JK Tyre Industries BUY - 1 - Tuesday, 22 nd March, 2016 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. STOCK POINTER Target Price `153 CMP `84 FY18E P/E 3.29X Index Details JK Tyre & Industries Ltd. (JK Tyre), a part of the JK Group of Companies, is a leading tyre manufacturer in India. It enjoys a leadership position in the domestic radial tyres segment with a market share of 31% (as at end FY15). It has 9 manufacturing plants -- 6 in India and 3 in Mexico, through its subsidiary Tornel, which it acquired in 2008. JK Tyre is in a sweet spot with the fall in crude oil prices and vehicle sales showing signs of a recovery. We are optimistic about the company given that: i) Volume kicker through capacity expansions: JK Tyre is expanding its capacity from 20.5 mn to 23.1 mn units. The incremental capacity, 2.6 mn units at the Chennai plant, is expected to come on-stream by FY17. While realizations are dwindling due to a partial pass through of the fall in input prices, volumes are expected to receive a boost through the expansion. Overall, we expect revenues to expand at a 3 year CAGR of 3.4% to Rs 8,156 crore by FY18. ii) Margin expansion to drive earnings growth: Prices of crude oil and its derivative, i.e. rubber (key input), have slumped in the past one year owing to subdued demand and excess inventory. Correspondingly, JK Tyre reported an EBITDA margin of ~16.8% in 9MFY16, a jump of 460 bps YoY. We believe that the sharp slump in crude oil prices is over- done and a rebound is likely, given the output caps being put in place. However, the three digit prices of crude are a distant reality given the weak global economy. Prices could rebound to the $40 range and accordingly margins would dip too. We have factored in an EBITDA margin in the range of 15-15.5% over our forecast period. iii) Increasing proportion of radialisation: The proportion of JK Tyre’s revenue that comes from radial tyres has increased to 52% in FY15 from 35% in FY13. It plans to further increase the proportion to 65% in the coming 2-3 years. Higher sales from value added radial tyres provide a cushion to margins even if raw material prices reverse their downtrend. We initiate coverage on JK Tyre as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs 153 over a period of 18 months. The target price is arrived at by assigning a PE of 6x to the FY18E EPS of Rs 25.5. The target price translates to an upside of 82% from the CMP of Rs 84. Sensex 25,285 Nifty 7,704 Industry Tyres Scrip Details MktCap (` cr) 1916.6 BVPS (`) 61.7 O/s Shares (Cr) 22.6 AvVol(Cr) 0.25 52 Week H/L 133/77 Div Yield (%) 1.8 FVPS (`) 2.0 Shareholding Pattern Shareholders % Promoters 52.3 DIIs 1.7 FIIs 10.5 Public 35.5 Total 100.0 JK Tyres vs. Sensex 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2-Feb-15 23-Feb-15 16-Mar-15 6-Apr-15 27-Apr-15 18-May-15 8-Jun-15 29-Jun-15 20-Jul-15 10-Aug-15 31-Aug-15 21-Sep-15 12-Oct-15 2-Nov-15 23-Nov-15 14-Dec-15 4-Jan-16 25-Jan-16 JK Tyres Sensex Key Financials (` in Cr) Y/E Mar Net Sales EBITDA PAT EPS (`) EPS Growth (%) RONW (%) ROCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) 2015 7384 931 329.66 14.54 -33.4 18% 18% 7.3 5.6 2016E 6948 1,081 439.22 19.36 27.1 18% 20% 4.3 4.0 2017E 7555 1,135 496.41 21.89 13.4 20% 20% 3.8 3.7 2018E 8156 1,223 579.13 25.53 35.3 20% 21% 3.3 2.7
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JK Tyre Industries BUY
- 1 - Tuesday, 22nd
March, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
ST
OC
K P
OIN
TE
R
Target Price `153 CMP `84 FY18E P/E 3.29X
Index Details JK Tyre & Industries Ltd. (JK Tyre), a part of the JK Group of
Companies, is a leading tyre manufacturer in India. It enjoys a
leadership position in the domestic radial tyres segment with a market
share of 31% (as at end FY15). It has 9 manufacturing plants -- 6 in India
and 3 in Mexico, through its subsidiary Tornel, which it acquired in 2008.
JK Tyre is in a sweet spot with the fall in crude oil prices and vehicle
sales showing signs of a recovery. We are optimistic about the company
given that:
i) Volume kicker through capacity expansions: JK Tyre is expanding its
capacity from 20.5 mn to 23.1 mn units. The incremental capacity, 2.6
mn units at the Chennai plant, is expected to come on-stream by FY17.
While realizations are dwindling due to a partial pass through of the fall
in input prices, volumes are expected to receive a boost through the
expansion. Overall, we expect revenues to expand at a 3 year CAGR of
3.4% to Rs 8,156 crore by FY18.
ii) Margin expansion to drive earnings growth: Prices of crude oil and its
derivative, i.e. rubber (key input), have slumped in the past one year
owing to subdued demand and excess inventory. Correspondingly, JK
Tyre reported an EBITDA margin of ~16.8% in 9MFY16, a jump of 460
bps YoY. We believe that the sharp slump in crude oil prices is over-
done and a rebound is likely, given the output caps being put in place.
