14 th Rural India Trip 20 April 2015 SPECIAL REPORT Batlivala & Karani B&K Research [email protected]+91-22-4031 7000 Batlivala & Karani F ALLING WEAL TH EFFECT Land prices Gold prices RURAL JUGGERNAUT GETTING SQUEEZED F alling Incomes MSP hikes Wage growth BJP P olicies Inclement W ea ther Reducing NREGA & MSP Hikes WINNERS: Urban Food plays, Cotton Exporters, Logistic companies LOSERS: 2-Wheelers, Tractors, Consumer Durables, Rural Finance and PSU Banks
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JUGGERNAUT Inclement Weather GETTING …...RURAL INDIA 2 B&K R ESEARCH APRIL 2015 13th Rural India Trip 12 December 2014 1. SUBDUED FARM INCOMES FOR 2014/15: Lower MSP hikes with continuous
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The State-wise revised damaged area under rabi crops during end of February to till date due to heavy rainfall,hailstorms, thunderstorm and strong wind
S.No Name of Name of Crops (Area in ha) Total:Area
States (Period) Wheat (ha) Barley Pulses Mustard Horticulture Cumin Isabgol Coriander in lakh ha
Grand Total 24,242,770 7,510,120 8,874,540 10,613,160 12,855,730 15,893,080 55,746,630
Source: Planning commission, B&K Research
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B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Food Inflation - WPI
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-
10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0
Oct
-10
Jan-
11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr
-14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Food inflation (%)
Source: CSO, B&K Research
Food inflation to come down
The main reason for the food inflation that proved to be the Congress government’s undoing
was the supply side bottlenecks of the economy. Investments in infra & logistics will drastically
reduce possibilities of food inflation.
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B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Rajasthan-Haryana-PunjabWe started our journey from Kota (Rajasthan) and travelled north towards Amritsar (Punjab).
We covered over 1000 kms and a total of 3 states (Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab) and visited
important regions such as Sirsa (Haryana), the major mandi for cotton and grains in Ganganagar
(Rajasthan) and several affected villages and districts along our route. We interacted primarily
with farmers to get a sense of the impact the recent unseasonal rainfall has had on the region
and how the dynamics of the rural economy are undergoing a gradual change. Some of our
observations are highlighted below:
Unseasonal rainfall and hail has damaged crops
Along our route the states of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab have been impacted severely by
the unseasonal rainfall. As per the Indian Meteorological Department, rainfall was 10 times the
normal rainfall in Rajasthan at this time of the year, and about 4.6 times the normal rainfall in
Haryana for the same period. While Punjab does receive some rain at this time of the year due
to the western disturbances, the high velocity wind has caused some crop damage. This was
evident when we visited the farms and interacted with the farmers. However, Rajasthan &
Haryana has been impacted the most.
The major crops grown in this region include Wheat, Mustard, Barley and vegetables like lady
finger, coriander, cabbage etc. The maximum damage we witnessed was to the wheat and
mustard crop which as per the farmers have been damaged to the extent of 30-50%. In
addition to the rainfall the crops were also hit by hailstorms just when the crop was ripening
and this had led to lodging. Lodging refers to the term used to describe crop falling flat on the
ground due to heavy rain and winds which causes yield loss in the crop.
The mustard crop has turned black due to the rains and the seeds are very small in size
signifying the low quality of the crop. The wheat crop has been uprooted due to the heavy
rains which mean the crop is essentially damaged. A farmer in the Sirsa district demonstrated
this when he took stalks of the crop and rubbed them between his palms, what we saw was a lot
of chaff but only a few grains. He also warned us that due to the weather the wheat crop
becomes susceptible to fungal diseases which might just aggravate the situation
Farmer incomes impacted, pushing back discretionary spending
A sub-par kharif crop and now combined with a damaged rabi crop has brought farm incomes
under serious pressure. Many of the farmers we interacted with were worried about their
damaged crop and were unsure if they would be able to sell any of their crops in the market
due to the drop in quality of their produce. This has caused the farmers to push back their
purchases of items such as a new tractor/bike. Even though the farmers are expecting some
government support to come in, they are doubtful if they would be able to repay their loans,
some of which are at 24-30% p.a. As a result farmers are now waiting before taking any major
purchase decisions. Their hopes are now placed on government relief and a better monsoon
this year which should result in a good kharif crop
Rural Economy has come to a standstill
Farmers have been hit by a double whammy in FY15- kharif season witnessed delayed rains
leading to pressure on yields while rabi witnessed lower crop prices impacting farm profitability.
The situation has further worsened due to these unseasonal rains and farmers’ sentiments
14RURAL INDIA
B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
have taken a hit. Pressure on farm incomes is likely to keep consumption under check in the
near-term.
