Global Product Market Trends The Outlook for NOCs Johannes Benigni Johannes Benigni JBC Energy GmbH JBC Energy GmbH June 24, 2010 June 24, 2010 Research Research - - Energy Studies Energy Studies - - Consulting Consulting - - Training Training World National Oil Companies Congress
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Johannes benigni's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress
Johannes benigni's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress that took place in June in London.
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28 June 2010
Global Product Market TrendsThe Outlook for NOCs
Johannes Benigni Johannes Benigni JBC Energy GmbHJBC Energy GmbH
June 24, 2010June 24, 2010
Research Research -- Energy Studies Energy Studies -- Consulting Consulting -- TrainingTraining
World National Oil Companies Congress
28 June 2010 Slide 2
Disclaimer
All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of future expectations that are based on JBC Energy’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things statements expressing JBC Energy’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, “forecast”, “predict”, “think”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation. Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation.
28 June 2010 Slide 3
Price Formation
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Jun 09 Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 Jun 10-10.00
-7.50
-5.00
-2.50
0.00
2.50
5.00
Nymex WTI Vs ICE Brent FL - right scaleICE Brent FLNymex WTI FL
Arab Light/Arab Heavy Differentials By Region [$/bbl]
Source: Saudi Aramco
Outright price of WTI Cushing in Oct 2003:
$29.65/bbl
28 June 2010 Slide 5
Crude Prices & Markets
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
FloatingStorage
2009[mbbls]
end-Jan end-Feb end-Mar end-Apr end-May end-June end-July end-Aug end-Sept end-OctSource: JBC Energy estimate based on info from SSY, Platts, Charles R. Weber, Argus, WSJ, Gibson, Poten, Thomson Reuters
Estimated Oil in Floating Storage as of End-May 2010
Germany Italy France UK Spain US Mexico Brazil ArgentinaSouthKorea
Japan China India Taiwan Russia Iran SaudiArabia
2008 Gasoline Demand over Q1 2007 2009 Gasoline Demand over Q1 20072010 Gasoline Demand over Q1 2007 2008 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 20072009 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 2007 2010 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 2007
2008/2009/2010 Q1 Gasoline and Gas Oil/Diesel Demand Change on Q1 2007 ['000 b/d]
Source: Official Data, JODI
28 June 2010 Slide 7
Demand – Short-Term Picture
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10