JUL 23 NBC Financial Group Weekly Economic Letter

8/9/2019 JUL 23 NBC Financial Group Weekly Economic Letter

1/16

July 23, 2010

ECONOMY AND STRATEGY GROUP 514.879.2529Stfane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist

General: National Bank Financial (NBF) is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges. The particulars contained herein were obtained fromsources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy orsell the securities mentioned herein. Canadian Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make further inquiry related to this report or effect any transaction, Canadian residentsshould contact their NBF Investment advisor.U.S. Residents: NBF Securities (USA) Corp., an affiliate of NBF, accepts responsibility for the contents of this report, subject to any terms set out above. Any U.S. person wishing to effect transactionin any security discussed herein should do so only through NBF Securities (USA) Corp. UK Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, NBF has approved this financial promotion for the purposes of Section 21(1) of theFinancial Services and Markets Act 2000. NBF and/or its parent and/or any companies within or affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long oshort positions in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant securities or related financial instruments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted asinvestment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to privatcustomers. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connectio

with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This information is only for distribution to non-private customers in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Copyright: This report manot be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent ofNational Bank Financial.

Topic of the week

Certain economic indicators have been slowing

down for some time now, raising concerns about

the U.S. economic outlook among many

observers. Yet, in 2010Q2, U.S. domestic demand

will post its best performance in four years.

Though disappointing relative to the magnitude of

the past downturn, private employment is

nonetheless bouncing back faster than during the

1991 and 2001 recoveries. Finally, the dynamicsof leading and coincident indicators do not suggest

an imminent contraction in activity south of the

border. Though the chances of a relapse are not

yet nil, it is not the scenario that we are betting on

for the U.S. economy. Instead, the U.S. economy

is actually approaching the threshold of expansion.

Economic indicators review(p. 7)

Things to watchEconomic calendar and significant earnings

announcements of the week ahead (p. 8)

Economic tables(p. 9)

U.S. economy: recovery or relapse?

Summary

Certain economic indicators have been slowing down fosome time now, raising concerns about the U.Seconomic outlook among many observers.

Yet, at the end of 2010Q2, consumption and corporateprofits were already in expansion territory.

Moreover, in 2010Q2, U.S. domestic demand will post itsbest performance in four years.

Though disappointing relative to the magnitude of thepast downturn, private employment is nonethelessbouncing back faster than during the 1991 and 2001recoveries.

Growing profits, mounting real GDP and a highconfidence level among business managers shouldcontribute to generate further job creation.

Thanks to soft auto sales, consumer deleveraging andthe recent drop in mortgage rates, the financiaobligations ratio of U.S. households is already almosback to its historical average for the past 30 years. Thisbodes well for continued consumption growth.

Finally, the dynamics of leading and coincidenindicators do not suggest an imminent contraction inactivity south of the border.

As you might easily have guessed, though the chancesof a relapse are not yet nil, it is not the scenario that weare betting on for the U.S. economy. Instead, the U.Seconomy is actually approaching the threshold oexpansion.

Upside since recession

Before cutting to the chase of our analysis, we need to re-

establish a few facts about the current recovery in theUnited States. First of all, consumption, the heavy-weighcomponent of the U.S. economy accounting for 70% oactivity, has topped its pre-recession peak in the span oonly five quarters. Not bad considering that consumers arein the throes of deleveraging.


2/16

WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER

July 23, 2010

1) Consumption and profits growing?Level of consumption and profits*

*Q2 data = NBFG projection

%

Demande excdentaire

Offre excdentaire

8,960

9,000

9,040

9,080

9,120

9,160

9,200

9,240

9,280

9,320

9,360

9,400

9,440

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 0 7Q3 08Q1 08Q3 09Q1 09Q3 10Q1 10Q3

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group, Congressional Budget Office

Consumption (L)

Profits (R)

$ billions $ billions

Whats more, all this came about despite a decline incredit aggregates, which constitute lagging indicators of

the economic cycle. Second, corporate profits have beenon the rise for several quarters now. This providesconsiderable leeway given that businesses are generallyin a better financial position today than they were duringthe recoveries of 1991 and 2001.

0.995

1.000

1.005

1.010

1.015

1.020

1.025

1.030

1.035

1.040

1.045

1.050

1 2 3 4 50.99

1.00

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

1.06

1.07

1.08

1.09

1.10

1.11

1.12

1 2 3 4 5

2) A robust investment cycleReal investment in machinery and equipmentReal consumption

*Based on our assumption for Q2

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight and BEA)

Index: 1 = last quarter of recessions

Average cycle(1960 to 2001)

Average cycle excludingaftermath of tech bubblecollapse

Current cycle*

# of quarters # of quarters

Index: 1 = last quarter of recessions

Average cycle(1960 to 2001)

Current cycle*

This combined with the fact that businesses invested verylittle during the recession, resulting in a very low ratio ofbusiness investment to GDP, explains why the recovery inIME is more robust this time around than the averagerecovery since the 1960s. This is the case even if we

exclude the recovery that followed the collapse of the techbubble in 2002. Thus, businesses today constitute a majorgrowth vector.

Recovery less vigorous than usual?

Many analyses and economic letters these days areclaiming that the present recovery is less vigorous thanprevious ones. Actually, this depends on which variablesare being analyzed and how they are interpreted.

As we have just seen, the recovery in IME is stronger thanprevious ones on average. The same cannot be said for

consumption (left-hand side of Chart 2), whose curvesince the end of the recession is in fact less steep than theaverage for past recoveries.

However, if we look at past episodes individually, we

clearly see that the present recovery in consumption iscomparable to the two previous ones in 1991 and 2001but not those before that (Chart 3).

0.995

1.000

1.0051.010

1.015

1.020

1.025

1.030

1.035

1.040

1.045

1.050

1.055

1.060

1.065

1.070

1 2 3 4 5

3) Recoveries fall into two tiersReal consumption index in times of recovery

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group, Global Insight

Index: 1 = onset of recession

1991

2001

2009

Recoveries since

1960s prior to 1991

Observers have remarked that, generally speaking, thepresent recovery is weaker than usual if we consider thefact that the decline this recession was more severe. Inother word, a sharper downturn should call for a sharperrebound. We concur with this analysis entirely. From thispoint of view, there is no denying that the present recoveryis generally more modest.

However, from a different perspective, the stock markealready reacted to the fact that the recession was moresevere, having retreated much further than in pasepisodes. Seeing how investors look straight ahead andnot in the rear-view mirror, the pace of the recoveryregardless of the decline, is what matters to the financiamarkets above all. Let us look at the situation from thisangle then.

From the cycle trough onward, the present recovery inU.S. consumption compares to those of 1991 and 2001However, it is very different in terms of its make-upIndeed, aggregate consumption has recovered despite anabnormally low level of car sales. These stand at the

same level as in 1982 although the population and thenumber of workers today are far greater than back then.

The shockwave that hit the auto industry was without adoubt extremely severe. However, this did not preventaggregate consumption from rapidly bouncing back intoexpansion territory. In other words, U.S. households arebuying fewer cars but spending more on other goods andservices.


3/16


July 23, 2010

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

4) Far fewer car sales


Units

11.3

17.0

Difference of

5.7 million units

Domestic demand improving at last

Along a similar line of reasoning, many observers have

concluded that U.S. domestic demand was far weakerthan in previous economic recoveries. This analysis holdsif we consider only 2010Q1. However, if we take intoaccount the data for Q2, it no longer flies (the official realGDP data for Q2 will be published July 30 but we alreadyhave two months of data available with which to evaluatethe quarter and even three in some cases).

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

% (q/q, annualized)

5) Stronger domestic demand in Q2U.S. domestic demand and NBFG projections

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight)

As shown in Chart 5, in 2010Q2, domestic demandregistered its strongest growth since the beginning of2006. We expect this demand to cool over the comingquarters, to be sure, but it will nevertheless remainrelatively high throughout 2010. Not before next year will itrecord more modest growth.

U.S. real GDP will expand about 3% in Q2, primarilyowing to a surge in imports of nearly 20%, which willinevitably detract from growth. International trade will thuscast a veil over much stronger domestic demand growth,with consumption jumping about 2.5% and business IMEsoaring approximately 20%. This is why, all thingsconsidered, we expect domestic demand growth to checkin this July 30 in the vicinity of 3.8%.

