JOGMEC's approach for critical metals and efforts for stable supply Yoshihiro Kojima JOGMEC Oct 9, 2018
JOGMEC's approach for critical metals andefforts for stable supply
Yoshihiro KojimaJOGMECOct 9, 2018
1
Today’s Presentation
1. JOGMEC’s Activity/ Function for Stable Supply on Metals
2. China’s Influence on Global Metal Market from the view point of Japanese Economy
2
Today’s Presentation
1. JOGMEC’s Activity/ Function for Stable Supply on Metals
2. China’s Influence on Global Metal Market from the View Point of Japanese Ecnomy
33Natural Resources in Japan
Oil
Coal
Copper
Tin
99.3%
100%
99.6%
100%
• Since Japan has few domestic natural resources, Japan depends on imports for almost all of its crude oil, natural gas, non‐ferrous metals and minerals.
44The Importance of Metals for Japanese Industry
Percentage of Consumption: Japan/World (2017)
Source: World Metal Statics 2015(WBMS), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2015(USGS), INDUSTRIAL RARE METALS No.130(アルム出版社)
Au, 1.5%TiO2, 1.7%Zr, 2.0%Pb, 2.5%Ag, 3.1%Al, 3.3%Zn, 3.4%Mn, 3.7%Fe, 3.9%Cu, 4.2%Sb, 4.7%Mg, 4.8%Nb, 7.1%W, 7.3%
V, 7.5%Sn, 7.6%Ge, 7.7%Ni, 8%Co, 9.9%Ti, 12.1%Pd, 12.8%Pt, 13%Li, 14.0%REE, 14.8%Mo, 16%Ga, 44.9%In, 48.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
• Japan has high‐tech industries which utilize many types of metals; especially rare metals and REE.
• GDP of Japan is almost 6% in the world. Most of rare metals are above the percentage.
Iron, Base metalsRare metalsPrecious metalsRare earth elements
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55JOGMEC, Who We Are
• Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC), an incorporated administrative agency, is established by the Japanese government.
• The principal role of JOGMEC is to seek a stable supply of natural resources for Japanese industry as an agency implementing natural resource policies under jurisdiction of METI.
Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation(JOGMEC)
Metal Mining Agency of Japan(MMAJ)
Since 1963 Since 1967
February 2004
Japan National Oil Corporation(JNOC)
Coal & Geothermal units added
66
Headquarter: Tokyo• Metals Strategy & Exploration Unit• Metals & Coal Financial and Environment Unit• Stockpile Unit• Oil & Gas Upstream Business Unit• Oil & Gas Upstream Technology Unit• Geothermal Resource Development Dept.Two research centers in Japan• Metals Technology Center• Technology & Research Center (oil and gas)Worldwide network• 13 overseas offices gathering relevant information
Organization of JOGMEC
77Early‐Stage Overseas Exploration
• Take early‐stage risks to promote overseas explorations• Program
– Typical joint venture style exploration • Farming into an exploration project held by a foreign company, then transferring JOGMEC’s contractual interest to a Japanese company
• Target commodities– Base metals (Cu, Zn,...)– Rare metals (Ni, Co, REE, Li, ...)
H He
Li Be B C N O F Ne
Na Mg Al Si P S Cl Ar
K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr
Rb Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Xe
Cs Ba La Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Rn
Fr Ra Ac Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Ds Rg
La Ce Pr Nd Pm Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu
Ac Th Pa U Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr
P
K Fe
Discovery atWaterberg – for safe and low‐cost operation
Waterberg Outline • Exploration started in 2009, Discovery in 2011• Impala Platinum participated in the project in 2017 • Resources (cut‐off grade 2.5 g/t): [Indicated] 24.8 Miloz 3PGMs+Au [Inferred] 10.8 Miloz
3PGMs+Au• Prill Split : Pd 61%, Pt 30%, Au 8%, Rh 1%+ Cu, Ni
8
9Support Programs for Advanced‐Stage Projects
• Financial assistance to Japanese companies for overseas mineral explorations or development projects
• Programs– Financing for overseas explorations– Funding part of the equity capital– Guaranteeing the liabilities
10Financial Assistance
• Sojitz and JOGMEC agreed to provide a total of US$ 250M through loan and equity to Lynas’s Mt. Weld REE mine on March 2011.
