JPM_Indonesia_Property_C_2014-05-07_1386436

www.jpmorganmarkets.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research

08 May 2014

Indonesia Property

Changes, challenges and choices

Property

Felicia Tandiyono AC

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia

Aditya Srinath, CFA

(62-21) 5291-8573

[email protected]


Cusson Leung

(852) 2800-8526

[email protected]

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited

Joy Wang

(65) 6882-2312

[email protected]

J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private

Limited

See page 72 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the

firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in

making their investment decision.

We initiate coverage of the Indonesia property sector with a positive

view on the housing development and Jakarta retail lease market

outlook, a cautious view on the Jakarta office lease outlook and a

negative view on apartment development over the next 12 months.

Property stocks have outperformed JCI by 14% YTD in anticipation of

better post-election infrastructure progress. Property stocks recently traded

at one standard deviation above the average sector discount, reflecting this

optimism. In the face of near-term headwinds, we think there are only

select opportunities across the property space for the next two to four

quarters. We rate Summarecon and Ciputra Development Overweight

and Pakuwon, Bumi Serpong Damai and Lippo Karawaci Neutral.

Near-term regulatory changes: Potentially negative across segments.

We believe any regulatory changes will be generally negative short-term

before becoming more positive long-term. Three regulatory changes to

watch, especially after the elections, are policies on government-

subsidized housing, zoning laws and building permits. There have been

predecessor policies within the past 24 months, but they have had issues

with clarity and execution.

Potential structural changes: Long-term positive across property

segments. Three potential structural changes that we believe are likely to

emerge in 2015 are: (1) infrastructure progress; (2) property industry

consolidation; and (3) mortgage product evolution. We believe all three

changes are likely to be positive in the longer term for property prices.

Supportive affordability: Positive for housing. Housing affordability

nationally is likely to remain supportive in 2014 and 2015, in our view.

The settlement of the mortgage disbursement scheme for housing

developments in 1QFY14 provides incentives for developers to promote

back mortgage payments to customers. Our mortgage rate assumption is

9% for end-2014 and 2015, still among low rates seen in the market.

12-month stock views: Selective opportunities. We expect Indonesian

property developers to continue to trade at one standard deviation above

their average discount to RNAV because we expect slow regulatory

changes, a positive impact from emerging structural changes in 2015 and

a stable mortgage rate outlook.

Figure 1: Property sector vs. JCI YTD

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg.

Figure 2: Sector RNAV discount band

(+/-1SD)

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

90

105

120

135

150

JCI (re-based)

Sector (re-based)

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

2Asia Pacific Equity Research

08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Table of Contents

Sector investment thesis .........................................................3

Sector catalysts........................................................................4

Positives .................................................................................................................4

Negatives ................................................................................................................4

Sector risks...............................................................................5

Sector performance drivers.....................................................7

Stock investment summary.....................................................8

Sector strategy ........................................................................................................8

Stock preferences ....................................................................................................8

Investment thesis summary......................................................................................9

Valuation metrics....................................................................11

Industry analysis ....................................................................13

Demand drivers.....................................................................................................13

Supply drivers.......................................................................................................16

Companies ..............................................................................17

Summarecon .........................................................................................................20

Ciputra Development ............................................................................................30

Pakuwon ...............................................................................................................41

Bumi Serpong Damai ............................................................................................51

Lippo Karawaci.....................................................................................................62


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Table 1: Indonesia property stock coverage

Price

(Rp)

PT

(Rp)

% to

PT Rating

Mkt cap

(US$ M)

Avg. TO

3 mos.

(US$ M)

RNAV/share (Rp)

YTD

perf.FY14E FY15E

BSDE 1,525 1,500 -2% N 2,317 3.7 1,982 2,063 16%

CTRA 990 1,700 72% OW 1,304 2.5 2,196 2,372 27%

LPKR 1,050 900 -14% N 2,104 8.8 1,164 1,225 15%

PWON 365 385 5% N 1,526 1.6 408 446 30%

SMRA 1,095 1,900 74% OW 1,372 2.2 2,395 2,694 34%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. Pricing data as of 6 May 2014.

Sector investment thesis

We initiate coverage of the Indonesia property sector with the following views:

We are most positive on the housing development and Jakarta retail lease

outlook.

We are neutral on the Jakarta office lease outlook.

We are negative on the apartment development outlook.

We have not published a view on hotels and industrial estates, as the property

companies under our coverage have low exposure to these segments.

Our 12-month views are influenced by potential regulatory changes. We believe

upcoming policies or supporting regulations are likely to address government-

subsidized housing, property zoning (which supports better city planning) and

building permits. These measures are likely to create negative sentiment for the

property sector near-term, in our view, though they may be positive for the sector in

the long run.

We are positive on the property sector in the long run in light of the potential for a

more reformist government post-2014. We see three potential structural changes for

the sector that are likely to emerge in 2015:

Infrastructure progress. The land acquisition for public infrastructure law will

become effective January 2015. The duration of land acquisition is 260-520 days,

based on the law. Therefore, actual construction progress may start in 3QFY15 at

the earliest or 3QFY16 at the latest.

Property industry consolidation. Two reasons: (1) The mortgage disbursement

scheme introduced last year may have created cash flow issues for smaller

developers that build high-rise developments. (2) Higher land tax in Jakarta and

other cities in Indonesia may have created cash constraints for smaller developers

that have large unsold landbank.

Mortgage product evolution. The trigger could be another round of fuel subsidy

removals, as in 2008. We think there is room for banks to offer mortgage

durations of more than 15 years or longer fixed-rate durations, assuming a

healthy banking sector. Most banks currently offer a fixed teaser rate for the first

12-24 months, followed by a floating rate for the remaining mortgage duration.

Floating rates are typically 300bps above fixed rates.

Prefer housing development and

Jakarta lease retail assets

Long-term positive, given

potential structural changes


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

We expect Indonesia property stocks to trade at one standard deviation above their

historical average discount within the next 12 months, or unchanged from current

valuation levels. Stock prices have partly reflected optimism regarding:

The enforcement of regulatory changes in stages.

The potential emergence of structural changes in 2015, which would create

positive sentiment for the sector.

A stable mortgage rate outlook that supports pre-sales growth.

Figure 3: Sector outperformance vs. JCI YTD

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.

Figure 4: Pre-sales versus mortgage rate


Sector catalysts

Positives

Rebound in housing pre-sales soon. The housing mortgage disbursement

scheme reached in 1QFY14 between property developers and banks lifted an

overhang on sales and hence should be positive for the sector, in our view. We

expect pre-sales to show signs of a rebound in 2QFY14 and a more pronounced

rebound in 2HFY14 due to increasing confidence among developers to launch

projects once election noise subsides.

Consolidation likely in FY15, given how policy-ridden the sector is. We believe

consolidation would likely favor the major property companies, which are the

companies in our coverage. Companies with stronger balance sheets will be the

most ready to acquire landbank or projects from midsize to smaller companies.

Infrastructure reform remains the long-awaited catalyst. The land acquisition

for public infrastructure law becomes effective January 2015. Any significant

pickup in infrastructure construction will likely be seen only in September 2015

at the earliest or 3QFY16 at the latest, in our view. The timeframe to clear land

acquisition issues is limited to 260-520 days, based on the law.

Negatives

A two-round presidential election would increase political uncertainty and

hence short-term negative sentiment toward the Indonesia equity market, in our

view. Indonesia property stocks, among other recently hyped infrastructure

beneficiary-themed sectors, may underperform non-infrastructure beneficiary-

90

105

120

135

150

1/1/ 2014 2/ 1/ 2014 3/1/2014 4/ 1/ 2014

JCI (re-based) Sector ( re-based)

Mar 14th,

Jokowi

announce

d as

president

candidate

Banks and developers agreed

on housing mortgage

disbursement

Apr 9th,

PDIP

parliam

entary

votes

disappo

ints

presidential

d isappoint

the market

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Pre-sales growth YoY Mortgage rate (RHS)

Sector expected to trade at 1SD

above average discount to RNAV


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

themed sectors. Our base-case scenario does not assume a two-round presidential

election.

Mortgage disbursements for high-rise residential continue to stall. The

specifics of the mortgage disbursement scheme for high-rise development

construction are still being discussed by developers and banks. We think

agreement will not be reached easily, as the construction of high-rise

developments requires higher technical skills. While there is a potential

alternative solutioni.e., developers opting for construction loans, with the

mortgage-provider banks to aid funding for constructionit is not appealing

from developers cash flow perspective, in our view.

