JDP 3-40 Security & Stabilisation: The Military Contribution JDP 3-40 Security & Stabilisation: The Military Contribution Presentation by Lieutenant Colonel.

JDP 3-40JDP 3-40Security & Stabilisation: Security & Stabilisation: The Military ContributionThe Military Contribution

Presentation by Lieutenant Colonel Alasdair Balgarnie

Team Leader JDP 3-40

Development, Concepts and Doctrine Development, Concepts and Doctrine CentreCentre

Recent HeadlinesRecent Headlines• “Overstretched, overwhelmed and

over there.” • “Britain's armed forces, losing their

way?” The Economist, 29 Jan 09

• “Overstretch pushes British troops to the brink”

Daily Telegraph, 11 Jan 09

• “Why did it all go wrong. Re-assessing British COIN in Iraq.”

Strategic Studies Quarterly, Winter 2008

• “Blair’s Wars and Brown’s Budgets: from Strategic Defence Review to Strategic Decay in less than a decade.”

International Affairs, Spring 09

Emerging Concepts & DoctrineEmerging Concepts & Doctrine

Drivers Towards InstabilityDrivers Towards InstabilityDriven by Six Mega Trends

…Globalization

Top 1% of world population owns 40% of wealth …Interconnected world economies and opportunities …The ‘have-nots’ know it

…Shifting Demographics

60% will live in urban areas by 2030 … Africa, Middle East, Central Africa have 40-50% Youth

Bulge

…Weapons of Mass Destruction

~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … ~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … 3770 tons of enriched uranium … al Qaeda religious dutytons of enriched uranium … al Qaeda religious duty

…Climate Change

Arctic sea ice melted by 2040 … Desertification at 70,000Km2/yr … 1.4B confront environmental

fragility

…Failed / Fragile States

Account for 77% of conflict … Fragile states have 4 times terror problems … 28 of 51 African states high

risk

…Uncertain Natural Resource Availability

World food cost up 45%, shortages of rice, wheat & maize … triple digit oil prices … 450M face severe water shortage

A US Army ViewIn line with DCDC Strategic Trends

Major Combat

Counter Irregular Activity

Peace Support

Operations

Limited Intervention

Peacetime Military

Engagement

Level of violence

Spectrum of Conflict View

Increasing Level of Violence

Op

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Elements of a Stable State

Fragile States – Downward Spiral

Instability – The Problem

Stabilisation – The Solution

Stabilisation & COIN

Graduated Military Commitment

How does 3-40 fit in ?

Joint Ops Project

LWC Tactical Doctrine

Land Tactical PublicationsLand Tactical Publications

How does 3-40 fit in ?

Joint Ops Project

OGDs Allies

LWC Tactical Doctrine

JDP 3-40

JDP 3-40 sets out the Operational Art for:JDP 3-40 sets out the Operational Art for:

the UK military contribution

stabilising fragile or failed states, determining the nature, level,

principles and priorities that govern

and the principles governingtransitions to civilian and host nation control

StabilisationStabilisation

Stabilisation is the process that supports states which are entering, enduring or

emerging from conflict, in order to prevent or reduce violence; protect the population and

key infrastructure; promote political processes and governance structures which lead to a

political settlement that institutionalises non-violent contests for power; and prepare for

sustainable social and economic development

Terminology Terminology

JDP 3-40 Macro Structure

Part 1 - WHY ?

PART 2 - WHAT ?

PART 3 - HOW ?

PART 1: STABILISATION• The problem of societal conflicts within fragile states:

– the UK approach to the stabilisation– the underlying causes of state fragility and societal conflicts

• 3 big ideas:– ‘comprehensively’ across security, development and governance lines of operation– central conflict relationship - host government, competing elites (+ insurgents),

wider population– the national strategic aim - to foster the development of a political settlement,

amenable to broader UK interests between these actors

PART 2: THE MILITARY CONTRIBUTION TO STABILISATION• the nature of military engagement within stabilisation missions• the military’s role in influencing the societal conflict in ways which foster the

development of a political settlement• the generic types of operational tasks the military may be required to conduct across

security, governance and development lines of operation – permissiveness is the key• a set of principles for the use of military force

PART 3: CAMPAIGNING IN STABILISATION• the critical function of intelligence in underpinning the campaigning cycle• the specifics of campaigning within the stabilisation environment• the tools and insights necessary for conducting the iterative cycle of campaign design,

analysis, planning, execution and assessment• Anticipating, learning and adapting

JDP 3-40:JDP 3-40: Key ThemesKey Themes

• The Centrality of Influence in Stabilisation – to achieve a political settlement

• Stabilisation Activities & combat are both part of complex operations

• Host Nation sovereignty impacts on everything you do

• Security demands persistent presence – requires mass and is linked to capacity building

• Multinationality brings its own complexity

• Any plan must be comprehensive in its considerations – there should be an integrated theatre campaign plan

• The military are likely to have a significant role in the delivery of civil effect

• Anticipate, learn and adapt.

• Transitions – planned, managed - dynamic

Key Conflict RelationshipKey Conflict Relationship

QuestionsQuestions

www.dcdc.mod.uk