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North America Equity Research
25 September 2012
StaplesOverweight
SPLS, SPLS US
Long Road Ahead But New Mindset Reflects a
Greater Sense of Urgency
Price: $12.35
Price Target: $14.00
Retailing Hardlines
Christopher Horvers, CFA AC
? ? ? ? ?
Mark A Becks
? ? ? ? ?
?
Rachel Stubins
? ? ? ? ?
?
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
YTD 1m 3m 12m
Abs -13.1% 13.8% -3.1% -8.1%
Rel -27.2% 10.6% -12.2% -33.4%
Staples (SPLS;SPLS US)
FYE Jan 2011A 2012A 2013E
EPS Reported ($)
Q1 (Apr) 0.28 0.30 -
Q2 (Jul) 0.22 0.18 -
Q3 (Oct) 0.47 0.45 -
Q4 (Jan) 0.41 0.44 -
FY 1.37 1.37 1.40
Bloomberg EPS FY ($) 1.37 1.37 1.43
P/E FY 9.0 9.0 8.8
EV/EBITDA FY 4.2 4.5 -
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
'Bloomberg' above denotes Bloomberg
consensus estimates.
Company Data
Price ($) 12.35
Date Of Price 24 Sep 12
52-week Range ($) 16.93 - 10.57
Mkt Cap ($ bn) 8.51
Fiscal Year End Jan
Shares O/S (mn) 689
Price Target ($) 14.00
Price Target End Date 31 Dec 13
See page 7 for analyst certification and important
disclosures.
10
12
14
16
$
Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12
Price Performance
SPLS share price ($)
S&P500 (rebased)
Staples announced its strategic restructuring plan to better
serve customers and
accelerate growth focusing on five key priorities: (1) online
growth, (2)
multichannel retail, (3) retail productivity, (4) restructuring
international, and (5)
stakeholder returns. Overall, we believe the plan addresses many
of the
underperforming areas of the company and attacks some of the
larger structural
concerns (i.e., store footprint and product relevance vs.
declining paper
consumption). We believe the efforts in International represent
another area of
potential cost savings above the $250MM target, and expect the
European plan to
continue to develop with some regions exited and more store
closures. This plan
is not a pure cost cutting to greater profitability story,
however, as a portion of
the identified $250MM savings program will be reinvested into
category
expansion, price, customer service, and potentially small
acquisitions. Hence, we
believe the pressure in the stock today is mainly attributable
to a perceived lack of
immediate P&L benefit, the removal of what was a potential
negative catalyst
to the structural short thesis, and a sales environment that
remains quite
challenging. In our view, while this reaction reflects the near
term realities of the
business, it also undersells the significant mindset change at
SPLS (as best
reflected by a new found willingness to more aggressively close
stores in the
U.S.).
$250MM cost savings to fund investments; a portion flows to the
bottom
line. SPLS is still determining exactly how much of the $250
million will flow
through to the bottom line as the company hones in on where
investments are
needed to increase relevancy to the customer, invest in price,
and streamline
operations. The $250MM is largely driven from indirect costs,
sourcing,
efficiency, and better technology usage. Note, the 15 NAR stores
that are to be
closed are profitable (though included in the net $250MM).
International cost savings bucket still forming: PSD $10MM,
Stores
$25MM+. With SPLS just working with work councils and the
strategic plan in
International still forming, we expect a cost bucket to emerge
out of this
division. Note Printing Systems is estimated to lose ~$10MM
annually ($0.01
in EPS) and the 45 store closures (while expensive given the
remaining lease
life) could add another $25MM+. Looking forward, we expect more
store
closures and exiting of certain geographies on the catalog
side.
www.jpmorganintelligence.comwww.jpmorganintelligence.com
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered
in its research reports. As a result, users should be aware thatthe
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report.
This material was originally prepared by a J.P. Morgan entity
(as identified in the material) in connection with its business and
is beingprovided to you as a courtesy in a modified format only for
informational and educational purposes (not investment purposes),
and on adelayed basis.