Mortgage rates may rise following a 25bps forecasted increase for benchmark

interest rates this year. A mortgage rate increase of 25-50bps following an

interest rate rise would pose significantly less risk to pre-sales than would a 50-

100bps increase. The stock performance of property companies with high

exposure to development properties are at higher risk. Our base-case scenario

assumes that mortgage rates remain at current levels, an average of 9%, until the

end of 2014 and no fuel subsidy removal until 2015.

Sector risks

We identify several upside and downside risks to our view of the Indonesia property

sector, summarized in the following table.

Table 2: Upside/downside risks

Area of risk Type of risk

1. Potential for a new government Upside

2. Issuance of supporting regulations on Housing Law Downside short-term; Upside long-term

3. Another round of fuel subsidy removals Downside short-term; Upside long-term

4. Policy on government-subsidized housing Downside

5. Scarcity of contractors Downside (applicable only to high-rise development)

6. Further tightening measures issued by Bank Indonesia Downside (applicable only to development properties)


We rank the probability of risks materializing, from highest and lowest, as follows:

1. The potential for a new government: We believe the Indonesia stock market,

including the property sector, may re-rate near-term if the current favorite in

opinion polls is elected as Indonesias new president. Beyond that, Cabinet

composition will be key. An incoming Administration could introduce crucial

reforms that are positive for the Indonesian economy long-term.

2. Issuance of supporting regulations on Housing Law (UU no. 1/2011): We

think the initial round of supporting regulation issuance is likely to address city

planning for residential, commercial, industrial and public facility zoning. Jakarta

province is scheduled to release supporting regulation based on Housing Law

2011 by mid-2014.

3. Another round of fuel subsidy removals: Fuel subsidy removals are positive

for Indonesias economy in the long term, in our view, but we expect another

round of inflation hikes and potentially higher interest rates in response to such a

move. We think there is a smaller probability of another round of fuel subsidy

removals this year than next year.


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

4. Policy on government-subsidized housing: Government-subsidized housing has

long been debated by private developers for its unattractive returns, given fixed

selling prices. If fixed selling prices are amended, we believe there is likely to be

another push from government to pass on more obligations for private developers

to deliver subsidized housing. The specific obligations of private developers to

deliver the units of subsidized housing have not been clearly stated in prior

regulations.

5. Scarcity of contractors: This risk is relevant only for high-rise projects, in our

view. Housing construction typically employs midsize to small contractors, of

which there are many in Indonesia. High-rise project construction requires skilled

contractors, who are typically employed by the top few construction companies in

the country. These companies may be occupied with several national

infrastructure projects.

6. Further tightening measures issued by Bank Indonesia (BI): We think this

risk is low for now, as we believe BI has no strong reason to pursue further

tightening. The new loan-to-value and mortgage disbursement scheme effective

October 2013 seem to have successfully suppressed mortgage lending. Mortgage

growth has remained in the 0-3% range MoM and declined YoY. BI survey data

on residential prices suggest that housing prices have declined since September

2013. Our data on residential pre-sales growth suggest that transactions have also

declined significantly since September 2013.

Figure 5: Loan growth YoY, by type

Source: CEIC.

Figure 6: Loan growth MoM, by type

Source: CEIC.

Figure 7: BI survey on residential prices (14 cities)

Source: CEIC.

Figure 8: Quarterly pre-sales growth YoY*

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. * For property companies under our coverage.

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Housing + Apartment + Shophouses Vehicles

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Housing + Apartment + Shophouses Vehicles

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Sector performance drivers

Indonesia property stock performance is sensitive to pre-sales. Property companies

typically announce pre-sales data monthly or quarterly in the following one to three

months. Pre-sales data are a key driver of stock performance, as many Indonesian

property companies NAVs are driven largely by their development properties.

We have created a property sector index to track the share price movements of the

five property companies under our coverage. We believe Indonesia stocks do not

generally respond to results announcements due to the time lag between the booking

of earnings and pre-sales. Development property pre-sales are booked one to three

years late, depending on construction rates.

Ciputra Development and Summarecon announce pre-sales monthly. Bumi Serpong

Damai, Pakuwon and Lippo Karawaci announce pre-sales quarterly, although there

have been times their when pre-sales data were announced monthly.

Figure 9: Indonesia property sector index tracks pre-sales growth


Property share price performance is also driven by events like:

Significant landbank acquisitions

Sizeable project acquisitions

Major development launches

These events drive share prices because they add to future pre-sales growth

expectations, in our view.

We believe intraday base IDR lending rates issued by BI are the best leading

indicator of property pre-sales growth. Pre-sales growth has a strong negative

correlation with BI lending rates, at 0.7, the strongest correlation among economic

data.

Intraday base lending rate changes eventually translate into mortgage rate changes, as

well as in-house rates of installments to developers. This is the main reason why the

correlation with pre-sales is the strongest, in our view.

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Sector index performance Pre-sales growth YoY

Pre-sales announcement drives

stock performance most

Major acquisitions and launches

matter

Base IDR lending rates as

leading indicator of mortgage

rates


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Figure 10: Pre-sales versus inverted BI intraday base lending rate

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.

Stock investment summary

Sector strategy

Our 12-month view differs by property segment:

We are most positive on housing development and the Jakarta lease retail

outlook.

We are neutral on the Jakarta lease office outlook.

We are negative on the apartment development outlook.

Stock preferences

Our preferred stock is Summarecon (SMRA), followed by Ciputra Development

(CTRA). Both companies strategies focus on housing developments. SMRAs

revenue from housing development is around 70%, with 20% from lease retail.

CTRAs revenue from housing development is around 90%.

We employ a scoring system to determine our stock preferences. Our scoring system

considers growth outlooks, profitability, leverage and current valuations. These four

variables are the important variables in determining Indonesia property stock

performance, in our view.

Table 3: Indonesia property stocks scoring

Scores Growth Profitability Leverage Valuation

Sum of

scores

SMRA 4 3 3 5 15

CTRA 3 2 5 4 14

PWON 2 4 4 2 12

BSDE 1 5 2 3 11

LPKR 5 1 1 1 8

Data

Pre-sales

2014E

EBIT margin

2014E

Net DE

2014E

RNAV disc.

2015E

SMRA 38% 34% 0.04 -59%

CTRA 14% 32% 0.28 -58%

PWON 12% 43% 0.05 -18%

BSDE -1% 47% 0.04 -26%

LPKR 68% 28% (0.14) -14%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Pricing data as of 6 May 2014.

0.05

0.06

0.06

0.07

0.07

0.08

0.08

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Quarterly pre-sales Rp trn Inverted BI intraday base lending rate (RHS)

Preferred stocks: SMRA, then

CTRA


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Table 4: Indonesia property stocks RNAV contribution per segment

Development Investment

Low-rise High-rise Office Retail Hotels Others

SMRA 77% 1% 1% 18% 4% 0%

CTRA 95% 2% 0% 2% 1% 0%

PWON 21% 34% 5% 36% 4% 0%

BSDE 94% 0% 3% 1% 2% 0%

LPKR 69% 5% 0% 5% 7% 15%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Blue shading = We have a positive view on the segment; light grey shading = We have a

cautious view on the segment; dark grey shading = We have a negative view on the segment.

Investment thesis summary

The following summarizes our investment thesis by stock, based on our order of

preference:

Summarecon (SMRA): Replicating successful township model

We initiate coverage of SMRA with an Overweight rating and Jun-15 PT of

Rp1,900. SMRA plans to add its fourth township before the end of 2014. The fourth

township in Bandung could contribute 20% of SMRAs RNAV in three years time.

The fourth township is situated to benefit from tollroad construction plans within the

area. We are positive on the rental rate outlook of SMRAs lease retail assets in

Jakarta and Greater Jakarta.

Ciputra Development (CTRA): Housing focus

We initiate coverage of CTRA with an Overweight rating and Jun-15 PT of Rp1,700.

CTRA should benefit the most from the finalization of the housing mortgage

disbursement scheme between banks and property developers, in our view.

Management continues to focus on growing pre-sales nationally through joint

venture projects. These projects allow for higher pre-sales growth without additional

funding needs, as landbank is provided by the joint venture partners. The joint

venture strategy has proven to be as profitable as CTRAs non- joint venture projects

since 2011.

