Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process Jongmin Han † , Hyun Yim † , Soekho Son † , Jae-Shin Lee ‡ † Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning, Seoul, Korea ‡ Chung-Ang University, Dept. of Mass Communications, Seoul, Korea The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011
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Jongmin Han † , Hyun Yim † , Soekho Son † , Jae-Shin Lee ‡
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011. Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process. Jongmin Han † , Hyun Yim † , Soekho Son † , Jae-Shin Lee ‡. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
† Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning, Seoul, Korea‡ Chung-Ang University, Dept. of Mass Communications, Seoul, Korea
The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Introduction
Conversation and debate in scenario workshop
•In order to create successful scenario, the rational and efficient consensus building process should be operated in scenario workshops.
•Participants in scenario workshops can understand the future differently by their own experience, knowledge and situations because scenarios treat the future cannot be predicted.
•Therefore, in order to write successful scenarios, the conflicting claims of participants should be adjusted to the reasonable and feasible logic by conversation and debate.
We need a consensus building process to make the high quality scenarios in scenario workshops.
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Obstacles to successful conversation and debate
Non-free/equal Communication
•Conversation and debate are influenced by master-student relationship, senior-junior relationship, the Confucian culture.
•In South Korean culture, it remains to be unheard of to question or criticize a superior. Experts with lower ranking or position often only “suggested” weak signals and they rarely spoken a second time even when the weak signals became clear.
To maintain a good relationship, some experts often agree with different opinions or don’t criticize other’s opinions.
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Obstacles to successful conversation and debate
Very busy professionals
•In national level foresight, government generally requires that participants in scenario workshops will be comprised of experts that well-reputed in their areas.
•The higher the reputation of experts, the less experts’ time to work for scenario workshops. In addition, it is difficult for them to attend all meetings.
Next meeting
Due to 10 p.m.
It is difficult to design the pre-training for studying drivers of change, trends/issues related to foresight’s topic.
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Obstacles to successful conversation and debate
Not-enough feedback
•Discussion about scenarios is generally finished within scenario workshops. However, in order to write good scenarios, we continuously revise scenarios by the feedback of experts and several stakeholders.
•For successful scenarios, scenarios must include the creative thought of the future. Commonly, the creative idea about the future is finding through not flash of insight but careful consideration for a long time.
Scenario Workshop is not enough to discuss or revise scenarios.
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
How to resolve or improve
Non-free/equal Communication•We need the environment that can communicate freely without the relationship of experts.
Very busy professionals•We need the method that experts can participate in scenario building without the limitation of time and place.
Not-enough feedback•We need the time and place that experts discuss or revise scenarios continuously.
Wiki is good solution for above issues !!!
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Why is a wiki system??
Anyone•A wiki system can guarantee experts anonymity with temporal user ID. So, They can write articles freely. And then, if experts have the right to revise contents in special pages, they can modify articles of other experts.
Anytime, Anywhere•If experts can access the Internet, they can write articles in anytime, anywhere.
Low cost •Almost wiki software is free. So, if you have a web server in your organization or institute, it never cost for you to make a wiki system. We made the wiki system with dokuwiki(freeware).
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
The usage of a wiki system before this research
KISTEP 10 emerging technologies(2009)
•Experts make a initial list of technologies by a wiki system.
Selection of Experts
Initial List of Technologies
Screen Technologiesaccording to criteria
Selection of Final 10 Techs
Wiki
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
The usage of a wiki system before this research
Strategic foresight of the energy efficiency(2010)•Each expert suggested drivers of change according to STEEP analysis and then discussed online to finalize the drivers using the wiki system.
Identifying Drivers of change
Finding Key Uncertainties
Writing scenarios
Wiki
Strategic foresight of the energy efficiency
Identifying Drivers of change
Finding Key Uncertainties
Writing scenarios
Wiki
Strategic foresight of the media
Strategic foresight of the media(2010)•The participants wrote scenarios in the wiki system. They edited the scenarios based on the continuous feedback provided from the wiki system.
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
New process
Scenario workshop + Wiki
•We designed the process to combine scenario workshop with wiki.
Step 1:Identifying Drivers of
change
Step 2:Finding Key
Uncertainties
Step 3:Writing Scenarios
Wiki Workshop + Wiki Workshop + Wiki
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Step 1: Identifying Drivers of change
Only usage of the wiki system
•We design the process that participants discuss the future in depth and identify the drivers of change through a wiki system. The wiki system was developed for debating and suggesting their ideas about the future drivers of change.
•The drivers of change are identified by following process.