-
2North America Equity Research
25 September 2012
Christopher Horvers, CFA
? ? ? ? ?
ODP/OMX remain on notice. As discussed in our recent note, we
believe a
refocused SPLS that has the opportunity to step up its domestic
investments and
broadly invest in price is a negative for its competition over
time. We believe the
reduced International platform and cost cuts are the funding
mechanisms. Thus,
while ODP and OMX are outperforming Staples today on the 15%
footage
reduction plan, bigger picture, after being somewhat complacent
about its
challenges, SPLS newfound focus raises the stakes in the
industry, in our view.
NAR surprise: 15% footage reduction by 2015. Staples expects to
close an
additional 15 stores this year (net 30 closures and 30
reductions) with a 15% square
footage reduction by 2015. We note that the incremental closures
this year come at
a higher exit cost given the long remaining lease term (similar
to the 45 largely UK
locations). While some of the stores will be relocated to
smaller boxes, simple
math suggests that this represents nearly 300 of the companys
~1,900 NA store
base. Said differently, this represents 50-60% of the 500-550
stores for renewal
over the next three years, representing a significant change in
perspective from
management who has heretofore sworn off a larger store
downsizing.
International: 45 store closures, sub scale delivery businesses,
and European
printing systems on the block. SPLS also announced the plan to
close 45
international stores (we believe mostly in the UK), several
small scale delivery
businesses, and sell its European Printing Systems business.
Unlike the NA
business, no 2015 plan was unveiled but we believe this is
simply due to the greater
complexity surrounding international, regulatory discussions,
and new management
changes.
This material was originally prepared by a J.P. Morgan entity
(as identified in the material) in connection with its business and
is beingprovided to you as a courtesy in a modified format only for
informational and educational purposes (not investment purposes),
and on a delayed basis.
-
3North America Equity Research
25 September 2012
Christopher Horvers, CFA
? ? ? ? ?
Investment Thesis
Maintain Overweight on Optionality. Our rating reflects (1)
SPLSs market share
leadership; (2) the companys high correlation to a potential
economic rebound; (3)
the potential earnings power in a stronger economic environment
given high
incremental margins in the business, and (4) discounted
valuation. For SPLS, higher
sales growth should drive accelerating margin progression and
expense leverage,
ultimately leading to upward earnings revisions. We believe this
scenario, however,
is nearly 100% dependent on the economy barring more structural
changes.
Valuation
SPLS is currently trading at 8x and 8x FY12 and FY13,
respectively. We are
maintaining our $14 price target to reflect ~10x PE using our
2013 forecast, which
represents a discount to its historical average and our coverage
universe (this equates
to 5x EV/EBITDA). We believe this valuation is justified given
the relatively lower
growth profile, secular pressures facing the industry, and
uncertainty surrounding
international profitability. However, in a more robust recovery,
we still believe there
is potential upside to our multiple and earnings estimates the
double threat for
stock price performance.
Valuation Matrix
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg.
2011 2012E 2013E
EPS $1.37 $1.37 $1.40
PE 8.6x 8.6x 8.5x
Hist Av g 18.0x 16.0x
Hist Trough 8.0x 9.0x
Hist Peak 25.0x 22.7x
EBITDA $2,110.5 $1,997.7 $1,964.3
EV/EBITDA 4.4x 4.6x 4.7x
Hist Av g 8.5x 7.5x
Hist Trough 5.0x 4.0x
Hist Peak 10.6x 9.6x
Price Target $14.00
PE 10.2x 10.2x 10.0x
EV/EBITDA 5.0x 4.8x 4.7x
Upside/Downside 19%
This material was originally prepared by a J.P. Morgan entity
(as identified in the material) in connection with its business and
is beingprovided to you as a courtesy in a modified format only for
informational and educational purposes (not investment purposes),
and on a delayed basis.
-
4North America Equity Research
25 September 2012
Christopher Horvers, CFA
? ? ? ? ?