Figure 11: SMRA share price

performance

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure 12: CTRA share price

performance

Source: Bloomberg.

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

SMRA share price

JCI re-based

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

CTRA share price

JCI re-based

10


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Pakuwon Jati (PWON): Crucial time to expand

We initiate coverage of PWON with a Neutral rating and Jun-15 PT of Rp385. We

believe the positive outlook for PWONs lease retail assets in Jakarta is largely

reflected in the share price. Company plans for landbank acquisitions have yet to

translate into significant additions to project pipelines. We also think the market has

partly reflected potential positive news from the landbank acquisition plan, as this

plan was announced by management some time ago.

Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE): Early stage of diversification

We initiate coverage of BSDE with a Neutral rating and Jun-15 PT of Rp1,500. We

think BSDEs share price does not fully reflect the potential of the companys

strategy to expand across different property segments and different project locations.

We believe this diversification is likely to support the companys near-term growth

as growth prospects from BSDEs large flagship project in BSD City, west Greater

Jakarta area, start to decline.

Lippo Karawaci (LPKR): Hospital versus developing property

We initiate coverage of LPKR with a Neutral rating and Jun-15 PT of Rp900. We

think there are opportunity costs to LPKRs strategy of focusing on hospital and

lease retail in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities across Indonesia. LPKR appears to have been

forgoing opportunities in housing development and Jakarta investment property,

which provide higher returns and profitability, in our opinion. LPKRs ambition to

grow hospital and lease retail is weighing on its balance sheet and profitability, as

evidenced by its having the weakest ROE and margin among companies under our

coverage. However, we think the monetization of hospital or lease retail assets,

though infrequent, may provide one-off gains and much-needed capital.

Figure 13: PWON share price

performance

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure 14: BSDE share price

performance

Source: Bloomberg.

Figure 15: LPKR share price

performance

Source: Bloomberg.

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

PWON share price

JCI re-based

1000

1500

2000

2500

BSDE share price

JCI re-based

500

1000

1500

2000

LPKR share price

JCI re-based

11


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Valuation metrics

We derive Indonesia property stocks Restated Net Asset Value (RNAV) using a

DCF methodology for development properties, assuming continuous pre-sales and

applying a single cap rate for investment properties. We do not use market values

because they are not publicly available, and property transactions data are also not

transparent.

We set companies price targets at either one or two standard deviations above the

average sector discount to respective RNAV. The bases for our discounts are:

Companies with higher development property exposure should trade at least at

1SD above the average sector discount a year from now because: (1) the

mortgage rate outlook is unchanged at 9% in FY14-15; and (2) pre-sales are

expected to grow c20% in FY14-15, similar to FY13. We expect sector pre-sales

to grow 21% in 2014 and 19% in 2015 vs. 23% in 2013. 1QFY14 pre-sales

reached only 15% of our FY14 estimate, but we expect c65% of pre-sales to be

achieved in 2HFY14.

Companies with higher investment property exposure should trade at least at 2SD

above the average sector discount a year from now because: (1) investment

property companies have historically traded at 1SD above developers; and (2) our

12-month 10-year bond yield outlook of 8% is approximately where current

yields are trading.

Indonesia property stocks currently trade at almost one standard deviation above

their historical average discount. The sector had traded at an average 40% discount to

RNAV, with a 6% discount to RNAV at the peak and a 61% discount to RNAV at

the bottom since FY06. We calculate that one standard deviation is equivalent to a

15% discount, based on available historical data.

Figure 16: Indonesia property stocks historical discount to RNAV


-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Sector average Mean +1SD -1SD +2SD -2SD

Sector is almost at a +1SD

discount to RNAV

12


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Table 5: Indonesia property stock coverage

RNAV/share (Rp) Pre-sales (Rp tn)

Investment

prop./gross RNAV

Price

(Rp) PT (Rp) % to PT Rating

Mkt cap

(US$ M)

Avg. TO

3 mos.

(US$ M) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

YTD

perf.

BSDE 1,525 1,500 -2% N 2,317 3.7 1,982 2,063 7.2 8.9 5% 6% 21%

CTRA 990 1,700 72% OW 1,304 2.5 2,196 2,372 10.2 11.8 4% 3% 37%

LPKR 1,050 900 -14% N 2,104 8.8 1,164 1,225 6.9 8.5 11% 11% 18%

PWON 365 385 5% N 1,526 1.6 408 446 3.4 3.9 42% 45% 30%

SMRA 1,095 1,900 74% OW 1,372 2.1 2,395 2,694 5.1 5.9 19% 22% 40%


Table 6: Indonesia property sector valuation metrics

Prem. (disc.)

to RNAV

P/E - overall

(x) EPS growth P/B (x) ROE

Pre-sales

growth

P/E -

development

only (x)

Net cash

(debt)/equity EBIT margin

FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

BSDE -23% -26% 9.9 9.8 0% 1% 1.7 1.5 17% 15% -1% 23% 9.1 8.3 0.04 0.09 47% 41%

CTRA -55% -58% 11.1 8.9 39% 25% 1.3 1.1 12% 12% 14% 16% 8.2 7.3 0.28 0.37 32% 30%

LPKR -10% -14% 8.2 15.3 140% -46% 1.4 1.3 17% 9% 68% 23% 12.6 20.9 (0.14) (0.18) 28% 21%

PWON -10% -18% 12.3 10.3 26% 19% 3.3 2.7 27% 26% 12% 16% 8.4 7.2 0.05 0.12 43% 42%

SMRA -54% -59% 13.3 9.9 8% 34% 2.8 2.3 21% 23% 38% 14% 10.7 10.0 0.04 0.01 34% 28%

Avg. -31% -35% 11.0 10.8 42% 7% 2.1 1.8 19% 17% 26% 18% 9.8 10.8 0.05 0.08 37% 33%


Figure 17: Regional property sector valuation matrix

NAV Core EPS growth Dividend yield P/B (x)

Net

gearing EPS/BVPS

discount FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY14E FY14E FY14E

China property

Sector average (market cap weighted) -46% 23.3% 17.2% 5.1% 5.3% 0.9 44% 16.2%

Hong Kong property

Developer average (market cap weighted) -39% 0.4% -4.0% 3.2% 3.2% 0.7 11% 6.0%

Investor average (market cap weighted) -33% 4.0% 7.7% 3.0% 2.9% 0.7 15% 3.8%

REIT average (market cap weighted) -12% 9.9% 5.7% 4.4% 4.6% 0.7 19% 4.0%

Singapore property and REITs

Developer average (market cap weighted) -21% 13.6% 9.4% 0.9% 1.9% 1.1 31% 4.9%

REIT average (market cap weighted) -4% -2.1% 1.4% 5.8% 6.0% 1.0 34% 6.1%

Malaysia property

Developer average (market cap weighted) -37% 39.2% 15.3% 2.4% 2.7% 1.4 19% 8.4%

REIT average (market cap weighted) 4% 6.4% 5.5% 4.8% 5.2% 1.0 22% 6.2%

Thailand property

Sector average (market cap weighted) NA 0.4% 17.7% 4.2% 4.5% 2.2 66% 17.7%

Philippines property

Sector average (market cap weighted) -26% 26.5% 14.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.9 27% 12.8%

Indonesia property

Sector average (market cap weighted) -27% 48.3% -0.5% 1.2% 1.7% 2.0 3% 18.9%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. Pricing data as of 29 April 2014.

13


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Industry analysis

Demand drivers

We expect a rebound in housing pre-sales within the next two to three quarters.

Developers and banks agreed in 1QFY14 on a simple, yet effective mortgage

disbursement scheme for housing, in compliance with the new Bank Indonesia

regulations.

Housing construction progress and mortgage disbursements are now split into four

stages. The new mortgage disbursement scheme issued by Bank Indonesia in

September 2013, effective October 2013, is based on construction progress for any

individuals first mortgage, rather than an upfront lump sum payment to developers.

Table 7: Mortgage disbursement for housing

Developers deliver construction of Banks disburse mortgage principal portion

Post-1Q14 Foundation 50%

Roof 30%

House completion 10%

Change of ownership title 10%

Pre-3Q13 None 100%

Source: Company data.

Pre-sales declined in the past two quarters as developers prefer that housing buyers

pay using installments to developers, rather than mortgages, since September 2013.

