J421: Analytic Journalism J421: Week II-III Ways of seeing/understanding: General Systems Theory.

J421: Analytic Journalism

J421: Week II-III

Ways of seeing/understanding:

General Systems Theory

2 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3_____________________________Fall ‘04

Readings for last and this week

What is/a the point(s) Steve Ross makes about the Challenger Space Shuttle settlement?

Steve Ross uses this article as a prologue to why reporters need to know how to use spreadsheets, but he also presents a larger issue about reporters, journalism and journalism education. --What do you think that is?


McGrath

McGrath’s article on the complexity of prediction talks about the “Fair Model.” What is a “model?” “A model is an abstraction -- a simplified

representation of a more complex object or system of objects. In most sciences, we use models to predict the behavior of the more complex system that we have modeled.”


Examples of models

Physics - models to predict the flow of air molecules over the wing of an aircraft.

Computer performance engineering - models to predict throughput and response time for computer systems.

Economic forecasting - models to predict consumer spending, the effect of tax increases or tax cuts on the markets

Political science – models to predict voter reaction


What is a Model?

Explains how nature operates Derived from observations It simplifies and categorizes the

information. A model must be sensible, but it

has limitations


Properties of a Model

A human inventions, not a blown up picture of nature.

Models can be wrong because they are based on speculations and oversimplification

Become more complicated with age. You must understand the assumptions

in the model, and look for weaknesses.

We learn more when the model is wrong than when it is right


Application of Models

Simulation models Weather prediction

http://www.weather.com/outlook/driving/interstate/regional?reg=ne

How a city works http://www.communityviz.com/index.asp?circuit=4&fuse=library

How journalists use simulation models: The Institute for Interactive Journalism http://www.j-lab.org/cool_poli.html



http://www.communityviz.com/index.asp?circuit=4&fuse=library

http://www.communityviz.com/index.asp?circuit=4&fuse=library


How journalists use simulation models

The Institute for Interactive Journalism http://www.j-lab.org/cool_poli.html

Everett, Washington Herald’s “Waterfront Renaissance” http://www.heraldnet.com/waterfront/13898794.CFM


Application of models

Subsection on Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior of the American Political Science

Association http://www.apsanet.org/~elections/ Political Forecasting Special Interest Group

http://morris.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/Political/

http://www.apsanet.org/~elections/



http://morris.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/Political/


Journalists, et al., in Infosphere

Changing Infosphere:

InMetabolism

Latent Energy

EnergyOut

DataIn Analysis Info

Out

Species in Biosphere:


Think of a phenomenon as . . .

. . . an onion (with a peel and layers) . . . an organism (with stages of life, blood,

head, and heart) . . . a factory (with raw material, source of

power, bosses, and workers) . . . a building (with foundation, windows, and

façade) . . . an ecology (with niches, climates, and food

chains) Source: Weinberg, Gerald M. “An Introduction to General Systems Thinking” http://www.dorsethouse.com/books/gst.html See also http://www.geraldmweinberg.com/Bookstuff/Each_Book/GST.html

http://www.dorsethouse.com/books/gst.html

http://www.geraldmweinberg.com/Bookstuff/Each_Book/GST.html



. . . a language (with grammar, dialects, and speakers)

. . . a code (with secrets, transmitters, and receivers)

. . . a body (with personality, sexuality, upbringing, and occasional disease)

. . . a system (with inputs, feedback, and outputs) . . . a structure (with hierarchy, needs, and

objectives)

Source: Horwitz, Richard P. http://twist.lib.uiowa.edu/rhorwitz/rootsas.htm ©2000



. . . a game (with plays, rules, and referees) . . . a drama (with roles, script, and audience) . . . a city (with streets, sewer lines, and

neighborhoods) . . . a text (with authors, genres, and readers) . . . an ideology (with premises and

implications) . . . a regime (with a currency, rulers, and

rebels).

Source: Horwitz, Richard P. http://twist.lib.uiowa.edu/rhorwitz/rootsas.htm ©2000


Why General Systems Theory?

If one learns the structures, when transferring from one discipline to another, much of the learning could be transferred. When studying a new discipline one would simply have to learn the labels on the structures in the new discipline.


Narrowing the Focus: GST

Resource: http://www.systems-thinking.org/welcome.htm

"Studies the organization of phenomena.... Investigates both principles common to all complex entities and the 'models' (usually mathematical) which can be used to describe them.“

SYSTEMS: "...things that collectively behave differently as opposed to their behavior when separated.“

http://www.systems-thinking.org/welcome.htm

http://www.systems-thinking.org/welcome.htm


Examples of systems thinking

“Inspiration” http://www.inspiration.com/test/dswmedia/intro.html

Golda Meir and Indira Gandhihttp://www.inspiration.com/productinfo/inspiration/using_insp/index.cfm?fuseaction=socialstudies

Causes of the French Revolutionhttp://www.inspiration.com/productinfo/inspiration/using_insp/index.cfm?fuseaction=socialstudies

Congress of Viennahttp://www.inspiration.com/diagrams/ed/fire.html

http://www.inspiration.com/test/dswmedia/intro.html

http://www.inspiration.com/test/dswmedia/intro.html

http://www.inspiration.com/productinfo/inspiration/using_insp/index.cfm?fuseaction=socialstudies




http://www.inspiration.com/diagrams/ed/fire.html


Brief introduction to GST

Attributes of a system….1. Composed of variables, i.e. elements

that can be defined, or described, separately. Sub-variables. Tree-to-branch-to-

leaf-to-cell

2. There are relationships between variables Horizontal relationships Vertical (i.e. hierarchical)

relationships



3. A system has boundaries Conceptual Legal: corporate, jurisdiction Geographic Cultural

4. A system has goals, self-defined or with a definition imposed by a server/researcher Make money Provide for group security, happiness,

procreation



5. A system learns from changes in its variables or environment


A newspaper as a system

Editorial

Production

Circulation

Advertising

“Backoffice”


A newspaper as a system

Editorial

Local News

Int’l News Business Sports


A newspaper variables and sub-systems

Editorial

Local News

Int’l News Business Sports

High SchoolCollegeProfessional


System hierarchy and “zooming”

Editorial

Sports

Newspaper

Media

Football

H. S. Football

Higher Concept

Lower Concept


Online enterprise Dynamic system model

http://www.simventure.com/models.html

http://www.simventure.com/models.html


Value of GST

Demands definition/focus on exactly what system are you talking about?

Demands consideration of level of analysis, i.e. “zooming” levels of focus

Demands definition of variables and then the relative importance of those variables

Demands consideration of relationships between variables


GST as basis for simulation models Once system, goals, variables and

relationships defined, can start to ask “How do we measure the strength of those relationships?”

This is where dynamic simulation models kick in.


These activities involve resources and power Resources:

The symbolic and material components a system needs to carry out its tasks.

Power: The use of resources by one system in order to gain compliance by another system.


Power role

Power roles Resource-controlling relationships Taken on mostly by systems

Producer Power Role Creates material for release to public Competition over niches


Why General Systems Theory?

If one learns the structures, when transferring from one discipline to another, much of the learning could be transferred.

When studying a new discipline one would simply have to learn the labels on the structures in the new discipline.


How many ways to “knowing”?

J421: Analytic Journalism

J421: Week II

Ways of seeing/understanding:

General Systems Theory

J421: Analytic Journalism J421: Week II-III Ways of seeing/understanding: General Systems Theory.

Documents

j421 week

rary http

ne http

interactive journalism

analytic journalism

right slide

economic forecasting

fair model