K-12 Funding Update Jerry Coleman – Director School Finance and Organization Table of Contents ND K-12 2016-17 Statistics 1 ND Population Historical Overview 2 ND Population Estimates 3 ND Population Projections 4 ND Public K-12 Enrollment Projections 5 ND Public K-12 Enrollment by Region 6 ND Public K-12 Enrollment by County 7-8 ND Public K-12 Enrollment Cohorts 9 2016-17 Enrollment Observations 10 ND Teacher Base Salary and FTE History 11 Estimated Average Teacher Salary by State 12 K-12 Appropriation History 13 North Dakota K-12 Funding Formula 14 State Aid to Schools Payment Worksheet 2016-17 15-16 Statewide Statistical Summary 17 Cost to Continue 18 DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION Kirsten Baesler, Superintendent 600 East Boulevard Avenue Dept. 201 Bismarck, North Dakota 58505-0440
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Jerry Coleman – Director School Finance and … Funding Update Jerry Coleman – Director School Finance and Organization Table of Contents ND K-12 2016-17 Statistics 1 ND Population
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K-12 Funding Update
Jerry Coleman – Director School Finance and Organization
Table of Contents ND K-12 2016-17 Statistics 1 ND Population Historical Overview 2 ND Population Estimates 3 ND Population Projections 4 ND Public K-12 Enrollment Projections 5 ND Public K-12 Enrollment by Region 6 ND Public K-12 Enrollment by County 7-8 ND Public K-12 Enrollment Cohorts 9 2016-17 Enrollment Observations 10 ND Teacher Base Salary and FTE History 11 Estimated Average Teacher Salary by State 12 K-12 Appropriation History 13 North Dakota K-12 Funding Formula 14 State Aid to Schools Payment Worksheet 2016-17 15-16 Statewide Statistical Summary 17 Cost to Continue 18
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION Kirsten Baesler, Superintendent 600 East Boulevard Avenue Dept. 201 Bismarck, North Dakota 58505-0440
North Dakota Census Office Population Projections of the State, Regions and Counties 2016
EXPECTED MIGRATION SCENARIO
The population of the state is expected to grow continuously from now to 2040, but begin to slow after 2030.
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE
Population change is generally counted in two ways: natural growth (births minus deaths) and net migration. There is a high level of interaction between these two components as the age groups most likely to migrate are those of, or near, child bearing ages and young children. Increased migration into the state has resulted in a significant increase in childbirths within the past few years. Under our expected migration scenario, this component is expected to continue to be a factor in the state’s population growth between now and 2025. Afterwards, natural growth is expected to surpass migration as the primary driver in the growth of the state’s population. Natural growth is expected to reach its highest level of contribution to the state’s population increase during the timeframe from 2026 and 2030 and slowly taper off afterwards, but remain positive.
Williston Minot Devils Lake Grand Forks Fargo Jamestown Bismarck Dickinson
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Public School Districts Enrollment by County, Past 12 YearsCounty County Enrollment Totals by School Year (matches Educational Directory) PRELIM One YearNumber Name 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Students Percent Frontier Oil Prod Big 10
Public School Districts Enrollment by County, Past 12 YearsCounty County Enrollment Totals by School Year (matches Educational Directory) PRELIM One YearNumber Name 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Students Percent Frontier Oil Prod Big 10
ND Department of Public Instruction Enrollment Cohorts 2017.xlsx 11/8/2016 jac
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2016‐17 Enrollment Observations
Enrollment in public schools declined by 25,000 students over a 15 year period ending 2010. Since 2010 enrollment has increased 13,127. The fall public K‐12 enrollment for 2016‐17 is estimated at 106,863.
School Districts declined by 70 over the same period. 178 districts … 150 k‐12; 26 elementary; 2 non‐operating in 2016‐17. 175 districts educate students.
The number of teachers remained relatively constant. Since 2010 licensed staff have increased 12%. Since 2010 enrollment has increased 14%.