Coverage Matrix
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg.
Risks to Rating and Price Target
SPLS Key downside risks: Results are highly correlated to the
macro environment,
and deterioration in GDP and payroll growth could negatively
impact results. Will
the rational pricing environment hold? An irrational pricing
environment may
pressure margins beyond expectations. Furthermore, if the
international segment
continues to deteriorate and weigh on profitability we could see
downside to our
estimates. Secular issues surrounding increased electronics in
the mix and lower
paper consumption could suppress results and valuation for a
longer than expected
period.
Ticker PE Ticker EV / EBITDA Ticker PEG
2013E 2013E Ratio
VSI 24.0x TSCO 11.6x SPLS 3.9
TSCO 22.3x VSI 11.5x COST 2.2
COST 22.3x HD 10.0x WSM 1.8
PETM 18.4x COST 9.4x GPC 1.8
HD 18.1x ORLY 9.4x AAP 1.6
DKS 17.6x GNC 9.2x PETM 1.6
ORLY 16.0x PETM 8.8x HD 1.5
WSM 15.6x AZO 8.8x WMT 1.4
LOW 15.1x GPC 8.5x VSI 1.3
GPC 14.2x DKS 8.4x TGT 1.3
GNC 13.9x LOW 8.2x TSCO 1.2
WMT 13.9x WMT 8.0x DKS 1.2
TGT 13.3x TGT 7.8x ORLY 1.1
AZO 13.0x BBBY 6.7x BBBY 1.1
BBBY 12.1x WSM 6.6x HGG 0.9
AAP 11.9x AAP 6.1x AZO 0.7
OMX 10.5x SPLS 4.7x GNC 0.7
SPLS 8.4x ODP 4.4x ODP NM
HGG 7.4x OMX 3.4x OMX NM
ODP NM HGG 2.8x RSH NM
RSH NM RSH 1.1x LOW NM
Average 15.2x Average 7.7x Average 1.5
Median 14.2x Median 8.3x Median 1.3
This material was originally prepared by a J.P. Morgan entity
(as identified in the material) in connection with its business and
is beingprovided to you as a courtesy in a modified format only for
informational and educational purposes (not investment purposes),
and on a delayed basis.
-
5North America Equity Research
25 September 2012
Christopher Horvers, CFA
? ? ? ? ?
Staples Consolidated Quarterly Earnings Model ($ in millions,
except per share data) 53rd Wk
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011 1Q12 2Q12
3Q12E 4Q12E 2012E 2013E
North American Retail Sales $2,312.2 $2,010.5 $2,644.3 $2,562.7
$9,529.8 $2,328.1 $2,045.1 $2,656.6 $2,631.0 $9,660.8 $2,323.8
$1,989.1 $2,639.1 $2,799.9 $9,752.0 $9,545.1
North American Delivery Sales 2,462.7 2,359.4 2,537.1 2,490.0
9,849.2 2,511.6 2,433.2 2,582.7 2,528.4 10,056.0 2,555.1 2,412.8
2,575.0 2,715.5 10,258.3 10,393.4
International Operations Sales 1,282.9 1,164.3 1,356.2 1,362.71
5,166.1 1,333.2 1,341.3 1,330.6 1,300.3 5,305.3 1,225.9 1,096.6
1,196.3 1,260.6 4,779.4 4,689.9
Total Sales $6,057.8 $5,534.2 $6,537.7 $6,415.4 $24,545.1
$6,172.9 $5,819.6 $6,569.9 $6,459.7 $25,022.2 $6,104.8 5,498.5
