Regional Event Briefing Regional Event Briefing Regional Event Briefing Regional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branch Hydrology and Hydraulics Branch September 28, 2010 September 28, 2010 US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ®
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Regional Event BriefingRegional Event BriefingRegional Event BriefingRegional Event BriefingJim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E.
John Daylor P.E.John Daylor P.E.Hydrology and Hydraulics BranchHydrology and Hydraulics BranchSeptember 28, 2010September 28, 2010
US Army Corps of EngineersBUILDING STRONG®
Regional Event Briefing:Regional Event Briefing:Reservoir Reservoir InfowInfow & Elevation Forecasting& Elevation Forecasting
John Daylor P.E.John Daylor P.E.Hydrology and Hydraulics BranchSeptember 28 2010September 28 2010September 28, 2010September 28, 2010
US Army Corps of EngineersBUILDING STRONG®
Reservoir Inflow & Elevation Forecasting:Reservoir Inflow & Elevation Forecasting:
What is it?What is it?Obtain estimated stream flow into reservoir toObtain estimated stream flow into reservoir toObtain estimated stream flow into reservoir to Obtain estimated stream flow into reservoir to
anticipate effects and actions for reservoir anticipate effects and actions for reservoir management (timing, peak, and volume). management (timing, peak, and volume). g ( g, p , )g ( g, p , )
Why?Why?Why?Why?Enhance decisions & operations of reservoir & Enhance decisions & operations of reservoir &
system for authorized purposes. system for authorized purposes. y p py p p
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Variability of Reservoir Inflow Variability of Reservoir Inflow and Elevation Forecastingand Elevation Forecasting
NonNon--Exact Science of HydrologyExact Science of HydrologyAntecedence, Moisture ConditionsAntecedence, Moisture ConditionsAntecedence, Moisture ConditionsAntecedence, Moisture ConditionsSeasonal EffectsSeasonal EffectsStorm Size & Pattern & DurationStorm Size & Pattern & DurationStorm Size & Pattern & DurationStorm Size & Pattern & DurationField Data ReliabilityField Data ReliabilityInitial Conditions of ReservoirInitial Conditions of ReservoirInitial Conditions of ReservoirInitial Conditions of ReservoirBasin System Conditions, Fullness Basin System Conditions, Fullness
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Upper Verdigris River Basin
Toronto Lake
Fall River Lake
Big Hill LakeElk City Lake
Oologah Lake
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Upper Verdigris River BasinRegulation Point
Toronto LakeCoyville
Fall River LakeAltoona
Fredonia
Fall River
Big Hill LakeElk City Lake Cherryvale
Coffeyville
Independence
Oologah Lake
Coffeyville
Lenapah
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Toronto Lake & Dam:Upper Verdigris River BasinUpper Verdigris River Basin
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24-Hour Precipitation from Digital Radar7 AM 8 June – 7 AM 9 June 2010
7.72’’
7 82’’7.82
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Toronto Dam 3.10’’
Verdigris River @ Virgil, KSObserved & Forecasted River Flow
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Toronto Lake Inflow & Elevation Forecast
Surcharge Zone
Top Flood Storage Zone Elev 931.0
Flood Storage Zone@ Elev 926.0
73.2% F.S.
Normal Lake Elev 901.5
Forecasted Inflow
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Release Plan
Reservoir Inflow & Reservoir Inflow & Elevation ForecastingElevation Forecasting
Questions?Questions?Questions?Questions?
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