More students are entering than exiting. Births reached a record low in 2001 and have been rising since then.
o Births in 2001 were 7,664 o Births in 2010 were 9,088 o Births in 2013 were 10,591 o Births in 2014 were 11,352 o Births in 2015 were 11,265
Grades K‐4 average 8,760, Grades 4‐12 average 7,880. Entering Kindergarten are 8,770, exiting seniors are 7,340.
Statewide projections show moderate enrollment increases over the next decade. We had been expecting enrollments to increase by 2,000‐3,000 annually. We have adjusted that to 1,000 to 2,000 annually.
60% of ND students are served in ND’s major cities where enrollments are expected to steadily increase. 64% of ND students are enrolled in 14 school districts with enrollment over 1,000. 58% of ND students are enrolled in 9 school districts with enrollment over 2,000.
Many small rural school districts will continue to experience declines. 95 districts lost an average of 14 students. 80 districts gained an average 25 students.
Impact from rapid oil development is real and unpredictable. The Minot, Williston and Dickinson regions showed no growth in students in 2016‐17. Fargo and Bismarck regions increased 1.4% over the previous year.
North Dakota Census Office population projections presented as of January 19, 2016: Since 2010 the state has gained an estimated 84,000 residents. On July 1, 2015 the state's population was estimated at 757,000. The state's population is estimated to be between 800,000 and 849,000 by 2020, a growth of 23% since
2010. A significant reversal of out‐migration, an influx in the number of adults of childbearing age and
corresponding increase in the number of child births has changed the make‐up of the state's population the past few years.
Licensed personnnel (FTE)‐ Teachers include classroom teachers, MR special education, SLD and ED, physical education, music, art,career and technology, Title I and any other type of teacher.
‐ Other licensed staff includes assistant directors, coordinators, counselors or counselor designates, countysuperintendents and assistant or deputy county superintendents, directors, instructional programmers, librarymedia specialist, pupil personnel, school psychologist, speech pathologist and supervisors.
‐ Administrators include principals and assistant principals, superintendents and assistant or deputy superintendents.
2015 Tables and Figures All Years of Tables and Figures Most Recent Full Issue of the Digest
Table 211.60. Estimated average annual salary of teachers in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Selected years, 196970 through 201415
#Rounds to zero.1 Constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, adjusted to a schoolyear basis.The CPI does not account for differences in inflation rates from state to state.NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Standard errors are not available for these estimates, which are based on state reports.SOURCE: National Education Association, Estimates of School Statistics, 196970 through 201415. (This table was prepared September 2015.)
IES NCES National Center forEducation Statistics Search Go
STATE AID TO SCHOOLS PAYMENT WORKSHEETNorth Dakota Department of Public InstructionOffice of School Finance and Organization
District Name County District Number Payment Month School YearBismarck 1 08-001 December 2016-2017
A STATE AID FORMULA:Student membership includes regular school year average daily membership (ADM). ADM for students attending school inMontana and Minnesota (NDCC 15.1-29.01), South Dakota students attending school in North Dakota (NDCC15.1-29-02.1) under cross border attendance agreements, and students in private or out-of-state placements for purposesother than education (NDCC 15.1-29-14) are also included.Student Membership ADM Weighting Factor Weighted ADM
