Joshua Schank President and CEO Eno Center for Transportation Congress: Gridlocking Towards Glory or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love General Fund Revenues
Feb 23, 2016
Joshua SchankPresident and CEO
Eno Center for Transportation
Congress: Gridlocking Towards Gloryor
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love General Fund Revenues
Presentation Outline
• Policy Outlook• Current Funding Outlook• Potential Future Options• What can be done about it?
Policy Outlook
Columbia and the ADA
Pre-MAP 21 System
No Performance Measures or Accountability
Inadequate Resources
Modal Silos
Donor/Donee
Spending Under SAFETEA-LU
Equity Bonus17%
Projects7%
Surface Trans-
portation Program
13%Interstate Mainte-nance10%
Bridges9%
National Highway System
12%
Transit19%
Other13%
End of an Era?
Congress Taking What They Can
Formula Funds80%
Dis-cre-
tionary Funds13%
Earmarks7%
SAFETEA-LU
Formula Funds88%
Discretionary Funds12%
MAP-21
Current Funding Outlook
Jonah and the Clock
No Progress on Long-Term Funding
Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Beginning-of-year Balance $14 $8 $4 $4 -$6 -$15 -$24 -$33 -$42 -$52 -$62Revenues and Interest $33 $33 $33 $34 $35 $36 $36 $36 $36 $37 $37Intragovernmental Transfers $2 $6 $10 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0Outlays $42 $43 $44 $44 $44 $45 $45 $46 $46 $47 $47End-of-year Balance $8 $4 $4 -$6 -$15 -$24 -$33 -$42 -$52 -$62 -$72
Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Beginning-of-year Balance $7 $5 $5 $1 -$3 -$7 -$12 -$16 -$20 -$24 -$29Revenues and Interest $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5Intragovernmental Transfers $0 $0 $2 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0Outlays $7 $8 $8 $9 $10 $10 $10 $9 $9 $10 $10End-of-year Balance $5 $5 $1 -$3 -$7 -$12 -$16 -$20 -$24 -$29 -$33
TOTAL HTF BALANCE $13 $9 $5 -$9 -$22 -$36 -$49 -$62 -$76 -$91 -$105
Mass Transit Account
Highway Account
Based on CBO Score of MAP-21 (June 2012)
HIGHWAY TRUST FUND PROJECTIONS
Source: AASHTO
Potential Future Options
Max’s SolutionMax’s Solution
Under Consideration
General Funds
• Default policy• Most likely
outcome• Used by
virtually every other developed nation
Gas Tax or Similar
• Still strongly under consideration
• Could move to sales tax or wholesale tax
VMT Fee
• Unlikely to come from feds
• Could have potential at state or regional level
Funding Tradeoffs
Highway Trust Fund
General Funds
No modal battles
Fewer geographic
battles
Not tied to gas tax
Dedicated
Contract authority
What can be done about it?
Congress: Ready to Go
Conclusions
• Current system fails to provide long-term sustainable funding
• There is no evidence that Congress can tackle this problem by increasing user fees
• Congress’ default position has already improved things
• A conscious move to general funds could effectively improve performance, reduce modal siloes, and provide sustainable funding
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