Housing buyers are delaying purchases due to this payment method preference.

We believe the use of mortgages as a payment method should rise and contribute up

to 50% of developers pre-sales within the next two to three quarters. The use of

mortgages as a payment method for housing purchases declined to an average 10%

of total housing transactions in 4QFY13 and 1QFY14 from an average 55% prior to

the introduction of the new mortgage disbursement scheme.

Figure 18: Quarterly pre-sales (Rp tn)


Figure 19: BIs IDR intraday base lending rate

Source: Bloomberg.

We calculate that the national housing affordability ratio has been low since 2006,

suggesting positive support for housing demand in FY14 and FY15. We expect

mortgage rates to remain at 9%, near the record-low average of 8.5% in FY12.

Our definition of the housing affordability ratio is the proportion of household

income employed to service mortgages. The lower the ratio, the better affordability

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

Housing pre-sales expected to

rebound in next two to three

quarters

Supportive affordability

14


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

is. Aside from the mortgage rates assumed, we also assume three working persons

per household, a 70% loan-to-value with 15 years mortgage duration and an average

of 60-120 sqm houses.

Figure 20: National housing affordability ratio

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 21: Pre-sales growth*

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates. * For property companies under our coverage.

Figure 22: Change of employment in Indonesia (000s)

Source: CEIC.

Figure 23: Average YoY wage growth in Indonesia

Source: BPS, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Agreement on a mortgage disbursement scheme for apartment sales has yet to be

reached. We believe a solution can be reached by the end of 2014. We expect the

contribution of apartment pre-sales to total pre-sales to recover to 20% in 2015 from

an estimated 10% in FY14.

We also do not foresee a structural change in apartment demand near-term. An

estimated 50% of apartment demand should continue to be driven by end user

demand, with the remaining 50% investor-driven. We believe structural changes for

apartment demand in Indonesia, which is 95% dominated by apartments in Jakarta,

will emerge only when there is a meaningful progress on Jakarta MRT construction.

Table 8: Jakarta MRT construction schedule

MRT line Length of line (km) Target operation Current status

South-North 1 15.7 2018 Construction of 13

stations (6 underground

and 7 above ground)

South-North 2 8.1 2020 Completed due diligence

East West N/A 2027 Conducting due diligence

Source: www.jakartamrt.com.

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

(1,000)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

No sign of near-term apartment

pre-sales rebound

15


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Figure 24: Pre-sales, by type


We expect demand for lease retail floors to continue its healthy run since early 2013.

Pre-committed space in lease retail assets in Jakarta to date is high, with vacancy

rates remaining low, at below 5%. No new lease retail building permits have been

issued for Jakarta since late 2012, so there is no new supply of lease retail starting

2015.

There are several demand drivers for lease retail space, which supports our bullish

view on lease retail assets:

Foreign retailers expansion. Competition in the retail sector continues to

intensify, with more foreign companies trying to serve the large and young

population in Indonesia. The most recent foreign competition was Sephora from

the U.S., which plans to open in Kota Casablanca mall, Jakarta, this year.

J.P. Morgans ASEAN consumer analyst Princy Singh believes there is potential

for upward revisions in retailers capital expenditures once the election is over.

We expect new store space growth of 5% YoY in 2015 after a potential 20%

decline in 2014.

Domestic retailers same-store sales growth has recovered steadily after

bottoming in 1Q13. We expect a normalization of same-store sales growth

between 5% and 10%, depending on target consumer segments.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1Q

06

2Q

06

3Q

06

4Q

06

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

12

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

13

High-rise Non high-rise

Positive on Jakarta lease retail

demand over lease office

16


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Figure 25: New store expansion plan growth (%)


Figure 26: Same store sales growth*

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. * Same-store sales growth of retail companies

under our coverage, excluding Ramayana (typically does not rent retail floor).

Lease office demand is likely to be negatively affected by the slowdown in

Indonesias economy, as well as lower business expansion demand prior to the

election wrap-up, in our view. We believe the appetite for strata office will continue

to be irrational, as it has always been, and provide support and reduce rental rate

volatility near-term.

Figure 27: Indonesia GDP growth and FDI trend

Source: Bloomberg.

Supply drivers

We believe the volume of housing development launches is likely to increase starting

2Q14, now that there is an agreement on mortgage disbursement stages for housing.

We see no reason why most developers will not be ready to launch more products in

2H14.

There is no inventory concern in the market because housing supply is determined

purely by developers pre-sales rates. Developers typically do not run the risk of

over-supply because pre-selling activities are conducted prior to construction.

The majority of property companies in Indonesia rely significantly on housing

development pre-sales to generate cash. Four out of five property companies under

our coverage are likely at net cash to equity. Election noise should start to abate in

October 2014, in our view, as soon as more clarity emerges on the shape of the new

government.

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Average new store space Y/Y growth, (RHS)

0%

100%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Average

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

FDI in US$ millions (RHS) Real GDP YoY growth

Developers control supply;

expect more launches in 2H14

17


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Figure 28: Indonesia property companies net cash (debt) to equity


Table 9: Indonesia 2014 election schedule

7-9 May Legislative election final result announced

11-18 May Legislative seats allocation; Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates announced

June-September New legislative parliament members announced

9 July Presidential and Vice Presidential election; quick count of presidential election

July-October Induction of new legislative parliament members

October Induction of new President and Vice President, assuming no second-round election

October-November Presidential cabinet ministers announcement and induction, assuming no second-round

election

Source: www.pemilu.com,

Apartment developments in Jakarta, which represents around 95% of apartment

developments in the country, have gone under provincial government scrutiny.

Jakartas governor has been restricting building permit issuance for high-rise

buildings that do not follow the citys town planning since his term started in

October 2012.

We are positive on apartment selling prices and the lease retail rental outlook in 2015

due to the lack of new supply. The impact of the slowdown in building permits

issuance is likely to be most pronounced for lease retail, followed by apartment

supply in 2015 on, in our view.

We are neutral on the lease office rental outlook in 2015. The supply of lease offices

will be less affected, in our view. Some lease office development with older building

permits has recently been completed or has started construction, with target

completion scheduled to start from 2013.

Figure 29: Strata apartment (grade B+ and above) unsold rate Figure 30: Service apartment (grade B+ and above) vacancy rate

(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.1)

-

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

BSDE CTRA LPKR PWON SMRA

FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

High-rise building permits issue

Positive 2015 outlook for lease

retails rental and apartment pre-

sales

18


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service, JLL. Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service, JLL.

Figure 31: Lease retail (grade B+ and above) vacancy rate

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service, JLL.

Figure 32: Lease office (grade B+ and above) vacancy rate

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service, JLL.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

19


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Co

mp

an

ies



08 May 2014

Summarecon

Initiation

Overweight

SMRA.JK, SMRA IJ

Replicating successful township model; initiate with

Overweight

Price: Rp1,115

Price Target: Rp1,900

Indonesia

Indonesia Research


(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]


Aditya Srinath, CFA

(62-21) 5291-8573

[email protected]


Cusson Leung

(852) 2800-8526

[email protected]


Joy Wang

(65) 6882-2312

[email protected]


Limited

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

Rp

May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14

Price Performance

SMRA.JK share price (Rp)

JCI (rebased)

YTD 1m 3m 12m

Abs 36.0% -1.3% 18.0% -18.2%

Rel 23.6% -0.1% 9.1% -14.6%

Summarecon (Reuters: SMRA.JK, Bloomberg: SMRA IJ)

Rp in bn, year-end Dec FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E

Revenue (Rp bn) 3,463 4,094 5,120 7,623 8,707

Net Profit (Rp bn) 798 1,102 1,192 1,602 1,667

EPS (Rp) 114.89 76.40 82.60 111.06 115.52

DPS (Rp) 11.50 21.50 19.10 20.65 33.32

Revenue growth (%) 46.8% 18.2% 25.1% 48.9% 14.2%

EPS growth (%) 101.4% (33.5%) 8.1% 34.5% 4.0%

ROCE 71.8% 61.8% 44.1% 48.0% 60.8%

ROE 26.1% 27.3% 24.4% 26.7% 23.0%

P/E (x) 9.7 14.6 13.5 10.0 9.7

P/BV (x) 2.1 3.5 2.9 2.3 2.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 11.0 7.6 18.1 15.8 15.8

Dividend Yield 1.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 3.0%

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Company Data

Shares O/S (mn) 14,427

Market Cap (Rp bn) 16,085.86

Market Cap ($ bn) 1.40

Price (Rp) 1,115

Date Of Price 07 May 14

Free Float(%) -

3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 27.58

3M - Avg daily val (Rp mn) 29,093.85

3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 2.5

JCI 4862.07

Exchange Rate 11,519.41

Price Target End Date 30-Jun-15



firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor

in making their investment decision.

