Jessica Ludy, Unesco-IHE, ARCADIS-US Natural Hazard Mitigation Association June 27, 2013 University of California, Berkeley United States Fulbright Program.

Jessica Ludy, Unesco-IHE, ARCADIS-US

Natural Hazard Mitigation AssociationJune 27, 2013

University of California, BerkeleyUnited States Fulbright Program

Technische Universiteit Delft, Netherlands

With contributions from G. Matt Kondolf and John Cain

Flood Risk Perception on Lands ‘Protected’ by Levees

“The levees were built to protect us for 100 years.”

A 100-year Flood is…A 100-year Flood is…

“A major flood that comes every 100 years—it’s a worst-case scenario.”


“The last flood came in 1950—the next one will be in 2050.”


“Flooding is unlikely and if flooding occurs, it will be minimal.”

I would not evacuate because…I would not evacuate because…

“I am handicapped and disabled, and have trouble getting around.”


“I swim very well…”


“I don’t know where else to go.”


“I can assure you any efforts you make to communicate risk to these people will be squashed”

-(paraphrased) Anonymous City Planner, Unnamed Levee-protected town, United States

Jones Tract, 2004

Flooding is the number one natural hazard in the world (and the US)

Thailand 2011: Credit: Lyon

Sacramento, CA 1850

Londonderry, VT: Romalo 2011

Jones Tract, CA 2004Arkansas City, AR, 1927

Australia, 2011; P. Hamilton

Introduction

Introduction

Flooding is the number one natural hazard in the world

Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

Flood damages are rising

Despite a U.S. policy aimed at reducing risk

Introduction

Introduction

New Orleans 1965New Orleans 1927 New Orleans 2005

NOAA photo library


Flood damages are rising, A fatal flaw in policy: land behind levees no longer considered official “floodplain”

increasing development (risk) behind the levees.

Despite a U.S. policy aimed at reducing risk

Introduction

Introduction

San Joaquin County, California, 2010San Joaquin County, California, 2010


Risk =probability X consequences

Introduction

Introduction

Jessica Ludy, 13 November, 2012Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

In the United States, Levees Increase Risk

Image: Jessica Ludy

Introduction

Introduction


Sacramento “Pocket”California Dept Water Resources

Times Picayune 2010

55% U.S. Population Lives in Counties Protected by levees-

Goal: to reduce federal expenditures in disaster relief

Flood Insurance Act 1968

Graphics: Jessica Ludy

National Flood Insurance Program



Floodplain Management Flood InsuranceFlood Hazard Mapping

Flood Insurance Act 1968

Adopted an insurance standard of 1/100yr flood




“In the floodplain”No new developmentInsurance required“floodproof” houses

100-year floodplain

Special Flood Hazard Area

How it works




“Out of the floodplain”No insurance requiredNo building requirements

“In the floodplain”No new developmentInsurance required“floodproof” houses

100-year floodplain

Special Flood Hazard Area

“Devil is the the Details” Land behind levees treated differently

Sound Idea: identify flood-prone lands, map them, and prohibit development therein.



Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013

The story of Bill and Bob

20

10

0

100 year flood

Bob has to buy flood insuranceBill is ‘safe’ behind a

FEMA –accredited levee

Graphic: John Cain




How well do residents “protected” by 100-year levees understand their true level of risk?

Other studies:Burningham et al (2008): U.KTerpstra and Gutteling (2008): NetherlandsSiegrist and Gutscher (2006): Switzerland

The QuestionThe Question

Why does it matter?

Behavior in an emergency is tied to risk perception

Flood losses tend to be larger where people are unaware

Exposing people to involuntary risk means people cannot choose to avoid the threat


Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

Sacramento River, upstream of the DeltaGulf of Mexico, New Orleans

50 F0

88 F0

How well do residents “protected” by 100-year levees understand their

true level of risk?

In a floodplain: water levels rise slowlyBehind a levee: wall of water


Why does it matter?


Experience MediaTrust in structures

“100-year flood?”

Misunderstanding terminology

BenefitsTrust in administration

Factors influencing risk perception

Denial



Trust in structures

BenefitsTrust in administration


Typical “Raised Basement” house, New Orleans


Sacramento-San Joaquin DeltaSacramento-San Joaquin Delta


Stockton

• New development (2000)

• 1300 houses

• Reaccredited 100-yr levee (PAL in 2006)

Spanos Park West, Stockton



Stockton

• 30,800 houses slated for development in San Joaquin County that face a flood threat

(Fridirici, 2008)



Lands from 0 to -4m below sea-level

Bear Creek Levee

Bear Creek Levee Bear Creek



Most households earn $80,000/year

Most households have a 4-year university degree

Ethnically diverse

Development Characteristics



Survey questions: awareness, preparation, concern, flood knowledge, experience

Bear Creek Levee

Bear Creek

Pumping station

MethodMethod


Residents not aware of flood risk

Not told they are at risk

Unprepared for a flood

ResultsResults

Survey Results

Photo: Andrea Gaffney


Risk Perception

ResultsResults

How confident are you that your levee will protect you?

Is your property at risk?

not at all

somewhat

confident

very

high

moderate

low

not at all

very concerned

concerned

somewhat

no

Concern of flooded property


If a levee broke and your property flooded, how deep would it get?

ResultsResults

50% were correct50% underestimated or were unsure


Expected damage to property

“gone…everything…Total loss”.

“carpet, floors, walls, insulation…”

“six inches at best, I’d think”

“hardly any, maybe just the front lawn”

ResultsResults

ASCE 2005


Access to information?