Truly extraordinary

Still, we must admit that the current economic situation inthe United States is truly very different from most previouscycles. The difference between productivity growth (hourlyoutput) and employment growth is huge, with the formerattaining record highs. As illustrated in Chart 6, thisdynamic is unprecedented in its magnitude. Strongproductivity growth today constitutes an engine of wealthcreation by virtue of the corporate profits it is generatingHowever, it does not help new employment.

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010


% (y/y)

6) A rather unusual situationProductivity and employment growth

Labour productivity

Employment

Where monetary policy is concerned, the FederaReserve, too, is facing a novel situation. Owing to thecollapse of the housing bubble, its monetary policy has notraction on residential investment.

As we can see in Chart 7, this is the first time ever that anegative real federal funds rate does not trigger a reboundin residential real estate. This is exactly what happenedwith business investment during the collapse of the techbubble. Under such circumstances, we cannot expect atraditional cyclical rebound.

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

05

10

15

20

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10


% (y/y)

Residential investment

Real federal funds rate

P.P.

7) for monetary policy as wellReal federal funds rate and residential investment


4/16


July 23, 2010

High hopes

This said, we have high hopes that the U.S. economy willgrow about 3.5% in 2010. The key factor on which the

0.991

0.992

0.993

0.994

0.995

0.996

0.997

0.998

0.999

1.000

1.001

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 12 130.990

0.991

0.992

0.993

0.994

0.995

0.996

0.997

0.998

0.999

1.000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 12 13

Index: 1 = at end of recessions

8) How is employment faring?

Total employment Total employment excluding construction

2009

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group, Global Insight

2001

1991

2009

1991

2001

Index: 1 = at end of recessions

U.S. economic cycle will ultimately ride going forward is itscapacity to create jobs. As already mentioned, there hasbeen no paucity of corporate profits so far. How the cycleunfolds will depend on how businesses behave in future.

Employment reports are probably those that draw themost media attention. In this regard, it is important to notethat, although the latest monthly report was disappointingin terms of private-sector job creation, on a quarterly basisit was nevertheless interesting. At 1.6%, it represents thestrongest private-sector performance since 2006.Importantly, this should contribute to sustain consumption

in the months ahead.

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10


% (q/q)

9) Persistence still strongQuarterly private-sector employment growth

As mentioned earlier, the rebound in employment shouldhave been more robust than what we have observed sofar given the severity of the job losses during therecession. Once again, the financial markets know, as dowe, that U.S. real GDP and employment fell sharply. Wealso know by how much. However, as far as the future ofthe cycle and the direction of the markets are concerned,this question is already no longer relevant. The fact is that

the current recovery so far has been generating job gainsmore rapidly than did the recoveries of 1991 and 2001This is what ultimately will determine the future of the U.Srecovery (Charts 8 and 9).

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Bloomberg)

10) Who should we trust?Confidence among households and business managers

Managers (L)

Households (R)

Index Index

Certain other observers have argued that businesses willose their animal spirit in the current economic cycle. Iso, why then are they once again more confident thanhousehold in these times of economic recovery and whywere they less confident just before the recession (seeChart 10)? Why then is the business IME cycle morerobust than the average for all past recoveries if the U.Seconomy, again according to certain observers, is on theverge of relapsing into recession?

We are neither always optimistic nor always pessimisticInstead, as economic analysts, we seek to keep ahead ofthe cycle at all times, whether in periods of recession

recovery or expansion. In this regard, we have reason tobelieve that good old Okuns law (a positive correlationexists between employment and GDP growth) will holdonce again. As we can see from Chart 11, the law isirrefutable.

-5

-4

-3

-2

-10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010


% (y/y)

11) Okuns lawReal GDP and employment growth

Real GDP

Employment

Real GDP growth need only surpass productivity growthfor job creation to occur. Seeing how labour productivityhas reached new heights in the United States, chancesare relatively good that businesses will no longer be able


5/16


July 23, 2010

to crank up their production without increasing hoursworked and/or their number of employees.

Hence, beyond the normal monthly volatility that thedifferent employment reports can present, we are hopeful

that the economic cycle (i.e., real GDP growth) will createjobs in the United States going forward.

All is not bleak

All the more so that, notwithstanding the army ofpessimists relentlessly reminding us that credit aggregatesare retreating and that consumers are deleveraging, thereare other phenomena occurring that are conducive tocontinued growth.

15.2

15.6

16.0

16.4

16.8

17.2

17.6

18.0

18.4

18.8

19.2

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Federal Reserve)

%

12) All is not bleakRatio of financial obligations to disposable personal income

If we assume that the drastic decline in car sales is theresult not only of layoffs but also of households deciding to

hang on to their vehicles longer than before, the fact thatthe financial obligations ratio of U.S. households has fallensteeply comes as no surprise. The ratio now standspractically at its historical average. This means that manyhouseholds have already freed up some elbow room intheir budget, a situation that does not point towards a dropin consumer spending.

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


Index %

13) New wave of mortgage refinancingVolume of mortgage refinancing (MBA) and 30-year fixed mortgage rate

Refinancing

30-year rate

There is one more important point that deserves attention.The recent decline in interest rates in response to a

cooling of inflation and fears of a recession relapse havegenerated a wave of mortgage refinancing. The index ohome refinancing volume has soared 103% since Aprialone. This index should climb even further given tha

long-term mortgage rates have just struck an all-time lowa situation that many households will no doubt want totake advantage of. This, too, is a factor that should sustainconsumption.

Data do not point t o relapse

Finally, the data regarding leading and coincidenindicators run counter to the scenario feared by a largenumber of observers to the effect that the U.S. economyrisks dipping back into recession.

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data vi a Global Insight and BEA)

% (6 months)

14) No credible sign of recession relapseCoincident and leading economic indicators

Leading

Coincident

Although the leading indicator has certainly saggedsomewhat since peaking, this is a normal phenomenon

that occurs in every recovery. In addition, as it also takesinto account financial variables, the leading indicator is famore volatile than the coincident indicator. For its part, thecoincident indicator, which is correlated with current GDPgrowth, continues to advance and is leagues away from arelapse scenario. In fact, as shown in Chart 14, aneconomy falls into recession only when the coincidentindicator veers downward. Therefore, a combination suchas the one prevailing at the moment, that is, a slightlyslower growing leading indicator in conjunction with anaccelerating coincident indicator, does not constitute asign that the U.S. economy risks relapsing into recession.

Conclusion As at 2010Q2, consumption and profits were already

in expansion mode in the United States.

In 2010Q2, U.S. domestic demand will post its bestperformance in four years.

Though disappointing relative to the magnitude of thepast downturn, private employment is nonethelessbouncing back faster than during the 1991 and 2001recoveries.


6/16


July 23, 2010

Growing profits, mounting real GDP and a highconfidence level among business managers shouldcontribute to generate further job creation.

Thanks to soft auto sales, consumer deleveraging and

the recent drop in mortgage rates, the financialobligations ratio of U.S. households is already almostback to its historical average for the past 30 years.This bodes well for continued consumption growth.

Finally, the dynamics of leading and coincidentindicators do not suggest an imminent contraction inactivity south of the border.

As you might easily have guessed, though the chances oa relapse are not yet nil, it is not the scenario that we arebetting on for the U.S. economy. Instead, the U.Seconomy is actually approaching the threshold o

expansion.

Yanick Desnoyers Assistant Chief Economist514 879-3140 [email protected]


7/16


ECONOMIC INDICATORS REVIEWbyMarco Lettier

July 23, 2010 7

CanadaOn July 20, the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised itsovernight rate 25 basis points to 0.75%. Despite the move, the

BoC adopted a more cautious tone regarding its growth

outlook. While recognizing that the global economic recoverywas proceeding, it saw the policy response to the European

sovereign debt crisis as a drag on activity. Consequently, the

BoC now expected the Canadian economy to expand 3.5% in

2010 (down from 3.7%) and 2.9% in 2011 (down from 3.1%).

In June, headline CPI inflation slid to 1.0% from 1.4% in May.