1 Pk Special Education 135.90 1.000 135.90 2 Kindergarten 997.79 1.000 997.79 3 Grade 1-6 5,967.73 1.000 5,967.73 4 Grade 7-8 1,819.47 1.000 1,819.47 5 Grade 9-12 3,396.66 1.000 3,396.66 6 Alternative High School 114.87 1.000 114.87 7 Total Average Daily Membership (ADM) 12,432.42
Other Program Membership8 Alt High School (from line 6) 114.87 0.250 28.72 9 Special Ed ADM (from line 7) 12,432.42 0.082 1,019.46
10 PK Special Ed ADM (from line 1) 135.90 0.170 23.10 11 Regional Education Association (if member from line 7) 12,432.42 0.002 24.86 12 ELL Level 1 17.01 0.330 5.61 13 ELL Level 2 23.59 0.220 5.19 14 ELL Level 3 42.09 0.070 2.95 15 At Risk 3,244.86 0.025 81.12 16 Home-Education (district supervised) - 0.200 - 17 Alt Middle School - 0.150 -
Summer Programs18 Summer School 536.96 0.600 322.18 19 Special Ed ESY 1.36 1.000 1.36
Isolated School District20 >275 sq miles and <100 ADM - 0.100 - 21 >600 sq miles and <50 ADM - 1.100 -
22 Total Weighted Average Daily Membership (add lines 7 through 21) 13,946.97 23 School District Size Weighting Factor 1.0000 24 Total Weighted Student Units 13,946.97 25 Per Student Payment Rate $9,646.0026 Total Formula Payment 134,532,472.62
Formula Adjustments27 Transition Maximum Adjustment (from line 65) 162,375,422.50 - 28 Transition Minimum Adjustment (from line 70) 125,261,040.21 - 29 Total Adjusted Formula Amount (total lines 26, 27 and 28) 134,532,472.62 30 Contribution from Property Tax (from line 45) 23,484,637.36 31 Contribution from Other Local Revenue (from line 39) 1,951,911.98 32 State Aid Payment (line 29 minus lines 30 and 31) 109,095,923.28
State School Aid Summary Entitlement EFB Offset Net Entitlement1 State Aid Formula Payment (from line 32) 109,095,923.28 - 109,095,923.28 2 Transportation (from line 61) 1,268,002.76 - 1,268,002.76 3 State Child Placement 89,049.56 - 89,049.56 4 Special Education Contracts - Agency - - - 5 Special Education Contracts - School Placed - - - 6 Special Education Contracts - Boarding - - - 7 Special Education - Gifted and Talented - - -
Total State Aid 110,452,975.60 - 110,452,975.60
Excess Fund Balance Offset (from line 49) -
Department of Public Instruction Revenue Worksheet 2016 12.xlsm12/8/201615
SUPPORTING CALCULATIONS 2016-2017
B CONTRIBUTION FROM OTHER LOCAL REVENUE Total Revenue Percent 33 1300 Tuition 660,581.64 75% 495,436.23 34 2999 County - 75% - 35 US Flood - 75% - 36 Electric Generation, Distribution and Transmission Tax 83,441.00 75% 62,580.75 37 Mobile Home and Other In-Lieu Taxes 1,010,924.00 100% 1,010,924.00 38 Telecommunications 382,971.00 100% 382,971.00 39 Contribution from Other Local Revenue 1,951,911.98
C CONTRIBUTION FROM PROPERTY TAX40 District Taxable Valuation 408,476,930 41 Contribution Mill Rate 60 42 Contribution from Property Tax (line 40 times line 41 divided by 1000) 24,508,615.80 43 Minimum Local Effort Adjustment (NDCC 15.1-27-04.2) - - 44 Maximum Contribution Increase Adjustment (NDCC 15.1-27-04.1.4.a.) 23,484,637.36 (1,023,978.44) 45 Adjusted Contribution from Property Tax (total lines 42, 43 and 44) 23,484,637.36
D EXCESS FUND BALANCE OFFSET46 General Fund Ending Balance 12,308,357.90 47 General Fund Expenditures 153,712,602.27 48 40% of General Fund Expenditures + $20,000 61,505,040.91 49 Excess Fund Balance Offset (line 46 minus line 48, if less than zero enter zero) -
E TRANSPORTATION WORKSHEET
