Must have individual policy- Up to 86% revenue guarantee. 65% premium
subsidy- Sign up on an annual basis, based on current
production
Major Insurance Provisions
Partially Available For Next Year
• Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) has characteristics of underlying individual MPCI policy. Yield or Revenue Protection
• Loss trigger is based on county loss of yield or revenue
• Indemnity is county loss % times individual max indemnity
• Will not pay until after county yields for both irrigated and dryland practices have been determined
• SCO is not available if enrolled in ARC• Requires conservation compliance to receive
premium subsidy AND a signed AD-1026 form on file by July 2015
Supplemental Coverage Option
InsuranceGuarantee
Deductible
40%SCO
Indemnity 26%
ActualPrice
XActualYield
Example:60%
coverage
Loss 14%
Ind. Coverage Indemnity
Insu
ranc
e Pr
ice
X 10
Yea
r Av
erag
e (A
PH)
Yiel
d
Example of Price LossCoverage
(PLC)PlusSCO
CropInsuranceExpectedRevenue
+Any PLCBenefits
Other Insurance Provisions• Makes enterprise unit discount permanent.
Allows enterprise units to be split out for irrigated and non-irrigated crops
• Adjustment in actual production history to determine insurable yields.- A producer may choose to exclude any year
from their APH if their yield in that year is less than 50% of the ten year county average. This also applies to contiguous counties and allows for the separation of irrigated and non-irrigated acres.
Choose ARC
Choose PLC
County
Base/Yield ReallocationDecision
Choice BetweenARC and PLC
Individual
Beginning in 2015 can
choose SCO insurance
option
Flow Chart of Title I Producer Choices for Covered Commodities Other than Upland Cotton
This decision is on a crop by crop basis for each farm unless the producer chooses individual ARC then it is for all the crops on that farm. If all parties cannot agree on a choice then the farm would not be enrolled in ARC or PLC for the 2014 crop and the farm would automatically be enrolled in PLC for the 2015 crop and beyond.
Crop Insurance
Title XI
Cotton Provisions
• Upland cotton producers will no longer participate in commodity programs other than the marketing loan program
• The primary government safety net for cotton producers will be a new cotton only insurance program referred to as stacked income protection plan (STAX)◉ STAX will not be available until the 2015 crop
year at the earliest so the bill provides cotton producers a transition payment for up to 2 years if needed that is similar to the direct payment in previous farm bills (5.4 cent). Deadline to sign-up is October 7th.
Upland Cotton Only
• All Cotton base on the farm as of September 30, 2013 is renamed Generic Base- Upland cotton no longer receives traditional
commodity program payments - In an attempt to resolve longstanding WTO dispute
with Brazil, the only income support upland cotton will receive is through purchased insurance
- On an annual basis, generic base acres can be assigned to other covered commodities based on the number of acres planted of the other covered crops
- Will need to make Commodity Program Choices on Generic Base
Cotton Base Becomes Generic Base
Generic Base
Original Wheat Base
100 Acre Farm – Base Acres: 50 Wheat and 50 Generic
If farmer plants 50 acres of wheat and 50 acres of sorghum
Allocated Generic Base to Sorghum
Allocated Generic Base
to Wheat
Farmer has protection on 75 acres of wheat and 25 acres of GS
Generic Base
Original Wheat Base
100 Acre Farm – Base Acres: 50 Wheat and 50 GenericIf farmer plants 100 acres of cotton
Generic Base Idled for Year
Farmer has protection on 50 acres of wheat
Generic Base Idled for Year
Generic Base
Original Wheat Base
100 Acre Farm – Base Acres: 50 Wheat and 50 GenericIf farmer plants 1 acre of wheat and 99 acres of cotton
Allo
cate
d Ge
neric
Bas
e to
W
heat
Farmer has protection on 51 acres of wheat
• “Expected” to be available beginning 2015 crop year
• An area-wide insurance program only available to upland cotton producers to purchase beginning in 2015 (similar to GRIP plan)
• Covers from 90% of revenue guarantee down to 70% or insurance coverage level (whichever is higher) in 5% increments. 80% premium subsidy and includes protection factor up to 120%
Stacked Income Protection Plan (STAX)
• Revenue guarantee established based off of expected insurance price * an expected county yield (max of expected county yield for area plans or most recent 5 year Olympic average yield from RMA or NASS)
• Can be in addition to individual buy-up coverage or used as a stand alone policy
• Differentiates between irrigated and non-irrigated
Stacked Income Protection Plan (STAX) (Cont.)
Loss 10%
Loss 10%
InsuranceGuarantee
Deductible
40%
STAX Indemnit
y 20%
ActualPrice
XActualYield
Example:60%
coverage
Ind. Coverage Indemnity
Insu
ranc
e Pr
ice
X 10
Yea
r Av
erag
e (A
PH)
Yiel
d
Example of STAX
CropInsuranceExpectedRevenue
Area loss only
Dryland STAX SCOIndemnity
PaidProducer Premium
Indemnity Paid
Producer Premium
2000 $37.55 $2.63 $48.81 $5.982001 $35.40 $2.48 $46.02 $5.642002 - $1.57 - $3.572003 $11.49 $2.47 $4.45 $5.612004 - $2.08 - $4.742005 - $1.60 - $3.632006 $27.84 $1.95 $36.19 $4.432007 - $2.08 - $4.732008 - $2.57 - $5.842009 - $2.31 - $5.262010 - $4.00 - $9.102011 $62.73 $4.39 $81.55 $9.992012 $51.52 $3.61 $66.98 $8.20Total $226.53 $22.72 $248.00 $76.71Average $17.43 $2.59 $21.85 $5.90Ratio 6.7 3.7
How does STAX stack up against SCO?
