Jan Strack San Diego Gas and Electric TEPPC Overview TEPPC Review Task Force January 11, 2016 Salt Lake City, UT.

Jan StrackSan Diego Gas and Electric

TEPPC Overview TEPPC Review Task Force

January 11, 2016 Salt Lake City, UT

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Organizational ChartWECC

Western Electricity Coordinating Council

PCCPlanning Coordination

Committee

TSSTechnical Studies

Subcommittee

Others …

Others …

TEPPCTransmission Expansion

Planning Policy Committee

TAS Technical Advisory

Subcommittee

SWG Study Work Group

DWG Data Work Group

MWG Model Work Group

SPSG Scenario Planning Steering

Group

EDWG Environmental Data Work

Group

RPCG Regional Planning

Coordination Group

HMTF Hydro Modeling Task Force

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TEPPCTransmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee

• Conduct and facilitate economic transmission planning– Develop and maintain public database for economic grid simulations and related

analyses– Develop and implement inter-regional transmission expansion planning

processes• Coordinate with Planning Coordination Committee (PCC)• Other WECC Committees• Regional Planning Groups (RPGs)• Other stakeholders

– Guide and improve economic and operational analyses and modeling• Conduct related transmission utilization studies• Conduct related transmission expansion studies

– Prepare inter-regional transmission planning assessments• Accept study requests on an annual basis• Approve an annual study program

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Large Scale Grid Planning• Load/Resource Balance

– Load forecasts (including energy efficiency and behind-the-load meter generation)– Dependable capacity from existing and planned generation– Minimum planning reserve margins

• Generation Production Costs– fuel and variable O&M costs– carbon costs– opportunity costs (e.g., costs of curtailing renewable output)

• Capital Costs– Policy-driven generation and transmission additions

• Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)• Clean Power Plan 111(d) requirements• Greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets

– Commercially-driven generation and transmission additions • Utility and merchant developer plans • Generic additions

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TEPPC Work Products

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TEPPC’s Study Tools• Economic Grid Simulation Model – ABB’s GridView

– 10-year: “Snapshot” AC data describing electric system topography: transmission lines, substations, generators, loads (converted for use in a DC solution model)

– Snapshot data expanded to cover 8760 hours:• Loads• Run-of-river hydro output, other must-take generation• Wind and solar output profiles

– Economic data: • fuel prices, • heat rates for thermal units• carbon costs• opportunity costs (e.g., curtailment costs for renewable resources)• institutional friction between balancing authorities

– For each hour, dispatch generation to minimize variable costs subject to system constraints: • Load-resource balance• Path ratings and transmission facility ratings• Generator capabilities (maximum and minimum output levels, start-up/shut-down times, ramp

rates)

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TEPPC’s Study Tools (cont.)• Transmission Capital Cost Calculator

– Generic cost estimates for transmission elements– Accounts for general terrain differences, environmental mitigation costs

• Generation Capital Cost Calculator– Generic estimates for different generation technologies– Accounts for projected technology improvements (“learning curves”)

• Long Term Planning Tool- LTPT– Generation and transmission expansion model– Accounts for environmental constraints when identifying new transmission– Very simplified production cost assessment– Used for long-term assessments (20 year horizon)

• Environmental Data Viewer – DataViewer– Combines environmental data layers using a visual format with a granularity of around

0.5 x 0.5 km– Accounts for terrain, water features, population centers, land use, transmission corridors– Identifies development exclusion areas, protected species locations – Assigns one of four environmental risk classifications to each cell

Information Flow & Review Process

TEPPC CharterGoal : ConsensusIf needed : Member voting

SPSGCharterGoal : ConsensusIf needed : Advisory voting

TASCharterGoal : Consensus• “Issue voting” for all present• “Process voting” by members

DWGGoal : Consensus

MWGGoal : Consensus

SWGGoal : Consensus

EDWGCharterGoal : ConsensusIf needed : Advisory voting

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SPSGScenario Planning Steering Group

• Provides strategic guidance to TEPPC on:– Emerging policy, regulatory, environmental, industry and social trends

relevant to transmission expansion– Future scenarios to be modeled in studies– Modeling tools and datasets to be used– Key assumptions to be used in creating and reviewing the scenarios– Metrics to be used in modeling future scenarios

• Has defined four possible scenarios for long-term evolution of the western electric system

• Long Term Planning Tool (LTPT) used to simulate possible outcomes for each scenario

• Monitors “early indicators” on an on-going basis to assess likelihood of each scenario and to adjust scenarios

• Provides direction to EDWG

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SPSG and 20-Year Studies • Uses Long Term Planning Tool (LTPT) for 20-year

generation and transmission expansion studies• Builds a 20 year LTPT “Reference Case” by extrapolating

data from the 10 year GridView “Common Case” • LTPT-based studies intended to illustrate impacts of key

issues under different credible futures (four scenarios):– “Economic recovery”– “Clean energy”– “Short term consumer cost focus”– “Long term societal cost focus”

