The Inevitability of Autonomous Machines: How we get there from here James McQuivey, Ph.D. Vice President, Principal Analyst 1 October 2015
The Inevitability of Autonomous Machines: How we get there from hereJames McQuivey, Ph.D. Vice President, Principal Analyst
1 October 2015
Isn’t adoption hard?Wait a minute
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If autonomous machines are so inevitable…
…why are we so afraid of them.
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Source: ___
Even Machiavelli knew thisdifficultperilousuncertain
Machiavelli, The Prince
“…a new order of things…”
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True: People resist a new order of things,even when it is awesome.
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Source: Source: James L. McQuivey, “How To Predict What Consumers Will Do Or Buy,” Forrester Research, Inc., July 6, 2001.Source: “Brief: Privacy Concerns Will Shape, Not Stop, Google Glass Adoption” Forrester report.
“Never” going online
30%50%
Concerned about Google Glass
Want it anyway
45%
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Source: ___
The brain has no choice
We evolved under this kind of pressure
Today we still face costs, tradeoffs, and losses
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This is called loss aversion and it’s real But digital disruption reduces loss
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Old business Digital disruption
Digital disruption lets you reduce the cost of awesome
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Reduce the risk of new behaviors, and people will adopt them more quickly
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26%
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900m
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For now, hyperadoption exists at a low level, close to the individual product
Autonomous machines kick in as hyperadoption goes sytem-wide
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Today, we wonder if people will buy…
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The steps to autonomous machines are not about products, they’re about systems
Sensors Robotics Intelligent systems Ecosystems
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The steps to autonomous machines are not about products, they’re about systems
Sensors “sense”
Robotics “act”
Intelligent systems “think”
Ecosystems “connect”
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Consumer actions today, make this possible tomorrow
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Whoever owns the ecosystem, will make autonomous machines commonplace
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And people will love it
forrester.com
Thank you
James McQuivey, Ph.D. VP, Principal Analyst