Jana Cox Mandy Paauw December 4th 2020

Jana Cox & Mandy Paauw December 4th 2020

WCFD Sedimentation Strategies Workshop – 4th December 2020

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Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 2

Project aims and summary (Jaap Nienhuis – project leader) ................................................................. 2

High level panel ............................................................................................................................................. 4

Dr Munsur Rahman (Institute of Water and Flood Management, BUET) ............................................. 4

Dr Nguyen Nghia Hung (Southern Institute of Water Resources Vietnam) .......................................... 5

Delta case studies ......................................................................................................................................... 7

Ems Dollard - Dr. Jasper Leuven (RHDHV/WUR) .................................................................................... 7

Rhine – Dr. Eveline van der Deijl (Deltares) ............................................................................................ 8

Mississippi – Dr. Chris Esposito (TWIG) and Brendan Yuill (TWIG) ...................................................... 10

Mekong - Dr. Marc Goichot (WWF) and Dr. Andrew Wyatt (IUCN).................................................... 12

Ganges-Brahmaputra – Dr. Bas van Maren (Deltares) and Dr. Feroz Islam (UU) ............................... 15

Concluding notes on the delta case studies .............................................................................................. 17

Multi-criteria analysis ................................................................................................................................. 17

Preliminary work - Eline Sieben (UU) .................................................................................................... 17

Summary of game ................................................................................................................................... 18

Group 1a – Tidal river management in the Yangtze ............................................................................. 19

Group 1b - River diversions in the Yangtze .......................................................................................... 21

Group 1c – Planting vegetation in the Yangtze ..................................................................................... 23

Group 2a - Tidal river management in the Nile .................................................................................... 25

Group 2b - River diversions in the Nile ................................................................................................. 26

Group 2c - Planting vegetation in the Nile ........................................................................................... 29

Concluding notes on the MCA tool ............................................................................................................ 31


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Introduction River deltas worldwide are at risk of sinking due to subsidence, sea-level rise and anthropogenic activities. Growing populations in delta regions are at significant risk. But what can we do about it? In the interactive online workshop “Sedimentation Strategies for Deltas” hosted by a team of researchers at Utrecht University & funded by the Water, Climate & Future Deltas hub, we investigated options available for deltas to increase natural sedimentation and build land above sea level. We brought together experts from different disciplines and stakeholders from various deltas to talk about opportunities for and boundaries to the implementation of sedimentation strategies in deltas.

Organizers: Mandy Paauw, Joey O'Dell, Jana Cox, Jaap Nienhuis, Annisa Triyanti, Frances Dunn, Safaa Naffaa, Eline Sieben

Time (in CET) Programme 09:30-10:30 Introductory plenary

- Introduction to the project and its objectives by Jaap Nienhuis (UU) - Preliminary results - High-level panel on sedimentation strategies - Technical briefing

10:30-11:15 Discussion breakout session (part 1): - 5 case-based groups - Breakout panel with speakers - Brief Q&A - Discussion

11:15-11:20 Short coffee/tea break 11:20-12:20 Discussion breakout session (part 2):

- Game: 6 groups - Each group applies a sedimentation strategy to a new delta

12:20-12:50 Lunch break 12:50-13:30 Concluding plenary

- Main lessons from the workshop - Ideas for future research

Project aims and summary (Jaap Nienhuis – project leader) • Aim of workshop: to compare and contrast different sedimentation strategies • The objective of these strategies is to raise land to offset sea level rise, subsidence and land

loss • Knowledge is compartmentalised, but we need to learn from different deltas and approaches

globally • Bringing expertise from different deltas together • A review paper will follow from the workshop • Examples of strategies:

1. California - wetland restoration through levee breaching is restoring tidal action 2. Bangladesh - tidal river management is creating agricultural land 3. Philippines - mangroves planting is reducing flood risk and aiding sedimentation 4. Mississippi - river diversions where gated structures allow sediment into wetlands


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• We will build examples into a framework e.g. a “Kies Compass” where you input your interests and priorities in a multi criteria analysis and see which strategy works best for your delta

Figure 1: Research plan


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High level panel Two speakers were invited to discuss the general issue of sedimentation in deltas from a policy and delta management perspective. This was chaired by Prof.dr Hans Middelkoop (UU).

