Joseph F. Bouchard, Ph.D. November 13, 2014 Sea Level Rise in Hampton Roads.

Joseph F. Bouchard, Ph.D.November 13, 2014

Sea Level Rise in Hampton Roads

Sea Level is Rising Faster in Hampton Roads than Globally

Tide gauge data (global)

Satellite data

Local tide gauge (N

orfolk)

Source: Tal Ezer, Old Dominion University, “Sea Level Rise and Floods in the Chesapeake Bay and the Mid-Atlantic Region,” March 14, 2013

Over the last 20 years the rate of increase in Hampton Roads has

been about 6.6 mm/yr

Why?Global seal level rise

SubsidenceOcean Dynamics

The Forecast for Hampton Roads

Source: Dr. Carl Hershner, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, 2012

This graph takes the IPCC global forecast

and adjusts it to reflect relative sea level rise in

Coastal Virginia

Coastal Virginia is tracking along the

yellow curve

Coastal Virginia

National Geographic

Every coastal community on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts is threatened by sea level rise. Those that adapt effectively will have a significant competitive advantage over those that do not.

New OrleansMobile

Tampa

Miami

Outer Banks

Atlantic City

Charleston

Savannah

Jacksonville

Note: This map shows the worst case scenario of 18 feet of sea level rise. It clearly shows the vulnerable coastal areas being referred to as the “Flood Belt.” Current projections are for 3-6 feet of sea level rise by 2100, depending on local conditions.

The Flood Belt

Fort EustisLangley AFB

Naval Station Norfolk

JEB Little Creek

Dam Neck

Coast Guard Base

Naval Hospital

Naval Shipyard

Military Bases are Threatened

Newport News Shipbuilding

Norfolk International Terminal

Portsmouth Marine Terminal

APM Terminal Lambert Point Coal Terminal

Several Shipyards and Terminals

Shipyards and Terminals are Threatened

Tourism Industry is Threatened in Coastal VirginiaChincoteague

too

Jamestown

Fort Monroe

Eastern ShoreBarrier Islands(Most of them

a nature preserve)

Atlantic Coast of Virginia Beach

Chesapeake Bay Coast of Virginia Beachand First Landing park

Downtown Portsmouth and Norfolk

On-Going Efforts in Virginia

• City of Norfolk Planning Efforts

• Hampton Roads Planning District Commission Special Committee on Recurrent Flooding and Sea Level Rise

• Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise Preparedness and Resilience Intergovernmental Planning Pilot Project

• Governor’s Climate Change and Resiliency Update Commission

• General Assembly: Joint Subcommittee on Recurrent Flooding

• Local universities playing an important role

• Virginia Institute of Marine Science

• ODU Mitigation and Resilience Institute

• William & Mary Law School’s Virginia Coastal Policy Clinic

A few cautionary thoughts:• The problem is not just recurrent flooding

• Also must address permanent inundation and tidal flooding• The terms “preparedness” and “resilience” are being interpreted too narrowly

• Commonly used for emergency planning – plan, prepare, mitigate, respond, recover• Also must address adaptation broadly, not just emergency preparedness

• Impact on natural environment is being given little attention• Focus is on infrastructure and economic impact

Recommendations for the Commonwealth

• Direct All Commonwealth agencies to adopt adaptation plans

• Create Assistant to the Governor for Climate Change Adaptation and Preparedness

• Establish permanent advisory panel on climate change adaptation analogous to the Secure Commonwealth Panel – membership including state agencies and private sector

• Foster federal, state and local cooperation on adaptation planning (industry, too)

• Require sea level rise be addressed in transportation planning and funding decisions

• Require Planning District Commissions in Coastal Virginia to coordinate regional adaptation planning

• Require sea level rise be addressed in all local infrastructure plans in Coastal Virginia for which the Commonwealth provides funding

• Grant the State Corporation Commission authority to mandate preparedness and resilience standards for privately owned critical infrastructure

• Understand the impact of changes in the National Flood Insurance Program and ensure local governments have the authority and tools they need to adapt

• Encourage all local jurisdictions in Coastal Virginia to achieve Community Rating System level 8 or better – and provide the support they need to accomplish this

• Complete LIDAR mapping and incorporate into GIS standardized across all of Coastal Virginia

• Foster Inter-Governmental – federal, state and local – cooperation and coordination on climate change preparedness and resilience

• President’s 11/1/2013 Executive Order is a step in the right direction

• Require Federal agencies to include climate change preparedness and resilience in all of their programs affected by climate change, especially their infrastructure investments

• Require Federal agencies that regulate privately-owned critical infrastructure to include climate change preparedness and resilience in their requirements

• Require sea level rise forecast be factored into decisions on funding and grants for state and local governments related to infrastructure construction, renovation and upgrades

• All programs – transportation, homeland security, education, HHS, HUD

• Account for sea level rise and increased storm surge over the planned life of the project

• Require climate change adaptation planning be done on a regional basis

• As is required for transportation – TPO

• Commerce Department should require climate change adaptation be addressed in every region’s Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS).

• Improve access to scientific and technical information and best practices

• Several Federal agencies involved – but local governments unsure who to turn to

Recommendations for the Federal Government

Resources

City of Norfolk – Flooding Awareness and Mitigation http://www.norfolk.gov/index.aspx?NID=1055

Hampton Roads Planning District Commission http://www.hrpdc.org/departments/planning/coastal-resources-management/

FEMA Flood Map Service Center https://msc.fema.gov/portal

NOAA Office for Coastal Management http://coast.noaa.gov/?redirect=301ocm

Army Corps of EngineersCoastal Storm Damage Reduction http://www.norfolk.gov/DocumentCenter/View/17786North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study http://www.nad.usace.army.mil/CompStudy.aspx

Virginia Institute of Marine ScienceCenter for Coastal Resources Management http://ccrm.vims.edu/Recurrent Flooding Study for Tidewater Virginiahttp://ccrm.vims.edu/recurrent_flooding/Recurrent_Flooding_Study_web.pdf

William & Mary Law School – Virginia Coastal Policy Clinic http://law.wm.edu/academics/programs/jd/electives/clinics/vacoastal/index.php

Virginia Coastal Zone Management Program http://www.deq.state.va.us/programs/coastalzonemanagement.aspx

Secure Commonwealth Panel, Recurrent Flooding Report 2014 http://www.norfolk.gov/DocumentCenter/View/17786

Governor’s Commission on Climate Change 2008 http://www.sealevelrisevirginia.net/main_CCC_files/

Wetlands Watch http://www.wetlandswatch.org/WetlandScience/SeaLevelRise.aspx

Questions?

O’Malley ready for sea level rise