We initiate coverage of Summarecon (SMRA) with an OW rating and a

Jun-15 PT of Rp1,900. SMRA is trading at 54% and 59% discounts to our

FY14 and FY15 RNAV estimates, respectively. We are positive on

housing development and the Jakarta retail lease outlook. Our FY15E

RNAV for SMRA is 77% driven by housing development from its four

townships and 18% driven by its retail leases.

SMRAs business strategy. SMRAs management is preparing to

launch its fourth housing township by the end of 2014 and fifth township

in 2015. The company continues to replicate its successful strategy of

developing townships like its Kelapa Gading in North Jakarta to other

land banks. SMRA's malls anchor each of its township developments

and are likely to enjoy positive rental rate growth, on our estimates.

Positive on SMRA's strategy to deliver growth. We expect SMRAs

pre-sales momentum to be the best versus its peers, given the launch of

its fourth housing township, among other factors. We are also bullish on

its Jakarta malls rental rate outlook. We expect retail lease floor

expansion located in new townships to add contributions to the

companys growth in three to four years' time.

Key catalysts. The announcement of initial housing launches in the fourth

township, expected around 4Q14, will be key for the pre-sales growth

outlook in 2015-16. We believe continuously strong pre-sales growth in

the next few years is yet to be reflected in SMRAs share price.

Valuation and price target. We initiate coverage of Summarecon

(SMRA) with an OW rating. We set our PT at a 25% discount to our

Jun-15 RNAV. Our RNAV is calculated using DCF methodology for

development properties and applying cap rate for investment properties.

21


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Key catalyst for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view:

Positive pre-sales momentum in 1Q14

continues

Launch of fourth township, Bandung project,

scheduled in 1Q14

Lack of new mall supply in Jakarta starting

2015

Land or project acquisitions

Ability to pass on higher high-rise development

cost to buyers

Better-than-expected pre-sales from

development project launches

Town-planning permit issues

Scarcity of contractors to build high-rise

projects

Potential over-supply of residential units in

Bekasi

Key financial metrics FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Valuation and price target basis

Revenues (Rp bn) 4,094 5,120 7,623 8,707 Our PT of Rp1,900 is set at a 25% discount to our Jun-15 RNAV

estimate. Our PT assumes that SMRAs shares will trade one standard

deviation above the average sector discount to RNAV. Our RNAV

estimate is derived using a DCF methodology for development

properties assuming a 17.7% WACC and applying a single cap-rate for

investment properties assuming a 9.9% blended cap-rate.

Revenue growth (%) 18% 25% 49% 14%

EBITDA (Rp bn) 1,510 1,914 2,472 2,751

EBITDA margin (%) 37% 37% 32% 32%

Effective tax rate (%) 17% 18% 20% 21%

Net profit (Rp bn) 1,102 1,192 1,602 1,667

EPS (Rp) 76 83 111 116

EPS growth (%) 38% 8% 34% 4% Share Price discount to RNAV (Rp)

DPS (Rp) 22 19 21 33

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

-2 SD -1SD

SMRA share price Rp +1 SD

+2 SD

BVPS (Rp) 323 389 482 567

Operating cash flow (Rp bn) (1) 1,715 1,750 2,070

Free cash flow (Rp bn) (758) 639 230 276

Interest cover (X) 56 8 25 18

Net margin (%) 27% 23% 21% 19%

Sales/assets (X) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5

Debt/equity (%) 0.54 0.69 0.47 0.34

Net debt/equity (%) (0.01) (0.04) (0.01) 0.03

ROE (%) 27% 24% 27% 23%

Key model assumptions FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E

Housing ASP growth 49% 11% 0% 10%

Housing land sale growth -26% 12% 6% 11%

Mall average rental rate growth 6% 10% 16% 13%

Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates.

Sensitivity analysis RNAV EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates

Sensitivity to FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E EPS FY14E FY15E

1% chg in ASP growth (all segments) 5.9% 6.2% 0.7% 3.0% JPMe old NA NA

1% chg in volume sales grth (all segments) 4.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% JPMe new 83 111

1% chg in rental rate grth (all segments) 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% % chg NA NA

Consensus 80 87


Comparative metrics

Rating

Mkt Cap

RNAV

prem.(disc.) Inv.Prop./Gross RNAV P/E (development) YTD

$Mn FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

BSDE N 2,371 -21% -24% 5% 6% 9.3 8.6 21%

CTRA OW 1,353 -53% -57% 4% 3% 8.5 7.6 37%

LPKR N 2,138 -8% -13% 11% 11% 12.8 21.3 18%

PWON N 1,460 -14% -22% 42% 45% 8.0 6.9 30%

SMRA OW 1,362 -54% -60% 19% 22% 10.6 10.0 40%

Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices are as of 5 May 2014

22


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Investment summary

We initiate coverage of SMRA with an Overweight rating and a Jun-15 PT of

Rp1,900. SMRA is our preferred stock in the Indonesia property sector. We

believe SMRAs share price is likely to outperform most, amid issues clouding the

broader Indonesia property sector. Our positive stance on SMRA is due to:

1. Best pre-sales momentum. 1QFY14 pre-sales grew 75% QoQ, while sector pre-

sales declined 59% QoQ. The launch of its fourth development in 4QFY14 will

be vital in contributing to FY14 and FY15 pre-sales growth. The agreement

between banks and developers on the mortgage fund disbursement scheme for

housing development should further support SMRAs pre-sales, in our view.

2. Bullish on SMRA's retail lease assets. We believe Kelapa Gading mall in

Jakarta will benefit from the scarcity of new retail lease floor space in 2015.

SMRAs Serpong township will add a new leased commercial area, adding 20%

to retail lease space in the township. The new Bekasi mall, opened mid-2013,

should provide a higher contribution to total revenue in 2014, given strong

occupancy at 92% as of December 2013.

3. Attractive valuation. SMRA last traded at a 59% discount to 2015E NAV vs the

sector at a 33% discount. SMRAs share price has mostly underperformed the

sector index in the past 12 months, except for April 2014 when 1QFY14 pre-sales

were announced. We believe SMRA can outperform the sector index over the next

12 months, given its property segment exposure and township expansion plans.

Investment risks

The key risks for SMRA mainly come from political and regulatory events which

partly influence economic outcomes and sentiment towards the property sector

(please refer to the sector section for more details). The two other main risks to our

investment thesis are land or project acquisition and town-planning permit issues.

Management is searching for potential land bank or project acquisitions, preferably

in Jakarta, Greater Jakarta or nearby cities, to replicate its successful township

development further. Such acquisitions historically have added 20% upside to NAV

within the following two to three years.

Potential delays in launching SMRA's fourth township would likely be related to

town-planning permit issues, in our view. Management is, however, confident that

this risk is under control. Any delay from its scheduled 4QFY14 launch could create

up to 5% downside risk to our RNAV estimates for each delayed quarter.

Valuation and share price analysis

Our PT of Rp1,900 is set at a 25% discount to our Jun-15 estimated RNAV. We apply

a 25% discount to our June 2015E RNAV to reflect sector sentiment in 12 months

time. We argue property companies with high exposure to development properties

should trade one standard deviation above the sector average discount to RNAV.

Company description

SMRA was established in Nov 1975,

started operations in 1976 and was

listed in Aug 1996. SMRA is owned by

the Nagaria family. Members of

founding family are also currently

members of SMRAs Board of

Directors. SMRAs main land bank is

located in Serpong, west Greater

Jakarta. SMRAs current main projects

are its retail lease in flagship land

bank, Kelapa Gading, North Jakarta,

and residential township projects in

Serpong and Bekasi, west and east

Greater Jakarta, respectively.

