John Byrne - A New Energy Strategy for a New Climate

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Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

University of Delawarehttp://ceep.udel.edu

JOHN BYRNE

June 22, 2011

NEW ENERGY FOR A NEW CLIMATE

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New York

Times Square 1890

Times Square

1902

Times Square1921

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Seoul

Chongno-r 1890 Chongno-ro1910

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Avenida Rizal 1930s Avenida Rizal 1960s

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Energy Expenditures as % of US GDP

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

        1        9        9       5

        1        9        9        6

        1        9        9       7

        1        9        9        8

        1        9        9        9

        2        0        0        0

        2        0        0        1

        2        0        0        2

        2        0        0        3

        2        0        0        4

        2        0        0       5

        2        0        0        6

        2        0        0       7

        2        0        0        8

       P

     e     r     c     e     n       t

9.8% of GDP in 2008

Highest in 25 yrs

Source: Data used to prepare EIA Annual Energy Outlook, March 2009

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

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The scenario on the left (A1B) assumes a business as usual approach to carbon dioxide emissions, with growth in thepopulation, the economy and in fossil fuel use, leading to an approximate rise of 4 C by 2100.The scenario on the right (E1) represents what may happen if swift action is taken to constrain emissions. It assumesthat they will start to fall from 2015 onwards and that the global average temperature will rise by about 2°C by 2100.

Sources: IPCC (scenarios); UK Meteorological Office (maps)

The two projections begin to diverge dramatically after the middle of the century. By 2055 they are already more thana degree apart.

A 4 C rise threatens permafrost across the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland ice sheet is under pressure, the Amazonfaces twin threats of fire and drought, and sea levels could be up by 80cm (4 C scenario) putting coastal populations atgreater risk of flooding.

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Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

University of Delawarehttp://ceep.udel.edu

The Challenge of Climate Justice

   M   e   t   r   i   c   T   o   n

   s   o   f    C    O   2   P   e   r    C   a   p   i   t   a

WesternEurope

South Korea

Eastern Europe

18

0

3.3

   R   u   s   s   i   a

United

States

   J   a   p   a

   n

Sub-Saharan AfricaIndia Latin America& Caribbean

Sustainable Limit Sustainable Limit ——3.3 Tons 3.3 Tons  

500 million

Population 

China

CEEP research (Byrne et al, 1998, Energy Policy v. 26, n.4: 335-343) established the benchmark for an equitableand sustainable climate future: 3.3 tons per person per

year. The United States is the leading emissions debtor,exceeding the sustainable & equitable emissions limit bymore than 500%.

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-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

Needed Emission Reductions

Other*

Renewable Energy

Sustainable Land Use & Transport Planning

Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements

Non-Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements

New Emissions Above 1990

* Other includes 1.1 Gt CO2-e reduced through several options including:carbon capture & storage; waste & wastewater management; new nuclearpower plant designs.

Source: IPCC 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, WG III Report, Mitigation

of Climate Change.Supporting Sources: Olivier et al 2005 & 2006; WBCSD 2004.

2.5 (10%)

   G   T   C   O   2  -  e

7.2 (30%)

4.2

7.8 12.0

(51%)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

23.7

IPCC Assessment of Principal Mitigation Options

2.0 ( 9%)

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Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

University of Delawarehttp://ceep.udel.edu

U.S. Energy Obesity

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

  p  e  r  c  a

  p   i   t  a   k   W   h

California

United States

European Union

Per capita residential electricity use 1960-2006

EIA, 2009 State Energy Data System (SEDS); U.S. Census Bureau, 2007, 2000, 1990

Rest of US uses44% more

electricity thanCalifornians

CA Household Savings

per yr = ~$800

EU per capita kWh = ~1,750

EU Household Savingsper yr = ~$1,100

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Changing Built Environment Obesity

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

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The cost of saving energy is significantly less than electricity rates throughout the U.S.

 – not consuming

Source: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner (2008) The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market . ACEEE.

