John Blodgett OSEDA, UMC Sept. 16, 2010 / DBRL
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Transcript
John BlodgettOSEDA, UMC
Sept. 16, 2010 / DBRL
http://mcdc.missouri.edu/presentations/Demographics of Boone and Callaway Counties.ppt
American Community Survey, 2006-2008 (Census Bureau)
Population Estimates thru 2009 (Census Bureau)
2000 Census
ACS Profile report for the 4 geographic areas: Boone, Callaway, Columbia, Missouri
Generated from the ACS Profiles web app using the “PDF Printer-Friendly version”.
Narrative profiles for the two counties.
The majority of what we’ll talk about is from the ACS Profiles.
Conducted by the Census Bureau.
250,000 households sampled every month of every year.
Collects the data that formerly came from the decennial census long form.
No long form in 2010 census.
Trade-off between timeliness and statistical reliability for small areas/universes.
“Hispanic is not considered to be a race by the Census Bureau/OMB, but rather a separate ethnic category”
In 2009 Boone county had an estimated 4,157 Hispanic persons, or 2.7%
Callaway county had an estimated 672 Hispanic persons, or 1.5%
See Table D4 in the profile.
Mean retirement income is highest in Columbia ($27,426) and Boone ($24,687) and lowest in Callaway ($16,720).
19.4% of Callaway HHs receive retirement income vs only 12.5% in Columbia.
Median HH income in Callaway is highest of the 4 areas, and Columbia is the lowest. Why?
Mean HH income is highest in Boone followed by Columbia and Callaway. (doctors?)
One’s poverty ratio is a good measure of economic well-being.
By averaging those ratios for a geographic area you get a good overall measure of well-being.
Boone, Callaway and Missouri all have the same Mean Poverty Ratio value of 3.2, while Columbia has a value of 3.0
Unfortunately, the way poverty is defined makes college towns like Columbia appear to have more “true” poverty than they do.
Columbia has an overall poverty rate of 20.9% compared to 11.5% for Callaway.
For persons aged 18-64 the poverty rates for these 2 areas are 23.5 and 11.5, resp.
Columbia has a slightly lower poverty rate than Callaway for seniors (5.0 vs. 5.7%).
The poverty rate for “unrelated individuals” is 34.8% (!) in Columbia and 15.4% in Callaway.
In Columbia it’s all about the students.
These days the 3-year ACS period estimates of unemployment have to be considered out of date.
Fortunately, we have more recent and more reliable figures from the BLS.
As of May, 2010 the unemployment rates for Boone and Callaway were 5.6% and 7.2%, respectively. The Missouri state rate was 8.7% .
The corresponding rates from the ACS (2006-2008) were 5.1, 4.8 and 6.3.
County grew by 20,531 persons or 13% since (4-1)2000. July 1, 2009 estimate is 156,377.
16,338 of that growth came from Columbia and another 4,236 from the unincorporated areas of the county. Ashland actually lost 24 people. No growth in that area?
The state of Mo grew by only 6% over the same period.
County grew by 2,802 persons or 6% since (4-1)2000. July 1, 2009 estimate is 43,727.
Over half of that growth came from Fulton (+628) and Holts Summit (+861), and another 1,154 from the unincorporated areas of the county.
A lot of the growth is in the area across from
Jefferson City.
The 6% growth rate matches that of the state.
Done by Matt Hesser and Ryan Burson (Mo state demographers) circa 2007.
County and state projections by age and sex.
5-year intervals published from 2010 to 2030.
Excel workbooks on MCDC web site, one per county.
Each workbook has multiple sheets corresponding to projected years showing data and a population pyramid.
Boone county is about 3.5 times larger than Callaway: 156K to 44K (2009 estimates).
Columbia has 52% college grads, while Callaway has 52% who never attended college. (Boone has 44.7% college grads).
Boone appears to have a bit of a poverty problem but if you ignore “student poverty” it is not serious.
Boone has slightly more racial/ethnic diversity than Callaway.
Callaway has a significant number of retired persons with relatively low levels of retirement income.
Boone is projected to grow faster than Callaway over the next 20 years: in 2030 it will have 204k to Callaway’s 55k. Growth is projected to be much faster in the older cohorts (everywhere).
Vintage 2009 ACS data. Single-year data for areas of 65,000+ pop (Boone, but not Callaway) to be released September 28. 2007-2009 period estimates next January. 2005-2009 period estimates due in December (5-year data for all geographies!)
First sub-state results of 2010 Census in March, 2011. The “redistricting” (aka “PL-94”) file by law must be released by April 1.
2010 census only has basic demographics but has it for small geographic areas (down to blocks). No long form, so no data re income, poverty, education, etc. All that comes from the ACS now.
ACS data gets reweighted using Census results (for next year’s 2010 vintage data).
Missouri County Data Map / applinks
UM Extension Social & Economic Profile reports (handouts)
SF3 profiles for library districts.
MABLE/Geocorr library district geography
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