Dr Munsur Rahman (Institute of Water and Flood Management, BUET)

Figure 2: Presentation of Dr. Munsur Rahman

• Shared the issues faced by the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in terms of sediment • Many channels and distributaries - arteries that transport sediment, water, and nutrients, and

provide extensive ecosystem services • Population density in the coastal delta is 4-5 times higher than rest of the country • There is a lot of pressure in the delta: human actions are depleting sediment and water, and

local level stresses include subsidence, loss of wetlands and accelerated erosion • The sediment load in Asian rivers are decreasing because of human intervention • Tidal and coastal environments require good sediment management – we need to have

connection between areas to understand how interventions and their effects interact and their long-term effects

• The delta is heavily embanked: large areas are embanked and poldered for salinity and flood protection reasons but this changes flow and dispersion and has led to prolonged waterlogging in some areas

• Sedimentation is controlled by the presence of extensive polders: if polders are removed sedimentation would be widespread, however land use and economic pressure control where sedimentation can occur

• Working now on a delta model that focuses on processes that cover the entire delta and how they interact

• Seasonal changes are crucial in understanding sedimentation in the GBM • It is crucial to not only focus on local problems but integrate at the delta and basin scale

where cooperation is needed


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Figure 3: Pressures faced by the GBM delta

Dr Nguyen Nghia Hung (Southern Institute of Water Resources Vietnam) • Climate change is crucial in the Mekong delta • Both tropical and temperate climates are present • 90% is 2m below mean sea level – it is a very flat delta, making it sensitive to

flooding

Figure 4: Presentation from Dr.Nguyen Nghia Hung

• The delta is tidal dominated and tides drive flooding which often occurs, particularly in urban areas


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• Dams control river discharge and sediment delivery to the delta • There is a decline in fluival flooding in the upper delta but tidal flooding still occurs in the

lower delta • Salinity intrusion is a further problem which is affecting agriculture and damaging cropping • 65-70% of the delta can be affected by salt intrusion • Erosion is also widespread in channels and at the coast, including bank erosion which causes a

continuous loss of land • There is also extensive sand mining in the river which is decreasing sediment load • Sea-level rise and climate change are also threatening the delta • Spatial management and zoning is a challenge - for ecology, agriculture and more - how can

areas be maintained? • Floodplain sedimentation is measured and modelled to understand how it is changing in the

delta • Multibeam data is also collected but data so far is too poor to understand sediment trapping • A systems dynamic model is also being developed by several universities to understand how

land use and sediment management can be combined

Figure 5: Future loss of sediment in the Mekong delta


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Delta case studies Ems-Dollard – Dr. Jasper Leuven (RHDHV/WUR)

• The Ems-Dollard is located in the north of the Netherlands, at the border with Germany, and has lots of ports

• The system is characterised by high turbidity caused by ships, which results in many ecological disturbances

• The pilot project currently being implemented in the Ems-Dollard system focuses on reducing mud concentrations in the water and enhance the ecological quality of the region, with the goal of growing with sea-level rise

• Why do marshes not naturally develop? • The Meerjarenprogramma Infrastructuur, Ruimte & Transport (MIRT) gives a potential solution

for the problems in the estuary by consulting different stakeholders and choosing the best solution

• Scenarios with similar budgets: o Brushwood groynes using natural shapes creating low energetic conditions o Lagoon excavation by partly removing salt marshes o Rejuvenating marshes

• Important is judging potential: What criteria do you use? How do you do that?