The core CPI dipped to 1.7% year over year from 1.8% the

previous month. On a monthly basis, headline CPI sank 0.2%

(seasonally adjusted), the same rate at which it decreased in

May. Core inflation was up 0.1% on the month, the same pace

at which it increased the month before. We can expect the BoC

to pursue its campaign of interest rate normalization despite

softness in the inflation numbers.

In May, retail sales sagged 0.2%, registering a second

consecutive monthly drop. The decline came after the worst

contraction in sales since 1998 excluding the last recession

period. Sales pulled back in 6 of 11 retail industries with over

48% of the retreat due to motor vehicles and parts (-0.5%).

Excluding this segment, retail sales slipped 0.1%. Volume

retail sales were up (+0.4%) but not enough to reverse Aprils

losses (-2.1%). However, sales prospects remain good for the

months ahead in the light of the healthy Canadian labour

market environment.

Again in May, wholesale sales edged lower (-0.1%) after

slumping 0.2% one month earlier. The decrease was a result

of a 29.5% drop in agricultural supplies on the month. The

underlying activity actually fared better than headline numbers

suggested, as 6 of 7 subsectors advanced on the month.

United StatesIn June, existing-home sales decreased5.1% to 5.37M. Despite the sharp decline on the month, sales

still managed to exceed market expectations. Housing starts

were down as well, falling 5.0% to 549K for a second

consecutive monthly drop. A significant portion of the current

weakness in the data is attributable to the termination ofgovernment programs intended to stimulate activity in the

industry. On a more comforting note, building permits

registered an increase of 2.1%, which suggests that the

housing sector should not weaken further in the months ahead.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Canada: core CPI at 1.7% in JuneTotal and core inflation (Bank of Canada)

%(y/y)

Bank of CanadaCPIX target range

Total (1.0%)

CPIX (1.7%)

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2007 2008 2009 2010

%(m/m)

Canada: second consecutive monthly drop in retail salesNominal and real retail sales (monthly rate of change)

NominalVolume

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.4

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

United States: existing-home sales pull back in JuneU.S. existing-home sales

Units (millions)

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight)


8/16


THINGS TO WATCH Canada & US

July 23, 2010 8

Consensus Cons.

Estimate EPS

10:00 US New Home Sales JUN 300K 315K 295K FMC Technologies Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.71

Roper Industries Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.74Legg Mason Inc 16:00 Q1 2011 0.32

Plum Creek Timber Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.15

Fluor Corp Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.71

Range Resources Corp Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.11

Masco Corp Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.13

Lorillard Inc Q2 2010 1.61

9:00 US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind MAY 144.6 - - Talisman Energy Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.11

9:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY MAY 3.81% 3.80% CGI Group Inc Bef-mkt Q3 2010 0.29

10:00 US Consumer Confidence JUL 52.9 51.0 51.0 Rogers Comm. Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.68

Industrial Alliance 10:00 Q2 2010 0.67

Capital Power Income Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.12

Teck Resources Ltd Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.63

IESI-BFC Ltd Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.22

Cott Corp Q2 2010 0.27

Inmet Mining Corp Q2 2010 1.21

Occidental Petroleum Corp Q2 2010 1.35

Lockheed Martin Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 1.78

Viacom Inc Bef-mkt Q3 2010 0.66

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Jul-23 7.60% - - Sherritt International Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.23

8:30 US Durable Goods Orders JUN -1.10% 1.00% Husky Energy Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.45

8:30 US Durables Ex Transportation JUN 0.90% 0.40% Canadian Pacific Rail. 7:30 Q2 2010 0.84

9:00 CA Teranet/National Bank HPI MAY 12.90% - - 13.20% FirstService Corp 7:30 Q2 2010 0.51

14:00 US Fed's Beige Book Jul-28 Lundin Mining Corp 9:30 Q2 2010 0.12

Goldcorp Inc Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.29

Agnico-Eagle Mines Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.41

Enbridge Inc Q2 2010 0.58

Bell Aliant Regional Q2 2010 0.55TMX Group Inc Q2 2010 0.68

Canadian Utilities Ltd Q2 2010 0.66

ConocoPhillips 8:30 Q2 2010 1.57

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jul-24 464K 460K Suncor Energy Inc 2:30 Q2 2010 0.36

RioCan REIT Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.35

Eldorado Gold Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.08

TransAlta Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.10

TransForce Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.17

Barrick Gold Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.71

Thomson Reuters Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.49

Potash Corp of Sask. 6:00 Q2 2010 1.21

MacDonald Dettwiler 16:30 Q2 2010 0.75

Mullen Group Ltd 17:00 Q2 2010 0.07

Fairfax Financial Aft-mkt Q2 2010 7.48

Cenovus Energy Inc Q2 2010 0.40

8:30 US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 2Q A 2.70% 2.50% 3.00% Centerra Gold Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.04

8:30 US Personal Consumption 2Q A 3.00% 2.40% Brookfield Properties Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.28

8:30 CA Gross Domestic Product MoM MAY 0.00% 0.20% 0.20% George Weston Ltd Q2 2010 0.90

9:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence JUL F 66.5 67.0 Atco Ltd Q2 2010 0.95

McKesson Corp Bef-mkt Q1 2011 1.07

Simon Property Group Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 1.34

Public Service Enterprise Group Inc 8:45 Q2 2010 0.64

Chevron Corp Q2 2010 2.43

Merck & Co Inc Q2 2010 0.83

American Electric Power Co Inc Q2 2010 0.68

Source: Bloomberg

Earnings announcementsCountry Release NBF

Estimate

Company Time Qtr

Economic releases & eventsPeriod PreviousTime

Monday

Jul 26

TuesdayJul 27

Jul 30

Wednesday

Jul 28

Thursday

Jul 29

Friday


9/16


ECONOMIC TABLES

July 23, 2010 9

TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORSJuly 23, 2010

Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth Cumulated since

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year

Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

UNITED STATESMONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)

M1 * Jun 2010 1723 0.9 0.3 -0.7 1.8 4.4 4.6 6.7 15.2M2 * Jun 2010 8612 0.4 1.0 -0.3 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.8 9.3

CREDIT MEASURES

Consumer Credit May 2010 2415 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -3.6 -4.0 -3.9 -4.0 -0.5Mortgage (Banks) * Jun 2010 3679 -0.6 -0.4 0.2 -3.2 -3.9 -4.7 -3.3 5.3Business * Jun 2010 1235 0.0 -0.8 -0.2 -7.4 -17.7 -17.1 -19.3 1.8

CANADAMONETARY AGGREGATES

M2+ gross * May 2010 1327 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.9 3.6 4.3 13.2Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) * Jun 2010 659 0.7 0.6 0.6 4.6 2.4 3.7 4.3 14.9

CREDIT MEASURES

Consumer * May 2010 461 0.3 0.8 0.4 8.0 9.4 9.0 9.3 7.6Mortgages * May 2010 988 1.0 0.4 0.6 7.6 7.0 7.4 7.0 8.4Short - Term Business Loans * Jun 2010 324 0.2 0.4 -0.7 -3.8 -11.3 -11.5 -14.5 3.2Business (S.T. + L.T.) * Jun 2010 1208 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.2Private (Consumer+Business) * May 2010 2656 0.4 0.4 0.3 5.0 4.4 4.4 4.0 5.9

Federal Debt * Jun 2010 562 -1.5 1.8 0.2 8.4 6.5 9.0 11.9 26.7INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATES

Reference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago

UNITED STATESINTEREST RATES

Federal Funds Target Rate * 22 Jul 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25Prime Rate * 22 Jul 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.253-month Treasury Bills * 22 Jul 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.11 0.16 0.06 0.192-year Bonds * 22 Jul 0.56 0.60 0.62 0.73 0.84 0.88 1.02 0.83 1.055-year Bonds * 22 Jul 1.67 1.76 1.81 2.02 2.23 2.30 2.54 2.35 2.5810-year Bonds * 22 Jul 2.93 2.99 3.03 3.24 3.49 3.50 3.78 3.59 3.7130-year Bonds * 22 Jul 3.95 3.98 4.01 4.16 4.41 4.38 4.64 4.50 4.60Corporate High-yield (Lehman) * 22 Jul 8.51 8.69 8.99 8.94 8.84 9.47 8.08 8.71 11.92Corporate Invest. Grade (Lehman) * 22 Jul 4.06 4.15 4.29 4.38 4.41 4.56 4.28 4.34 5.69