Transportation Statistics Rate Miles Rides Total50 Small Bus Miles 0.550 0.0 xxxxx - 51 Large Bus Miles 1.180 506,902.0 xxxxx 598,144.36 52 Rural Rides 0.320 xxxxx 843,446 269,902.72 53 Small In-City Miles 0.550 0.0 xxxxx - 54 Large In-City Miles 1.180 152,936.0 xxxxx 180,464.48 55 In-City Rides 0.320 xxxxx 684,425 219,016.00 56 Family - To School 0.270 1,760.0 xxxxx 475.20 57 Family - To Bus 0.270 0.0 xxxxx - 58 Not Reimbursable - 0.0 059 Total Transportation Reimbursement 1,268,002.76 60 Reimbursement Cap --- 90% of transportation expenditures 4,459,056.08 61 Transportation Grant Total (lesser of 90% cap or total) 1,268,002.76
F BASELINE FUNDING - MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM PAYMENTS62 Baseline Funding (2012-13 State Aid Formula Payment, MLRG, GF levies and 75%-100% In-lieu) 103,120,773.57 63 Baseline Weighted Student Units (2012-13) 12,400.35 64 Baseline Funding Rate $8,315.96
Adjustment for Maximum Baseline
Funding Rate Maximum PercentWeighted Student
Units65 Maximum Increase Amount $8,315.96 140% 13,946.97 162,375,422.50
Adjustment for MinimumBaseline
Funding Rate Minimum PercentWeighted Student
Units66 Minimum Increase Per Student $8,315.96 108% 13,946.97 125,261,040.21 67 Baseline Funding (from line 62) 103,120,773.57 68 Minimum Funding Percentage 100%69 Minimum Funding Amount 103,120,773.57 70 Minimum Increase Amount (greater of line 66 or line 69) 125,261,040.21
Department of Public Instruction Revenue Worksheet 2016 12.xlsm12/8/201616
Statewide Statistical SummaryNorth Dakota Department of Public InstructionOffice of School FinanceFoundation Aid ‐ Fnd Aid 5.0c For discussion purposes only
Actual Status est. @ Nov 2016 Preliminary Budget ProjectionsYear 2015‐16 Statewide Year 2016‐17 Statewide Year 2017‐18 Statewide Year 2018‐19 Statewide
1.6% 1.6% 1.6%Other Program Membership8 Alt High School 182.31 1,707,333 193.79 1,869,298 193.79 1,869,298 193.79 1,887,902 9 Special Ed ADM 8,626.03 80,782,771 8,768.11 84,577,189 8,904.41 85,891,939 9,048.82 88,153,604
Total Formula Amount 1,144,298,018 1,197,933,171 1,215,418,572 1,246,142,085 Transition Maximum Adjustment 1.30 (13,792,224) 1.40 (12,448,052) 1.40 (12,606,567) 1.40 (13,319,003) Transition Minimum Adjustment 1.06 42,396,997 1.08 42,675,850 1.08 44,510,150 1.08 43,284,617 Adjusted Formula Amount 1,172,902,791 1,228,160,969 1,247,322,156 1,276,107,699 Contribution from Property Tax 60 (200,372,189) 60 (219,723,221) 60 (236,947,552) 60 (252,850,501) Contribution from In‐Lieu of Property Tax 75%‐100% (50,491,948) 75%‐100% (53,716,355) 75%‐100% (53,664,765) 75%‐100% (53,407,650) Ending Fund Balance Offset 45% (1,581,680) 45% (1,148,391) 40% 40%State Aid Payment 920,456,974 953,573,002 956,709,838 969,849,548
52,529,410
Projection Notes1. ADM is projected using a three year cohort survival routine with 2016‐17 fall enrollment as the base year.2. Taxable valuation increases were projected using survey of the largest districts and 3% for the remainder.3. Other statistical data was based on data supporting the 2016‐17 payment year.
Department of Public Instruction Fnd Aid Formula 5.0c.xlsm 12/8/2016
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Cost to Continue … Increase Estimates … revised at November 17, 2016For discussion purposes only
State Local Total2nd year rate, students, taxable valuation increase 14,383,863 38,512,857 52,896,721 Add 2017‐19 student, taxable valuation increase 28,400,000 31,321,943 59,721,943 Cost to Continue ‐ 2017‐19 42,783,863 69,834,800 112,618,663
*Add formula adjustments 9,745,547 1,884 9,747,431 52,529,410 69,836,685 122,366,095
‐ Base adjustments for unobligated 2015‐17 appropriation (22,048,863)
Total increase from 2015‐17 appropriation 30,480,547
* Increase per student rate 1% the second year.
Based on 3 year cohort survival routine (two changes) and 6% taxable valuation increases