$6,410.4 $6,776.0 $24,789.7 $24,628.3
COGS 4,438.7 4,071.5 4,733.9 4,694.8 17,939.0 4,536.5 4,279.2
4,737.1 4,727.4 18,280.4 4,495.1 4,071.2 4,646.4 4,982.5 18,195.3
18,151.3
Gross Profit 1,619.1 1,462.7 1,803.7 1,720.64 6,606.2 1,636.4
1,540.4 1,832.8 1,732.3 6,741.8 1,609.7 1,427.3 1,764.0 1,793.5
6,594.4 6,477.0
SG&A 1,220.5 1,158.0 1,264.7 1,270.0 4,913.2 1,270.8 1,246.0
1,283.6 1,248.0 5,048.5 1,248.4 1,192.4 1,262.1 1,302.4 5,005.3
4,914.0
Amortization of Intangibles 15.4 14.9 15.6 15.8 61.7 17.3 16.2
16.0 15.5 64.9 15.3 14.8 15.0 15.0 60.1 58.0
NA Retail Op. Inc. 176.5 105.7 279.6 208.2 770.1 177.3 102.9
284.2 240.0 804.4 171.0 88.4 274.3 266.4 800.1 751.3
NA Direct Op. Inc. 203.5 206.4 224.6 206.9 841.4 196.9 204.8
245.0 231.3 877.9 209.0 185.8 231.4 240.2 866.3 883.7
Intl Operations Op. Inc. 36.9 13.5 58.8 57.4 166.6 9.5 16.6 39.6
32.3 98.0 (2.8) (22.1) 11.7 (0.2) (13.4) (5.3)
Stock-based compensation 33.8 35.9 39.6 37.7 146.9 35.4 46.1
35.6 34.8 151.8 31.1 32.0 30.6 29.8 123.5 125.5
Consolidated Operating Income 383.2 289.8 523.4 434.8 1,631.3
348.3 278.1 533.2 468.8 1,628.4 346.1 220.1 486.9 476.1 1,529.1
1,505.1
must approach zero (0.1) 0.5 0.5 (0.8)
Interest and Other Ex pense, net 54.3 55.9 52.6 54.1 216.9 46.5
40.7 42.8 39.2 169.3 41.0 41.7 37.7 37.7 158.1 150.8
Pretax Income 328.9 233.9 470.9 380.7 1,414.4 301.8 237.4 490.4
429.6 1,459.1 305.1 178.4 449.2 438.4 1,371.0 1,354.3
Tax es 123.3 87.7 176.6 101.4 489.0 104.1 81.9 164.0 146.1 496.1
99.1 58.0 146.0 142.5 445.6 440.1
Net Income 205.5 146.2 294.3 279.3 925.3 197.7 155.5 326.3 283.5
963.0 205.9 120.4 303.2 295.9 925.4 914.1
Minority Interest 3.7 2.9 (0.0) 0.0 6.6 (0.6) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)
(0.8) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1)
Consolidated Operating EPS $0.28 $0.20 $0.41 $0.39 $1.27 $0.28
$0.22 $0.47 $0.41 $1.37 $0.30 $0.18 $0.45 $0.44 $1.37 $1.40
Diluted Shares O/S 732.1 729.7 721.8 721.2 726.2 717.4 708.7
698.0 692.0 704.0 689.4 679.1 671.1 670.1 677.5 654.9
Reported EPS (GAAP) $0.28 $0.20 $0.41 $0.39 $1.27 $0.28 $0.22
$0.47 $0.41 $1.37 $0.30 $0.18 $0.45 $0.44 $1.37 $1.40
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin 26.7% 26.4% 27.6% 26.8% 26.9% 26.5% 26.5% 27.9%
26.8% 26.9% 26.4% 26.0% 27.5% 26.5% 26.6% 26.3%
SG&A 20.1% 20.9% 19.3% 19.8% 20.0% 20.6% 21.4% 19.5% 19.3%
20.2% 20.4% 21.7% 19.7% 19.2% 20.2% 20.0%
Goodwill Amortization 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
NA Retail Op. Inc. 7.6% 5.3% 10.6% 8.1% 8.1% 7.6% 5.0% 10.7%