Q&A and discussion Piet: How does it decrease turbidity? Groynes: do you actually see salt marsh development, or erosion? Why is there no salt marsh development? In the other two scenarios, how much sediment would you be able to extract from the system? How much sedimentation takes place? Does a measure fit the system? Kim: Does this small area, very local, affect the whole system? Is it measurable? If it is, is the effect positive? Does it have the right effect? Joris: Why are the groynes on the western side? Answer: Sedimentation needs a certain elevation. Lowering the south has little effect, since there is already salt marsh and removing the front does not cause more sedimentation. In the west, there is no salt marsh yet. Piet: A lot of intertidal area has been lost due to reclaiming of land; the solution is sea side based. Jasper: A smoother connection is attempting to be made, instead of a sharp transition from the dike to the sea. How do we deal with sea-level rise? Piet: How do you judge the effectiveness of each individual project instead of all projects together? The estuary is of course also part of a larger system: the Wadden Sea. Removal of mud in the Wadden Sea might have effect on this estuary. Answer Jasper: The accumulated effect is measured. Stepwise selection of alternatives, ordered in importance. They contain evaluated criteria. Less important criteria were not included in this stepwise collection, but they were evaluated. Their preferred solution is the brushwood groynes. The spatial distribution was chosen to prevent creation of channels between the groynes.


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Rhine – Dr. Eveline van der Deijl (Deltares)

• History of the Rhine: o In the 10th century, the first water works were implemented o The first dike rings, polders and canals were constructed in 1300 o After 1460, bends of the rivers were cut off o Since then there has been an increase in the construction of flood

control infrastructures and other water management strategies in the Netherlands, including groynes, weirs, dams, bed protection, and dredging

• This activity has had unwanted and unsustainable effects: sediment input has been decreasing. How can we ensure a more sustainable future?

• The Room for the River program included two main goals: o Flood attenuation o Making rivers more ‘attractive’

• However, the Room for the River program is now finished, so what’s next? • Basis Riverbodem Ligging: lower and upper limits are identified for all river functions, but they

can conflict • New measures pilot project:

o Longitudinal training wall makes flow blockage minimal, reduces flood risk, and navigation depth for shipping is increased

o Dredging and innovative sediment re-use solutions: sediment is not dropped far out at sea e.g. an idea is to dump sediment at ebb flows and let nature transport it out

• Eveline’s PhD project focussed on sediment and where it goes in the Biesbosch in the Rhine-Meuse delta, finding that erosion occurs in small channels and inlets close to the channels, but mostly sedimentation is dominant

• Conclusions of the PhD project: o There was no peak discharge o The Biesbosch will not be able to keep up with sea-level rise o Measures taken were very effective to increase sediment trapping

Q&A and discussion Karabil: What is the reason that in the north of the Biesbosch there is a lot of erosion?

Eveline: It’s an inlet from the channel with high flow velocities because the basin suddenly widens. Ruessink: Have you considered measures on the coast of the Netherlands and is that also considered part of the delta? Eveline: Yes. Ruessink adds: The coastal region also has a shortage of sediment especially with SLR in mind. Most sand is added by nourishment because we made the dunes into a large static dike. New strategies include opening up the dike-dune to induce more sand transport. Nazarali: How large is sedimentation compared to dredging activities? Eveline: Channels were made very deep with the idea that they would silt up and they wouldn’t have to come back to dredge. They misjudged because the extra deep channels trap extra sediment. This principle could also be used to trap extra sediment if needed. Dunn: What is the goal in the area? Is it supposed to stay wetland?


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Eveline: Not sure what the goal is. Groundwater lowering in the surrounding has an effect and there is not much dredging going on anymore in the channels. It is important also for the rest of the Netherlands to choose a strategy. There is not much intertidal area due to historic management. Gelsomini: They want the area to keep up with sea level rise. What would be the purpose of this wetland area to society? Eveline: In the Netherlands there is not much space so we do not have the luxury to move around to let land grow. We do have to choose if we want to keep this area. This area is also an important area for nature. Gelsomini: In Belgium they placed sluices in the rivers to be able to keep water levels lower than sea level and also support tidal wetlands. Eveline: There are some small projects like this in the Netherlands but nothing on a large scale that I know of.


