Julian R - The CCAFS analogues tool (crop-smart breeding workshop, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

The CCAFS analogue tool: a glimpse of the future, today

Adaptation to progressive climate change

The tool: Which questions can we answer?

• Where can I find my site in the future?• Where can I find a place that currently

looks like how my site would be in the future?• Where can I find similar areas to my

site currently or in the future?

The tool: Which questions can we answer?

• Where can I find my site in the future?• Where can I find a place that currently

looks like how my site would be in the future?• Where can I find similar areas to my

site currently or in the future?

How do we calculate dissimilarity?

• The CCAFS measure: a modified version of the Euclidean distance

• Hallegatte et al. (2007): a rule based dissimilarity measure–Annual mean in rainfall–Seasonal difference in rainfall–Seasonal difference in temperature

How do we calculate dissimilarity?

• Accounting for lagSite A (southern) Site B (northern)

What do you need?Set up: just download and install

• R >= 2.13.0 (http://www.r-project.org), and packages:– raster, sp, rgdal, maps, spgrass6, stringr, maptools,

foreign, lattice, akima, grid, plotrix, rimage, XML• GRASS GIS >= 6.4 (http://grass.fbk.eu/)• Quantum GIS >= 1.6 (http://www.qgis.org/)

http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues

Analysing technology transfer

Looking at networks of research sites

• Climatic analogies between CCAFS benchmark sites

Important!

• Could we relate our dissimilarity index with growth parameters and yields?

• Varietal targeting and selection of testing sites?

• Coupling with crop models for evaluation and adaptation-strategy testing?

• Cropland expansion/optimisation/migration?