SPREADS

Corp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 22 Jul 5.58 5.70 5.96 5.70 5.34 5.97 4.30 5.12 8.21Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 22 Jul 1.13 1.16 1.26 1.14 0.91 1.07 0.50 0.75 1.98Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 22 Jul 3.79 3.83 3.86 4.02 4.27 4.27 4.48 4.44 4.41

EXCHANGE RATE

Major currencies, traded-weighted * 16 Jul 76.59 76.42 76.74 78.40 77.14 75.62 76.09 74.81 75.23

CANADAINTEREST RATES

Prime Rate * 22 Jul 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.42 2.34 2.29 2.25 2.25 2.25Target overnight rate * 22 Jul 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.42 0.34 0.29 0.25 0.25 0.2530-day commercial paper * 22 Jul 0.88 0.83 0.61 0.59 0.49 0.42 0.46 0.34 0.333-month Treasury Bills * 22 Jul 0.62 0.57 0.51 0.49 0.36 0.28 0.38 0.16 0.231-year Treasury Bills * 22 Jul 1.12 1.18 1.07 1.14 0.97 0.77 1.30 0.57 0.585-year Bonds * 22 Jul 2.41 2.50 2.47 2.64 2.70 2.66 3.20 2.54 2.5210-year Bonds * 22 Jul 3.21 3.24 3.20 3.34 3.43 3.43 3.72 3.42 3.4530-year Bonds * 22 Jul 3.77 3.77 3.73 3.79 3.92 3.94 4.06 4.01 4.02

SPREADS

Prime - 30d. Commercial paper * 22 Jul 1.87 1.67 1.89 1.83 1.85 1.88 1.79 1.91 1.92Long Term - Short Term * 22 Jul 3.15 3.20 3.22 3.30 3.57 3.66 3.68 3.85 3.79

CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS

3-month T-Bills * 22 Jul 0.46 0.42 0.36 0.35 0.22 0.17 0.22 0.10 0.04Long Term Bonds * 22 Jul -0.17 -0.21 -0.29 -0.38 -0.49 -0.44 -0.58 -0.49 -0.58

EXCHANGE RATE

US$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 22 Jul 0.9640 0.9632 0.9586 0.9621 0.9664 0.9531 0.9997 0.9504 0.9173Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 22 Jul 109.4 109.1 109.4 109.9 110.0 108.0 113.9 107.8 103.9

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) SinceReference Past Prev. Month beginning of year

Thursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

Dow Jones (U.S.) * 22 Jul 10322.3 0.3 1.0 -8.5 -7.3 1.5 16.2 -1.4 4.2S&P 500 (U.S.) * 22 Jul 1093.7 -0.1 0.7 -10.0 -9.5 0.2 14.6 -2.2 9.5NASDAQ (U.S.) * 22 Jul 2245.9 -0.7 1.5 -11.5 -10.8 1.8 16.6 -0.3 25.7S&P/TSX (Can.) * 22 Jul 11667.8 -1.1 2.4 -5.3 -4.1 2.9 11.8 0.3 26.5

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted


10/16


ECONOMIC TABLES

July 23, 2010 10

TABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORSJuly 23, 2010

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated since


Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of 12 Leading Indicators Jun 2010 -0.2 0.5 -0.1 5.1 8.9 7.0 8.4 9.8 -3.3

Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) Jun 2010 52.9 62.7 57.7 57.8 54.8 53.1 49.3 54.8 39.1I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) Jun 2010 56.2 59.7 60.4 58.8 58.5 55.7 45.3 58.5 39.4

Jun 2010 58.1 61.1 60.3 59.8 57.8 54.5 48.8 57.8 44.7

DOMESTIC DEMAND

Sales new autos & light trucks (000,000) Jun 2010 11.1 11.6 11.2 11.3 11.1 11.2 9.7 11.1 9.6Retail Sales Jun 2010 -0.5 -1.1 0.3 4.1 7.0 1.6 4.8 6.2 -9.7

- Motor vehicle Jun 2010 -2.3 -0.6 0.5 11.4 7.1 3.7 6.8 9.3 -20.8- Other Jun 2010 -0.1 -1.2 0.3 2.7 7.0 1.2 4.4 5.6 -6.4

Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) May 2010 0.2 0.0 0.6 4.2 4.3 1.8 4.6 4.0 -1.4Total ($ constant) May 2010 0.3 0.0 0.4 3.4 2.5 0.9 2.6 2.0 -1.6

Personal Income May 2010 0.4 0.5 0.4 4.4 3.3 -0.3 1.6 2.0 -1.6Personal Savings Rate (3) May 2010 4.0 3.8 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.8 6.4 3.7 4.5New Orders May 2010 -1.4 1.0 1.7 13.3 17.0 -2.5 14.4 15.2 -24.1

- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft May 2010 3.9 -2.8 6.7 31.4 15.8 -3.7 19.2 15.9 -26.3Unfilled Orders May 2010 0.2 0.4 -0.1 2.6 -3.5 -9.2 -3.2 -5.9 -5.3Business Inventories May 2010 0.1 0.4 0.7 5.9 1.2 -9.4 -1.5 -4.8 -6.4Inventories / Shipments Businesses May 2010 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.41 1.24 1.44Manufacturers' Shipments May 2010 -1.3 0.6 2.6 10.3 14.2 -3.6 12.5 10.8 -20.0Manufacturers' Inventories May 2010 -0.4 0.6 0.5 6.3 2.3 -8.9 -0.9 -3.7 -6.9Inventories / Shipments Manuf. May 2010 1.25 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.28 1.42 1.25 1.43Housing Starts (000) (1) * Jun 2010 549 578 679 602 610 592 583 610 533

New Home Sales May 2010 -32.7 14.7 12.1 35.5 -14.4 -4.4 -18.3 3.6 -36.8Existing Home Sales * Jun 2010 -5.6 -1.6 7.7 42.5 -9.3 13.3 8.5 12.2 -3.7

PRODUCTION

Industrial Production Jun 2010 0.1 1.3 0.3 6.6 6.9 -0.9 8.2 4.9 -12.2- Consumer Goods Jun 2010 -0.6 1.9 -0.9 1.0 4.7 1.0 6.8 4.9 -8.8- Hitech goods Jun 2010 1.2 1.4 1.5 18.6 15.5 6.7 19.8 19.2 -19.1

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCES

Exports May 2010 2.4 -0.7 3.8 18.5 22.1 -0.9 21.0 17.7 -18.5Imports May 2010 2.9 -0.4 2.9 23.1 26.7 -5.5 29.1 21.4 -28.3Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) May 2010 -42.3 -40.3 -40.0 -40.9 -39.2 -35.8 -24.9 -39.6 -28.7Real merchandise trade balance May 2010 -46.0 -44.2 -44.1 -44.8 -43.3 -41.4 -36.3 -43.4 -41.4Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) Jun 2010 -1333.5 -1359.4 -1413.1 -1255.2 -616.0 -753.8

INFLATION AND COSTS

Consumer Prices Jun 2010 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 2.1 -0.6- Excluding Food and Energy Jun 2010 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.8

PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy May 2010 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.7Industrial Prices, Finished Goods Jun 2010 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 5.7 1.3 2.7 4.8 -3.1Average Hourly Earnings (4) Jun 2010 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 3.4Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate Jun 2010 74.1 74.1 73.1 73.8 73.1 71.8 68.2 73.1 69.5

Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) * Jun 2010 5.6 1.2 1.8 30.3 -3.3 -4.2 1.3 0.4 -15.2LABOUR MARKET

New Jobs (000) (6) Jun 2010 -125 433 313 207 147 -14 -170 882 -3688- Manufacturing (000) Jun 2010 9 32 38 26 23 -9 -112 136 -1040- Services (000) Jun 2010 -117 420 246 183 135 30 356 811 -1897

Average weekly hours (6) Jun 2010 0.1 0.0 0.5 3.3 1.6 -3.9 1.0 -1.1 -6.9Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) Jun 2010 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.5 9.7 8.7

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates

QUARTERLY INDICATORS Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q1 2009 2009 2008 2007

