. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007 Present Value: Calculations and Interpretation Classes 3 & 4: March 5 and 7 (LA) and March 1 and 6 (OCC)
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Present Value: Calculations and Interpretation
Classes 3 & 4:
March 5 and 7 (LA) and
March 1 and 6 (OCC)
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
From last classes . . .
What should be the goal of financial managers?
What do we need to know to pursue goal? How can we assess progress towards that
goal? What is a firm’s market value? Market cap?
How do we compute them?
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Overview: Classes 3 to 6 Discounted present value: basic tool given
projections of cash flows and discount rate– Present value and wealth creation– One and multi-period cash flows– Patterns in cash flows = formulas– Applications to valuation: bonds– Application to valuation: stocks
To be addressed later: projecting cash flows, choosing a discount rate
(Class 3 & 4)
(Class 5 & 6)
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Determinants of Value Cash, Time, Risk determine value Present value analysis deals with the effect
of time or timing on value Cash flow estimation is the subject of the
next part of the course (classes 5 to 8) Risk is incorporated in the discount rate
that we discuss in Part 3 of the course In discussing present value analysis now,
we assume that cash flows and discount rates are given
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Emphasis on Present Values Chapter 4 raises a number of topics relevant to the
calculation of present values:– Simple versus compound interest
– Compounding interval
– Continuous compounding
– Future values
– Calculation of number of periods of cash flows to achieve a given present or future value
We will not emphasize these issues, we concentrate on basic present value calculations
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Present Value of Cash Flows
Calculation of present values is key technique to assign values
Present value calculations are applications or simplications of two basic formulas: PV of single cash flow =
PV of multiple cash flows =
tt
)r1(
CF
Tt
1tt
t
)r1(
CF
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Calculation of Present Values
9091$.10.1
1$
r1
CPV 1
1
8264$.10.1
1$
)r1(
CPV
222
2
7513$.10.1
1$
)r1(
CPV
333
3
nn
n)r1(
CPV
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Examples / Applications U. S. Treasury strip prices are examples of
market determined discount factors for default-risk free cash flows
The structure of present value tables like those in the text (A.1 and A.2) are very straightforward
Time in discounting in in terms of periods, usually one year, but often shorter intervals
Compounding interval will affect present or future values
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Present Value Calculations Present values can be calculated using
present value tables and paper, calculators and paper, routines programmed into calculators, and spreadsheets
All correct methods produce the same answers
There is often more than one way to calculate the answers using formulas or individual cash flows but, if correct, they are all mathematically equivalent
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Example of Three Approaches
Present value of $1000 received at the end of each year for five years discounted at 10%
Three (at least) ways produce same answer:
)6209.6830.7513.8264.9091(.000,1$791,3$PV
)7908.3(000,1$791,3$PV
106209.10000,1$1.
1
1.1
1
1.
1000,1$791,3$PV
5
(Using Appendix Table A.1)
(Using Appendix Table A.2)
(Using Perpetuity formula and Appendix Table A.1 discussed later)
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Characteristics of Present Value Present value calculations are non-linear in
the discount rate and growth rates, means changes in present values are not proportional to changes in the discount rate
Changes in timing or patterns of growth must always be calculated, relying on intuition is dangerous
Terminology may be confusing: discount rate, discount factor, interest rate, cost of capital, opportunity cost, and yield all can mean the same thing in a calculation
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Example of Dangers Change discount rate in previous example to 20%
from 10%, PV becomes $2,991, reduced to 78.9% of $3,791 at 10%, not half.
Change times to $1,000 for ten years at 10%, PV becomes $6,146, not double.
Delay first cash flow by one year, PV reduced by about 10%, or if by three years, PV reduced by about 25%, difference between delay of one or three years is not three times greater.
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Meaning of Present Value and Equality of Present Values
Present Value of $1,000 for five years at 10 percent (Table A.2)
$3,790.80 is equivalent to $1,000 at the end of every year for five years at 10 percent
Future value of $3,790.80 at end of five years is $3,790.80x(1.10)5=$6,105.12
This is also future value of $1,000 for five years at 10 percent (see Table A.4)
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Equivalence of Present Valueto Annual Cash Flows
Beginning of PeriodItem Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
Previous Year 3791.00 3170.10 2487.11 1735.82 909.40Interest 379.10 317.01 248.71 173.58 90.94Accumulation 4170.10 3487.11 2735.82 1909.40 1000.34Cash Ouflow -1000.00 -1000.00 -1000.00 -1000.00 -1000.00BeginYear 3791.00 3170.10 2487.11 1735.82 909.40 0.34
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Example of Future Value
Beginning of PeriodItem Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
Previous Year 0.00 1000.00 2100.00 3310.00 4641.00Interest 0.00 100.00 210.00 331.00 464.10Accumulation 0.00 1100.00 2310.00 3641.00 5105.10Cash Inflow 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00BeginYear 0.00 1000.00 2100.00 3310.00 4641.00 6105.10
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Summary of PV/FV Examples Present value is the amount that can
replicate cash flows if discount rate is the future interest rate
Maximizing present values also maximizes future values if interest rates do not change (in this case, they are equivalent)
Present values and future values of different patterns of cash flows will differ from calculations using constant discount rate if interest-rates vary through time
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Net Present Value Net present value (NPV) is the difference between
the present value of the future cash flows and the cost of acquiring the cash flows
In most examples, costs are immediate and are not discounted, while cash flows are in the future and must be discounted
More generally, costs and benefits may both be discounted if some costs occur in the future
