Jun 13, 2022 Jun 13, 2022 1 The Macro-Stability of Swiss The Macro-Stability of Swiss WIR-Bank Spending: WIR-Bank Spending: Balance versus Velocity Balance versus Velocity Effects Effects International Conference on Community and International Conference on Community and Complementary Currencies, Univ. Lyon, Feb. 17, 2011 Complementary Currencies, Univ. Lyon, Feb. 17, 2011 James Stodder, (Ph.D., Economics, Yale 1990) Lally School of Management & Technology Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute at Hartford Hartford, Connecticut, USA
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James Stodder, (Ph.D., Economics, Yale 1990) Lally School of Management & Technology
The Macro-Stability of Swiss WIR-Bank Spending: Balance versus Velocity Effects International Conference on Community and Complementary Currencies, Univ. Lyon, Feb. 17, 2011. James Stodder, (Ph.D., Economics, Yale 1990) Lally School of Management & Technology - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 11
The Macro-Stability of Swiss WIR-The Macro-Stability of Swiss WIR-Bank Spending: Bank Spending:
Balance versus Velocity EffectsBalance versus Velocity Effects
International Conference on Community and International Conference on Community and Complementary Currencies, Univ. Lyon, Feb. 17, 2011Complementary Currencies, Univ. Lyon, Feb. 17, 2011
James Stodder, (Ph.D., Economics, Yale 1990)Lally School of Management & Technology
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute at HartfordHartford, Connecticut, USA
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 22
I will try to show:I will try to show:1.1. A WIR-type system – based on electronic A WIR-type system – based on electronic
credits – can be credits – can be self-adjustingself-adjusting..
2.2. These self-adjusting credits are These self-adjusting credits are counter-counter-cyclicalcyclical for for SMEsSMEs & & Micro-Finance ClientsMicro-Finance Clients..
3.3. Larger Companies use WIR Larger Companies use WIR lessless but but more more counter-cyclicallycounter-cyclically. Their use of WIR is . Their use of WIR is more more highly leveragedhighly leveraged. .
4.4. Counter-cyclical credits can be Counter-cyclical credits can be good anti-good anti-povertypoverty policy. policy.
5.5. Self-adjusting, counter-cyclical credits can Self-adjusting, counter-cyclical credits can also be also be non-inflationarynon-inflationary..
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 33
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 44
Swiss WIR-Bank, 75 Years OldSwiss WIR-Bank, 75 Years Old Founded during Great Depression, in Founded during Great Depression, in 19341934, ,
around ideas of German-Argentine businessman: around ideas of German-Argentine businessman:
Since 1955, Since 1955, Small-to-MediumSmall-to-Medium Businesses Businesses only. only.
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 55
In 2008, WIR-Bank had In 2008, WIR-Bank had 70,200 Participants70,200 Participants
Turnover Turnover 1.6 Billion SFr 1.6 Billion SFr ($1.5 b. US)($1.5 b. US)
WIR clients maintain two accounts, one in WIR clients maintain two accounts, one in Swiss Francs Swiss Francs (SFr), the other in (SFr), the other in WIRWIR..
WIR accounts can be used to clear (in WIR) WIR accounts can be used to clear (in WIR) trades only trades only with other WIR clientswith other WIR clients..
Since 1973, Since 1973, WIR credits cannot be tradedWIR credits cannot be traded for SFr (although this still happens)for SFr (although this still happens)
DistributionDistribution of WIR Client-Firms of WIR Client-Firms
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 66
Number Number Portion (1,000 SFr) (1,000 SFr) (Swiss Fr.) Turn/Balance =
Industry Swiss WIR WIR/Swiss Turnover Balance Av. Bal. Velocity
RETAIL, of which 62,380 14,275 22.9% 345,757 127,100 8,904 2.72
(1) Why are Centralized (1) Why are Centralized Electronic Credits Electronic Credits
Self-AdjustingSelf-Adjusting??
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 77
- because they are - because they are created by trade itselfcreated by trade itself
WIR-Credit is WIR-Credit is Self-AdjustingSelf-Adjusting
If I agree to let you baby-sit for me, then my If I agree to let you baby-sit for me, then my account is debited, and your account is credited, account is debited, and your account is credited, by the same amount.by the same amount.
