John R. Seffrin, PhD National Chief Executive Officer American Cancer Society A Ticking Time Bomb: The Global Tobacco Pandemic Current and Future Scenarios.

John R. Seffrin, PhDNational Chief Executive Officer

American Cancer Society

A Ticking Time Bomb: The Global Tobacco Pandemic

Current and Future Scenarios

Global Tobacco-Free Research InitiativeStanford, California

May 15, 2008

Global Smoking Prevalence

• There are currently 1.3 billion smokers in the world.

• Asia; Central and Eastern Europe; and the former Soviet Union have the highest smoking rates in the world with overall country rates as high as 47%.

• One-third of the global population age 15 and older smokes.

Nearly 2/3 of the World’s Smokers Live in Just 10 Countries

More than 40% live in just two countries.

Smoking and Secondhand Smoke Damage Every Part of the Body

Smoking

Secondhand Smoke

• More than 600 million people alive today will die from smoking-related causes; half of them children.

• Cigarettes kill half of all lifetime users. Half of all deaths from smoking occur in middle age – between 35 and 69 years old, when individuals are most productive.

Global Smoking Deaths

Economic Effects of Tobacco Use

• The WHO estimates the annual global cost of tobacco to be US$500 billion – a figure higher than the GDP of 174 of the 192 UN members.

Economic Effects of Tobacco Use (continued)

• For nearly 50% of the world’s population, a pack of Marlboros costs approximately half of a family’s daily income.

• Smoking-related costs can contribute up to 15% of total health care costs in high-income countries.

Global Tobacco Control is Underfunded

Globally, tobacco tax revenues are 500 times higher than spending on tobacco control.

In low- and middle-income countries, tax revenues are 5,000 times higher.

Only 5% of World Covered by Effective Tobacco Control Policies

5% or less benefit from effective interventions to reduce use

•Sub- Saharan Africa

•China•Japan•Southeast Asia•Latin America•North Africa

•Eastern Europe•Southern Europe

•Western Europe, UK•USA•Canada•Australia

Countries in each stage

Adapted from: Lopez AD, Collishaw NE, Piha T. A descriptive model of the cigarette epidemic in developed countries. Tobacco Control, 1994, 3:242-247.

STAGE 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 3 STAGE 4

Four Stages of the Tobacco Pandemic

Tobacco Deaths in the Industrialized and Developing World, 2000 and 2030

2.1

2.1 7

3

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10

2000 2030

millio

ns

Industrialized countries Developing countries

While tobacco-related deaths will only increase slightly in the industrialized world during the next 30 years, they will more than triple in the developing world.

WHO World Health Report 1999.

World Tobacco Deaths -if Current Smoking Patterns Continue

2000-2025 ~ 150M

2025-2050 ~ 300M

2050-2100 > 500M

TOTAL for the21st century

1 billion

“Reversing this entirely preventable epidemic must now rank as a top priority for public health and for

potential leaders in every country of the world.”

Dr. Margaret Chan, WHO Director-General

We know what to do NOW:

• Educate the public about the dangers of tobacco use.

• Reduce the number of physicians who smoke.

Tobacco Control: A Global Remedy

• Make health care facilities smoke-free.

• Protect all nonsmokers from secondhand smoke.

• Regulate tobacco and other dangerous products.

• Raise cigarette excise taxes.

• Implement and enforce the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

Tobacco Control: A Global Remedy (continued)

Successes:

• Tobacco taxes

• Smoke-free laws

• Lower adult smoking rates

California: An Anti-Tobacco Pioneer – With Work to be Done

Needed improvements:

• Tobacco taxes

• Youth smoking rates

WHO Recommendations for Global Tobacco Control:

Monitor tobacco use and prevention policies

Protect people from tobacco smoke

Offer help to quit tobacco use

Warn about the damages of tobacco use

Enforce advertising/promotion/sponsorship bans

Raise taxes on tobacco

Source: MPOWER, WHO 2008

Good News

What will the effects of turning the tide be?

Hundreds of millions of lives could be saved.

Lung cancer could virtually disappear as a public health menace.

Global heart disease risks could be reduced by as much as 25 percent.

Trillions of dollars will be saved from health care expenditures and redirected to research and public health.

Thank you.