Offering some drivers related to the topic1-Name, definition of drivers-Ripple effects of drivers
Debating and suggesting their ideas about the future drivers of change
2
-Name, definition of drivers-Ripple effects of drivers-Two possibilities of drivers-Relationship between drivers
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Step 2: Finding key uncertainties
Extended discussion by the wiki system
•We design the process that participants can discuss further the estimated result of drivers in depth through the wiki system after participants initially estimate the drivers in the workshop.
•Participants evaluate the drivers based on two perspectives, impact and uncertainty during a workshop. The drivers of change that were evaluated as the ones with high impact and high uncertainty received the main focus. The entire consensuses building process is conducted on the wiki system.
•Through the wiki system, participants can review the estimated result of drivers and discuss and revise two possibilities of key uncertainties in depth.
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Step 3: Writing scenarios
Continuous feedback
•participants write drafts of scenarios in the workshop. After that, they edit the scenarios based on the continuous feedback provided from the wiki system.
•we continuously revise scenarios by the feedback of experts and several stakeholders by this process
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Pilot project with university students
Voluntary participants
•The pilot project progressed with university students. Trainings for the scenario building process and usage of the wiki system were provided in the classroom. The participants were very cooperative and showed enthusiasm throughout the project partly because of the fact that the outcome could affect their grade.
•In order to work a wiki system successfully, it is important that experts are willing to participate. The higher the participation of experts, the richer the contents made by a wiki system.
•We developed scenarios about the future of media devices (Smartphone, Smart TV, Tablet PC). Most of students were not technology experts but have major in mass media. So, they had enough knowledge about mass communications technology.
Total 9 scenarios are developed (3 scenarios for each media device)
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Pilot project Schedule
Schedule
Process Detailed Process Schedule
Step1:Identifying drivers of
change
Offering some drivers related to the topic 2010.11.2 ~11.4
Debating and suggesting their ideas about the future drivers of change 2010.11.6~11.10
Step2:Finding key uncertainties
1st workshop 2010.11.11
Discussion about key uncertainties in Wiki 2010.11.12~11.16
Step3:Writing scenarios
2nd workshop 2010.11.18
Revising scenarios in Wiki 2010.11.19~12.2
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Identifying drivers of change (Tablet PC)
The Usage of STEEP analysis in a wiki system(www.foresightwiki.org)
Social
Demographic changeU-Learning demandThe convergence of IndustryKnowledge serviceOne person, one computerThe purchasing power of young age in developing economiesThe usage of public transportation Digital divideIncome polarization
Economical The profit change of Contents industryOpen collaboration environment
Environmental The emergence of health risk factors by developing technologies
PoliticalIntellectual property rightsThe policy to support the smart work Privacy Policies
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Finding key uncertainties (Tablet PC)
Key axes of uncertainty
Two possibilities
- +
The profit change of Contents
industrypoor High income
The usage of public
transportation decrease increase
The purchasing power of young
age in developing economies
stagnation Continuous growth
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Writing scenarios (Tablet PC)
ScenarioTitle
Key axes of uncertainty Scenario Description
Pax Tabula
The profit change of Contents industry : High incomeThe usage of public transportation : IncreaseThe purchasing power of young age in developing economies : Continuous growth
The increase of young age’s purchasing power in developing economies and the usage of public transportation raise the growth of tablet PC’s market. Companies in contents industry reinvest most of profit in their fields. Tablet PC becomes in its golden age.
Marginal Mobile Device
The profit change of Contents industry : PoorThe usage of public transportation : IncreaseThe purchasing power of young age in developing economies : Stagnation
Tablet PC fails to create a new market, which is due to the stagnation of young age’s purchasing power in developing economies.Tablet PC will merge into smart phone or PC.The role of tablet PC becomes a second device that is used in education, entertainment.
Tablet PCFadeaway
The profit change of Contents industry : PoorThe usage of public transportation : DecreaseThe purchasing power of young age in developing economies : Stagnation
Tablet PC fails to create a new market. The market and quality of contents have decreased steadily.
Combination of the scenario workshop and wiki to improve the effectiveness of consensus building process
Conclusion•We believe that the combined approach used in this research can be more productive than a method with scenario workshops alone when generating and developing new ideas. Our method can overcome the limitations of scenario workshops since it helps participants to discuss freely without any social pressure and time limit.
•This methodology provides advantages over the scenario workshop only method in that participants could receive equal opportunities and enjoy anonymities to express their opinions freely.
•However, it should be emphasized that the wiki system is just a tool helping participants generate and develop ideas. The role of the entire participants of the project is more important than the methodology itself to carry out a successful foresight project. We are going to research what incentive is effective for high participation of experts.