9.1% 8.3% 7.4% 4.4% 10.4% 9.5% 8.2% 7.9%
NA Direct Op. Inc. 8.3% 8.7% 8.9% 8.3% 8.5% 7.8% 8.4% 9.5% 9.1%
8.7% 8.2% 7.7% 9.0% 8.8% 8.4% 8.5%
Intl Operations Op. Inc. 2.9% 1.2% 4.3% 4.2% 3.2% 0.7% 1.2% 3.0%
2.5% 1.8% (0.2%) (2.0%) 1.0% (0.0%) (0.3%) (0.1%)
Total Operating Expenses 20.4% 21.2% 19.6% 20.0% 20.3% 20.9%
21.7% 19.8% 19.6% 20.4% 20.7% 22.0% 19.9% 19.4% 20.4% 20.2%
Total Operating Margin 6.3% 5.2% 8.0% 6.8% 6.6% 5.6% 4.8% 8.1%
7.3% 6.5% 5.7% 4.0% 7.6% 7.0% 6.2% 6.1%
Interest and Other Ex pense, net 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
Pretax Income 5.4% 4.2% 7.2% 5.9% 5.8% 4.9% 4.1% 7.5% 6.7% 5.8%
5.0% 3.2% 7.0% 6.5% 5.5% 5.5%
Tax Rate (% of pretax income) 37.5% 37.5% 37.5% 26.6% 34.6%
34.5% 34.5% 33.5% 34.0% 34.0% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5%
32.5%
Net Income 3.4% 2.6% 4.5% 4.4% 3.8% 3.2% 2.7% 5.0% 4.4% 3.8%
3.4% 2.2% 4.7% 4.4% 3.7% 3.7%
YOY % Growth
North American Retail Sales 5.7% 1.9% 0.6% (0.4%) 1.8% 0.7% 1.7%
0.5% 2.7% 1.4% (0.2%) (2.7%) (0.7%) 6.4% 0.9% (2.1%)
North American Delivery Sales 1.8% 1.6% 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 2.0% 3.1%
1.8% 1.5% 2.1% 1.7% (0.8%) (0.3%) 7.4% 2.0% 1.3%
International Operations Sales 6.0% (5.9%) (4.1%) (3.2%) (2.0%)
3.9% 15.2% (1.9%) (4.6%) 2.7% (8.0%) (18.2%) (10.1%) (3.1%) (9.9%)
(1.9%)
Total Sales 4.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 1.9% 5.2% 0.5% 0.7% 1.9%
(1.1%) (5.5%) (2.4%) 4.9% (0.9%) (0.7%)
Gross Margin 6.1% 2.7% 2.1% (2.1%) 2.0% 1.1% 5.3% 1.6% 0.7% 2.1%
(1.6%) (7.3%) (3.8%) 3.5% (2.2%) (1.8%)
SG&A 1.9% (0.3%) 0.7% 1.7% 1.0% 4.1% 7.6% 1.5% (1.7%) 2.8%
(1.8%) (4.3%) (1.7%) 4.4% (0.9%) (1.8%)
NA Retail Op. Inc. 10.0% 2.8% 5.2% (15.2%) (0.6%) 0.5% (2.7%)
1.6% 15.2% 4.5% (3.6%) (14.1%) (3.5%) 11.0% (0.5%) (6.1%)
NA Direct Op. Inc. 26.7% 11.6% 2.6% (6.9%) 7.0% (3.3%) (0.8%)
9.1% 11.8% 4.3% 6.2% (9.3%) (5.6%) 3.9% (1.3%) 2.0%
Intl Operations Op. Inc. 83.4% 262.1% 46.7% (1.2%) 36.5% (74.2%)
22.4% (32.6%) (43.7%) (41.2%) (129.1%) (233.2%) (70.5%) (100.6%)
(113.7%) (60.5%)
Total Operating Income 25.3% 22.7% 8.4% (10.1%) 8.1% (9.1%)
(4.0%) 1.9% 7.8% (0.2%) (0.7%) (20.9%) (8.7%) 1.6% (6.1%)
(1.6%)
Interest and Other Ex pense, net (13.0%) (4.1%) 8.6% (5.6%)
(4.2%) (14.4%) (27.1%) (18.5%) (27.6%) (22.0%) (11.9%) 2.4% (12.0%)
(3.8%) (6.6%) (4.6%)
Pretax Income 35.1% 31.4% 8.4% (10.7%) 10.3% (8.2%) 1.5% 4.1%
12.8% 3.2% 1.1% (24.9%) (8.4%) 2.1% (6.0%) (1.2%)
Net Income 28.9% 25.4% 3.4% 0.0% 10.2% (3.8%) 6.4% 10.9% 1.5%
4.1% 4.2% (22.6%) (7.1%) 4.4% (3.9%) (1.2%)
EPS 27.3% 26.3% 5.3% 2.7% 11.2% 0.2% 11.9% 14.7% 5.8% 8.2% 8.1%