Irrigated STAX SCOIndemnity
PaidProducer Premium
Indemnity Paid
Producer Premium
2000 $67.54 $4.73 $85.02 $10.762001 $63.96 $4.48 $169.30 $10.182002 - $3.22 - $7.322003 $71.74 $5.55 $55.88 $12.622004 - $4.58 - $10.412005 - $3.72 - $8.462006 - $4.22 - $9.592007 - $4.63 - $10.542008 - $5.88 - $13.392009 - $5.19 - $11.812010 - $9.17 - $20.872011 $152.03 $10.64 $197.64 $24.212012 $32.75 $8.52 $8.42 $19.37Total $388.01 $74.53 $430.11 $169.54Average $29.85 $5.73 $33.09 $13.04Ratio 5.2 2.5
How does STAX stack up against SCO?
Choice of STAX
with or without
crop insurance
or SCO
with crop insurance
Can’t have both on
same acres
SCOCounty plan
on top of individual plan only,coverage<= 86%
Crop insurance: Underlying
individual or area plan coverage
determines STAX lower bound
Flow Chart of Title XI Decisions for Upland CottonSTAX
County plan alone or on
top of individual
or area plan,
coverage ≥ 70% to
90%, 1.2
multiplier Crop insuranceUnderlying
individual plan coverage level
determines SCO lower bound
How to Sort Through All the
Choices??
AFPC Decision
Aid
Why Use It???? There are a lot options and almost impossible
to evaluate them all with a pad & pencil◉Program options by Farm number, practice
and crop
You will have to live with some decisions for the life of the program and maybe beyond magnifying results
It will really simplify program signup - - Print out the results and highlight what you want
Data entry will be by far the most challenging part of using the Decision Aid but you only have to do it once!
External data required:◉FSA form 156-EZ (Base acres & yields)◉Insurance info (yields and APH)◉Crop basis information (est.)
Texas version (unofficial) is ready for you to input your data in - - when the “official” version comes out your data will automatically be transferred
AFPC Decision Aid
Producers are Asked to Create an Account So We Can Alert “if” Rules Change
Once an Accnt is Created, Login Anytime to Adjust Data, Rerun Scenarios, etc.
This Tool Provides Title I and Title IV Assistance for Producers
Sample Input Page
Data Summary Page - Yields
Sample Yield Update Results
Sample Input Page - Acres
Sample Base Acre Update Results
Must Manually Enter Prices
Results
Results
Results
Results
Commodity Program Summary• The farmer safety net is strong – but
mostly after a loss is incurred- It is going to take some farmers a while
to get used to this- If you are a new farmer or rancher,
there are additional programs that might be of benefit to you
• Crop insurance is going to take on a larger role in producer risk management decisions
• A good insurance agent will be key
Conservation and
Disaster Programs
Supplemental Agricultural Disaster Assistance program is funded permanently
Includes Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP) and Livestock Disaster Forage Program (LDFP)
Will back up and pick up 2012 and 2013 Remove the linkage with NAP on pasture
Supplemental Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs
Contact Your Local FSA Office!
Mandatory Conservation Program Outlays
Source: FAPRI-MU U.S. Baseline Briefing Book, page 47
CRP outlays fall, other conservation programs rise
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Fiscal year
Bill
ion
dolla
rs
Conservation reserve Other mandatory conservation programs
Conservation Reserve Program Cap Reduced from a Current Maximum of 32 to 24 million acres by 2018
Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Million AcresCRP Cap by Year
27.7 26 25 24 24
Annual enrollment cap of 10,000,000 acres at a national average payment rate of $18 per acre for FY 2014 through FY 2022.
Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP)
Merges Wildlife Incentive Program (WHIP) with EQIP◉Eligible lands include:
◉ Upland wildlife habitat◉ Wetland wildlife habitat◉ Habitat for threatened or endangered species◉ Habitat on pivot corners and irregular areas of
a field◉ And as determined by the Secretary
60 Percent of Funding for Livestock Producers At Least 5 Percent of Funds Targeted at Wildlife
Benefitting Practices
Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Billion Dollars of Mandatory Funding
Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP)
1.35 1.60 1.65 1.65 1.75
Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP)
Livestock disaster program enrollment starts NOW
Signup for the commodity programs will begin probably early 2015◉Decision to reallocate base acres and/or yields◉Chose between PLC or ARC
Cotton Decisions to be made soon - - ◉Signup for transition payment◉Signup for what crops are eligible for Generic
acres and make PLC or ARC election for each of them
What you Need to Know- - - -
Second and final round of county level meetings by Extension will be in October & November?
Meetings will focus on:◉Major FP Provisions – especially changes◉Decision Aid Data entry◉Interpreting results produced by the
decision aid◉Analysis of options using High Plains case
studies-
More Education Opportunities Coming…..
Questions????The End……
For Now!!