Wealth effect fading…reality setting in
Over the past 5 years land prices in these regions had run up significantly due to the building
of new highways and construction activity. However in the recent past land prices have now
stagnated and in some places have been falling due to a slowdown in construction activity and
lack of any deals in the market. This has dampened the wealth effect which was earlier driving
consumption and increased the pressure on the farm incomes. Based on our interactions
with the farmers we found that the earlier trend where the farmer would sell a
small piece of his land and move inwards was now decreasing due to the stagnant
prices. This has reduced the amount of money in the farmer’s hands and is now
affecting consumption as we see the rural economy losing its steam and come
to a standstill.
Shift from a consumption based model to an industrial based one
The previous government was focused on driving rural consumption through increased
allocations to their flagship program NREGA (National Rural Employment Guarantee Act).
Over the past few years NREGA was the driving force behind rural consumption. However
the farmers we interacted with expressed their discontent with the scheme as it has increased
labor rates and also created a scarcity of labor.
However, the new government at the centre aims to make the scheme more development
oriented and intends to provide work under NREGA that is more productive and asset creating.
In order to achieve this, the government will need to transform rural growth from being driven
by consumption (through increased NREGA allocations) to an industrial based growth story.
This of course is a long term shift, but is beginning with no significant increase in allocations
under the scheme
NREGA allocation
Year Allocation under NREGA (Rs mn)
2011-12 391,000
2012-13 330,000
2013-14 330,000
2014-15 340,000
2015-16 347,000
The fact that the government has not significantly increased allocations under the NREGA
signals their intention of creating a new model of growth for the rural economy driven by their
flagship Make In India campaign and hence we witness the slowdown in the rural engine as the
government curtails any increase in expenditure. Having said that what the government wants
to achieve is not simply a transformation from a predominantly agrarian economic model to a
predominantly industrial one but a shift of the labor force away from agriculture and into
industrial and service sectors thus significantly boosting overall wages and the standard of
living. The process however is a slow one and the side effects will be felt in the near term.
15RURAL INDIA
B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Wheat Farmer, Kota
Mustard Farmer, Rohtak
Wheat Farmer, Sirsa
The crop has been uprootedand damaged by theunseasonal rain and hail.Low realizations remain aconcern as farmers havedebt and are worried aboutrepayments
Mustard seeds are smallerthan usual signifying thelow quality of the crop thistime around
A farmer showing us theaffected wheat grains. Thegrains are smaller in sizeand there is a lot morechaff than usual
16RURAL INDIA
B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Grain Mandi, Ganganagar
Farmers and Traders, Ganganagar
Wheat Farm, Fazilka
One of the largest mandi’sin the region where farmersas far as 80 kms out cometo sell their grains. Storagestill remains a keyproblem at the mandi
Farmers have beencomplaining about risinglabour costs due to theNREGA scheme. Traderswere complaining of thelow quality crop arriving atthe mandi
The process of lodgingwhere wheat falls straighton to the ground due toheavy winds, seen here inFazilka Punjab
17RURAL INDIA
B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Ghaziabad- Muradabad-Rampur- Lucknow- Allahabad-VaranasiWe travelled ~900 kms along Ghaziabad to Varanasi belt in Uttar Pradesh, covering some of
the key agricultural regions in order to assess impact of unseasonal rainfall on crop output. In
the Ghaziabad to Muradabad belt, key crops grown are sugarcane, potato, Wheat, mustard
and green peas. As per the feedback from traders in the mundis and farmers in the region, for
sugar cane the per acre production has increased due to unseasonal rains. Potato too has seen
bumper production which has led to ~50% price decline and increased demand for cold
storage facilities. However, some of the regions like gajrola where wheat, mustard & green peas
are major crops, have been impacted by unseasonal rainfall with hailstorms. As per farmers,
damage would be around 30%-35% for wheat and 50% for mustard and green peas. However,
as per traders and middleman in the gajrola mundi, damage should not be more than 15%.
Muradabad to Allahabad belt, where major crops are wheat, mustard and green peas, has seen
the maximum impact due to unseasonal rainfall. As per the farmers in the regions like Rampur,
Bareily, Sitapur, Lucknow overall damage in wheat crop is expected to be around 40-50% with
normal wheat output per acre expected to decline from ~1 tonne to 0.6 tonne and in few
pockets the damage is expected to be ~80%. Even the traders in the mundis in these regions
indicated towards damage of ~30% for wheat and mustard. Moreover continued rainfall in
the region could further increase the overall damage to the crop output.
Also most of the farmers across these regions are unaware of any kind of relief package
announcement by the government. Moreover, as per the district president of Bhartiya Kisan
Union (lucknow), the current criteria for assessment of crop damage used by district heads and
for insurance claims on crop damage is unfavorable for smaller farmers and does not give the
actual picture of the overall damage.