ResultsResults

60% have not been informed

60% rarely hear about flooding

30% never hear about flooding

6% spoke with a real estate agent about flooding


Understanding of a “100-year flood”

no

yes

somewhat

Thought they understood, but didn’t

ResultsResults

31%

2.6%

14%

52.4%


“The last flood came in 1950—the next one will be in 2050”

“Levees were made to protect us for 100 years”

“A major flood that comes every 100 years, it’s a worst—case scenario.”

ResultsResults


Understanding of a “100-year flood”

20% households have flood insurance

13% residents took “precautionary measures”: evacuation plans, valuables on 2nd story, disaster supply kit.

No boats.

Preparation

ResultsResults

Noaa photo library


Neighborhood Voices

ResultsResults

“It is my understanding that my area is not in a flood zone. That the levees have been reinforced in the 1980s. If I felt or learned that a flood was eminent, I would take the steps to protect my property.’’

“We’re pretty insulated and inland. I can’t imagine that we would sustain much flood damage.”


What does it mean?

What does it mean?

Residents are exposed to involuntary risk

People of all levels of income/education are unaware

Perception that “100-year” standard protects from all flooding

*May 6, 2012Bear Creek Levee“Unacceptable Status”


Policy indicates it is safe?Trust in Governments?

(Terpstra & Gutteling 2008; Motoyoshi 2006)

Why aren’t residents aware?Why aren’t residents aware?


Political pressure to prevent declining property valuesengineers, politicians, emergency responders keep risk quiet



“If New Orleans is ever flooded, the world will not know it unless there is some outside newspaper man there.

The newspapers of New Orleans have not told their people the actual situation. It’s business depression that’s feared. Many leaders of the town had much rather take a chance at loss of life and destruction of property than face the possibility of the grain markets slumping a couple of notches…”

Rising Tide, John Barry



“We’ve lost the Pioneer spirit”-Ron Baldwin, San Joaquin County Emergency Services

Photo: Califiornia Dept. of Water Resources



Mississippi River Gulf Outlet

Photo: Jessica Ludy



Diverted and disconnected our rivers from the peopleEngineered ourselves out of the “floodplain”

Walnut Creek

Los Angeles



Dresden, Germany

Galway, Ireland

Sächsische Schweiz, Germany

Memories of FloodsMemories of Floods

Vaison-la-Romaine, FR

Köln, Germany



Köln, Germany

Dordrecht, the Netherlands

Solutions? Solutions?

Communication Efforts:

Jessica Ludy, 13 November, 2012

Any guesses?


Harrison Ave, New Orleans, LA

Stockton, California, USA

Memory-free subdivisions



Discussion: What Can we do?Discussion: What Can we do?

How do you raise awareness in such a landscape?

Whose responsibility is it?


20

10

0

100 year flood

The United States is not alone.




There is risk everywhere, so why regulate in floodplains?

Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013


Policy Changes:Land use restrictions in deep floodplains

Building codes behind levees

Risk disclosure prior to real estate purchase Source: California Dept. Water Resources

Elevated walkways in Hafen City, Hamburg

Image: Jessica Ludy 2010



Behavior Changes: Awareness could influence decisions to

•Move to, build in, buy, or elevate in a hazardous area•Take personal precautionary measures (insurance, evacuation plans, etc) •Respond during an emergency•Build political will for budget, construction, maintenance of risk reduction measures


Probability: Consequences:Levee/Dam Safety -Land Use PlanningBypasses -Emergency response

-Awareness, Education, Preparation-Building Codes, Insurance, etc


Communication Efforts:To be effective, risk communication efforts MUST:

•Delivered at the local level

•Tailored to individual households, communities

•Delivered from credible/trusted sources

•Consistent, clear, and non-conflicting content

•Encourage and motivate behavior

•Use various modes of communication

•Repeat messaging

Levees and the National Flood Insurance Program: Improving Policies and Practices April 2013


Updates to State and Federal Legislation

California: Flood Risk Notification in levee-protected areasBuilding codes *

National Flood Insurance Program: (July 6, 2012)* Flood Risk Notification in levee/dam-protected areas

Map residual risk (behind levees/dams)

What Next?What Next?


Communication Efforts:California Flood Preparedness Week, November 4-8 2013FEMA “Know Your Line” http://www.fema.gov/know-your-line-high-water-mark-initiative



http://www.fema.gov/know-your-line-high-water-mark-initiative

http://www.fema.gov/know-your-line-high-water-mark-initiative

“KATRINA”

“BFE”

Near London Ave, New Orleans

A few hundred feet south of breach

Post Levels on Levee-protected lands


“I need information. This opened my eyes.

Plus, I need to check whether this area is in a flood area.”



Ludy, J & GM Kondolf. (2012). Flood Risk Perception on Lands ‘Protected’ by 100-year Levees. Natural Hazards DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-0072-6

National Science Foundation EFRI grant 036047UC-Berkeley: Landscape Architecture & Environmental PlanningRon Baldwin, San Joaquin County Office of Emergency ServicesChris Neudeck, KSN Inc.United States Fulbright Program

Thank You

Thank You

CONTACT: Email: [email protected]://thewateraway.wordpress.com

Colbert Report

mailto:[email protected]

http://thewateraway.wordpress.com/

Jessica Ludy, Unesco-IHE, ARCADIS-US Natural Hazard Mitigation Association June 27, 2013 University of California, Berkeley United States Fulbright Program.

Documents

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