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Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake Junichi Ihara Consul General of Japan
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Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

Jun 18, 2020

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Page 1: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake

Junichi IharaConsul General of Japan

Page 2: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

9.08.07.06.0

Haiti (2010)

7.0

222,570 *

Kobe (1995)

7.3

Northridge (1994)

60 * 6.7

Tohoku (2011)

9.0

23,930 *Sumatra (2004)

9.1

227,898 *

Circles represent the seismic energy to scale.

.

Fatalities *

6,434 *

1,000 times more powerful

Page 3: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

Fatalities23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)

due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011)

Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa, Miyagi prefecture)

approximately 18 meters (about 60 feet)

Destroyed and Flooded area561 sq. km (about 219 square miles)about the same area as entire San Fernando Valley.

Direct Material Damage¥16 ~ 25 trillion ($200-300 billion) estimated

Page 4: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

盛岡駅

北上駅新花巻駅

水沢江刺駅

郡山駅

新白川駅那須塩原駅宇都宮駅小山駅

大宮駅

新青森駅

八戸駅

盛岡駅七戸十和田駅

いわて沼宮内駅

盛岡駅盛岡駅Shinaomori

Hachinohe

Morioka

Ichinoseki

Sendai

Fukushima

Nasushiobara

Omiya

Tokyo

Japanese High Speed Rail System Proved its Safety in the Earthquake

All 27 trains operating in area slowed automatically and stopped safely as designed

Not a single train derailment

No casualties among passengers or crew

No critical damage to rail infrastructure

Operations restarted only 49 days after this earthquake of unprecedented scale

Page 5: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

Recent Evolution of Japan’s Seismic Codes

1978 - Miyagi quake (7.4 Magnitude) 28 Fatalities & 6,600 Failed Structures

1981 - Seismic Standards Strengthened

1995 - Kobe quake (7.3 Magnitude) 6,434 Fatalities & 104,906 Failed Structures But post-1981 construction performed well

1995 - Government provides subsidies for retrofit to bring all buildings into compliance with 1981 Seismic Standards

(“1995 Act on Promotion of Seismic Retrofitting of Buildings”)

Page 6: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

About 100,000 members mobilizedSelf Defense Forces

Volunteers About 300,000 persons, as of May 16th

(total through the Disaster Volunteer Center)

Operation Tomodachi

Other Assistance from Overseas

Over 20,000 personnelAbout 20 shipsAbout 160 aircraft

109 countries & regions; int’l organizationsRescue and medical teams from 21 countriesUSD 186 million (excluding private donors)

Immediate Disaster Response (1)

(U.S. Navy photo by: Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Dylan McCord/Released)

Page 7: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

Total units required: 72,000Iwate 8,000; Fukushima 24,000; Miyagi 30,000

30,000 units built by late MayIwate 10,700; Fukushima, 9,300; Miyagi 10,100

Remaining units to be completed by August

Temporary Housing

First Supplementary

Budget4 trillion yen (approved May 2)For infrastructure, business reconstruction loans, temporary housing, disaster waste treatment, etc.

Immediate Disaster Response (2)

Page 8: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

Fukushima – 1.5% of GDP

Miyagi – 1.6% of GDP

Iwate – 0.9% of GDP

Most affected prefectures’ output is 4% of Japan’s GDP

Tokyo – 17.8% of GDP

Osaka – 7.5% of GDP

Fukushima: Info-communications equipment, electronic components, transport equipment

Miyagi: Electronic components, steel and steel products

Iwate: Transport equipment, electronic components

Region’s Industrial Profile and Output

Page 9: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

(MW)

Electricity supply before the earthquake

Reduction of peak demand through energy saving

measures

Summer peak demand

As of May 13, TEPCO is expected to be able to supply 56,200MW of electricity this summer.

March 11th This Summer

Page 10: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

3) All motion operated pumpsbecame inoperable

Seawater Pump

Elevation: about 10m

TurbineBuilding

2) Auxiliary diesel generators inoperable due to Tsunami

Diesel Generator

1) Off-site power from grid lostdue to Earthquake

ReactorBuilding

Seawater level

Tsunami (estimated 14m)About20M

About40M

GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy

5.4 ~5.7mBreakwater

Page 11: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

13

-Mar

14

-Mar

15

-Mar

16

-Mar

17

-Mar

18

-Mar

19

-Mar

20

-Mar

21

-Mar

22

-Mar

23

-Mar

24

-Mar

25

-Mar

26

-Mar

27

-Mar

28

-Mar

29

-Mar

30

-Mar

31

-Mar

1-A

pr

15

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

15

-May

Max

Min

(μSv/h)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

14-M

ar15

-Mar

16-M

ar17

-Mar

18-M

ar19

-Mar

20-M

ar21

-Mar

22-M

ar23

-Mar

24-M

ar25

-Mar

26-M

ar27

-Mar

28-M

ar29

-Mar

30-M

ar31

-Mar

1-A

pr

15-A

pr

1-M

ay

15-M

ay

(μSv/h)(μSv/h)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

13

-Ma

r1

4-M

ar

15

-Ma

r1

6-M

ar

17

-Ma

r1

8-M

ar

19

-Ma

r2

0-M

ar

21

-Ma

r2

2-M

ar

23

-Ma

r2

4-M

ar

25

-Ma

r2

6-M

ar

27

-Ma

r2

8-M

ar

29

-Ma

r3

0-M

ar

31

-Ma

r1

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

15

-Ma

y

Max.