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EDWGEnvironmental Data Work Group

• Provides a forum for engaging stakeholders to collect and review environmental data with relevance to generation and transmission expansion planning

• Develop methodologies for applying environmental and cultural resource data to transmission planning (e.g., identify excluded or high risk land areas for infrastructure development) – Land classification system that identifies high to low-risk areas (4

risk categories) – Provides the opportunity to avoid or mitigate environmental

and/or cultural risks at the planning level • Regional environmental mitigation cost study for recently

built transmission lines

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RPCGRegional Planning Coordination Group

• The RPCG is made up of a member from each TEPPC-recognized Regional Planning Group.– Alberta Electric System Operator ( AESO)– British Columbia Coordinated Planning Group (BCCPG) – California Independent System Operator (CAISO –FERC Planning Region)– California Transmission Planning Group (CTPG)– ColumbiaGrid (FERC Planning Region)– Northern Tier Transmission Group (NTTG - FERC Planning Region)– WestConnect (FERC Planning Region)

• Purpose of group is to coordinate planning activities between and among the Regional Planning Groups and TEPPC.

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TASTechnical Advisory Subcommittee

• Advises TEPPC in technical matters• Undertakes studies a the direction of TEPPC related to:

– Economic expansion of the Bulk-Power System– Policy-driven expansion of the Bulk-Power System

• Recommends technical details regarding TEPPC’s– Databases and their management (for both economic grid simulation and capital expansion

studies)– Proposed annual study program– Preparation of reports describing assumptions, analysis, results and recommendations

• Conducts economic grid simulation modeling• Conducts capital expansion studies• Evaluate study results to facilitate economic expansion of the Western interconnection• Determines software or modeling requirements and evaluates modifications to existing

WECC computer programs related to transmission expansion planning• Evaluate and explore new developments and techniques of interest to WECC

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DWGData Work Group

• With stakeholder input, develops and adjusts data necessary to execute TEPPC’s annual study program. For example:– Annual and monthly forecast peak and energy by region– Fuel prices by region– Update thermal unit heat rates– Monthly hydro production (low, average and high hydro years)– Incremental energy efficiency by region– Behind-the-load meter generation by region– Hourly energy shapes by location (load, hydro, wind, solar)– “Gap resources” to meet minimum planning reserves in each region– Resource/demand-side additions to satisfy Local Capacity Requirements

• Receives AC “snapshot” power flow case from Technical Studies Subcommittee (TSS )of the Planning Coordination Committee (PCC)– Converts AC “snapshot” power flow case into a DC model compatible with economic

grid simulation model (which employs a DC solution algorithm)

Data Work Group Tasks

• With significant stakeholder support, the DWG is developing “Round Trip” capability– Goal is an efficient method to:

(i) convert an AC “snapshot” power flow case into the system topography for an 8760 hour DC grid simulation model, and (ii) extract any hour from the DC grid simulation model and convert that hour into an AC “snapshot” power flow case

– Will facilitate economic studies of reliability-based transmission upgrades

– Will facilitate detailed reliability studies of expected system conditions

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MWGModel Work Group

• Recommends modeling approaches and refinements to capture important aspects of electric system operation. For example:– Implementation of operating reserve sharing load areas– Defining trading hubs– Developing inter-regional hurdle rates to capture institutional fraction

between areas– Modeling California’s AB32 taxes on carbon-based generation used

to serve California loads• Evaluates and proposes modeling improvements for the TEPPC

study programs, for example, pumped hydro look ahead logic, battery dispatch, Monte Carlo, changes to internal data documentation, speed of computation

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HMTF Hydro Modeling Task Force

• Reports to MWG• Determines how to accurately model and account

for hydroelectric resources in TEPPC study cases.• Examples of projects of the HMTF– Assemble high, low, and medium hydro condition data

sets– Pumped Storage Analysis Tool– Historic Hydro Dispatch Dashboard Tool

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SWGStudies Work Group

• Screens study requests submitted in annual study request window• Prioritizes study requests and submits priority recommendations to

TAS (for subsequent approval by TEPPC)• Processes requestor appeals of study priorities adopted by TEPPC• Responsible for establishing the assumptions used in each of the

study cases for TEPPC’s annual study program• Manages the completion of the study cases approved in TEPPC’s

annual study program• Example Study Cases

– Coal Retirement Study– Retire IPP Coal Plant and add 1200 MW combined cycle plant at IPP)– CAES, Zephyr and 12,000 gWh of wind in Eastern Wyoming– High PV saturation above California’s RPS standard

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SWG Manages TEPPC’s Study Program

Jan Feb-Mar April - Dec

Oct-Dec

Open Season for Study Requests

Draft Study Program Development

Analysis and Reporting

Transmission Report Development