There is There is no “monetary base” no “monetary base” or “high powered or “high powered
money” (reserves within the central bank), or money” (reserves within the central bank), or “bank money multiplier.”“bank money multiplier.”
Bank balances are Bank balances are self-adjustingself-adjusting, growing or , growing or contracting in direct proportion to trade.contracting in direct proportion to trade.
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 88
(2) This Self-Adjusting (2) This Self-Adjusting Credit is Credit is Counter-CyclicalCounter-Cyclical
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 99
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 1010
Long-term Correlation with Unemployment Long-term Correlation with Unemployment
Do changes in GDP lead to changes in WIR?Do changes in GDP lead to changes in WIR?
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 1111Maybe.Maybe.
Do changes in UE lead to changes in WIR?Do changes in UE lead to changes in WIR?
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 1212Not Obvious to the “Naked Eye”!Not Obvious to the “Naked Eye”!
Modern Macroeconomic Modern Macroeconomic Time Series EconometricsTime Series Econometrics
““Error Correction Models” bring Error Correction Models” bring together together long-term stability long-term stability and and short-short-term deviations term deviations
We can see if short-term deviations in We can see if short-term deviations in one series lead to later deviations in a one series lead to later deviations in a second series. Thereby, we can even second series. Thereby, we can even show show direction of causalitydirection of causality..
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Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 1414
Overall, Counter-CyclicalOverall, Counter-Cyclical link is link is strongstrong: : GDPGDP (-)(-) => => WIR-Turnover WIR-Turnover (+)(+)
1952-2008 1953-2008D(LrGDP(-1)) -0.9444
[-2.760]******
D(LrGDP_MA2(-1)) -1.7499
[-3.176]******
Adjusted R2 0.836 0.794t-stats in [ ]t-stats in [ ]: ***: ***: p < 0.01, : p < 0.01, **** : p < 0.05 : p < 0.05
(2a) Why is Counter-Cyclical Credit (2a) Why is Counter-Cyclical Credit so Important to so Important to
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) andand to Micro-Finance Clients? to Micro-Finance Clients?
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 1515
- because they are so credit - because they are so credit constrained in downturns.constrained in downturns.
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 1616
Employees and OwnersEmployees and Owners in in Small to Medium FirmsSmall to Medium Firms
can be shown to have:can be shown to have:
• Higher Risk of Layoffs & Bankruptcy• Less Access to Bank Credit
WINTER-EBMER & ZWEIMÜLLER “Firm Size Wage Differentials in Switzerland,” American Economic Review (1999) TERRA, Maria Christina “Credit constraints in Brazilian firms,” Revista Brasilera de Economia (2003)
GrowthGrowth Latin Amer. Microfinance Latin Amer. Microfinance DownDown
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 1717
CRECIMIENTO IMFs ELF (%)
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
P rom edio C.A . 42.97% 48.85% 26.34% -6.98%
P rom . IM Fs E LF 41.80% 40.30% 25.70% 13.80%
Dic -07 Jun-08 Dic -08 Jun-09
Sergio Navajas – IDB (Nov. 2009)
ProfitsProfits Latin Amer. Microfinance Latin Amer. Microfinance DownDown
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 1818
ROE IMFs ELF (%)
-5 .00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
P rom . C.A . 19.23% 17.59% 16.50% 14.12% -2.39%
P rom . IM Fs E LF 22.40% 19.30% 20.70% 15.20% 8.40%
Jun-07 Dic -07 Jun-08 Dic -08 Jun-09
Sergio Navajas – IDB (Nov. 2009)
DefaultsDefaults Latin Latin Amer. Microfinance Amer. Microfinance UpUp
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 1919
PAR > 30 IMFs ELF (%)
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Prom . C .A. 4.50% 3.47% 4.29% 4.99% 9.63%
Prom . IMFs ELF 3.30% 2.80% 4.30% 3.70% 5.00%
Jun-07 D ic -07 Jun-08 D ic -08 Jun-09
Sergio Navajas – IDB (Nov. 2009)
(3) Why do Larger Firms use (3) Why do Larger Firms use WIR more Counter-Cyclically?WIR more Counter-Cyclically?
Because it helps them to hold onto Because it helps them to hold onto SME customers and suppliers in SME customers and suppliers in
tough times.tough times.
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 2020
Is Is ↑↑ TurnoverTurnover in a Recession in a Recession from from ↑↑ MoneyMoney,, ↑ ↑ VelocityVelocity, or Both?, or Both?
