Jimmy Yu - Dell'oro Group - Forecast for the Mobile Backhaul Market Directions for Microwave Backhaulasterclass d2

Forecast for the Mobile Backhaul MarketDirections for Microwave Backhaul

Jimmy Yu

BBWF 2011

Page 2 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

Presentation

Mobile Broadband Drives Change

Cell Site Backhaul Demand Intensify

Demand for Point-to-Point Microwave

Shift to Ethernet

Vendor Landscape

Page 3 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

Total Mobile Subscribers

Subscribe

rs in B

illio

ns

4

8

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

WiMAX

LTE

HSPA

CDMA

GSM

Page 4 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

2

4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

WiMAX

LTE

EV-DO

HSPA

Mobile Broadband Subscribers

Subscribe

rs in B

illio

ns

4X

Growth

Page 5 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

Presentation

Mobile Broadband Drives Change

Cell Site Backhaul Demand Intensify

Demand for Point-to-Point Microwave

Shift to Ethernet

Vendor Landscape

Page 6 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

Global Cell Site Demand

Num

ber

in M

illio

ns

0

3

6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Latin America

Asia Pacific

EMEA

North America

Page 7 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

Cell Site Backhaul Capacity

UMTS HSPA HSPA+ LTE

RAN Peak Throughput 2 Mbps 14 Mbps 42 Mbps 100 Mbps

RAN Average Throughput 0.25 Mbps 3 Mbps 5 Mbps 10 Mbps

Min Cell Site Backhaul * 1 Mbps 12 Mbps 20 Mbps 40 Mbps

Average Cell Site

Backhaul (interface)

3 Mbps

(2 E1)

36 Mbps

(18 E1)

60 Mbps

(100 MbE)

120 Mbps

(1 GigE)

* Calculated as 30% above the RAN average bandwidth of a 3 sector antenna.

Page 8 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

Presentation

Mobile Broadband Drives Change

Cell Site Backhaul Demand Intensify

Demand for Point-to-Point Microwave

Shift to Ethernet

Vendor Landscape

Page 9 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

Mobile Backhaul Market

Revenue in $

Bill

ions

$0.0

$4.5

$9.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Routers & Switches

Fiber / Copper

Microwave

Page 10 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

PtP Microwave Market

Revenue

Share

0%

50%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Packet Hybrid TDM

Page 11 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

Radio Transceiver Shipments

Unit S

hip

me

nts

in M

illio

ns

0

1

2

3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ultra-High Capacity

High Capacity

Low Capacity

Page 12 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

PtP Microwave Market Regions

26%

23% 28%

11%

12%

North America

Europe

Middle East, Africa

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Page 13 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

PtP Microwave Vendor Landscape

TDM Packet Hybrid0%

50%

100%

NEC

Alcatel-Lucent

Ericsson

Ceragon

Nokia Siemens

Aviat Networks

Others

Alcatel-Lucent

Nokia Siemens

DragonWave

Others

Ericsson

Huawei

NEC

Aviat Networks

Ceragon

Nokia Siemens

Others

$0.8 B $0.6 B $3.5 B

Trailing Four-Quarter Revenue: $5 Billion

5-Yr CAGR (10-15): 6%

-19% 17% 7%

Page 14 © 2011 Dell’Oro Group

Thank You