Net present value is a measure of how much more something is worth than it costs, or a wealth increase, as we discuss and illustrate later
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Positive Net Present Values
A positive net present value means that future cash flows represent earnings higher than the discount rate
Net present value represents the excess returns (returns above the discount or opportunity rate) represented by the future cash flows
Net present values represent value added relative to the opportunity rate
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Seek Simplifying Patterns in Cash Flows for Short-cuts
Can always evaluate individual annual cash flows but this is cumbersome
Simplest pattern is constant cash flow each year --
First formula to memorize is
PVCr
time
Cash flow
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Useful Present Value Formulas
Perpetuity:
Growing Perpetuity:
Annuity:
Growing Annuity:
PVCr
PVC
r g
PV Cr r r T
1 1
1( )
PV Cr g r g
xgr
T
1 1 11
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Simple Patterns in Cash Flows
Perpetuity = Preferred dividend Growing perpetuity = Approximate cash
flows from new products or stock earnings Annuity = Retirement fund or car or
mortgage loan payments Growing annuity = Approximate cash flows
from investment with limited life or lifetime earnings
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Graphical Representations
Perpetuity:
Growing Perpetuity: Time
Cas
h Fl
ow
0
0Time
Cas
h Fl
ow
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Graphical Representations
Annuity:
Growing Annuity:0
0
Cas
h Fl
ow
TimeT
Cas
h Fl
ow
TimeT
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Sources of Present Values
Present value of $1 perpetuity at 20% is $5 Present value of $1 annuity for five years at 20%
is $2.99 Therefore, present values of $1 from years six to
infinity at 20% is $5 minus $2.99 = $2.01 (less than half of $5)
Present value of perpetuity growing at 10% starting at $1 and at 20% is $10
Growing over infinite life is valued at $10 minus $5 or $5
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Graphical Presentation of Four Present Value Formulas
time0
A B
DCCash Flow
E
T
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Graphical representation of the four important formulas
Areas in graph represent parts of future cash flows - Perpetuity = A+B
Growing Perpetuity = A+B+C+D+E Annuity = A Growing Annuity = A+C You can solve for value added by a piece of
cash flows, for example cash flows after T, by subtracting A from A+B
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Example: $1 growing at 10% Discounted at 20%
50
A =$ 2.99 B = $ 2.01
D = 1.23$ 1
E = $ 3.23
C = $ .54
PV = $ 10.00
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Present Value and Net PV (NPV) Present values are calculations assuming
expected cash flows and required discount rates
Each may differ for different analysts– Knowledge and skill about future cash flows– Assessment of risk and alternative investments
Net present value = Present value - cost Contrast present value with intrinsic value,
market value, under-valued and over-valued
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Use of Present Value Formulas Familiarity with PV formulas important For example, what is future value of constant
annual cash flow? Using annuity
obtaining (see. p. 840)
Relations between present value formulas are really simple
FV r rT [( ) ] /1 1
FV Cr r r
rT
T
1 1
11
( )( )
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Using PV Formulas to Find Rates
You can solve for r given PV, in simplest case of perpetuity r = C / PV
With a value for g and PV in growth formula, find r also easy and common in stock analysis (we will use later)
With annuities and other formulas you can also solve for r although the equations are non-linear requiring searches
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Present Value and Wealth Wealth = Present value of consumption Wealth = Present value of cash income Wealth = Change in value of consumption
= Change in present value of cash income Wealth => Increase in utility from
consumption Wealth = Net present value Net present value > 0 => Wealth increased
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Present Value and MVA/EVA (I)
Market value added is how much more assets are worth than they cost
MVA is in part the present value of returns above the opportunity rate on investments thus represents management’s ability to find investments better than alternatives
EVA represents the returns above the opportunity rate and is a measure of management’s superior investment strategy
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Present Value and MVA/EVA (II)
Market values represent present value of expected future cash flows
If market value is above acquisition cost (MVA), management is expect to produce cash flows are above opportunity rate levels
Excess returns (EVA) can be from existing investments and future growth opportunities or growth options
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Present Value Summary Present values represent cash amounts that can
reproduce a pattern of cash flows in the future given the discount rate
Two equal present values can represent different patterns of future cash flows
Future values and present values are equivalent measures of value given the discount rate
Net present values are measures of the increase in wealth representing increased utility from increases in present and future consumption
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Present Value Analysis: Review
Objectives Vocabulary Problem Assignments Relation to syllabus and requirements
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Basic Steps to Valuation in Finance
Estimate cash flows (CASH, TIME)– Easy or hard depending on asset– Look for patterns in cash flows
Choose a discount rate (TIME, RISK)– Risk adjusted– Opportunity cost
Calculate present value and net present value
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
Valuation in Finance
Applies to all investment opportunities, including– investments in fixed plant and equipment– starting a new business– selling a line of business (spin-off)– buying an existing business – values of bonds and stocks– real estate investments
Used by financial managers, stock and bond analysts, real estate investors
J. K. Dietrich - GSBA 548 – MBA.PM Spring 2007
For Next Classes Read Chapter 5, 14 and 20 Do problems as assigned Download or call or write for annual report,
10K, and proxy statement, and any other disclosures, for the group project firm
Bring Value Line Investment Survey and Standard and Poor’s reports for the company to class
Look for analysts’ reports and press coverage of the group firm