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Mississippi – Dr. Chris Esposito (TWIG) and Dr. Brendan Yuill (TWIG) Presentation by Brendan Yuill

• In the Mississippi delta, there’s a lot of land loss due to anthropogenic causes • Louisiana has a 50-year master plan • Currently there are plans for new sediment diversions that are bigger than previous,

freshwater diversions and scoop up water lower in the flow column • There are two main goals:

o Optimize the magnitude of sediment capture § Need to understand the local processes § Understand interplay between hydrograph and sedigraph § Maximise the diversion’s sediment to water ratio by identifying optimal

location and operational schedule o Reduce the negative impacts of fluvial sediment removal from natural sediment

transport regime § Understand the three-dimensional flow fields of the diversion reach –

including how they might change post-construction § How will removal of flow and sediment impact channel evolution in terms of

shoaling and possible head cutting? § How will current river management be affected? (dredging schedules, borrow

areas, anchorages) • Example: Mid-Brataria sediment diversion

o 2100 m3/s capacity o Model results: maps of velocity, near bed discharge into the diversion from the bed fills

the diversion channel. All the bedload gets sucked into the diversion channel, which is useful if that’s your aim.

o SWR used as efficiency parameter. Sediment diverted in proportion with the amount of flow diverted.

• Thus: some areas of the channel experience greater sediment transport, some areas may have more desirable (or extractable) sediment than other areas. Current shifts side to side in the channel.

• Remarks: o Relationship between discharge and sediment transport may change in time and place o Hysteresis effects (diminishing sediment supply through a hydrograph) may be

influenced by location o Local bar influencing the flow and sediment transport, highest transport near the bar

à sand transport right above the bar


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Presentation by Christopher Esposito • Issues with Mississippi delta diversions: damaging to the delta, getting it into the

landscape doing more good • Diversions are only one component of a larger strategy in the larger projects:

sediment pipelines, marsh creation and other structures to get the sediment that is gained from diversion to the right location

• Diversions are engineered: even the natural parts are going to be highly controlled • Use of Sediment Retention Enhancement Devices (SREDs) to optimise effective basin-side

sedimentation of the West Bay sediment diversion o Diversion from the Mississippi was cut, the sediment was not doing much good, the

desired result was not achieved, so SREDs were put into the system o SREDs modify the diversion to increase settlement of the sediment

• Example: MR-09 Delta Wide Crevasses Program o Small cuts in the channels o 40 crevasses over 20 years o Price per acre ranges from $100 to $1000s, several orders of magnitude less than

dredge-based marsh creation o Limited in size and limited target area

• Small holes were made in local levees by local managers à multiple small diversions which carry relatively small amounts of sediments. They do not need a lot of management and are very cheap. They also do a really good job for setting the stage.

• Optimisation of the diversion: o Vegetation controls sediment routing of water and sediment – often we think about

diversions as maximising sediment, but it is really about reducing the impact. Diversion operation plans are only partially intended to deliver sediment. The other design constraint is reducing impacts on marshes, fisheries, navigability, dolphins, flooding on communities, etc.

o Timing during hydrographs (management) o Design and construction concerns:

§ Local government concerns, legal constrictions (e.g. navigability) § Permitted facilities nearby § Fisheries § Property holders: state federal and local properties, with all of them having

different concerns § Flood control and transportation infrastructure § Aspects from other disciplines


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Mekong – Dr. Marc Goichot (WWF) and Dr. Andrew Wyatt (IUCN) Presentation by Andrew Wyatt

• Can we use sediment trapping land-use as a strategic approach to mitigate subsidence and sea-level rise in the Mekong delta?

