Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics Economics National transfer accounts for Austria Implications for the projections of life cycle deficits, demographic dividends and support ratio Joze Sambt University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics Alexia Prskawetz Vienna University of Technology and Vienna Institute of Demography
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Joze Sambt University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics Alexia Prskawetz
National transfer accounts for Austria Implications for the projections of life cycle deficits, demographic dividends and support ratio. Joze Sambt University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics Alexia Prskawetz Vienna University of Technology and Vienna Institute of Demography. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
National transfer accounts for Austria Implications for the projections of
life cycle deficits, demographic dividends and support ratio
Joze Sambt
University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics
Alexia PrskawetzVienna University of Technology and Vienna Institute of Demography
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
Structure of the talk
1. National transfer accounts – methodology
2. National transfer accounts for Austria
3. Projections of life cycle deficit, first demographic dividend and support ratio for Austria
4. Life cycle deficit, first demographic dividend and support ratio for European NTA countries
AssetreallocationNet privatetransfersNet publictransfersNet publictransfers in cash
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
Projections of
(a) life cycle deficit(b) first demographic dividend and (c) support ratio
for Austria
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
Population Structure Austria, 2008
Source: Eurostat
Population Structure Austria, 2023 (the year of the lowest value of the first demographic dividend)
Source: Eurostat
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
(a) PROJECTING LIFECYCLE DEFICIT Austria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections
(EUROPOP2008)
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
4520
00
200
5
201
0
201
5
202
0
202
5
203
0
203
5
204
0
204
5
205
0
EU
R [
in b
illio
ns]
Year
PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN LCDAustria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections (EUROPOP2008)
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
LC
D in
crea
se [
in %
]
Year
Composition of the Lifecycle deficit (LCD) by age groupsAustria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
(b) FIRST DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
GDP per capita support output per(output per effective = ratio x effective worker consumer)
)t(L)t(Y
)t(N)t(L
)t(N)t(Y
lyNLy
Projecting the first demographic dividendAustria, 2000-2050; EUROSTAT Population Projections EUROPOP2008
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
(c) SUPPORT RATIO
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics
The demographic change implies a change in relative size of self supporting and dependent population.
the support ratio:
= LF / CON LF …. effective labor forceCON …. effective number of consumers
influenced by -> consumption needs of people of different ages -> changes in retirement age -> labor force participation rates -> earning power of those who are working
Source: Cutler et al. (1999) An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
Alternative 1: CON1 = i=1…99 Ni (common dependency ratio)
Alternative 2: differentiate resource needs by age
CON2 = i=1…99 Si Ni (needs weighted consumption measure)
Alternative 1: LF1 = i=20…64 Ni (common dependency ratio)
Alternative 2: LF2 = i=15…80 w i PR i N i (adjust for wages and lfpr by age)
Institute for Mathematical Methods in EconomicsEconomics