Jan 29/06 10:00amGeog 152b1 Disasters (Quarantelli, in Cutter (1994): Ch 2) Disasters (Quarantelli, in Cutter (1994): Ch 2 ) short history of disaster.

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 1

DisastersDisasters((Quarantelli, in Cutter (1994): Ch 2Quarantelli, in Cutter (1994): Ch 2 ))

• short history of disaster research• defining disasters• disasters worldwide• disaster trends• explaining disaster trends• two schools of thought on

disaster trends

Geography 106bGeography 106bHazardsHazards

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 2

Short History of Disaster Research

• funded by military in USA• military interested: disaster recovery,

specifically psychological stress - individuals and social organization under stress

• emphasis on large-scale, sudden, rare “civilian” disasters – akin to warfare bombing

• emphasis on how to establish command and control structures post-disaster

• little on emergency preparedness

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 3

Defining DisastersDefining Disasters

Question:• Why do you suppose the definition of

a “disaster” is so critical that an entire book has been devoted to the topic? (Quarantelli, E.(1998) What is a Disaster?)

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 4

Defining DisastersDefining Disasters

Database Problems• disasters co-occur e.g., cyclones and

floods; landslides and earthquakes• mortality difficult to count e.g.,

primary effect vs secondary effects (famine, epidemics in refugee camps)

• lack of census taking generally in LDCs

• what gets counted? – thresholds reasonable?

Implication• worst case e.g., up to twofold

difference in reporting for same area same time period (Mitchell, 1989)

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 5

What Counts?

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 6

CRED and EM-DAT

• major international disaster data centre

• more inclusive CRED event-threshold criteria– 10 or more deaths per event– at least 100 persons affected– drought or famine – 2000 persons

affected– OR government disaster declaration– OR plea for international assistance

• industrial(technological) disasters always use more inclusive since impacts typically much lower – 5 or more deaths per event

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

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Defining DisastersDefining Disasters

Absolute vs Relative Statistics• data often presented in absolute terms

– numbers dead, $billions lost• impact of losses felt differently one

place to next• e.g., 10 fishers lost in remote village

of 200 vs 10 factory workers in city of 200,000

• place disasters in community/regional context

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 8

Media and Disasters

media concentration on• human interest• visual impact• events close to home• prioritized according to “western

perspective”

- Adams (1986) death of one Westerner =

3 East Europeans

9 Latin Americans

11 Middle Easterners

12 Asians

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 9

Type of Disaster and Type of Impact

• impacts vary by disaster type• e.g., earthquakes tend to include

more deaths• e.g., floods = more affected -

homelessness

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 10

Exercise:Identifying Disasters

• Break into groups of four and discuss:

• Which of the following should qualify as a “disaster”– 1998 East Canada ice storm

– Walkerton tainted water

– 2003 Canada/US blackout

– Love Canal toxic waste

– Three Mile Island nuclear power plant

• if you do not know details, speculate

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 11

Disasters Increasing?

• Is the number of disasters increasing?

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 12

Disasters Increasing?

• yes• not just improvement in reporting• improvement in reporting likely

overestimate the magnitude of increase

• e.g., 80s & 90s each four times more events than 50s

• rank order of disaster frequency relatively stable

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 13

DisasterEvent Thresholds “Natural” vs “Industrial”

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 14

Disaster DataBeware High Magnitude Events

• single high impact events can overwhelm trend data (e.g., Bangladesh cyclone; Tangshan earthquake)

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Disasters Over Time

Go see up-to-date trend data from EM-DAT here: EMDAT - The International Emergency Disasters Database

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Rank Order of Disaster Incidence

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 17

LDCs Greatest Impacts

• whether measured in absolute terms (e.g., deaths) or relative terms (e.g, deaths per 100,000) – LDCs do worse

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 18

LDCs Greatest ImpactsAbsolute Terms

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 19

LDCs Greatest ImpactsAbsolute Terms

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 20

LDCs Greatest ImpactsRelative Terms

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 21

LDCs Greatest ImpactsRelative Terms

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 22

Disaster Impact Trends

• most impacts have increased over time– property damage– persons affected– deaths (adjust for major epidemics)

• but not in equal proportions– deaths increased twofold increase

– economic damages fourfold increase

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 23

Disaster Impact Trends

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 24

Disaster Impact TrendsIncreases in Economic Losses

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 25

Disaster Impact Trends

• in many of the MDCs inverse relationship between economic losses and fatalities from disasters over time

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 26

Explanation of Growing Impacts

Questions• What explains the patterns of

increasing disaster impacts?• What explains the differences between

MDCs and LDCs?• Describe a scenario of impacts in an

LCD from a natural disaster.

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Explanation of Growing Impacts

Scenario:• Indian farmer, farms land on fertile

coastal plain• subsistence agriculture – e.g. root

crops• cyclone hits and devastates crop due to

flooding• remainder of year, engages in

environmentally threatening wood-cutting

• accepts aid, but encouraged to grow cash crop – e.g., spices – by aid donor

• crop/way of life changes, but not vulnerability (which may have actually increased due to wood cutting)

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 28

Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts

population growth• 6.4 billion, growing steeply• 90% growth in developing world• safe drinking water, food shelter low

even in non-disaster times• pressure large families still

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land pressure• approx. 1 billion live on severely degraded

land• poverty/unequal access to arable land =

unsustainable farming practices• soil erosion, deforestation, over-cultivation• e.g., clearing of coastal mangrove forests

for plantation monoculture (fish farming)• monoculture – loss of biodiversity (natural

protection against hazards)

Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts

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Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts

urbanization• globalization = rural → urban flight• squatter settlements (in LDCs)

growing faster than LDCs

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 31

Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts

inequality• gap between rich and poor growing!• 20% of world population controls

approx. 80% of wealth

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 32

Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts

climate change• flooding and coastal areas• potential increased disease• felt most in areas already under stress

i.e. (LDC’s)

political change• less government involvement• more privatization (free-market ideals)• less development aid (pre-Tsunami)

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 33

Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts

economic growth and technological innovation

• accumulation of wealth in MDCs especially = more at risk

• growth in technological “threat”, e.g., about 700 new chemicals produced annually

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 34

Explanations for Growing Disaster Impacts

social expectations (pressure)• people expect technology to work

irrespective of, e.g., weather conditions

• e.g., fly in severe weather

global interdependence• LDCs incorporated, but produce

mainly primary commodities• primary commodity prices dropped• LDC high foreign debt

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 35

END LECTURE

Jan 29/06 10:00am Geog 152b 36

Disaster Paradigms in Detail

What distinguishes the following two broad ways of looking at (i.e., paradigms) disasters:

• Behavioural/Ecological• Structural/Critical