James Samuel National Facilitator Transition Towns NZ Aotearoa www.transitiontowns.org.nz Peak oil, climate change and transition towns
Jan 01, 2016
James Samuel
National Facilitator
Transition Towns NZ Aotearoa
www.transitiontowns.org.nz
Peak oil, climate change
and transition towns
Agenda
Peak Oil and its effects
Climate Change (brief)
Responses at different levels
– global, national, local, personal
PO + CC ≠ “business as usual”
What is a transition town
Examples and achievements so far
Q&A discussion
Peak Oil – fields, regions, world we’ll never “run out” of oil
we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil
oil underpins
– industrial development
– agriculture
– economics
– population
about ½ way through it…
it’s going to decline
Peak Oil – discoveryBefore you extract it, you have to find it
Peak Oil – official numbers EIA - EIA - Energy Information Administration
IEA - International Energy Agency
Peak Oil – what’s it like? Terminal decline
Demand destruction
Examples:
– 1990s: North Korea
– 1990s: Cuba
– 2000: UK fuel crisis
– Now: Poor countries
Peak Oil – happening now
(if you’re poor) Asia
– Nepal
– Pakistan
– Bangladesh
– Sri Lanka
– Philippines
– China
– India
– Vietnam
Africa
– Uganda
– Zimbabwe
– Ghana
– Nigeria
– Senegal
– Kenya
– Gambia
– Philippines
Americas
– Argentina
– Nicaragua
– Chile
– Costa Rica
– Dominican Republic
Middle East
– Iraq
– Iran
Climate Change
the end of the debate
Warming of the climate Warming of the climate
system is unequivocalsystem is unequivocal
Most of the observed Most of the observed
increase in globally increase in globally
averaged temp's since averaged temp's since
the mid-20th century is the mid-20th century is
very likely (confidence very likely (confidence
level >90%) due to the level >90%) due to the
observed increase in observed increase in
human greenhouse human greenhouse
gas concentrationsgas concentrations
The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:
Upsala Glacier, ArgentinaUpsala Glacier, Argentina
Climate Change
weather extremes
Fossil Fuels, Carbon,
and Economic Growth
What can be done?
Global
– Oil Depletion Protocol
– Contraction and Convergence
– Kyoto
National
– TEQs (energy rationing)
Community
– Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural
Personal
– “The work that reconnects”
– Lessons from addiction counselling
Can we respond?
Going up the energy slope, we used– ingenuity
– creativity
– adaptability
– cooperation
Going back down…– if we’re early enough
– if we’re cooperative
– the future could be a
whole lot better…
What’s stopping us? Myths of today
– Technology will solve all our problems
– There is no alternative
– Civilisation is the pinnacle of human achievement
– Living standards are rising
– New, better, faster, shinier ____ are just around the corner
– Humans are selfish and greedy by nature
– The market will solve it
If our water comes from a tap,
and our food comes from a supermarket
– We will defend the systems which sustain us
Where are we going?
Indu
stri
al A
scen
t
• - Energy & Resource Use- Energy & Resource Use
• - Population
• - Pollution - Pollution
Peak Energy?
Techno-Fantasy
Green-Tech Green-Tech StabilityStability
Earth
stewardshipPost Mad Max Collapse
Great Grand ChildrenAgriculture
10.000yrs BP
Industrial
Revolution
Baby Boom
Pre-industrial
culture
Historical Time Future Time
Creative D
escent
(Perm
aculture)
Who’s doing creative, orderly
energy descent?
43 Towns at
last count
How are they organising? Transition Model Understanding:
PO + CC = The end of “business as usual” Adaptability, Creativity NOW
7 Buts 12 Steps Transition Network
Peak Oil & Climate Change Climate Change mitigations must:
reduce emissions (reduce oil usage)
Peak Oil mitigations must: build local resilience
Which means doing it closer to home - re-localisation consumption production work play
Our choice… We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future,
whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather be engulfed by it.