Figure 33: RNAV 2015E breakdown

Low-

rise,

77%

High-

rise,

1%

Office,

1%

Retail,

18%Hotels

, 4%


Upside risks

Downside risks

PT at sector mean +1SD

23


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Our RNAV forecast for SMRA is calculated using the following assumptions:

DCF methodology for development properties. We assume a 17.7% WACC on

net cash flow after sales tax generated from development activities. Our WACC

rate assumes:

30:70 debt to equity, which reflects what we believe to be the comfortable level

of leverage for SMRAs management

8% risk free rate, which is in line with Indonesias 10-year bond yield

1.6x beta, which is the historical two-year average beta

5% long-term growth rate, in line with the long-term inflation rate in Indonesia

Single cap-rate for investment properties. We apply a 9.9% blended cap-rate on

net effective rent. Our blended cap-rate is calculated from weighted-average of:

8% cap-rate for lease office, in line with current cap-rate for grade B offices

10% cap-rate for lease retail, in line with current cap-rate for grade-A malls

10% cap-rate for hotel, in line with current cap-rate for grade B hotels

Table 10: SMRA RNAV breakdown

Rp bn 2014E 2015E

Development properties 27,856 30,481

Low-rise 27,717 30,258

High-rise 139 222

Investment properties 6,739 8,603

Office 193 208

Retail 5,420 6,855

Hotels 1,126 1,540

Others - -

Gross Asset Value 34,595 39,084

Net cash (debt) + minority adj. 120 (61)

RNAV 34,714 39,024

RNAV per share 2,406 2,705

Gross RNAV breakdown by segment

Low-rise 80% 77%

High-rise 0% 1%

Office 1% 1%

Retail 16% 18%

Hotels 3% 4%

Others 0% 0%


Risks to our price target

Our RNAV is largely driven by SMRAs housing development. A delay or failure in

the launch of any housing projects, existing or new townships, creates a downside

risk to our price target. Better-than-expected pre-sales achieved from launches within

the next 12 months would be positive for our RNAV FY15 estimates.

Table 11: SMRA's PT sensitivity to change in valuation assumptions

+/- 1.0% change Change in TP

Rf -/+ 4.4%

Beta -/+ 0.3%

LT g +/- 1.9%

WACC -/+ 6.6%

Cap rate -/+ 1.6%


24


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Share price analysis

SMRA share price has underperformed the JCI by 13% over the past one year and is

relatively in line with the property sector index performance. SMRA's stock

underperformance to the JCI was due to general weakness in the property sector

rather than due to company-specific reasons, in our view.

Property sector weakness in 3QFY13 and 4QFY13 was mainly due to the negative

impact from BI's LTV policy issued in September 2013. Pre-sales momentum started

to slow in 4QFY13 and slowed significantly in 1QFY14.

Table 12: Sector news events

3QFY13 BI issued new LTV requirement for mortgage & more restrictive mortgage fund disbursement

4QFY13 Data released on property sector pre-sales +85% QoQ in 3QFY13

1QFY14

Data released on property sector pre-sales -12% QoQ in 4QFY13

The scheme on housing mortgage disbursement was agreed between banks and developers

Jokowi was announced as a presidential candidate, widely seen to be reformist on infrastructure

matters among others

2QFY14 Data released on property sector pre-sales -59% QoQ in 1QFY14

Jakarta provincial government is formulating new building permit policy

Source: J.P. Morgan, Company data, Bloomberg

The period when SMRAs share price underperformed the property sector index the

most was in 3QFY13. We think this is because SMRAs pre-sales growth was

weaker than the sector, on a YoY and QoQ basis.

Figure 34: SMRA share price performance versus JCI and Property sector index

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

SMRA JCI index Property sector index

3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14...

Source: Bloomberg.

25


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Figure 35: Pre-sales growth YoY

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Sector pre-sales SMRA pre-sales


Figure 36: SMRA's RNAV discount to share price

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

-1 SD SMRA share price Rp +1 SD


Company analysis

Management strategy

SMRA's management is focused on replicating its successful flagship project,

Summarecon Kelapa Gading township, into other land bank locations. Management

is aware and has focused great effort in building Summarecon as a brand for property

buyers in Jakarta and Greater Jakarta.

SMRA also owns and manages retail leases in each township, which contributes a

steady recurring income for the company. Its retail lease in Jakarta is known as one

of the malls with the high foot-traffic during weekdays and weekends. Management

is charging close to grade A+ mall rates in prime CBD area for Summarecon Kelapa

Gading mall as a result. Management continues its retail lease expansion to other

land bank. Summarecon Mal Serpong has been garnering good credibility with

tenants amid rising competition in the area since it opened three years ago.

Figure 37: SMRA RNAV breakdown in 2013

79%

5%

1% 14%

2% 0%



Figure 38: SMRA RNAV breakdown in 2018E

65%

11%

0%

20%

4% 0%



Focused on replication strategy

26


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Location exposure

SMRAs property portfolio is mainly located around Jakarta and Greater Jakarta. The

fourth development will be located in Bandung, outside of Jakarta and Greater

Jakarta, around 150 km from Jakarta or around 130 km from Greater Jakarta.

Figure 39: Map of SMRA's project locations


Financial analysis

Income statement

We forecast 38% pre-sales growth for SMRA in 2014. Pre-sales for SMRAs low-

rise development are typically booked as revenue after 1.5 years onwards, upon

house handover. Pre-sales for SMRAs high-rise development are typically booked

as revenue based on the percentage of construction completion.

Two main revenue drivers for SMRA are housing developments and retail leases. We

estimate around 50% of housing developments to continue to be mainly driven by

pre-sales from Serpong and Bekasi townships. Around 50% of retail lease revenue is

driven by Mal Kelapa Gading, SMRA's first mall.

27


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Figure 40: Pre-sales trend

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

SMRA Quarterly pre-sales (Rp bn) Pre-sales growth YoY


Figure 41: Revenue breakdown

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Development Investment

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates., Company data

We forecast gross profit margin to decline starting 2014 as pre-sales being booked

are of newer housing and apartment projects. We expect both projects to book lower

margin due to recently higher construction cost. Construction costs, especially for

high-rise developments, have been on the rise in the past 12 months.

Table 13: Margin and growth

FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

GPM 46% 53% 60% 52% 51%

OPM 29% 33% 34% 28% 27%

EBITDA margin 33% 37% 37% 32% 32%

NIM 23% 27% 26% 22% 20%

Sales growth 47% 18% 25% 49% 14%

COGS growth 43% 4% 6% 79% 15%

EBITDA growth 71% 32% 27% 29% 11%

EBIT growth 79% 33% 28% 25% 8%

NI growth 104% 38% 22% 22% 7%


Balance sheet

We do not foresee balance sheet issues for SMRA. Current project pipelines should

be sufficiently financed by internal funding for the next 12 months, on our estimates.

We think the 2013 bond issuance and the April 2014s loan facility signed were

timely. Net cash build-up in 2014 is likely to decline in 2015 and 2016 as cash is

deployed for land acquisitions, apartment construction working capital and

investment property construction.

SMRA may need to seek external funding in 2016 if there is a sizeable land bank or

project acquisition opportunity within the next 12 months, in our opinion. This is

especially true if the acquisition pushes net gearing levels to above 0.3x, in our view.

28


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Figure 42: Net gearing (x)

(0.05)

-

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

'12 '13 '14E '15E '16E


Figure 43: Net cash/debt (Rp bn)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

'12 '13 '14E '15E '16E


Figure 44: Dilution history

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Basic EPS Fully diluted EPS


Cash flow

We estimate around one-third of 50% of SMRAs capex within the next three years

is allocated for land acquisition and preparation in fourth and potentially fifth

township in Bogor, Greater Jakarta. Another one-third of SMRA's capex is likely to

be spent on its investment property pipeline, i.e. commercial building in Serpong and

4-star hotel in Kelapa Gading.