(19.3%) (3.4%) 7.8% (0.2%) 2.2%
Sales/Store Data
NA Retail Same-Store Sales 1.0% 0.0% (1.0%) (2.0%) (0.6%) (1.0%)
0.0% (1.0%) 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% (2.0%) (0.5%) (1.0%) (0.8%) 0.5%
U.S. Stores 1,572 1,572 1,581 1,575 1,575 1,574 1,575 1,575
1,583 1,583 1,580 1,579 1,578 1,577 1,577 1,569
Canadian Stores 316 316 316 325 325 327 331 333 334 334 334 336
336 336 336 334
N. American Stores 1,888 1,888 1,897 1,900 1,900 1,901 1,906
1,908 1,917 1,917 1,914 1,915 1,914 1,913 1,913 1,903
International Stores 369 376 381 381 381 378 378 377 378 378 376
375 375 374 374 359
Total Stores 2,257 2,264 2,278 2,281 2,281 2,279 2,284 2,285
2,295 2,295 2,290 2,290 2,289 2,287 2,287 2,262
Sales Mix
N. American Retail 38.2% 36.3% 40.4% 39.9% 38.8% 37.7% 35.1%
40.4% 40.7% 38.6% 38.1% 36.2% 41.2% 41.3% 39.3% 38.8%
N. American Direct/Delivery 40.7% 42.6% 38.8% 38.8% 40.1% 40.7%
41.8% 39.3% 39.1% 40.2% 41.9% 43.9% 40.2% 40.1% 41.4% 42.2%
International 21.2% 21.0% 20.7% 21.2% 21.0% 21.6% 23.0% 20.3%
20.1% 21.2% 20.1% 19.9% 18.7% 18.6% 19.3% 19.0%
Cash Flow Analysis
EBIT (1 - Tax Rate) 239.5 181.1 327.2 319.0 1,067.3 228.2 182.2
354.8 309.4 1,074.8 233.6 148.5 328.6 321.4 1,032.1 1,015.9
+ Depreciation & Amortization 125.4 122.6 123.3 127.6 498.9
121.8 123.2 115.6 121.4 482.1 116.5 115.1 115.6 121.4 468.6
459.3
- Capital Ex penditures 49.0 101.7 95.1 163.1 408.9 62.6 101.5
79.6 139.9 383.7 52.1 74.1 79.6 139.9 345.7 345.7
- Change in Non-Cash WC 91.0 230.5 (205.1) 61.8 265.9 278.9
269.2 (288.2) (107.2) 50.6 73.4 130.3 (327.5) (83.9) (207.7)
(28.2)
Free Cash Flow 224.9 (28.5) 560.4 221.8 891.4 8.5 (65.4) 679.1
398.1 1,122.6 224.6 59.2 692.1 386.8 1,362.7 1,157.6
EBITDA Calculation
Operating Profit (EBIT) 383.2 289.8 523.4 434.8 1,631.3 348.3
278.1 533.2 468.8 1,628.4 346.1 220.1 486.9 476.1 1,529.1
1,505.1
+ Depreciation & Amortization 125.4 122.6 123.3 127.6 498.9
121.8 123.2 115.6 121.4 482.1 116.5 115.1 115.6 121.4 468.6
459.3
= EBITDA 508.6 412.4 646.8 562.4 2,130.1 470.2 401.3 648.8 590.2
2,110.5 462.6 335.1 602.5 597.5 1,997.7 1,964.3
EBITDA Margin 8.4% 7.5% 9.9% 8.8% 8.7% 7.6% 6.9% 9.9% 9.1% 8.4%
7.6% 6.1% 9.4% 8.8% 8.1% 8.0%
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates
This material was originally prepared by a J.P. Morgan entity
(as identified in the material) in connection with its business and
is beingprovided to you as a courtesy in a modified format only for
informational and educational purposes (not investment purposes),
and on a delayed basis.
