Jeff Lewis Vice President- Business Development Restoring flight is our business.
Aircraft Valuation Panel- 2013 AFRA Annual Meeting
Why the A320 Series? Factors Affecting Values Approx 5,300 aircraft still in service. (109 recycled)
Strong demand for airframe material HOWEVER… Commonality between newer A320s and classic
A320s is low – this is affecting values
Component values depreciation rate increasing
Retirement rate of current A320 fleet will accelerate with arrival of the NEO
Engine type directly affects aircraft values. CFM56-5A1 and V2500-A1 engines in low demand – very little value
Several older A320/A321 aircraft now available
A319s retirements starting to happen
Aircraft Valuation Panel- 2013 AFRA Annual Meeting
A320 Series Disassembly Dynamics CFM56-5B and V2500-A5 Engines and material
in very high demand. Solid lease candidates
CFM56-5A / V2500-A1 / PW6000 Engine and material in low demand – little value for redeployment or part-out
Older A320 component values falling
Newer A318/19/20/21 component values high and will continue to have strong demand (post 2001 build airframes will have 90% commonality with A320NEO
Strong demand for major assets (APU/TRs,etc)
Aircraft Valuation Panel- 2013 AFRA Annual Meeting
Why the A330? Factors Affecting Values Strong Demand for Aircraft (primarily RR powered)
Popular with Medium/Long Haul LCCs
Very low CASM.
Currently 944 in Service/40 in storage
Older airframes better recycling candidate
Airlines phasing out early models
Freighter conversion candidates – a work in progress
High demand for PW4000 and CF6 engines/material
RR Trent powered aircraft most popular with operators however little value / demand for RR material
Aircraft Valuation Panel- 2013 AFRA Annual Meeting
A330 Disassembly Dynamics Only 7 Aircraft Torn Down- MAS, Aer Lingus,
and bmi Airframes
PW4000 & CF6 engine material- solid demand
Solid demand for airframe components
Commonality between older A330 and A340
Strong demand for major assets- Heavy Weight Landing Gear / APU / TRs
Good demand for PW4000 and Trent TRs and Nose Cowls
Market saturation is a concern moving forward
Aircraft Valuation Panel- 2013 AFRA Annual Meeting
Why the A340? Factors Affecting Values A340-200/300 retirements accelerating. Its not an
economical aircraft.
A340-500/600 was not a popular aircraft with operators – very high CASM and reliabiliy issues.
Limited demand for CFM56-5C engines.
NO demand for RR Trent 500 Engines or material. RR has damaged this market (A340-5/600).
Over 80% commonality with A330 on components – this is driving the strong demand for material.
Solid demand for major assets (TRs, landing gear, etc)
As component values decrease, operators are buying rather than repairing.
Aircraft Valuation Panel- 2013 AFRA Annual Meeting
Why the Boeing 737NG? Factors Affecting Values B737-600 a lost leader – never was in high demand.
Retired aircraft being recycled.
B737-7/800 mass produced – over 4000 in service.
B737-700/800 are beginning to be retired. Rate will increase towards 2017 and 737MAX deliveries.
Recent resurgence in the market has seen aircraft destined for recycling redeployed as flyers. This will be short-term.
B737-600 / 700 / 800 / 900 high commonality with components and major assets.
Component values decreasing – by approx 50% over the past 7 years. Trend to continue.
Aircraft Valuation Panel- 2013 AFRA Annual Meeting
Boeing 737NG Disassembly Dynamics Very high demand for CFM56-7B Engines
Higher thrust (24K/26K) and SAC (not DAC) in highest demand
Engines and solid lease candidates
Airframe components in high demand due to the shear number of aircraft flying.
Major assets selling strong (APU/TRs/Nose inlets/landing gear).
Strong demand by Support Program (PBH, etc) suppliers to replenish stock.
Aircraft Valuation Panel- 2013 AFRA Annual Meeting
Boeing 737 Classic B737-300/400/500 aircraft available in mass quantity on the market
300/400 being redeployed as freighter conversions – has given some new but limited life to the market
Most assets now flying in Eastern Europe/South-East Asia/Africa (1200+)
Airframe component values have plummeted – airframe worth approx $100K
Major asset values falling – solid demand for material on the market at the lower values
Hundreds of airframes being disassembled and recycled
Strong demand for CFM56 engine material (following slide)
Aircraft Valuation Panel- 2013 AFRA Annual Meeting
CFM56-3 Engine CFM56-3 market has deteriorated – high number of engines being
disassembled, lots of LLP available on the market, and many new players in the MRO business.
Demand continues to be strong in the lower end of the market.
Many “new” operators are operating hot and high – high thrust engines with green time in high demand. (CFM56-3C1)
Solid lease candidates but lease rates falling rapidly.
Trend will continue as phase-outs of B737 Classics continue.
PMA material really affecting engine values and asset values not meeting expectation at time of sale.