Table 14: Cash flow key items

FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

CAPEX (Rp bn) (658) (782) (1,261) (1,599) (1,912)

CAPEX/Sales 19% 19% 25% 21% 22%

FCF 673 (758) 639 230 276

CFO 1,310 (1) 1,715 1,750 2,070


29


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Summarecon: Summary of FinancialsIncome Statement Cash flow statement

Rp in billions, year end Dec FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Rp in billions, year end Dec FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

Revenues 3,463 4,094 5,120 7,623 8,707 EBIT 1,011 1,347 1,722 2,153 2,327

% change Y/Y 46.8% 18.2% 25.1% 48.9% 14.2% Depr. & amortization 132 163 193 319 424

EBITDA 1,143 1,510 1,914 2,472 2,751 Change in working capital 499 (1,243) 299 (212) (67)

% change Y/Y 70.6% 32.2% 26.7% 29.1% 11.3% Taxes - - - - -

EBIT 1,011 1,347 1,722 2,153 2,327 Cash flow from operations 1,310 (1) 1,715 1,750 2,070

% change Y/Y 79.1% 33.3% 27.8% 25.0% 8.1%

EBIT Margin 29.2% 32.9% 33.6% 28.2% 26.7% Capex (658) (782) (1,261) (1,599) (1,912)

Net Interest (25) (27) (227) (98) (150) Disposal/(purchase) 1 2 0 0 0

Earnings before tax 986 1,319 1,495 2,055 2,177 Net Interest (25) (27) (227) (98) (150)

% change Y/Y 85.8% 33.8% 13.3% 37.4% 6.0% Other (104) (243) 0 0 0

Tax (194) (224) (272) (412) (465) Free cash flow 653 (781) 454 151 158

as % of EBT 19.7% 16.9% 18.2% 20.0% 21.3%

Net income (reported) 798 1,102 1,192 1,602 1,667 Equity raised/(repaid) 527 0 0 0 0

% change Y/Y 103.5% 38.1% 8.1% 34.5% 4.0% Debt raised/(repaid) (13) 1,356 1,394 (616) (535)

Shares outstanding 6,944 14,427 14,427 14,427 14,427 Other 41 92 0 0 0

EPS (reported) 114.89 76.40 82.60 111.06 115.52 Dividends paid (158) (310) (276) (298) (481)

% change Y/Y 101.4% (33.5%) 8.1% 34.5% 4.0% Beginning cash 1,496 2,428 2,545 4,117 3,355

Ending cash 2,428 2,545 4,117 3,355 2,497

DPS 11.50 21.50 19.10 20.65 33.32

Balance sheet Ratio Analysis

Rp in billions, year end Dec FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Rp in billions, year end Dec FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

Cash and cash equivalents 2,428 2,545 4,117 3,355 2,497 EBITDA margin 33.0% 36.9% 37.4% 32.4% 31.6%

Accounts receivable 106 179 224 333 380 Operating margin 29.2% 32.9% 33.6% 28.2% 26.7%

Inventories 2,820 3,058 3,108 2,303 1,458 Net margin 23.0% 26.9% 23.3% 21.0% 19.1%

Others 491 674 674 674 674

Current assets 5,846 6,456 8,123 6,664 5,009

. Sales per share growth 45.3% (43.1%) 25.1% 48.9% 14.2%

LT investments 597 844 844 844 844 Sales growth 46.8% 18.2% 25.1% 48.9% 14.2%

Net fixed assets 1,884 3,210 4,436 5,665 7,305 Net profit growth 103.5% 38.1% 8.1% 34.5% 4.0%

Total Assets 10,876 13,659 16,394 16,215 16,048 EPS growth 101.4% (33.5%) 8.1% 34.5% 4.0%

.

Liabilities Interest coverage (x) 46.6 55.5 8.5 25.2 18.4

Short-term loans 444 244 221 140 175

Payables 184 63 63 63 63 Net debt to equity (34.2%) (0.9%) (4.0%) (1.1%) 3.0%

Others 4,569 4,735 4,971 4,426 3,907 Sales/assets 36.5% 33.4% 34.1% 46.8% 54.0%

Total current liabilities 5,197 5,042 5,255 4,629 4,146 Assets/equity 310.9% 304.0% 307.4% 271.8% 222.7%

. ROE 26.1% 27.3% 24.4% 26.7% 23.0%

Long-term debt 678 2,257 3,674 3,139 2,569 ROCE 71.8% 61.8% 44.1% 48.0% 60.8%

Other liabilities 1,185 1,702 1,859 1,496 1,150

Total Liabilities 7,061 9,001 10,788 9,264 7,865

Shareholder's equity 3,815 4,658 5,606 6,951 8,183

BVPS (Rp) 528.93 322.85 388.56 481.80 567.18

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.



08 May 2014

Ciputra Development

Initiation

Overweight

CTRA.JK, CTRA IJ

Housing focus; initiate with OverweightPrice: Rp1,020

Price Target: Rp1,700

Indonesia

Property


(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]


Aditya Srinath, CFA

(62-21) 5291-8573

[email protected]


Cusson Leung

(852) 2800-8526

[email protected]


Joy Wang

(65) 6882-2312

[email protected]


Limited

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Rp

May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14

Price Performance

CTRA.JK share price (Rp)

JCI (rebased)

YTD 1m 3m 12m

Abs 30.8% -13.6% 10.3% -25.0%

Rel 18.4% -12.4% 1.4% -21.4%

Ciputra Development (Reuters: CTRA.JK, Bloomberg: CTRA IJ)

Rp in bn, year-end Dec FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E

Revenue (Rp bn) 3,323 5,077 7,806 9,989 11,842

Net Profit (Rp bn) 589 977 1,353 1,685 1,766

EPS (Rp) 38.84 64.40 89.21 111.10 116.42

DPS (Rp) 7.00 12.00 19.32 19.32 26.76

Revenue growth (%) 52.5% 52.8% 53.7% 28.0% 18.6%

EPS growth (%) 81.4% 65.8% 38.5% 24.5% 4.8%

ROCE 71.2% 65.0% 89.0% 139.0% 196.9%

ROE 11.0% 16.3% 19.6% 20.7% 18.6%

P/E (x) 26.3 15.8 11.4 9.2 8.8

P/BV (x) 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.6 7.7 12.3 10.6 10.3

Dividend Yield 0.7% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 2.6%

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

Company Data

Shares O/S (mn) 15,166

Market Cap (Rp bn) 15,469.14

Market Cap ($ bn) 1.34

Price (Rp) 1,020

Date Of Price 07 May 14

Free Float(%) -

3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 32.20

3M - Avg daily val (Rp mn) 33,676.19

3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 2.9

JCI 4862.07

Exchange Rate 11,519.41

Price Target End Date 30-Jun-15



firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor

in making their investment decision.

We initiate coverage of Ciputra Development (CTRA) with an OW rating

and Jun-15 price target of Rp1,700, at a 25% discount to our RNAV

estimate. CTRA last traded at a 55% and 58% discount to our FY14 and

FY15 RNAV estimates, respectively. We are positive on the housing

development and Jakarta lease retail outlook. 95% of our FY15E RNAV

comes from housing development at residential projects in 33 cities across

Indonesia, and less than 1% from lease retail assets in Jakarta.

CTRAs business strategy. Management plans to launch 11 new joint

ventures (JVs), three of which will be located in Jakarta. Its JV strategy

implemented since 2011 has been mainly to develop housing in tier-2

and tier-3 cities across Indonesia. The housing JV strategy has brought

strong pre-sales growth for CTRA since 2011.

Positive on CTRAs strategy. Among Indonesian developers, a JV

strategy is unique to CTRA, and allows faster pre-sales activity without

much capex. CTRAs Jakarta apartment JVs in 2014 are unlikely to be

as successful as its housing JVs, given mortgage disbursement and

building permit issues. However, CTRA does not fully own the

apartment projects, limiting downside risk potential.

Main event to watch. CTRAs share price has underperformed the JCI

and property sector index, particularly since September 2013, due to BI

LTV policy. We believe any sign of a turnaround in CTRAs monthly

pre-sales in 2Q or 3Q FY14 will be positively received as it suggests two

things: 1) the mortgage issue no longer weighs on pre-sales activity, and

2) returned confidence in launching projects after the election.

Valuation and price target. We initiate on CTRA with an OW rating

and Jun-15 PT of Rp1,700, at a 25% discount to our RNAV estimate.

Our RNAV estimate uses DCF to value development properties and

applies a cap rate for investment properties.