-
6North America Equity Research
25 September 2012
Christopher Horvers, CFA
? ? ? ? ?
Staples: Summary of FinancialsIncome Statement - Annual FY12A
FY13E FY14E Income Statement - Quarterly 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13E
4Q13E
Revenues 24,790 24,628 - Revenues - - - -
COGS 18,195 18,151 - COGS - - - -
Gross Profit 6,594 6,477 - Gross Profit - - - -
SG&A 5,005 4,914 - SG&A - - - -
Operating Income 5,005 4,914 - Operating Income - - - -
EBITDA 1,998 1,964 - EBITDA - - - -
Interest, Net 158 151 - Interest, Net - - - -
Pretax Income 1,371 1,354 - Pretax Income - - - -
Taxes 446 440 - Taxes - - - -
Tax Rate 32.5% 32.5% - Tax Rate - - - -
Net income - operating 925 914 - Net income - operating - - -
-
Diluted Shares Outstanding 677 655 - Diluted Shares Outstanding
- - - -
Operating EPS 1.37 1.40 - Operating EPS - - - -
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Data FY12A FY13E FY14E Ratio
Analysis and Valuation FY12A FY13E FY14E
Cash and Equivalents 1,311 - - Sales growth (0.9%) - -
Inventories 2,343 - - Same store sales (0.8%) - -
Current Assets 6,150 - - EBITDA Growth (5.3%) - -
EBIT Growth (6.1%) - -
PP&E 2,057 - -
EPS growth - operating (0.2%) - -
Total Assets 4,959 - -
Gross Margin 26.6% - -
Short-term Debt 175 - - EBIT Margin - - -
Current Liabilities 3,831 - - EBITDA Margin 8.1% - -
Long-term Debt 1,424 - - Inventory growth (3.7%) - -
Total Liabilities 5,997 - - AP/inventory 92.6% - -
Shareholders' Equity 7,170 - - Debt/EBITDA 0.8 - -
Debt/Capital (book) 18.2% - -
Net Income (including charges) 907 - -
D&A 469 - - Return on invested capital (ROIC) - - -
Other adjustments
Changes in Working Capital 208 - - Enterprise value / revenues
0.4 - -
Cash flow from Operations 1,583 - - Enterprise value / EBITDA
4.5 - -
Free Cash Flow Yield 15.8% - -
Capex (346) - - P/E 9.0 8.8 -
Free Cash Flow 1,237 - -
Free Cash Flow/Share 1.79 - -
Dividends - - -
Dividend Yield - - -
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: $ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends
Jan
This material was originally prepared by a J.P. Morgan entity
(as identified in the material) in connection with its business and
is beingprovided to you as a courtesy in a modified format only for
informational and educational purposes (not investment purposes),
and on a delayed basis.
-
7North America Equity Research
25 September 2012
Christopher Horvers, CFA
? ? ? ? ?
Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC
on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple
research
analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research
analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document
individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer
that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of
the views
expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal
views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and
(2) no part of
any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or
views
expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures
Market Maker: JPMS makes a market in the stock of Staples.