• Closed land-use systems have to be combined with open systems • In the upstream delta, a suitable strategy would be flood-based agriculture by conserving

water in retention areas • In the coastal delta, different strategy could be used: open shrimp systems • Open shrimp systems include:

o Rice-shrimp systems – this is more effective during the wet reason as sediment trapping is highest

o Mangrove-shrimp systems – compared to rice-shrimp farming, this strategy captures sediment year-round and not just in the wet reason as on rice fields. This also explains a lower level of sediment found in rice ponds.

• Suggested case study site for the land-use sedimentation strategies:

• Can we use sediment trapping as a land-use in the Mekong delta? o Have to replace intensive rice cultivation with shrimp-rice o Have to replace intensive shrimp with mangrove-shrimp – this one is especially

important because subsidence in the coastal area is quite rapid


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Presentation by Marc Goichot • The Mekong river is the 10th largest river by length, 12th by basin area, and has the

third largest delta in the world • One major problem in the Mekong delta is that decision-making is in the hands

of water managers, not sediment managers. Water managers understand and work with water quality, water flows and water quantity; but not the other dimensions of river basins, such as subsidence and erosion due to reduced sediment input.

• The Mekong is a highly fragmented river and one of the rivers in which sediment is a highly important indicator. Important to keep in mind here is that not all sediment is equal. It is essential to make a distinction between different types of sediment when implementing strategies.

• The movement of water and sediment has been altered significantly in the Mekong delta: o There is not much flooding anymore due to embankments, and when floods do occur

there is not much sediment deposition o No natural processes occur in the delta that can counter natural compaction and

subsidence o Studies often point to the effectiveness of mangroves in trapping sediment, but Marc

found no correlation between the width of mangroves and erosion in the Mekong delta. This could be explained by the low sediment flow in the delta: without sediment input, mangroves cannot successfully grow and capture sediment.

• Funding is also a big challenge. Currently there are investors wanting to fund greener projects, but there is a lack of available ready-made projects to invest in. An issue in the delta is trying to move technical ideas into fundable projects.

• Another key issue in the Mekong delta is sand mining on a large scale, causing coastal erosion. We cannot just move people out and make places bankable – we have to find ways to incorporate flooding and the associated positive values into the business model.

Q&A and discussion Annisa – Marc, you mentioned translating technical solutions to fundable projects. How to ensure that projects are comprehensive? Marc – There are many dimensions which makes it difficult. Impacts assessment are overwhelming due to all the dimensions. There are limited public investments. These limited investments should be invested in such a way that a sort of chain reaction is established. The first investments make the second one more feasible, etc. Richard – One of the things that I come back to is what parts do you let the sediment go to? Many places are settled with people in the delta. You are only able to flood agricultural land, which is not necessarily raising vulnerable areas such as cities and villages? Marc – It is important to value sediment and mud. It is not easy to get to the position of sediment in cities. There are some initial ideas on how to build for example industrial areas on stilts, instead or raising dikes. You will have the water flowing below it, and thus also sedimentation. But when the city exists, it will take a very long time for new strategies to emerge. There are no real ready-made solutions for cities.


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Andrew – The status quo to responding to subsidence and flooding in cities is now raising roads. When you raise roads, you need sand as a resource. Residents residing along the roads have to stop raising their floors resulting in subsidence. Unfortunately, that is the status quo, which creates more and more sand mining. This is the way cities are currently (unsustainably) coping.