GDP Chained 2005 dollars 2.7 5.6 2.2 -0.7 -6.4 -5.4 -2.4 0.4 2.1Consumption 3.0 1.6 2.8 -0.9 0.6 -3.1 -0.6 -0.2 2.6Residential Construction -10.3 3.7 18.9 -23.2 -38.2 -23.2 -20.5 -22.9 -18.5Business Investment 2.2 5.3 -5.9 -9.6 -39.2 -19.4 -17.7 1.6 6.2

- Machinery and Equipment 11.4 19.0 1.5 -4.9 -36.4 -25.9 -16.6 -2.6 2.6Government Spending -1.9 -1.3 2.7 6.7 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.1 1.7Exports 11.3 22.8 17.8 -4.1 -29.9 -19.5 -9.6 5.4 8.7Imports 14.8 15.8 21.3 -14.7 -36.4 -16.7 -13.9 -3.2 2.0Change in Inventories (1) (2) 41.2 -19.7 -139.2 -160.2 -113.9 -37.4 -108.2 -25.9 19.5GDP Deflator 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.9 0.0 1.2 2.1 2.9Personal Disposable Income 2.1 0.0 -3.6 6.2 0.2 3.4 0.8 0.5 2.2

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007Labour Productivity (4) 2.8 6.3 7.8 7.6 0.9 2.2 3.7 2.0 1.8

Unit Labor Costs (4) -1.3 -7.8 -7.6 0.1 -5.0 2.2 -1.9 1.0 2.4

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007

Current Account (current $) -436.0 -403.6 -390.0 -337.8 -382.3 -590.6 -378.4 -668.9 -718.1as a % of GDP -3.0 -2.8 -2.7 -2.4 -2.7 -4.1 -2.7 -4.6 -5.1

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007

Corporate Profits (8) 35.9 36.0 50.7 15.7 22.8 -64.4 -3.8 -11.8 -4.1as a % of GDP 10.9 10.2 9.5 8.7 8.3 7.8 9.2 9.1 9.3

* Update

(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold

(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey

(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey

(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes

Monthly Growth (%)

- Non-manufacturing (level)


11/16


ECONOMIC TABLES

July 23, 2010 11

TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORSJuly 23, 2010




Index of Leading Indicators (Stat. Can.) Jun 2010 1.0 1.1 1.1 13.5 13.3 3.1 13.3 9.2 -5.3

DOMESTIC DEMAND

New motor vehicle sales (000) May 2010 126.5 126.2 131.6 128.1 129.9 128.5 1541.9 650.5 593.3Retail Sales ($ current) * May 2010 -0.2 -2.2 2.3 5.9 5.9 2.0 5.2 6.7 -5.3

- Motor vehicle and parts dealers * May 2010 -0.5 -5.0 4.4 6.9 3.4 4.0 5.4 10.0 -14.1- Other * May 2010 -0.1 -1.4 1.8 5.7 6.6 1.5 5.2 5.9 -2.1

Retail Sales ($ constant) May 2010 0.4 -2.1 2.4 6.8 4.3 2.2 4.5 5.2 -3.7

Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) May 2010 0.4 0.4 1.4 9.3 12.5 -6.5 16.5 10.2 -19.2New Orders May 2010 2.5 0.6 -1.1 4.0 21.2 -6.7 33.8 17.1 -25.0

- Durables May 2010 6.7 0.1 -2.5 3.6 33.0 -10.0 68.7 26.1 -33.9Unfilled Orders May 2010 1.3 -0.4 -0.5 2.7 -7.0 -18.8 -9.0 -17.9 6.2Manufacturer's Inventories May 2010 -0.7 0.1 -0.9 -3.9 -5.6 -9.7 -6.8 -9.0 -0.7Inventories / Shipments Ratio May 2010 1.30 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.34 1.40 1.63 1.33 1.61Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) May 2010 0.4 0.1 1.6 10.3 12.4 -4.0 14.6 9.3 -19.3

Housing Starts (000) (1) * Jun 2010 192.8 198.9 206.3 199.3 198.8 183.3 143.4 198.8 129.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -8.2 -10.8 -3.9 -43.4 -14.2 26.4 -18.0 18.8 -14.1

Number of personal bankrupties (2) Mar 2010 8.7 -9.6 -8.7 -67.5 -29.9 21.5 -15.7 -9.8 31.0Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Mar 2010 -2.3 -3.8 -7.1 -56.1 -28.6 -13.3 -27.2 -23.8 -10.2

PRODUCTION

Real Domestic Product Apr 2010 0.0 0.6 0.2 4.7 4.8 -1.1 3.3 2.4 -3.0- Manufacturing Apr 2010 -0.3 1.7 1.2 15.1 10.8 -7.0 7.1 4.1 -12.6- Construction Apr 2010 0.1 0.8 -0.7 5.4 9.1 -4.2 5.5 3.6 -6.2

Services Apr 2010 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.0 3.6 1.3 3.0 3.0 -0.6

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCES

Exports May 2010 5.2 -1.3 -0.4 5.4 19.9 -13.8 21.3 8.1 -23.3Imports May 2010 5.7 -1.4 2.7 18.5 15.2 -8.8 17.4 6.8 -12.3

- Capital Goods May 2010 6.6 0.1 1.5 26.1 1.2 -13.6 4.8 -7.2 -2.7Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) May 2010 -503 -330 -356 -396 88 -225 -1,373 71 -303Change in Official Reserves May 2010 -816 174 -673 -438 -66 930 11,157 1,670 11,973

Level (US$): 56,027 Fiscal year

Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) May 2010 -43.9 -45.4 -47.0 -15.5 -4.4 -7.5

INFLATION AND COSTS

Consumer Prices * Jun 2010 -0.1 0.3 0.3 2.6 1.8 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.6- Excluding Food and Energy * Jun 2010 -0.1 0.3 0.4 2.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.3- Core inflation (4) * Jun 2010 -0.1 0.3 0.3 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9

Average Hourly Earnings (2) Jun 2010 -0.6 -0.4 0.1 -1.8 2.8 2.5 1.7 2.1 4.0Price of New Housing icluding land May 2010 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.8 3.7 -0.7 2.9 1.6 -2.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -2.5 -1.3 0.7 -3.6 2.9 14.4 4.9 14.0 -5.0

Industrial Prices (1992=100) May 2010 0.3 0.4 -0.4 0.9 1.8 -3.1 1.4 -0.1 -0.9

LABOUR MARKET

Labour Force Jun 2010 0.3 0.2 0.5 3.2 1.4 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.8Job creation (000) Jun 2010 93.2 24.7 108.7 75.5 51.4 31.0 372.3 308.4 -252.9

- Manufacturing Jun 2010 -14.3 2.7 -20.6 -10.7 -4.5 -1.9 -22.6 -27.1 -181.3

- Services Jun 2010 103.4 32.4 106.6 80.8 48.3 27.8 333.4 289.7 19.9

- Full Time Jun 2010 49.0 67.2 43.9 53.4 34.6 28.7 345.0 207.5 -336.7- Part Time Jun 2010 44.2 -42.5 64.8 22.2 16.8 2.3 27.3 100.9 83.8

Unemployment Rate Jun 2010 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.1 8.1

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates

QUARTERLY INDICATORS Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007

GDP Chained (2002) $ 6.1 4.9 0.9 -2.8 -7.0 -3.1 -2.5 0.5 2.2

Consumption 4.4 3.9 3.8 2.2 -1.1 -2.7 0.4 2.9 4.6

Business Investments 0.9 -9.8 1.1 -22.0 -41.6 -18.7 -19.9 3.4 3.3

-Machinery and Equipment 7.5 -8.1 17.6 -15.9 -41.3 -29.9 -20.3 -0.9 4.2

Residential Construction 23.6 26.3 9.1 5.9 -21.5 -24.5 -8.2 -3.7 2.8

Government Expenditures 1.9 6.9 6.6 1.5 3.1 4.6 3.5 3.9 2.7

Final Domestic Demand 4.7 5.0 5.3 -0.2 -7.6 -4.8 -1.8 2.8 4.0

Exports 12.0 13.8 9.5 -15.9 -31.5 -15.2 -14.2 -4.6 1.2

Imports 14.1 12.4 27.3 -1.9 -38.7 -24.9 -13.9 1.2 5.9

Change in Inventories (1) 8.2 -1.2 -1.6 -1.8 -6.9 5.6 -2.9 9.0 12.2

Real Disposible Income 1.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 -0.2 7.5 1.1 3.7 4.0Personal savings Rate 2.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.2 4.7 4.5 3.6 2.8