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 2121
The “Quantity of Money" Equation:
‘ Turnover ’ = M * V = P * Q
where M = Money (Balances) V = Velocity P = Price Level Q = Goods & Services Purchased
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 2222
Non-Registered Firms Non-Registered Firms may be may be More Counter-Cyclical More Counter-Cyclical In their WIR activity: In their WIR activity:
3. Non-Reg. show 3. Non-Reg. show More Counter-Cyclical BalanceMore Counter-Cyclical Balance
SMEs are more subject to SMEs are more subject to CreditCredit Risk Risk
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 3030
Consider Business to Business (B2B) Trade Credits, on terms like “2% 10, net 30.”
Such Trade Credits, like B2B CCs, are:
• A primary form of credit for SMEs in US• Used in a highly counter-cyclical way
Nilsen, J., “Trade credit and the bank lending channel,”
Journal of Money Credit and Banking (2002)
(4) Why are (4) Why are more counter-cyclical more counter-cyclical credit systems credit systems more useful more useful
to the poor to the poor – and vice versa– and vice versa??
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-Because the poor Because the poor spend morespend more, , and more of their spending and more of their spending stays within the communitystays within the community..
Wednesday, April 19, 2023Wednesday, April 19, 2023 3232
Y = C + I + G + X – M = a + bY + I + G + X – mY => ∆Y/∆G = 1/(1- b + m)
Where b = ‘Marginal Propensity to Consume’ and m = ‘Marginal Propensity to Import’
The The Keynesian ‘MultiplierKeynesian ‘Multiplier’ is larger’ is larger
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 3333
for expenditures by for expenditures by poorpoor, who:, who: * spend* spend greater % of their own greater % of their own income (=> income (=> larger blarger b)), and, and
* * maymay spend greater % within spend greater % within own communityown community (=> (=> smaller msmaller m))..
Wednesday, April 19, 2023Wednesday, April 19, 2023 3434
∆Y/∆G = 1/(1- b↑ + m↓) b = ‘Marginal Propensity to Consume’
and m = ‘Marginal Propensity to Import’
Effect is to increase MultiplierEffect is to increase Multiplier
(5) Why are Self-Adjusting, (5) Why are Self-Adjusting, Counter-Cyclical Credits are Counter-Cyclical Credits are
Non-InflationaryNon-Inflationary??
- - Because they are Because they are moremore counter-cyclical counter-cyclicalthan Ordinary Money.than Ordinary Money.
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 3535
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 3636
US Macro-Stability: Better since WWII, US Macro-Stability: Better since WWII, ((But Room for Improvement!)But Room for Improvement!)
Source: http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
45% 55%
66%34%
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 3737
%∆ Money Turnover [ %∆ Money Turnover [ = %∆ (= %∆ (MMoney x oney x VVelocity) elocity) ] ] is Too is Too ProPro-Cyclical-Cyclical
% ∆ (M x V)
% ∆ V
% ∆M
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 3838
(5) The Question of Inflation(5) The Question of Inflation To fight inflation, Central Banks are forced to To fight inflation, Central Banks are forced to
tighten money supply, even if it leads to a tighten money supply, even if it leads to a recessionrecession..
But a more But a more ‘Micro’ Monetary Policy‘Micro’ Monetary Policy can reach can reach sectors sectors unreached unreached by traditional monetary by traditional monetary expansion – expansion – without putting upward pressure without putting upward pressure on priceson prices..
Making up for lost purchasing power is not Making up for lost purchasing power is not inflationaryinflationary, but , but anti-deflationary. anti-deflationary.
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 3939
As the internet allows Marketers to go from As the internet allows Marketers to go from BroadcastingBroadcasting to to ‘Point-Casting’‘Point-Casting’
So WIR system allows So WIR system allows Monetary AuthorityMonetary Authority to to go from go from Macro-Macro- to to Micro-CreditMicro-Credit. .
Expended WIR credits don’t go mostly to those who Expended WIR credits don’t go mostly to those who already havealready have much, but those who much, but those who have nonehave none..
This is of course fairer (can gain political support). This is of course fairer (can gain political support).
In addition, it should be In addition, it should be anti-deflationary.anti-deflationary.
Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023 4040
For previous paper, go to:For previous paper, go to:ewp.rpi.edu/hartford/~stoddj