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US Household Savingsfrom Multi-modalism

per yr = ~$3,000

Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute. 2010. Evaluating Public 

Transit Benefits and Costs 

E ti t f th T h i l P t ti l f

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Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

Estimates of the Technical Potential ofRenewable Energy Resources

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass

Johansson et al (2004), WEC (2000)

de Vries (2007)

   E  x  a   j  o  u   l  e  s

010

20304050

Hydropower Ocean

   E

  x  a   j  o  u   l  e  s

* Assumes current technology conversion efficiencies.

World Energy Consumptionper yr = ~490 Exajoules

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Renewables – Approaching Parity

Data Source: Lazard 2008-09; CEEP (2010)

0

5

1015

20

25

30

35

40

   L  e  v  e   l   i  z  e   d   C  o  s   t  p  e  r   k   W   h   (   U   S  c  e

  n   t  s   )

Utility Scale

(competes inWholesale Market)

Average U.S. RetailElectricity Price

LCOE with US Incentives LCOE w/o Incentives

Distributed Energy

(competes inRetail Market)

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PV P t ti l i S l

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PV Potential in Seoul

Total AvailableRooftop Real Estate: 130.8 million m2

Assumptions: 40% of flat rooftop area used to collect solarenergy; PV module efficiency = 20%; Inverter efficiency: 95%

Sources: Columbia University, 2006; SEIA website.

2005 CityElectricity Use: 40.5 TWh

2005 CityPeak Demand: 18.8 GW

Solar PotentialElectricity Supply: 10.0 TWh (36%)

Solar PotentialPeak Shaving: 6.7 GW (51%)

900 MW1,354 GWh(14%)

Commercial

134 MW201 GWh (2%)

Public

885 MW1,330 GWh

(13%)

Educational

67 MW101 GWh (1%)

Industrial

197 MW296 GWh (2%)

Other

Residential

4,494 MW6,759 GWh

(68%)

Population = 12 million

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Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

University of Delawarehttp://ceep.udel.edu

GREEN JOBS: THE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY ADVANTAGE

Permanent Jobs Created per Million US$ Invested

ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION 12-15

Solar Electric (PV) 15.7

COAL PLANTS 4

RENEWABLE ENERGY 10-19

Smart/Green Buildings 14.7

Air Sealing / Insulation 12.0

Solar Thermal 19.0

Wind 11.9Geothermal 10.5

INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY 18-26High-Speed Broadband 26.4

Smart Grid 21.7

Intelligent Transport 17.7

^

Sources: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner, The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market . ACEEE. 2008.American Solar Energy Society (ASES). Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers forthe 21st Century. 2007.Singh & Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable Energy . REPP. 2001. LondonSchool of Economics (LSE) and the information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF). The UK’s

Digital Road to Recovery . 2009. ICT job creation does not include ‘network effects.’

Shifting the Energy Paradigm:

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Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

University of Delawarehttp://ceep.udel.edu

Developed at CEEP, the

Sustainable Energy Utility(SEU) is an innovativepublic-private partnershipfocused exclusively ondelivering renewable energyand conservation services

Implemented in:-Delaware-Philadelphia-Washington, DCUnder consideration in:-Seoul, South Korea

-Cities in China

Shifting the Energy Paradigm:The Sustainable Energy Utility Model

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Shenzhen, PRC 1980

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Leading PV Manufacturers

2006 2008

JAPAN 52%

CHINA 11%

CHINA 60%

JAPAN 25%

World Solar Cell Production =~1,700 MW

World Solar Cell Production =~4,100 MW

Sources: Prometheus Institute, 2009, PV News (April); Japan PV Energy Association,2010; IEA PVPS, 2010.

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United States

California

Per capita residential electricity use 1960-2006

EIA, 2009 State Energy Data System (SEDS); U.S. Census Bureau, 2007, 2000, 1990

ENERGY OBESITY

EU per capita kWh = ~1,750

European Union

60% Below 1990

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