However, the three digit prices of crude are a distant reality given the
weak global economy. Prices could rebound to the $40 range and
accordingly margins would dip too. We have factored in an EBITDA
margin in the range of 15-15.5% over our forecast period.
iii) Increasing proportion of radialisation: The proportion of JK Tyre’s
revenue that comes from radial tyres has increased to 52% in FY15 from
35% in FY13. It plans to further increase the proportion to 65% in the
coming 2-3 years. Higher sales from value added radial tyres provide a
cushion to margins even if raw material prices reverse their downtrend.
We initiate coverage on JK Tyre as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs
153 over a period of 18 months. The target price is arrived at by
assigning a PE of 6x to the FY18E EPS of Rs 25.5. The target price
translates to an upside of 82% from the CMP of Rs 84.
JK Tyre’s revenues have grown at a 5-year CAGR of 10% to Rs 7,383 crore in
FY15, backed by healthy demand, the launch of new premium products in the
passenger and commercial categories and an increasing proportion of radial
product sales. Going forward, we expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 3.4% to
Rs 8,156 crore by FY18E. The higher proportion of radialisation and capacity
expansion are expected to be the key revenue drivers. However, due to a partial
pass-through of the sharp fall in crude oil prices, lower realizations will limit growth
in revenues.
JK Tyre’s EBITDA and PAT have grown at a 5 year CAGR of 11% and 8% to Rs
948 crore and 324 crore respectively in FY15. During the period FY10-FY15, the
EBITDA margin has averaged at 9-10%, while the PAT margin has averaged at
~3-4%. With the softening of crude oil prices, its key input, the EBITDA margin
touched 16.8% in 9MFY16, a jump of 460 bps YoY. Going forward, we expect
crude oil prices to settle at $40/barrel and have factored in EBITDA margins of
15%-15.5% over our forecast period of FY16-18.
Revenue Growth trend
-20%
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10%
20%
30%
40%
0
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7000
8000
9000
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
Rs cr
Revenue Revenue Growth (RHS)
Source: JK Tyre Ventura Research
Revenue growth: 31% Demand: Strong Crude Prices: Sharp recovery from $30 to $96/ barrel as global economy started to pick-up
Revenue growth: 6.2% Demand: Started to slowdown owing to policy logjam and halt in capex cycle Crude Prices: Consolidated between $100-$110/barrel
Revenue growth: 3.4% Demand: Recovering Crude Prices: Sharp slump back to $30/barrel;
expected to settle at around $40/barrel
- 5 - Tuesday, 22nd
March, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Capacity expansion to drive volumes
JK Tyre currently has a capacity of ~20.6 mn units per annum, of which 6.6 mn
units are based in its Mexican subsidiary – Tornel (acquired in 2008).
The capacity of JK Tyre’s Indian operations has grown at a 3 year CAGR of 11%.
The average capacity utilization is around 100% in the Truck/Bus radials (TBR)
category and around 85-90% in the Passenger Car Radials (PCR) category. Going
forward, the company plans to enhance its Indian capacity (Chennai plant) by 2.6
mn at a total cost of Rs 1,430 crore, which is expected to be commissioned by
FY17. With existing capacities operating at optimum utilization levels, coupled with
improvement in demand, we believe the expansion will yield higher volumes with a
minimal lag, post commissioning. This is likely to offset the impact of lower
realizations on account of the partial pass-through of reduced crude oil prices and
lead to an overall revenue CAGR of 3.4% over FY16-FY18.
Profitability trend
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
(200)
-
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1,000
1,200
1,400
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
in Rs crore
EBITDA PAT EBITDA margin (RHS) PAT margin (RHS)
Source: JK Tyre Ventura Research
RM as a % of revenues increased from 62% to 71% in FY11; as crude prices could not be entirely passed on, EBITDA margin fell from 13% to 6% in FY11
RM as a % of revenues reduced from 76% to 64% in FY14;strong demand and stable crude prices helped recovery in EBITDA margin from 5% in FY12 to 12% in FY14
RM as a % of revenues to remain in the range of 60-61%; slump in crude oil prices resulted in a jump in EBITDA margins in 9MFY16, we expect crude oil prices to stabilize at $40/barrel and EBITDA margin to remain at 15-15.5% over the forecast period.
- 6 - Tuesday, 22nd
March, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
There have been no expansions in the Mexican subsidiary, Tornel, since its
acquisition. The Tornel plant is operating at a utilization of 60%-70% in the PCR
category. The company is planning to increase the capacity in Tornel by 1.65 mn
units going forward. However, since the expansion is only in the planning phase,
we have not considered the same into our projections.
Acquisition of Cavendish Industries gets CCI nod
In September 2015, JK Tyre and its wholly owned subsidiary, JK Asia Pacific –
Singapore, entered into an agreement with Kesoram Industries to acquire a 100%
stake in Cavendish Industries (CIL) (a 99% subsidiary of Kesoram) for Rs 2,200
crore. In February 2016, the deal received the CCI nod. CIL, with a capacity of ~5
mn tyres, manufactures a range of tyres, tubes and flaps at its plant located in
Haridwaar. The acquisition will be funded by a combination of debt and equity by
JK Tyre and its group companies; JK Tyre is to have the largest shareholding with
an investment of Rs 450 crore. The acquisition will:
i) help the company expand its presence in the TBR market
ii) provide an entry point into the fast growing two and three wheeler tyre market
iii) and help earn marketing and distribution margins
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
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