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12
months, the following company(ies) as clients: Staples.
Client/Investment Banking: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had
within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as investment
banking clients: Staples.
Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan
currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following
company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were
non-investment-banking, securities-related: Staples.
Client/Non-Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had
within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients,
and the services provided were non-securities-related: Staples.
Investment Banking (past 12 months): J.P. Morgan received in the
past 12 months compensation for investment banking Staples.
Investment Banking (next 3 months): J.P. Morgan expects to
receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking
services in the next three months from Staples.
Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received
compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other
than investment banking from Staples.
Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including
price charts, are available for compendium reports and all J.P.
Morgan
?
Date Rating Share Price
($)
Price Target
($)
26-Sep-07 UW 21.47 --
28-Aug-08 N 24.74 --
03-Dec-08 N 17.55 20.00
11-Mar-09 N 15.47 18.00
29-May-09 N 20.46 22.00
25-Aug-09 N 21.79 25.00
02-Dec-09 N 23.95 27.00
15-Jan-10 OW 25.11 30.00
03-Mar-10 OW 23.25 28.00
20-May-10 OW 21.38 27.00
10-Aug-10 OW 19.40 25.00
19-Aug-10 OW 18.93 24.00
26-Oct-10 OW 20.40 25.00
25-May-11 OW 16.58 22.00
12-Aug-11 OW 13.10 20.00
18-Aug-11 OW 13.57 19.00
28-Nov-11 OW 14.08 18.00
25-May-12 OW 13.49 17.00
12-Sep-12 OW 11.37 14.00
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the
stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over
the entire
period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N=
Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and
Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over
the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform
the
average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the
analysts teams) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to
twelve
0
10
20
30
40
50
Price($)
Oct
06
Jul
07
Apr
08
Jan
09
Oct
09
Jul
10
Apr
11
Jan
12
Oct
12
Staples (SPLS, SPLS US) Price Chart
N $18 N $27 OW $27OW $25 OW $19
N $20 N $25 OW $28OW $24 OW $20 OW $14
UW N N $22 OW $30 OW $25 OW $22 OW $18 OW $17
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock
splits and dividends.
Break in coverage Sep 26, 2007 - Aug 28, 2008.
www.jpmorganintelligence.com or by calling this U.S. toll-free
number (1-800-477-0406). covered companies by visiting
-
8North America Equity Research
25 September 2012
Christopher Horvers, CFA
? ? ? ? ?
months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the
average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts
teams)
coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve
months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total
return of
the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage
universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and,
if
applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a
lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or
policy
reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price
target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not
a
recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia) and U.K.
small- and mid-cap equity research, each stocks expected total
return is
compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country
market index, not to those analysts coverage universe. If it does
not appear
in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the
certifying analysts coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgans
research
Coverage Universe: Horvers, Christopher: Advance Auto Parts,
Inc. (AAP), AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY),
Best Buy (BBY), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), Dick's
Sporting Goods (DKS), GNC Holdings (GNC), Genuine Parts Company
(GPC), Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY),
Office Depot (ODP), OfficeMax Inc. (OMX), PetSmart, Inc.
(PETM), RadioShack (RSH), Staples (SPLS), Target Corporation
(TGT), The Home Depot (HD), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Vitamin
Shoppe, Inc (VSI), Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT), Williams-Sonoma,
Inc. (WSM), hhgregg (HGG)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of July 6,
2012
Overweight
(buy)
Neutral
(hold)
Underweight
(sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 45% 43% 11%
IB clients* 51% 47% 34%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage 44% 48% 8%
IB clients* 70% 62% 51%
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating
category.
For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our
Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral
rating falls into a hold
rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell
rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are
not included in the table
above.
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9North America Equity Research
25 September 2012
Christopher Horvers, CFA
? ? ? ? ?
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This material was originally prepared by a J.P. Morgan entity
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10
North America Equity Research
25 September 2012
Christopher Horvers, CFA
? ? ? ? ?