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Ganges-Brahmaputra – Dr. Bas van Maren (Deltares) and Feroz Islam (UU) Presentation by Bas van Maren

• Tidal river management (TRM) emerged as a bottom-up practice in the eastern Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta

• The eastern Ganges-Brahmaputra Meghna delta (setting the stage): o Low-lying area with many polders o Polders often flood during heavy rainfall events o Waterlogging results from an increasing tidal range and infilling of the river

channels • Polders are designed in such a way that excess rainfall can be drained. However, over time, the

water drainage capacity of the polders decreased because of: o Polder subsidence o Increase in water levels in the drainage channels (called peripheral rivers) o Infilling of peripheral rivers

• A potential solution to the waterlogging problem is TRM, involving: o Controlled inundation of polders o Sedimentation during inundation leads to an increase in land level o Scouring of the peripheral rivers leads to increased drainage capacity and a reduction

of the tidal amplitude in the main river channels • TRM therefore mitigates waterlogging problems • However, is TRM a viable solution on a larger scale? Is there sufficient sediment available for

large-scale TRM operations? What is the impact of TRM on tides? How to upscale? • To answer these questions, a scenario analysis was conducted using a sediment transport

model. The result show that: o Overall, there is sufficient sediment available for upscaling TRM when TRM areas are

distributed over multiple peripheral rivers o Water levels decrease within the inundated area o Sedimentation rates decrease if multiple TRM polders share the same peripheral river,

therefore the duration of a TRM cycle is longer

Presentation by Feroz Islam • This presentation goes into a more specific case study • Overall, TRM implementation in three beels (polders in Bengali) in the eastern

part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta haven been quite successful: o Beel Bhaina:

§ Land elevation increased 1.5-2 meters near the inlet and 0.2 meters at the far end of the beel

§ River depth and width increased § Rice production, livestock and local income increased

o Beel Khuksia: § Land elevation increased 1.5-2 meters near the inlet and 0.5 m at the far end

of the beel § River depth and width increased § Rice production, livestock and local income increased

o Beel Pakhimara: § Still ongoing § Survey indicates the sedimentation is closer to the inlet of the beel


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§ Survey indicates that the depth and width of the river increased § Not yet possible to conclude on rice production, livestock and income

• There are also some challenges associated with the implementation of TRM: o How to improve the spatial uniformity and efficiency of sediment deposition? o Upscaling of TRM is difficult o Future hydro-morphological impacts may change the channels and TRM effectiveness o How to deal with local livelihoods during TRM operations and how to compensate

people? o The involvement of stakeholders in the planning and implementation of TRM and in

post-TRM activities remains difficult • Overall, tide-dominated regions in the delta are the most suitable for TRM application • Primary drivers of TRM effectiveness are the tidal range, sediment concentration in the water

and the size of the beel where TRM is implemented • TRM can also be operated in rotation

Q&A and discussion Victor: Bas, you mentioned that the success rate ‘varies’. What do you mean? It sometimes did not work as expected? Why?

Bas: The success rate can be interpreted as siltation rate. The aim is to heighten the land as fast as possible to return the land as fast as possible. If siltation rates are lower than expected, it takes longer to return or the height of the bed level is not as high as desired. Why sedimentation rates vary is not well-known. Siltation rates are influenced by e.g. sediment supply, sediment properties, but also local drainage networks (canals) so not easy to exactly predict.

Hans: Another important point to consider is applying TRM only during the monsoon season or during the whole year.

John Shaw: The non-uniform sedimentation, if the water inlet and water outlet were in different locations of the polder, could that spread the sedimentation out more? Has that been tried?

Hans: See the slide! This has been tried and yes it leads to more uniform sedimentation.

Hans: Would we need really new designs of the polders to make TRM effective and acceptable? And here we design TRM top-down with our nice models, but what if locals would ‘design’ TRM?

Answer: In Bangladesh, initial TRMs were actually implemented or initiated by the locals. However, it does not mean that locals can do it all by themselves, because they do not have the technical know-how, so they need help from technical people. It is important there is a collaboration between local people and higher organisations, to combine local knowledge of the system with more technical and engineering expertise.

Saffaa: A conclusion we can draw from the presentations is that socio-economic aspects are just as important and sometimes more challenging than the physical aspects. A large part of the population is unwilling to participate in TRM. And for upscaling an additional problem is how to manage TRM-induced migration of people in an already heavily occupied delta.