GDP Price Deflator 4.4 4.4 3.8 1.0 -6.2 -12.9 -2.1 4.0 3.2

Corporate Profits (nominal) 39.1 36.8 44.5 -32.4 -55.3 -68.7 -32.3 8.0 1.9

as a % of GDP 10.8 10.2 9.6 8.9 9.8 11.5 9.6 13.6 13.1

Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate 74.2 71.3 68.6 68.1 70.2 75.5 69.5 77.9 82.4

Labour Productivity, Business Sector 3.1 4.7 -0.8 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.4 -0.9 0.0

Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector -1.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 4.0 4.7 2.3 4.0 3.5

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007

Current Account (current $) (1) -31.3 -40.8 -55.1 -49.8 -28.4 -30.2 -43.5 6.9 12.8

as a % of GDP -2.0 -2.6 -3.6 -3.3 -1.9 -1.9 -2.8 0.5 0.8

* Update

(1) Annual Rate, $ billions

(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted

(3) Current and before taxes

Monthly Growth (%)

(4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect

of indirect taxes


12/16


ECONOMIC TABLES

July 23, 2010 12

Economic and Strategy Team

TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSJuly 23, 2010




QUEBECDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales * May 2010 -1.8 -3.5 3.1 4.2 6.8 3.3 4.4 7.6 -3.2Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -0.8 1.1 0.1 -1.2 6.5 -6.1 12.2 5.4 -14.9Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 54.2 50.7 52.9 52.6 52.6 49.9 38.2 52.6 40.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -4.0 -7.1 -8.7 -46.5 -2.4 17.9 -9.8 17.3 -10.4

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.1 -0.6 0.9 1.1 3.8 1.8 3.0 2.9 1.6Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 -2.3 -3.2 13.4 18.9 11.0 -14.6 4.4 -2.8 -14.0Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 11.1 2.2 -15.6 -64.5 -26.1 14.1 -17.2 -12.9 21.7Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 10.0 -8.4 -14.9 -46.6 -23.8 -18.0 -26.7 -28.7 5.5

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 -0.1 0.1 0.3 2.1 1.1 1.1 0.4 1.5 0.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 -1.7 0.4 -0.3 -1.5 1.9 2.5 1.6 2.0 4.7Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.4 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.3 2.7 3.0 2.7 3.9Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.3 -0.5 3.6 2.6 6.4 8.7 6.4 9.7 1.0

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Jun 2010 30.4 -5.3 35.0 20.0 13.6 7.4 88.7 81.3 -25.3Unemployment rate Jun 2010 7.8 8.0 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.7 8.0 8.4Participation rate Jun 2010 65.7 65.4 65.5 65.5 65.2 65.1 65.6 65.2 65.5

ONTARIODOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales * May 2010 0.1 -1.4 3.4 11.7 5.2 1.9 5.8 6.1 -4.6Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 1.5 -0.1 1.1 10.4 15.2 -5.0 22.5 14.8 -21.9Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jun 2010 56.2 66.7 65.4 62.8 63.4 59.1 49.4 63.4 45.3Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -10.3 -13.0 -6.3 -47.5 -4.8 28.5 -17.3 24.2 -12.5

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.5 0.1 0.9 5.1 4.7 -0.3 2.7 2.4 -0.7Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 5.5 -11.3 20.1 89.2 19.5 -10.0 31.9 12.8 -24.6Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 10.3 -24.5 -4.6 -75.0 -35.1 20.8 -20.8 -14.0 33.7Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -9.1 -3.4 0.7 -70.0 -26.8 -7.0 -22.6 -17.9 -22.0

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 -0.2 0.4 0.3 3.5 2.6 0.8 1.6 1.8 0.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 -0.3 -1.1 0.7 -2.7 2.8 1.9 0.8 1.7 3.2Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.7 3.7 0.7 3.0 1.9 0.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.2 -0.1 -2.5 -9.9 9.9 14.0 5.6 15.5 -2.6

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Jun 2010 60.3 17.7 40.5 39.5 27.7 16.7 200.4 166.2 -155.0Unemployment rate Jun 2010 8.3 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.4 8.9 8.9Participation rate Jun 2010 67.6 67.5 67.3 67.4 67.3 67.2 67.3 67.3 67.4

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales * May 2010 -1.7 -3.8 3.3 6.4 4.0 4.2 2.1 6.6 0.4Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 0.6 41.8 49.0 177.3 -22.6 -13.1 74.0 11.3 -42.8Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jun 2010 4.6 4.5 5.4 4.8 5.3 4.3 3.2 5.3 3.2Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.8 -3.6 -5.5 -27.2 17.2 8.2 6.4 18.6 -10.7

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 -0.2 1.2 0.6 4.9 3.3 4.0 -1.6 2.7 6.3Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 17.8 33.1 0.8 66.8 -27.5 -35.3 -6.0 -4.1 -33.7Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 1.6 23.0 -19.1 -53.0 -33.7 17.9 -16.3 5.5 -1.6Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 #DIV/0! -100.0 100.0 -87.0 -21.0 21.4 100.0 -33.3 -47.1

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 0.0 0.2 -0.1 1.7 3.1 1.2 1.2 2.4 0.6Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 1.2 -1.7 -1.7 -4.6 8.6 4.9 7.5 6.0 3.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.2 1.1 0.0 5.7 7.2 6.3 6.2 5.6 18.9Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -1.7 0.3 1.0 6.7 21.4 12.8 9.1 14.9 20.4

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Jun 2010 -8.1 7.6 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 4.4 1.6 -2.1Unemployment Jun 2010 14.7 13.8 15.0 14.5 14.8 15.4 15.6 14.8 15.1Participation rate Jun 2010 59.4 61.0 59.8 60.1 59.9 59.8 59.3 59.9 59.0

PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales * May 2010 -2.2 -1.7 2.8 5.8 8.8 2.8 5.5 7.7 -2.3Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -7.7 -2.7 7.1 0.3 -13.3 -9.1 -15.4 -12.9 -0.2Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 6.8 -4.3 0.7 40.9 31.3 3.0 21.4 11.7 4.3

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.4 0.6 0.4 2.1 -0.2 4.0 1.1 2.4 4.6Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 39.3 -18.8 37.3 79.2 -41.7 -10.5 4.1 -17.6 5.3Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -23.7 -25.5 21.4 -45.0 -0.8 15.6 -34.1 5.4 34.9Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 100.0 0.0 -66.7 -93.8 -36.0 92.9 0.0 0.0 33.3

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.6 2.3 -0.3Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 -2.7 -1.7 0.1 -3.7 13.2 2.3 4.6 2.6 6.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -3.7 -2.2 0.3 -1.6 -1.0 0.6Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -7.2 -21.4 23.6 6.9 5.0 5.9 -7.5 4.7 4.9

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Jun 2010 0.3 -1.9 0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.1 1.6 -0.2 0.5Unemployment Jun 2010 12.3 10.7 9.5 10.8 10.6 11.2 12.2 10.6 12.3Participation rate Jun 2010 69.1 67.8 68.7 68.5 68.6 68.5 68.0 68.6 67.8

Monthly Growth (%)


13/16


ECONOMIC TABLES

July 23, 2010 13


TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)July 23, 2010


Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of yearOtherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

NOVA SCOTIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales * May 2010 -1.7 -2.0 2.2 8.2 5.7 4.4 4.2 7.9 -2.6Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 2.9 1.1 5.1 23.0 3.5 -7.8 4.7 4.3 -15.5Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jun 2010 3.2 6.1 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.3 2.9 4.4 2.8Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 3.4 -8.3 -5.0 -16.1 -2.3 8.0 -5.2 11.6 -18.7

