January 2015, elections for the Quirinale. Who will be the next Italian President?

The President of the Italian Republic

January 2015, elections for the Quirinale. Who will be

the next President?

January 2015

Napolitano: “I resign”

Wednesday 14 January 2015

10.35 am.

Napolitano signed his long announced resignation. It marked the end of the second mandate of the Eleventh President of the Italian Republic, the only President in the history of the Italian Republic to have been elected twice.

The only one to be re-elected, but not the only one to resign

Other resignations in the history of the Republic: !   Antonio Segni 6 December 1964, for health reasons; !   Giovanni Leone 15 June 1978, following a political and media

campaign regarding his alleged involvement in the Lockheed scandal;

!   Francesco Cossiga 28 April 1992, at odds with the political parties.

Elected in 2006 by the centre-left, Napolitano was unanimously named as the only candidate in April 2013 after the umpteenth PD debacle, and when the parties capitulated in the face of a political and institutional stalemate. Napolitano accepted, but asked the political parties for

«a similar collective sense of responsibility».

Nine years… marked by a sense of responsibility

In 9 years Napolitano nominated 5 Prime Ministers: Prodi, Berlusconi, Monti, Letta and Renzi. Little assertive in his office? Maybe. But for better or for worse, he was an experienced figure who ensured stability and knew how to counterbalance the instability of all the Governments that came and went.

He had his fair share of criticisms.

An example? A few too many signatures (e.g., the promulgation of the “Lodo Alfano”). And what happened to the reforms Napolitano pleaded for so forcefully? Far from achieved, if anything only initiated! More or less…

Long live King Giorgio! Or perhaps not…

And now? The only sure thing is the date…

Belgio 91

Lituania 22

Estonia 22

29 January: voting begins at 3 pm.

We know that those entitled to vote (Senators, MPs and Regional delegates) will assemble in the Chamber of Deputies (the only Chamber big enough to hold them all). We also know that the (secret) ballot is called “la chiama”. The “grandi elettori” are called to vote one by one, in alphabetical order, in booths set up for the occasion under the Speaker’s chair in the area normally reserved for members of Government. Senators are “called” first, then MPs and Regional delegates. However not everyone knows that the joint session is considered a “single session” even if it lasts several days, and that at least one ballot has to be held every day.

A single session is fine, but Christmas Eve dinner is sacred

During the joint session which led to the election of Giuseppe

Saragat (from 16 to 28 December 1964) voting took place on 24 December. It began at 10.30 am so that voters didn’t have to skip Christmas Eve dinner. Voting on Christmas Day began at 7 pm, so

they could also enjoy their Christmas lunch. During the election of Giovanni Leone in December 1971 voting took place on Christmas Eve. The session was held at 9 am so that voters were free in the afternoon and evening. Leone was elected at 1 pm after 14 days and 23 ballots. All at home for Christmas lunch. That year Father Christmas brought gifts as well as

the Sixth President of the Italian Republic.

Voto segreto, lo dice la Carta. Ma le cabine…

6 May 1962, election of Antonio Segni:

23 December 1971, election of Giovanni Leone:

13/25 May 1992, election of Eugenio Scalfari:

a complaint was lodged saying that ballot papers with Segni’s name had been placed in the ballot box. There was chaos. The ballot was invalid. some voters went into the booth with their ballot paper open rather than folded. discrepancy between the number of voters and the number of ballot papers. Marco Pannella called for measures to ensure a secret vote.  

From then on: ballot papers are stamped, initialled and handed (together with a pencil) to the grandi elettori who enter a corridor below the Speaker’s chair and express their vote… inside a booth.  

2015 Election : what happens this time?

Let’s try and be clear, if we can. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since 2013. Compared to the last presidential elections there’ve been rather substantial changes in the composition of the parliamentary groups: !   a  bigger, but nevertheless divided PD; !   a dissolved and reformed PdL (?); !   a  downsized M5S; !   confusion  even amongst the smaller groups. In 2013 a similarly complex general scenario led to the stalemate that set the stage for

the re-election of Napolitano.

Quiet everyone… the Prime Minister of the (relative) majority takes the floor

Words that say all and nothing, but in the end Renzi does say something, loud and clear…

“We have to discuss the profile of a good referee who will help Italy grow”.

“I’m thinking of a referee… and many names spring to mind!”.

“No vetoes, by anyone. FI, Salvini or the PD. We’ve had enough vetoes. A ‘take it or leave it’ approach is absurd”.

There’s only one answer:

NO All things considered, the Head of State can only be elected by putting together enough votes. So?

!   PD (without their minority group) + FI (without their dissidents)?

!   PD + FI + NCD + SC? !   PD + NCD-UDC + SC?

Equations are endless, but the cards are still face down. And will stay that way until just before balloting starts. And perhaps even during balloting.

Renzi thinks no-one should veto, fine. But is it realistic?

In the meantime there’s an extremely important and decisive measure at stake, one which will affect the vote for the President: the debate on the new electoral law. Here too the Prime Minister is extremely clear:

“either we approve the Italicum or we all go home”.

The threat of elections, feared by nearly all parties, may lead to strange bedfellows. Including a Renzi-Berlusconi partnership to vote the Italicum, i.e., FI would replace the PD minority group headed by Senator Gotor…

alla rielezione di Napolitano

Italicum, or we all go home

In conclusion, a few names?

There are many possible, more or less feasible… candidates:

Giuliano Amato for example. Strong rumours persist.

One thing is certain. Renzi, as he himself admits, wants someone who can bridge the gap between the Italians and the country’s Institutions. In short, someone who is popular and this would appear to eliminate several candidates.

Anna Finocchiaro? In pole position for grand voters from across the board…

And what about Sergio Mattarella? There appears to be a heterogeneous consensus even

for the eminent judge of the Constitutional Court. That’s enough, we’ll stop here. All we can do is wait…