31


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Key catalysts for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view:

Turnaround in monthly pre-sales figures

Mixed-use project launches in Jakarta

Mortgage fund disbursement scheme

agreement for apartment projects

Better-than-expected pre-sales and

profitability contribution from joint venture

projects

Ability to pass on higher construction costs

for planned high-rise projects in Jakarta

Potential further increase in stake of

subsidiaries, Ciputra Surya and/or Ciputra

Property

Jakarta high-rise building permit issues

Expansion into budget hotels

Clinic/hospital development in owned townships

Key financial metrics FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Valuation and price target basis

Revenues (Rp bn) 5,077 7,806 9,989 11,842 Our Jun-15 PT of Rp1,700 is at a 25% discount to our Jun-15 RNAV

estimate. Our PT assumes that CTRA will trade at one standard deviation

above the average sector discount to RNAV. Our RNAV estimate uses

DCF to value development properties assuming a 19.5% WACC and

applying a blended cap-rate of 10.7% for investment properties.

Revenue growth (%) 53% 54% 28% 19%

EBITDA (Rp bn) 1,810 2,771 3,380 3,670

EBITDA margin (%) 36% 35% 34% 31%

Effective tax rate (%) 17% 16% 17% 16%

Net profit (Rp bn) 977 1,353 1,685 1,766

EPS (Rp) 64 89 111 116

EPS growth (%) 66% 39% 25% 5% Share price discount to RNAV (Rp)

DPS (Rp) 12 19 19 27

(1,000)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

-2 SD -1 SD

CTRA share price Rp +1 SD

+2 SD

BVPS (Rp) 644 756 900 1,050

Operating cash flow (Rp bn) 308 5,028 5,194 6,532

Free cash flow (Rp bn) (1,301) 2,856 2,068 2,608

Interest cover (X) (34) 25 (662) (27)

Net margin (%) 19% 17% 17% 15%

Sales/assets (X) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

Debt/equity (%) 0.28 0.17 0.12 0.06

Net debt/equity (%) (0.08) (0.28) (0.37) (0.46)

ROE (%) 16% 20% 21% 19%

Key model assumptions FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E

ASP growth for projects in JKT and G.JKT -34% 10% 10% 10%

Land sales growth for projects in JKT and

G.JKT 202% 5% 5% 5%

Mall average rental rate growth 24% 9% 9% 9%


Sensitivity analysis RNAV EPS JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates

Sensitivity to FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E EPS FY14E FY15E

1% chg in ASP growth (all segments) 8.2% 9.3% 0.9% 1.2% JPMe old NA NA

1% chg in volume sales growth (all

segments) 3.5% 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% JPMe new 89 111

1% chg in rental rate growth (all segments) 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% % chg NA NA

Consensus 79 97

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.

Comparative metrics

Rating

Mkt Cap

RNAV

prem.(disc.) Inv. Prop./Gross RNAV P/E (development) YTD

$MM FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

BSDE N 2,339 -22% -25% 5% 6% 9.2 8.4 19%

CTRA OW 1,330 -53% -57% 4% 3% 8.5 7.6 35%

LPKR N 2,124 -9% -13% 11% 11% 12.7 21.1 16%

PWON N 1,514 -11% -19% 42% 45% 8.3 7.1 34%

SMRA OW 1,372 -54% -59% 19% 22% 10.7 10.0 40%

Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices are as of 5 May 2014

32


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Investment summary

We initiate on CTRA with an Overweight rating and Jun-15 PT of Rp1,700. CTRA

is our second-most preferred stock in the Indonesia property sector, after

Summarecon (SMRA). We believe CTRA will outperform, despite issues clouding

the Indonesia property sector. Our positive stance on CTRA is due to:

1. Turnaround in pre-sales. We expect CTRAs pre-sales to recover from the 1Q

FY14 low in the next few quarters. Housing buyers delay their purchases when

mortgages were not CTRAs preferred payment method in 4Q FY13 and 1Q

FY14. We believe CTRA can realize the delayed pre-sales now that the mortgage

disbursement scheme has been addressed.

2. Expansion through its JV strategy. CTRA continues to monetize its strong

housing brand nationally by inviting JV partners, who are land bank owners,

since 2011. This strategy supports a higher pre-sales growth outlook without

requiring intensive capital expenditure. We believe this JV strategy, which is

unique among Indonesian developers, was made possible by CTRAs founders

prominence in the Indonesia property sector and the companys position as one of

the oldest developers in the country.

3. Attractive valuation. CTRA last traded at a 58% discount to our 2015 RNAV

estimate, versus the sectors 34% discount. CTRAs share price typically leads

that of other property companies during the turning point of sentiment towards

the Indonesia property sector. We believe this is because CTRAs property

portfolio serves all consumer segments across many cities in Indonesia.

Investment risks

Key risks for CTRA mainly come from political and regulatory events which partly

influence the economic outcome and sentiment towards the property sector (please

refer to our sector report for more details). There are two other main risks to our

CTRA investment thesis, i.e. higher pre-sales and profitability contribution from JV

projects and its Jakarta apartment projects building permit issues.

We see 12% upside risk to our RNAV estimate if housing sold in its JV projects can

deliver the same gross margin as those in its own projects. Many expect CTRAs

gross margin from development property to decline because of the nature of the JV

projects. JV partners typically share 30% of revenue, or 50% of projects profit as a

form of compensation for the land bank provided.

We see 5% downside risk to our RNAV estimate if there is a delay in Jakarta

apartment development projects launching this year. Delays in Jakarta apartment

projects could be caused by: 1) no agreement on the mortgage disbursement scheme

for apartments, and 2) high-rise building permit issues in Jakarta. To date, only one

of the three CTRA JVs in the Jakarta apartment market is close to obtaining a

building permit.

Company description

CTRA was established on

October 1981, started operating

in 1984, and was listed on the

Jakarta Stock Exchange in

January 1994. CTRA is owned by

the Ciputra family. Members of

the founding family are currently

also members of CTRA's Board

of Directors. CTRAs main land

bank is located in west and

south east Greater Jakarta.

CTRA currently operates 69

projects in 33 cities across

Indonesia

Figure 45: 2015E RNAV breakdown

Low-

rise,

95%

High-

rise,

2%Office,

0%

Retail,

2%Hotels

, 1%


Upside risks

Downside risks

33


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Valuation and share price analysis

We set our Jun-15 price target of Rp1,700 at a 25% discount to our RNAV estimate.

The 25% discount is to reflect our expectation of sector sentiment in 12 months time.

We argue that property companies with high exposure to development properties will

trade at one standard deviation above the sectors average discount to RNAV.

We estimate RNAV using:

DCF methodology for development properties. We assume a 19.5% WACC on

net cash flow after sales tax generated from development activities. Our WACC

rate assumes:

15:85 debt to equity, which reflects what we believe to be the comfortable level

of leverage for CTRAs management

8% risk-free rate, which is in line with Indonesias 10-year bond yield

1.6x beta, which is the historical two-year average beta

5% long-term growth rate, which is in line with the long-term inflation rate in

Indonesia

Single cap-rate for investment properties. We apply a 10.7% blended cap-rate on

net effective rent. Our blended cap-rate is calculated from the weighted average

of:

7% cap-rate for lease office, in line with the current cap-rate for grade A offices

11% cap-rate for lease retail, in line with the current cap-rate for grade B malls

10% cap-rate for hotel, in line with the current cap-rate for grade B hotels.

Table 15: CTRA: RNAV breakdown

Rp B 2014E 2015E

Development properties 32,867 34,581

Low-rise 31,233 33,997

High-rise 1,634 584

Investment properties 1,253 1,229

Office - -

Retail 947 833

Hotels 306 396

Others - -

Gross Asset Value 34,120 35,810

Net cash (debt) + minority adj. (823) 166

NAV 33,297 35,975

NAV per share 2,196 2,372

Gross NAV breakdown by segment

Low-rise 92% 95%

High-rise 5% 2%

Office 0% 0%

Retail 3% 2%

Hotels 1% 1%

Others 0% 0%


34


08 May 2014

Felicia Tandiyono

(62-21) 5291-8574

[email protected]

Risks to our price target

Our RNAV estimate is largely driven by CTRAs housing developments. A delay or

failure in the launch of any housing projects, in existing or new townships, is a

downside risk to our price target. A better-than-expected pre-sales achieved from

launches within the next 12 months will be positive for CTRAs RNAV.

Table 16: CTRA: PT sensitivity to changes in valuation assumptions

+/- 1.0% change Change in TP

Rf -/+ 4.4%

Beta -/+ 0.6%

LT g +/- 2.3%

WACC -/+ 1.6%

Cap rate -/+ 0.1%


Share price analysis

CTRAs share price performance has ge

JPM_Indonesia_Property_C_2014-05-07_1386436

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