• 8,500 tonnes/year of REE products can be delivered to Japan.
• First REE products were shipped in March 2013.
Mt. Weld REE mine
JOGMEC Sojitz
Japan Australia Rare Earths B.V.
Lynas
Investment
Financing (Loan & Equity)
Mount Weld Rare Earths Concentration Plant
11Financial Assistance
• Japanese group (JFE Steel, Nippon Steel, Sojitz& JOGMEC) acquire 10% stake in CBMM on March 2011 by investing US$ 1.3B.
• CBMM owns Araxá niobium mine, refining plant & metallurgical facilities.
• CBMM produces over 80% of global supply. • Reserves of Araxá mine is equivalent to over
200 years of world demand.
Araxá Niobium mine
JOGMEC Sojitz
Japanese SPC
CBMM
Investment
Aerial View of Araxá mine
JFE NSC POSCO
Korean SPC
NPS
10% 5%
Re‐evaluation of Criticality Matrix 12
• Refers to EU’s model
• Adjusts for Japanese industries
• Data used is 2012.
• Now updating
Supply R
isk
Economic Importance
13
Today’s Presentation
1. JOGMEC’s Activity/ Function for Stable Supply on Metals
2. China’s Influence on Global Metal Market from the View Point of Japanese Economy
Chinaʼs share in Copper consumption
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Others
Russia
Italy
Korea
Japan
Germany
USA
China
Refined Cu Consumptionkt
・In last 10 years, Chinese Cu consumption expanded by 8 million ton. ・On the other hand, ex-China shrunk・Chinaʼs share is about 50%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Others
Belugium
Germany
Japan
India
Korea
USA
China
Zinc Consumptionkt
Chinaʼs share in Zinc consumption
・In last 10 years, Chinese Zn consumption expanded by 3.5 million ton. ・On the other hand, ex-China shrunk
Chinaʼs share in Lead consumption
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Others
Japan
UK
Germany
Korea
India
USA
China
Lead Consumptionkt
・In last 10 years, Chinese Lead consumption expanded by 2.4 million ton. ・On the other hand, ex-China consumption grew only 800 k ton.
China’s Share of Base Metal Consumption (2017)
Refined Copper【World】23,460Kt(Cu t)
50.3%
Aluminum【World】59,190Kt
53.9%
Lead 【World】11,480Kt(Pb t)
41.3%
Zinc【World】14,213Kt(Zn t)
49.0%
Nickel【World】1,910Kt(Ni t)
40.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
‐
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,00019
50
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
age 15‐59 (working‐age population) age 0‐14 age over 60
Peak of working‐age population
% of working‐age population [RHS]
million people
Maturing China’s Economy and SocietyDecreasing Working‐age Population
・The peak of total population will come in 2030; 1.4billion people.・ But that of working-age population already peaked in 2010.
Source: World Population Prospects, UN, 2015
China’s Age Pyramid to 2050 ・Ending one-child policy was too late to stop decreasing working-age population.・Many people hesitate to have the 2nd
child because of weak social welfare.
The year of birth
Age
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
Cu Refinery Capacity in China
source: CRU
・Cu Refinery capacity in China expands to 11million ton in 2018 kt
25
2121Summary
• JOGMEC is a governmental agency seeking to stable supplies of natural resources for Japan.
• The impact of China’s growth in metal consumption affect to metal market.
• Economic tie between Japan and China is very strong, China’s economic and social change would give effect on Japan’s material industry.
• Mine development takes 10 – 15 years, we should imagine future economy/society in the world in order to keep stable supply of metals.