We also met branch managers of few PSU banks in these regions and they too
indicated that there has been damage to the crops. Though currently they
haven’t seen increase in NPA’s, the actual impact of the damage would be seen
in next 6 months once the half yearly interest payment starts. Moreover, the
state government has directed them to go slow on the recovery process.
As per the cement dealers, demand remains weak, prices are stable and no major improvement
is expected in the near term. Also the retailers in the region indicated that demand scenario for
FMCG products remains stable, low price SKU’s continue do well in case of personal care
products and they haven’t seen any kind of downtrading or increase in unorganized market
activity. We also met few paint dealers to get view on Pidilite and Dr fixit and according to them
the product is seeing strong growth and has good acceptability in the market.
To summarize, wheat, mustard and green peas have seen the major impact in the region on
account of unseasonal rainfall and the crop damage is expected to be around 30-40%. This
could impact the farm income and consequently the rural growth in the region is likely to
remain subdued. The weakness in rural incomes would add to the stress on banking system,
especially for PSU banks in coming quarters due to delay in loan repayments and rise in NPA
levels and also for consumer durable, two wheeler sales due to postponement of buying.
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B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Wheat Farm, Moradabad belt
Mustard Crop, Navin Mandi
Wheat Farmer, Moradabad
Normal wheat output peracre expected to declinefrom ~1 mt to 0.6 mt due tounseasonal rainfall withhailstorm
As per the farmers, damagewould be around 50% formustard and green peas
As per the farmers overalldamage in wheat crop isexpected to be around 30-40% and in few pockets thedamage is expected to be~80%
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B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Traders in Gajrola Mandi
Cold storage facility, Hapur
Jaggery trader, Navin Mandi
Even the traders in themundis in these regionsindicated towards damageof ~30% for wheat,mustard and green peas
Potato has seen bumperproduction which has led to~50% price decline andincreased demand for coldstorage facilities
The per acre production forsugarcane has increaseddue to unseasonal rains,resulting in decline injaggery prices
20RURAL INDIA
B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Jalgaon-Dhule-Lasalgaon-NashikWe started our journey from Jalgaon and travelled West towards Nashik. We covered over 600
kms in Maharashtra including important regions in between such as Amravati, Akola, Jalgaon,
Dhule. We interacted primarily with farmers and a trader to get a sense of impact of the recent
unseasonal rainfall has had on the region and how the dynamics of the rural economy are
undergoing a gradual change. Some of our key observations are highlighted below:
Orange Farmer, APMC, Nagpur
Mango Trader, APMC, Nagpur
Unseasonal rain andhailstorm has not onlyimpacted yield but also thequality…
prices are stagnant withgood quality produce(arrivals remains low)fetching higherrealization…
Most of agri products inthe Mandi over the last 10/15 days is witnessing lowturnout from Maharashtrawhile turnout from MP, APand Chhhatisgarh hasincreased due tohailstorms and unseasonalrainfall in Vidharbha. Theincreased supply fromthese states curtailed pricerise in the Mandi
21RURAL INDIA
B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Garlic Farmer, APMC, Nagpur
APMC, Nagpur (Rainy day)
Orange and Mango Farms, Amravati
Lower realisation due topoor quality along withrising cost of produceremains a worrying factoramong the farmers…
Despite good qualityproduce, lack of enclosedstorage facility results inwastage…
Hailstorm affected yields…
22RURAL INDIA
B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Tractor Dealer, Akola
Tractor Operator, Akola
Wheat Trader, Dhule
Most of the farmers whotypically buy during GudiPadva have postponed theirpurchases due to concernsrelated to realisation fromcrop….
Expecting a pent updemand in this yearprovided normalmonsoon….
Rising competition andfalling/stagnant income offarmers is also impactingthe earnings of tractoroperators…
Quality of crop impactedin selected pockets withinthe same district due tounseasonal rain andhailstorm…
23RURAL INDIA
B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Wheat Farmer, Dhule
Wheat Farmer, Dhule
Vegetable Farmer, Nashik
Banks have been instructedto go slow on loan recoverydue to inferior produce…
Most of the farmers havestarted insuring fieldthrough crop insuranceschemes… however, theyare not happy with theamount of compensationand its mechanism…
Farmers have started toprefer branded agrochemical products…
24RURAL INDIA
B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
Agrochemical Dealer, Jalgaon
Farmers prefer provenproducts and hesitatetrying new products
25RURAL INDIA
B&K RESEARCH APRIL 2015
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By Market Cap (US$ mn) By Recommendation
92
64
23
0 3
129
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Buy OP UP Sell NR UR
no. o
f com
pani
es
33
158
120
020
4060
80
100120
140160
180
> $2bn $200mn - $2bn <$200mn
no. o
f com
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