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.7 1.3 0.1 6.9 3.6 2.1 3.8 3.4 2.0Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 9.8 0.3 13.3 31.4 -3.2 -18.2 7.8 -4.4 -23.0Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 10.5 -4.1 -7.8 -62.5 -18.9 15.1 7.7 5.0 17.5Number of c ommercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -25.0 -33.3 -29.4 -35.4 -58.1 -7.3 -45.5 -10.3 -34.1

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.7 2.2 -0.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 -0.6 -1.2 -0.7 -2.9 8.0 4.0 3.6 4.1 6.0Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 2.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 0.0 -2.1 -0.2 -16.0 7.8 7.3 6.0 9.3 0.9

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Jun 2010 0.4 3.5 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.5 5.5 5.7 -1.0Unemployment Jun 2010 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.0 9.0Participation rate Jun 2010 64.7 64.6 64.1 64.5 64.2 64.4 64.5 64.2 64.5

NEW BRUNSWICKDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales * May 2010 1.2 -2.9 0.6 -0.2 4.7 4.1 5.5 7.4 -0.8Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -5.3 11.3 1.5 18.6 45.9 0.0 23.2 26.7 -27.5Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jun 2010 4.7 4.5 6.2 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.8 4.6 3.3Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 10.8 -14.6 -10.3 -50.0 -6.1 2.0 -6.2 4.7 -13.8

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.8 0.8 0.0 4.4 3.8 2.6 3.4 3.3 2.6Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 23.8 1.3 -1.2 14.3 64.1 1.8 45.2 39.9 -28.2Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 0.0 -0.5 -8.3 -66.0 -28.9 23.7 5.8 7.5 22.2Number of c ommercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -25.0 166.7 -72.7 -91.0 -14.8 -42.2 50.0 -37.0 -42.6

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.7 1.0 2.6 -0.1Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 0.2 -1.4 -0.4 -6.7 1.6 3.4 0.8 1.9 4.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.8 1.9 1.0 0.7 4.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 0.4 0.5 1.4 10.5 0.6 6.0 2.8 3.8 4.2

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Jun 2010 -4.4 -1.3 0.8 -1.6 -0.6 -0.4 -5.1 -3.8 -1.4Unemployment Jun 2010 9.3 8.8 8.5 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.0Participation rate Jun 2010 63.9 64.4 64.4 64.2 64.3 64.5 64.8 64.3 64.7

DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales * May 2010 0.6 -2.2 1.0 2.1 5.5 4.0 6.3 7.3 -3.3Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -0.5 -3.8 5.5 6.1 -4.9 -12.4 -7.7 -8.1 -5.0Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jun 2010 8.2 5.0 7.4 6.9 5.8 5.2 5.0 5.8 3.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -4.6 -6.8 5.8 4.8 -2.8 4.6 -2.9 5.5 -9.7

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 1.2 0.4 -0.2 3.2 2.7 1.8 2.8 2.1 2.8Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 3.1 -6.6 29.3 116.4 3.1 -19.2 -3.4 -10.6 -11.1Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 12.1 -23.5 1.7 -49.4 -38.9 15.8 -15.1 -10.8 19.6Number of c ommercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 28.6 16.7 20.0 720.2 -19.5 -17.8 350.0 29.4 -37.0

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.3 0.6 -0.2 1.0 1.1Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 1.0 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 3.3 2.7 3.7 2.4 3.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.2 0.4 0.4 9.2 5.5 2.5 4.8 4.1 4.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 2.7 -0.5 -0.7 -1.7 11.5 10.3 13.4 11.4 2.5

LABOR MARKET


SASKATCHEWANDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales * May 2010 -0.3 -2.1 1.6 0.5 -0.2 1.6 1.4 3.4 -1.6Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -1.7 2.4 4.8 28.9 13.8 -5.2 5.6 8.3 -7.0Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jun 2010 6.3 4.4 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.5 5.4 2.8Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -4.7 -0.5 -9.1 -28.5 -22.6 21.2 -8.5 8.1 -17.4

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.7 0.2 0.1 5.4 5.8 3.4 4.3 4.1 5.6Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 0.6 -11.2 8.4 -21.4 11.5 -18.3 4.6 4.7 -20.8Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 2.2 7.1 5.9 -35.4 -21.4 21.4 -9.8 5.6 16.0Number of c ommercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -25.0 -7.7 85.7 117.4 -60.0 13.5 -35.7 -10.5 -9.5

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 1.2 1.5Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 0.8 0.1 -0.2 -0.9 4.3 5.5 5.9 5.3 6.3Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 1.6 0.9 0.2 10.0 4.7 -0.3 5.8 2.6 -0.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 2.8 -4.9 4.2 3.3 1.8 4.2 5.6 4.6 2.8

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Jun 2010 2.1 -1.8 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.3 3.5 6.0 4.9Unemployment Jun 2010 5.5 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.6 5.0 4.7Participation rate Jun 2010 70.6 70.1 70.6 70.4 70.2 70.0 70.6 70.2 70.4

Monthly Growth (%)


14/16


ECONOMIC TABLES

July 23, 2010 14


TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)July 23, 2010




ALBERTADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales * May 2010 0.0 -2.3 0.5 0.5 7.3 -1.9 4.4 5.4 -10.5Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 0.3 -1.9 0.4 10.0 19.4 -12.2 12.1 7.2 -18.9Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jun 2010 27.2 29.7 29.7 28.9 29.0 27.2 20.3 29.0 14.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -11.9 -9.1 -0.7 -36.9 -30.0 12.3 -34.2 2.3 -14.1

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.9 0.8 1.2 9.8 3.0 -0.3 2.6 1.5 3.4Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 2.0 -1.8 6.3 13.3 28.4 -18.9 50.1 21.8 -37.3Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -6.9 7.9 -7.6 -64.8 -31.0 49.5 -9.8 -2.6 76.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 11.1 -15.6 0.0 -37.3 -1.0 -17.2 -31.8 -21.2 14.1

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -2.1 -0.2 2.5 0.2 1.4 5.0Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.4 2.0 -5.2 1.6 -0.6 -9.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.3 -1.2 0.6 3.3 -0.4 4.3 3.7 7.0 -8.5

LABOR MARKET


DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales * May 2010 1.5 -1.4 1.1 2.8 6.9 2.6 7.5 8.6 -8.5Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 2.1 -3.2 3.6 19.0 10.1 -7.5 12.7 7.5 -19.8Housing Starts (000) (2) * Jun 2010 27.1 25.8 28.5 27.1 27.4 23.2 13.8 27.4 13.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -9.3 -12.3 6.2 -44.1 -35.6 56.3 -22.5 26.3 -21.3

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.4 1.0 -0.5 4.3 4.0 -1.0 2.5 1.8 -1.2Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 9.3 3.5 12.1 89.5 16.0 -15.6 30.8 7.9 -18.2Number of personal bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 16.7 -2.7 -10.0 -55.1 -21.5 33.8 -8.9 -5.2 47.2Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Mar 2010 -35.7 40.0 5.3 -43.1 -54.7 -21.9 -62.5 -42.1 0.9

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) * Jun 2010 -0.2 0.4 0.5 2.6 1.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.6Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jun 2010 -0.3 0.7 0.1 3.9 4.7 2.9 4.2 2.8 4.0Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.3 0.3 0.5 5.1 6.3 -2.7 4.7 2.5 -6.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 1.5 -1.8 1.0 6.2 4.7 14.0 10.1 14.7 -8.2

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Jun 2010 6.4 -10.1 12.7 3.0 5.1 3.8 46.1 30.4 -42.5Unemployment Jun 2010 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.8 8.1 7.7 7.4Participation rate Jun 2010 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.9 66.1 66.0 66.2 66.1 66.0

Monthly Growth (%)


15/16


ECONOMIC TABLES

July 23, 2010 15


TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSJuly 23, 2010

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated sinceGrowth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year