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Concluding notes on the delta case studies There are several active sedimentation strategies that are implemented at a small scale in various deltas worldwide. These local interventions were explained in detail by the speakers and are summarized above. Debate and discussion about the applicability of these strategies in other deltas followed. Positive and negative aspects of the strategies were compared with both the cost of implementation and the land gain due to the strategy. Many of these strategies have only been recently implemented and ongoing monitoring and data gathering is informing both policy and science to improve the effectiveness of the various strategies.

Multi-criteria analysis Preliminary work - Eline Sieben (UU)

• At a global scale, deltas are dealing with a shortage of sediment • Sedimentation strategies are at a local scale • We want to take small scale case studies and apply them globally • Test their suitability and effectiveness • Which features are important? • We have built a database of the sedimentation strategies we know of globally • This includes various types of data: general, project settings, stakeholders, biophysical

attributes, fluvial changes, results of the strategy • Taking this data we are working towards a multi-criteria analysis tool to test applicability • The tool is for policymakers, scientists and decision makers. • As part of the project we also are building a global levee database (Joey O’Dell) which helps

inform delta sedimentation strategies

Figure 6: Data collected in our multi criteria database


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Figure 7: Overview of the MCA tool

Summary of game Participants were divided into 6 groups, and each group applied an example sedimentation strategy to a global delta. They were asked 8 questions under 8 different topics and asked to give a rating. These ratings were supported by discussion and questions.

Figure 8: Overview of the game


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Group 1a – Tidal river management in the Yangtze

notes

The physical setting of the Yangtze river is quite appropriate for this strategy, because the tidal range is large enough. Compartmentalized application is another benefit.

There will always be stakeholders who value short-term benefits over long-term sustainability

The strategy is expected to offset some land loss, but it will remain limited because the elevation of the delta with respect to mean sea level is low

It is likely that this strategy will benefit agricultural lands, which occupy a large part of the Yangtze delta. Post-TRM lands are more suitable for agriculture than e.g. river diversions.

No further comments The costs are realistic in light of the country’s GDP and the economic development of the region


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Tidal river management is seen as a sustainable solution for the Yangtze delta. The tidal range is sufficient, it creates the requires land-use types and it is affordable.

Strong centralized governments may be very well equipped to implement sedimentation strategies such as TRM, however it may be difficult to have other stakeholders comply


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Group 1b – River diversions in the Yangtze

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The delta is heavily urbanised so space need to be found to implement the strategy

There are areas where sedimentation naturally occurs and these should be enhanced and not new created

Farmers will see agricultural land created

But resettlement will need to occur and land use rights come into play

Lack of riverine sediment supply and lack of silt is the main problem

There will be less land loss but it will not offset at the scale required

The strategy may have an impact depending on the location of implementation

There could be possible issues with pollution if the diversions pass through urban, industrial or agricultural areas

The cost is minimal and if the government wants it, implementation will also be fast

Increasing nature is a priority of the government and this method will do that

However local demand agricultural land which will have to be done through land reclamation


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The strategy does not create enough land to be a long term solution

A diversity of solutions is needed

A variety of land types are required which this does not fulfil

The governance structure is perfectly suited to large scale measures like this

Fast implementation is normal

Educational campaigns are common and easily “sell” the strategy to opposition


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Group 1c – Planting vegetation in the Yangtze

The physical setting was considered as mostly appropriate, but there was debate on whether this was relevant in such an extremely urbanised and cultivated delta

It will fulfil some stakeholder needs as people have an interest in being safe from relative SLR, however as the delta is highly urbanised there may be resistance if measures are too extensive

The area is very cultivated and a lot more than just vegetation planting is needed – the measure will not offset land loss on its own. An important question is also: at what spatial scale should this be implemented?

The group agreed unanimously that there is no severe negative environmental impact from this measure. Sediment will be trapped, ecosystems will improve and with that biodiversity

The cost is mostly realistic if it is implemented where there is space locally. If space needs to be made (e.g. moving of people, removing infrastructure) it might be costly.