Min.

(μSv/h)

MEXT, Fukushima Prefectural Government

Iwaki43km

Fukushima61km

Sendai90km

25

20

15

10

5

0

25

20

15

10

5

0

25

20

15

10

5

0

μSv/hour μSv/hour

μSv/hour

Fukushima Dai-ichi

Green box indicates normal range of radioactivity

Atmospheric Readings within 100 km

Page 12: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

Step 2Step 1

Mar.11 Apr.17 Around 3 months Around 6~9 months

Target Radiation dose in steady decline

Controlling release of radioactive materials

(significant reduction of dose level)

[Reactors]

[Spent Fuel Pools]

[Contaminated Water][Atmosphere/Soil]

Stable cooling - Resume heat exchange function- [Unit 1,3] flood up to top of active fuel- [Unit 2] Seal the damaged location

Prevent contamination spreadDecrease contaminated waterInstall reactor building cover

More stable cooling - Keep sufficient level of water

by remote-control- Resume heat exchange function

Achieve cold shutdown

Roadmap towards Restoration from the Accident (announced by TEPCO on Apr.17)

Stable cooling - Enhance reliability of water injection- Restore coolant circulation system- [Unit 4] Install supporting structureSecure storage place

Install improved cooling system

Improve working environment for employees at facility

Improve earthquake countermeasures

Page 13: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

1 2東京電力(株)柏崎刈羽原子力発電所

北陸電力(株)志賀原子力発電所

日本原子力発電(株)敦賀発電所

関西電力(株)美浜発電所

関西電力(株)大飯発電所

中国電力(株)上関原子力発電所

九州電力(株)玄海原子力発電所

東北電力(株)東通原子力発電所 北海道電力(株)泊発電所

東京電力(株)東通原子力発電所

九州電力(株)川内原子力発電所

電源開発(株)大間原子力発電所

東北電力(株)女川原子力発電所

東北電力(株)浪江・小高原子力発電所

東京電力(株)福島第一原子力発電所

東京電力(株)福島第二原子力発電所

日本原子力発電(株)東海第二発電所

中部電力(株)浜岡原子力発電所

四国電力(株)伊方発電所

Output Scale

Over 1,000 MW<1,000 MW<500 MW

Preparing for ConstructionUnder ConstructionOperating units Output (MW)

Operating 54 48,847Under

Construction 2 2,756

Preparing for Construction 12 16,552

Total 68 68,155

1 2 1 2 3

3 4 5

2 3 41

6 7 83 4 51 2

31 2

1 2

1 2

2 3 41 5 6 7

21

2 3 41

31 2

2 3 41

関西電力(株)高浜発電所

3 41 2

中国電力(株)島根原子力発電所

1 2 3

21

1 2 3 4

6

(商業用・2010年3月末現在)

3

3

Nuclear Power Plants in Japan

XXXX

Page 14: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2007 2030

Renewable 9%Renewable

~20%

Nuclear~50%

Nuclear26%

LNG28%

LNG~10%

Coal25%

Coal~10%

Oil13%

Zero Emission Power Sources

~70%

Zero Emission Power Sources

34%

Delivered Electricity by Source

0.1 bill KWh

Japan’s Changing Electricity Mix

Page 15: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

Increased 13%Increased 5%

Maintained 53%

Stopped 11%

Reduced 30%

Maintained 51%

Stopped 7%

Reduced 21%

2007 April 18, 2011

Public Opinion Poll – “What should be done about nuclear power generation in the future?”

Polls conducted by Asahi Shimbun newspaper

Page 16: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

Public Debt as % of GDPJapan 197%

Italy127%

UK84%

France92%

USA92%

Source: OECD

Page 17: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

Japan’s Household Financial Assets vs. Government Debt

(Source: Bank of Japan; Ministry of Finance, Japan)

Household Financial Assets

Government Debt

2009

Page 18: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,

9.1

0.2 3.8

-3.0 -3.7 -3.3

2.8 5.0

1.2

-3.3

-5.0

-11.0

-20.0

10.7

-1.9

7.2

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4

March 11, 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

September 15, 2008 Lehman Brothers

Bankruptcy

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4CY2010 CY2011CY2008 CY2009

ActualConsensus private sector forecastActual (before & after Lehman Shock)

Comparison with “Lehman Shock”Japan Real GDP change from previous quarter, annual rate(%)

Sources: “National Accounts” (Cabinet Office); “Monthly Survey of Japanese Economic Forecasts” (Economic Planning Association)

Page 19: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,
Page 20: Japan’s Recovery from the Great East Japan …...Fatalities 23,930 (15,202 dead + 8,718 missing)due to the Earthquake itself: 726 (as of April 19, 2011) Tsunami maximum height (Onagawa,