Joint Hurricane Test Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Update Bed (JHT) Update JHT Staff JHT Staff March 2004 March 2004 USWRP
Dec 31, 2015
Joint Hurricane Test Bed Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Update(JHT) Update
JHT StaffJHT Staff
March 2004March 2004
USWRP
TPC/NHCTPC/NHCTropical Cyclone Forecasting PrioritiesTropical Cyclone Forecasting Priorities
1.1. Improve guidance for TC intensity change, Improve guidance for TC intensity change, especially rapid intensificationespecially rapid intensification
2.2. Real-time “guidance on guidance” for track, Real-time “guidance on guidance” for track, intensity, and precipitationintensity, and precipitation
3.3. Improve guidance for tropical cyclone Improve guidance for tropical cyclone precipitation amount and distributionprecipitation amount and distribution
TPC/NHCTPC/NHCTropical Cyclone Forecasting PrioritiesTropical Cyclone Forecasting Priorities
4.4. Identify and reduce occurrence of guidance Identify and reduce occurrence of guidance and official track outliersand official track outliers
5.5. Implement improved observational systems in Implement improved observational systems in the storm and its environment that provide the storm and its environment that provide data for forecaster analysis and model data for forecaster analysis and model initializationinitialization
6.6. Develop guidance for changes in TC size and Develop guidance for changes in TC size and related parameters, including combined sea related parameters, including combined sea heightsheights
JHT Round 1JHT Round 1
10 projects originally funded in FY0110 projects originally funded in FY01 9 of 10 renewed for funding in FY02, 9 of 10 renewed for funding in FY02,
concluded summer 2003concluded summer 2003 6 projects accepted in December 2003 for 6 projects accepted in December 2003 for
operational implementation in 2004operational implementation in 2004 Decisions on two projects deferred until Decisions on two projects deferred until
completion of new, closely related JHT completion of new, closely related JHT projectsprojects
One project was not accepted for operational One project was not accepted for operational implementation at this timeimplementation at this time
New SHIPS model predictors
AMSU intensity and size estimates
GFDL Hurricane Model upgrades
TC rainfall climatology and persistence
(R-CLIPER) model
Probability ofrapid intensification
JHT Successful Transfers from JHT Successful Transfers from Research to OperationsResearch to Operations
Factors Considered in TPC DecisionsFactors Considered in TPC Decisionsfor Operational Implementationfor Operational Implementation
Factors Considered in TPC DecisionsFactors Considered in TPC Decisionsfor Operational Implementationfor Operational Implementation
Forecast or Analysis Benefit:Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracyin operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy
Efficiency:Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsand ease of use needs
Compatibility:Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.hardware, software, data, communications, etc.
Sustainability:Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportupgrade, and/or provide support
Forecast or Analysis Benefit:Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracyin operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy
Efficiency:Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsand ease of use needs
Compatibility:Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.hardware, software, data, communications, etc.
Sustainability:Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportupgrade, and/or provide support
JHT Round 2JHT Round 2
15 projects funded in FY03 (August 2003)15 projects funded in FY03 (August 2003) Will be reviewed for renewal (FY04 funding) in Will be reviewed for renewal (FY04 funding) in
May-June 2004May-June 2004 First full season of real-time testing and First full season of real-time testing and
evaluation, May-Nov 2004evaluation, May-Nov 2004 Second year of testing and evaluation will Second year of testing and evaluation will
conclude August 2005conclude August 2005 Decisions in late 2005 for operational Decisions in late 2005 for operational
implementation in 2006implementation in 2006
NOAA65%
Navy (NPS, NRL) and USAF
12%
State and Private
Universities23%
Funding Distribution ComparisonFunding Distribution ComparisonIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAAIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAA
Funding Distribution ComparisonFunding Distribution ComparisonIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAAIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAA
NOAA49%
Private Companies
2%
State and Private
Universities34%
Navy (NPS, NRL)15%
FY2003FY2003$1.35M$1.35MFY2003FY2003$1.35M$1.35M
FY2002FY2002$1.2M$1.2M
FY2002FY2002$1.2M$1.2M
FY03 Funded Project Focus AreasFY03 Funded Project Focus Areas
Primary Area of FocusPrimary Area of Focus # of Projects# of Projects
Improvements to dynamical modelsImprovements to dynamical models 44
Track forecast guidance algorithmsTrack forecast guidance algorithms 33
Intensity forecasting algorithmsIntensity forecasting algorithms 33
Enhancements to observed data, assimilationEnhancements to observed data, assimilation 22
Initial intensity estimationInitial intensity estimation 11
Tropical cyclogenesisTropical cyclogenesis 11
RainfallRainfall 11
TotalTotal 1515
Quantifying tropical cyclone track Quantifying tropical cyclone track forecast uncertainty and improving forecast uncertainty and improving extended range forecasts using an extended range forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical modelsensemble of dynamical models
PI: James Goerss (Naval Research Lab)PI: James Goerss (Naval Research Lab)– Spending six months (Nov 03-Apr 04) at TPCSpending six months (Nov 03-Apr 04) at TPC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
24 48 72 96 120
GFDIAVNIUKMINGPIGUNA
2001-2003 Atlantic GUNA EnsembleTC Forecast Error (nm)
619 358 176 Number of Forecasts467 229
0102030405060708090
100
24 48 72 96 120
GUNACONU
2001-2003 Atlantic Forecast Availability Percentage
Implementation of the Advanced Implementation of the Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)(AODT)
PIs: James Kossin and Chris Velden PIs: James Kossin and Chris Velden (CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin)(CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin)
Objective and Automated Assessment of Operational Global Forecast Model
Predictions of Tropical Cyclone FormationPatrick A. Harr
Naval Postgraduate SchoolMonterey, CA
Acknowledgment: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project
JHT Round 3JHT Round 3
Preparation of Federal Funding Opportunity Preparation of Federal Funding Opportunity (FFO) document currently underway(FFO) document currently underway
Q&A panel session planned for AMS Q&A panel session planned for AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, May 2004 in Miami BeachMeteorology, May 2004 in Miami Beach
FFO targeted for release on 1 June 2004FFO targeted for release on 1 June 2004 Will be open to government, academic, and Will be open to government, academic, and
private sector applicants worldwideprivate sector applicants worldwide Estimated available funding $1.5 millionEstimated available funding $1.5 million New projects begin ~March 2005New projects begin ~March 2005 Two-year projects conclude ~March 2007Two-year projects conclude ~March 2007 Possible operational implementations for 2007 Possible operational implementations for 2007
hurricane seasonhurricane season