This strategy will likely create some of the required land-use type if it can protect and expand agricultural lands – but if marshland is treated as it was in the past, it would not work long-term


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There was not much governance knowledge or knowledge about the Chinese government, but the participants concluded that if the government wants this to happen, they can make it happen

This strategy will be somewhat sustainable and suitable in the long-term, if it is implemented in agricultural areas and there where is space available. However, the measure will likely work better in less urbanised areas.


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Group 2a - Tidal river management in the Nile

This strategy will offset some land loss in the Nile delta, however there is not much sediment in the Nile

Stakeholders may want to have the current situation forever, but that is not realistic. You cannot raise urban areas through TRM which makes it complicated. Agricultural land could be elevated using this strategy.

The tidal range of the Nile delta is likely too small for TRM, and there is also a lack of sediment in the Nile river due to upstream dam construction

Currently, agricultural land dominates the land-use in the Nile delta. However, in the face of population growth, this may change into urban areas which TRM does not benefit.

This strategy will have some environmental impacts. Would be interesting to balance pollution and salinization against wetland creation and nature adapting.

Very divided answers. Some argued that the cost of TRM would be relatively cheap, however it is important to consider maintenance costs and also compensation for people and environmental issues .


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The governance system is seen as somewhat suitable, because a centralized government may be suitable for top-down implementation – but will the people just accept it and contribute to maintenance?

The strategy may not be suitable in the long-term due to a variety of reasons, including: - reduction in sediment delivery - tidal range is too small - loss of river water in reservoirs due to evaporation - how to make space for TRM in a densely developed delta? Where do people have to move if the rest of the country is desert?


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Group 2b – River diversions in the Nile

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Sediment concentration in the Nile river is very low, too much sediment is being held behind dams in the river

Stakeholders may quickly adapt to the river being more dynamic. On the other hand, urban areas and agriculture are concentrated along the Nile river. The rest of the country is desert, so people cannot move.

May be difficult to create new land with this strategy in the Nile delta because of a lack of sediment

Diversions may impact and change protected land areas which would be a negative impact. However, diversions can also reduce soil salinity, which would be a positive impact but is not one of the possible choices.

Mostly realistic compared to the GDP of the country

Debatable, river diversions are often used to restore wetlands. Wetlands are not suitable for e.g. living or agricultural lands .


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Answers were divided due to different perspectives on what sustainability entails, which underlines the importance of interdisciplinarity.

In general, centralised and top-down governments such as Egypt may be better equipped to implement large-scale management strategies – compared to decentralised nations that have to consider different governmental and non-governmental organisations


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Group 2c - Planting vegetation in the Nile

It is somewhat appropriate, however the strategy can’t be applied to the entire system because there is simply not enough sediment in the river. Only some key spots may have sufficient sediment. Possible it can be combined with agriculture.

Some stakeholders will benefit from the strategy, however it is difficult to implement in densely populated areas because there are too many different interests

It will offset some land loss, however due to upstream dam construction the river concentration in the Nile is low – there is not much sediment to build land with

Overall, the environmental impact should be low. It depends on the type of vegetation used, local vegetation should cause minor environmental issues but foreign vegetation may be invasive and kill other native species.

The costs are realistic although labour and maintenance costs may very per country

The type of land-use required depends on the location in the delta, so it’s difficult to answer this question. However it will likely create some of the required land-use type e.g. for agriculture.


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The strategy will likely not be sustainable enough in the long term, but combined with other strategies it may be more effective

In the Nile, there may be different groups involved which makes it complicated. Due to hierarchy, it may be difficult to get to locals.


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Concluding notes on the MCA tool Participants rated the strategies after hearing the pitches from the various groups.

Rate the strategies

Relative importance of the criteria


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Key limitations or barriers:


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Future research directions


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Jana Cox Mandy Paauw December 4th 2020

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