OECD leading index May 2010 -0.1 0.1 0.2 2.9 7.8 4.1 8.3 9.5 -10.7

JAPANConsumer confidence - percenbtage (1) Jun 2010 43.5 42.8 42.0 42.8 41.3 40.5 37.6 41.3 31.3Retail Sales (1) May 2010 -3.0 -7.3 18.2 2.6 13.2 0.7 2.9 3.8 -3.5Industrial Production, Volume Index May 2010 0.1 1.3 1.2 12.8 25.5 -0.8 20.4 25.4 -30.6Exports May 2010 -1.2 2.3 -0.3 11.2 50.1 -4.2 34.6 40.3 -43.3Imports May 2010 0.4 6.4 -3.1 17.7 48.1 -15.1 33.0 23.0 -36.5Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ) May 2010 416 508 701 541 571 504 261 2,821 -624Current account (Billions of ) May 2010 905 1,380 1,785 1,356 1,365 1,345 1,056 6,938 4,086Inflation (CPI) May 2010 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.7 -0.9 -1.1 -0.3Job offers to applicants ratio May 2010 0.50 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.47 0.45 0.46 0.48 0.54Unemployment Rate May 2010 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.7

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) 5.0 4.6 0.4 6.9 -15.8 -9.6 -5.3 -1.2 2.3

Euro-zone

Volume Retail Sales * May 2010 0.1 -0.8 0.7 0.2 0.7 -1.1 0.2 0.1 -3.2Industrial Production Apr 2010 0.8 1.6 0.7 15.8 11.9 -7.2 9.4 5.5 -18.8Exports May 2010 1.6 -3.1 8.2 40.5 23.1 -4.5 21.1 14.6 -21.1Imports May 2010 4.2 -3.0 10.2 55.8 27.4 -7.2 26.8 14.3 -21.7Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) May 2010 -2,968 150 326 -831 961 1,320 2,152 1,144 -388Inflation (CPI) Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 0.5 5.1 1.8 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.6Unemployment Rate May 2010 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.4 10.0 9.0

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007

Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) 0.8 0.5 1.6 -0.3 -9.8 -7.4 -4.1 0.5 2.7

UNITED KINGDOMConsumer Confidence (Diffusion index) Jun 2010 -11 -10 -6 -9 -7 -9 -18 -7 -25Retail Sales * Jun 2010 0.7 0.8 -0.2 6.9 -3.0 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.0Industrial Production May 2010 0.8 -0.7 1.7 8.0 2.9 -5.0 2.5 0.7 -12.1Exports (1) May 2010 0.2 -0.2 1.3 19.3 21.1 -0.2 20.3 14.0 -10.8Imports (1) May 2010 2.4 -0.2 4.9 21.6 21.3 -1.3 22.2 12.4 -11.0Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of ) May 2010 -8,062 -7,411 -7,418 -7,630 -7,054 -7,285 -7,170 -37,327 -34,491Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) Jun 2010 0.2 0.2 0.6 5.3 3.6 2.6 3.2 3.3 2.6Industrial Prices (1) Jun 2010 -0.3 0.1 1.6 9.3 6.2 3.0 5.1 4.9 1.4House prices Jun 2010 -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 -2.3 4.2 1.1 4.9 5.5 -15.9Unemployment Rate Apr 2010 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.6 7.9 7.2

Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 2009 2008 2007Gross Domestic Product (Constant ) * 4.5 1.3 1.7 -1.0 -2.8 -1.0 -4.9 -0.1 2.7

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.

Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago

JAPANPrime Rate * 22-Jul-10 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month Financing Bill Rate * 22-Jul-10 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.15

- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 0.01 -0.05 0.07 -0.04Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 22-Jul-10 1.06 1.08 1.14 1.19 1.26 1.29 1.31 1.33 1.38

- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 -1.88 -1.91 -1.89 -2.05 -2.23 -2.20 -2.46 -2.26 -2.33Exchange Rate (/U.S.$) * 22-Jul-10 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Euro Zone3-month Treasury Bills * 22-Jul-10 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.68 0.63 0.67 0.58 0.62 0.90

- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 0.66 0.63 0.60 0.53 0.50 0.56 0.42 0.56 0.71Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 22-Jul-10 2.64 2.64 2.59 2.70 2.92 3.10 3.08 3.23 3.30

- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 -0.29 -0.35 -0.44 -0.54 -0.57 -0.40 -0.70 -0.36 -0.41Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 22-Jul-10 1.29 1.29 1.27 1.26 1.31 1.38 1.33 1.41 1.42

(Yen/Euro) * 22-Jul-10 111.57 113.11 111.49 113.40 118.65 125.92 124.03 129.14 134.23(Euro / ) * 22-Jul-10 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.16 1.14 1.15 1.15 1.16

UNITED KINGDOMPrime Rate * 22-Jul-10 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.503-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 22-Jul-10 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.47 0.51 0.48 0.43

- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.42 0.24Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 22-Jul-10 4.25 4.18 4.18 4.29 4.42 4.34 4.56 4.39 4.61

- Spread with U.S. * 22-Jul-10 0.30 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.01 -0.04 -0.07 -0.11 0.01Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / ) * 22-Jul-10 1.53 1.55 1.52 1.49 1.51 1.57 1.54 1.62 1.65

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) SincePast Prev. Month beginning of year

Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

MSCI Eafe * Jul 2010 189 2.5 -0.4 -12.2 -10.3 -11.6 12.6 -8.1 4.9

Monthly Growth (%)


16/16


ECONOMIC TABLES

July 23, 2010 16

Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)

Last Prev. Week For the Last Last

Jul 22 Jul 15 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year

CRB Index

Total 483.0 482.0 0.2 2.0 0.5 1.9 -0.9 18.0 409.2

Energy 623.8 610.8 2.1 1.3 -0.4 -4.6 -3.9 14.7 544.0

Grain 331.0 335.8 -1.4 4.8 5.8 29.6 15.4 10.0 300.8

Industrials 444.0 432.0 2.8 -0.5 0.7 -35.1 -2.1 21.9 364.3

Livestock & Meat 322.5 319.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 -16.7 10.5 20.0 268.7

Precious Metals 927.5 935.8 -0.9 1.6 0.1 -10.0 5.3 28.4 722.0

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold ($/ounce) 1187.00 1211.75 -2.0 0.9 -3.1 15.8 15.6 24.3 955.25(AM fixing London)

Platinum ($/ounce) 1518.0 1529.0 -0.7 0.2 0.5 -42.9 -10.3 28.9 1178.0(AM fixing London)

Silver ($/ounce) 18.1 18.4 -1.2 3.1 -0.9 4.4 7.1 30.9 13.9(Handy & Harman)

Palladium ($/ounce troy) 453.0 470.0 -3.6 5.1 3.1 -56.6 -3.9 77.0 256.0

OTHER METALS (LME)

Aluminum ($/tonne) 2,022 2,000 1.1 1.6 3.6 -39.0 -16.2 14.6 1,765

Copper ($/tonne) 6,993 6,662 5.0 1.0 4.7 -30.4 -7.0 26.6 5,526

Zinc ($/tonne) 1,922 1,783 7.8 -2.4 6.9 -57.7 -34.6 14.7 1,676

Nickel ($/tonne) 20,182 19,336 4.4 0.0 2.2 -68.9 14.4 23.6 16,326

Lead ($/tonne) 1,920 1,780 7.9 -1.5 5.7 -49.8 -26.4 11.4 1,724

Uranium (Neuxco spot $/lb U308) 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! ####### $$"ER",

OTHER COMMODITIES

Oil ($/barrel) 1-month future 78.83 76.51 3.0 1.1 4.3 -18.6 8.6 19.4 66.01

(West Texas Intermediate)

Corn (/bushel) 348.5 364.0 -4.3 2.7 3.7 1.7 5.1 8.2 322.0

(Illinois #2)

Soy beans (/bushel) 1023.5 1029.5 -0.6 3.4 5.5 18.2 21.8 -1.6 1040.5

(Illinois #1)

Pork (/lb) 121.0 115.0 5.2 4.5 0.0 3.4 84.8 46.7 82.5

Beef (Cattle feeder index) 112.1 112.7 -0.6 -1.1 2.4 -1.1 32.9 10.8 101.2

(CME)

Woodpulp NBSK 1020 1020 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.8 51.0 52.2 670

Metric ton delivered in U.S.

Natural Gas (mmbtu) 4.69 4.47 4.9 -1.1 -0.6 92.8 -27.9 29.6 3.62

Henry Hub future NYMEX

Lumber 2X4 217 216 0.5 4.9 0.0 -75.4 -15.5 21.9 178

TABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICES

July 23, 2010

All prices are in US dollars

JUL 23 NBC Financial Group Weekly Economic Letter

Documents