FAO/WFP/IFAD PRESENTATION TO UNCT April 22, 2008 CURRENT FOOD CRISIS AND SOARING PRICES IN PAKISTAN
May 26, 2015
FAO/WFP/IFAD PRESENTATIONTO UNCT
April 22, 2008
CURRENT FOOD CRISIS AND SOARING PRICES IN PAKISTAN
Structure of Presentation
Countries in Current Food Crisis
Consequences of food crisis
GLOBAL CONTEXT – Drivers of the Soaring
Prices
PAKISTAN CONTEXT - Food Crisis & Soaring
prices
Mitigation Programmes
UN Delivering as One – Proposed Action
Food Security Defined
Food security exists when all people, at
all times, have physical and economic
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious
food to meet their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and
healthy life.
COUNTRIES IN CURRENT FOOD CRISIS
Eritrea Madagascar Gambia Zimbabwe
Angola Myanmar Guinea Mozambique
Sao tome and principe
Malawi Nepal Cogo, DR
Chad Benin Sierra Leone Yemen
Mauritania Zambia Niger Senegal
Burundi Haiti OPT Ethiopia
Timor-Leste Afghanistan Tajikistan Guinea-Bissau
Somalia Central African Republic
Tanzania Cameroon
Rwanda Bangladesh Indonesia Comoros
Togo Uganda Pakistan
CONSEQUENCES OF PERSISTENT FOOD SHORTAGES & PRICES HIKE
Slow down/reversal of poverty alleviation efforts Hinder economic growth and inflation control Retard employment generation Derail efforts to promote reform Create social and political instability
RISK THAT MDG 1 TARGET FOR HUNGER WILL BE DRAMATICALLY MISSED
GLOBAL CONTEXT: DRIVERS OF SOARING PRICES
Insufficient growth in cereal production Declining cereal stocks (lowest in three decades)
Rise in petroleum prices (correlation to food > 0.6)
Increased demand from biofuels sector Economic boom in large developing countries
(5kg cereals produce 1kg meat) Inadequate agriculture and trade policies (e.g.
export bans can contribute to higher global prices)
LOW RATE OF GLOBALLOW RATE OF GLOBALCEREAL PRODUCTIONCEREAL PRODUCTION
Source: Data from FAO 2003, 2005-07 * Forecast.
Mill
ion
tons
To
tal M
illio
n to
ns
0
300
600
900
1,200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
Wheat Coarse grains Rice Total (right)
CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION GROWTH BY 2080
Source: Cline, 2007
CEREAL STOCK DECLINEEnding Stocks 1999 to 2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Wheat Coarse grains Rice (milled) Total
Source: FAO 2003
MIL
LIO
N T
ON
S
SOARING OIL PRICESSOARING OIL PRICES
Source: Data from FAO 2007 and IMF 2007
Co
mm
odi
ty p
rice
s (U
S$
/ton
)
New trend?
0
100
200
300
400
0
20
40
60
80
100Corn
Wheat
Rice
Oil (right scale)
Oil
pri
ces
(US
$/b
arre
l)
Source: Global Subsidies Initiative 2007
THE BIO-FUEL BOOMTHE BIO-FUEL BOOM
Ethanol Ethanol productionproduction
1975 - 20071975 - 2007
BiodieselBiodiesel production production 1991 - 20071991 - 2007
billi
on li
ters
billi
on li
ters
billi
on li
ters
billi
on li
ters
UNFAOURABLE AGRICULTURE UNFAOURABLE AGRICULTURE AND TRADE POLICIESAND TRADE POLICIES
Drastic decline in donor funding for agriculture Creation of unfavourable environment:
Huge subsidy to DC farmers High tariffs on value added products High cost of compliance with International standards Soaring input costs VS historically depressed output
prices Shrinking agriculture lands due to non-agricultural
uses.
PAKISTAN CONTEXT:
FOOD CRISIS/SOARING PRICES
FOOD CRSIS IN PAKISTAN CURRENT SITUATION
Pakistan is listed among the 40 countries that are facing food crisis
Already food insecure population: 60 million
Additional 17 million are feared to have joined the food insecure categories
Commodities Price Hike in Pakistan (June 06 – March 08)
88%
80%
58%
49%
35% 33% 32% 30%
18%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rice Edible Oil GramPulse
Maize Fish LiquidMilk
MashPulse
WheatFlour
Mutton Beef withBones
Perc
ent .
Source: MINFAL
Effects of Food Price HikeEffects of Food Price Hike
Reversal of gains made in poverty alleviationReversal of gains made in poverty alleviationReduced access to foodReduced access to foodPoor diet quality Poor diet quality Increased micronutrient malnutritionIncreased micronutrient malnutrition
Reasons for Food Prices Surge
International high prices (petreol and food) increase import costs and fuel price hikes
Price policy encourages siphoning and hoarding
Price differential with neighbour countries Unfavourable weather conditions Shortfall in domestic production
MITIGATION PROGRAMMES
Short Term: Targeted Relief/Subsidies and Safety Nets
Medium Term: Scale-up national food security programme
Long Term: Create enabling environment for sustainable
agriculture growth
“DELIVERING AS ONE-UN” PROPOSED ACTION
UN ADVISORY ROLEUN ADVISORY ROLE Conduct immediate situation assessment studyConduct immediate situation assessment study
UN ADVOCACY ROLEUN ADVOCACY ROLE Assist Gov’t in formulating Policies and Action Assist Gov’t in formulating Policies and Action
PlanPlan
UN CONVENER ROLEUN CONVENER ROLE Call for Donor partnership in short and medium Call for Donor partnership in short and medium
term mitigation effortsterm mitigation efforts
UN SERVICE PROVIDER ROLEUN SERVICE PROVIDER ROLE Agencies to provide partnership support to Gov’t Agencies to provide partnership support to Gov’t
in their areas of comparative advantage in short in their areas of comparative advantage in short and medium term mitigation measuresand medium term mitigation measures
THANK YOU
?