www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR CONGRESS Shipping market developments and perspectives for Portuguese ports PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 10 th October 2016
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www.drewry.co.uk
IX AGEPOR CONGRESS
Shipping market developments and
perspectives for Portuguese ports
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 10th October 2016
www.drewry.co.uk 2
IX AGEPOR Congress
Contents
• Drewry’s Introduction
• Market Outlook
‒ Dry Bulks
‒ Tankers
‒ Containers
• Perspectives for Main Portuguese Ports
www.drewry.co.uk
Drewry’s Introduction
4 www.drewry.co.uk Drewry | Maritime Research and Consulting Services
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Market Outlook - Dry Bulks
6 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mill
ion
To
nn
es
Iron Ore Coal Grain Minor Bulks
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Coal and Grain trade
Grain Coal
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Steel production Iron ore trade
Global trade
Dry bulk trade is expected to grow above 4% this year
Steel production and Iron ore trade
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
• Minor bulk trade is expected to increase by 3.5% in
2016 resulting into better employment of smaller
vessels
• Drewry believes global thermal coal trade for 2017
and thereafter will rise slower than 2016 as many
economies are shifting away from coal-based power
generation
• Iron ore trade is expected to rise at a slower pace of
around 3% till 2020
• The grain production due to favorable weather
conditions in the EU, the US and Russia is expected
to remain high in 2016 but the consumption majorly
from China, a major importer, is likely to fall due to
rise in domestic production of wheat and other grains
7 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Dry bulk supply to grow at a slow pace
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
• With more than 30 million dwt to be added and a
similar number of vessels expected to be removed,
the dry bulk fleet is expected to remain stagnant in
2016
• The demolition activity remained high in 2015
because a majority of shipowners earning below the
operating cost decided to scrap their vessels. The
demolition activity is projected to be record in the
first half of this year
• The average age of the dry bulk fleet declined from
9.5 years in the beginning of 2015 to 8.8 years by
April 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
mili
on
to
nn
es
Dry bulk deliveries
Handysize Supramax Panamax Post Panamax Capesize VLOC
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
mill
ion
to
nn
es
Dry bulk demolition
Handysize Supramax Panamax Post Panamax Capesize VLOC
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
mill
ion
to
nn
es
Fleet development
Handysize Supramax Panamax Post Panamax Capesize VLOC
CAGR: 2010-15: 8.1% CAGR: 2015-20: 1.6%
8 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Dry bulk market is expected to recover at a slower pace
• The record high demolition and low new orderings will
provide relief to the oversupplied dry bulk market and
rise in China’s iron ore demand will help Capesize
freight rates to improve in 2016
• However, overall 2016 is expected to be at the
historical low
• With earnings struggling below the operating cost
layup activity in all segments peaked in 2016 as
shipowners prefer to layup than sail at negative
earnings
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Bill
ion
to
nn
e m
iles
Tonne-miles supply and demand
Demand Supply
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Time charter rates (1-year duration)
Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US$
/day
ove
rsu
pp
ly
Oversupply as % of demand
Oversupply Capesize rate
9 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Dry Bulk market outlook
• No great risk in terms of global economic growth. Most of the emerging economies expected to grow.
• China’s fresh appetite for coal and iron ore improvements, largely due to the rising domestic cost of
production, will help trade grow at a healthy pace.
• Emerging economies will have higher steel intensity going forward due to increased infrastructure
investment.
• The oversupplied dry bulk fleet will get some relief with record high scrapping and low new ordering by
the shipowners.
• The continuous declining in demolition age reflects desperation of owners to exit market.
• The freight market is expected to keep improving in 3Q16 as a correction in supply and improvement
in demand will help over supply to contract. However, the full recovery can not be expected anytime
soon as the unstable fundamentals will take time to stabilize.
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Market Outlook - Tankers
11 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Oil trade to increase at a good pace in 2016-18
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Trad
e g
row
th
Trad
e (
mill
ion
to
nn
es)
Global Oil Products Trade
Products trade Growth (right-axis)
High inventories
to cap trade growth
Crude oil trade
• Global crude oil trade to increase by around 3%
p.a. in 2016-17
• US imports declined in the recent years due to
rising domestic production, now with low oil prices
hurting domestic production, imports are rising
again
• Higher than normal growth in oil demand to
support oil trade in 2016-17, demand to increase
by 1.4 mbpd as compared to normal growth of 1.2
mbpd
• Expansion in refinery capacity in the Middle East
and high inventories to cap the trade growth
Refined products trade
• High inventories to cap the pace of products trade
growth
• Rising demand to support products trade
• Increasing refinery capacity in Asia and Middle
East to result in an increase in long haul trade
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
Trad
e g
row
th
Cru
de
tra
de
(m
illio
n t
on
ne
s)
Global Crude Oil Trade
Crude oil trade Growth (right-axis)
US imports to support
trade growth
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
12 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0
100
200
300
400
500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fle
et
gro
wth
Fle
et
(md
wt)
Crude tanker fleet development
Handysize Panamax Aframax
Suezmax VLCC Growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fle
et
gro
wth
Fle
et
(md
wt)
Product tanker fleet development
Handysize MR1 MR2 LR1 LR2 Growth
Tonnage supply to surge in the next two years
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Flo
atin
g st
ora
ge (
md
wt)
Floating storage
Handy Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC
Fleet to increase
by 7.5% in 2017
Fleet to increase
by 7% in 2017
• Tanker fleet to expand by more than 10% by the
end of 2017 on account of a strong surge in
deliveries
• Although demolitions will also increase, but they
will not be enough to curb fleet growth
• If floating storage, which surged recently, declines
gradually in the 2017 when oil market reaches in a
balanced position, it will further inflate the tonnage
supply
• Fleet growth to retard after 2018 as deliveries
decline
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
13 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Tanker market outlook
0%
4%
8%
12%
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
Ss-D
d g
row
th (
%)
Sup
ply
-De
man
d (
BTM
)
Product tanker supply-demand balance
Demand Supply
Demand growth (right axis) Supply growth (right axis)
-5%
-2%
1%
4%
7%
10%
8,000
8,800
9,600
10,400
11,200
12,0002
01
3
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
Ss-D
d g
row
th (
%)
Sup
ply
-De
man
d (
BTM
)
Crude tanker supply-demand balance
Demand Supply
Demand growth (right axis) Supply growth (right axis)
• Although demand growth will remain firm in 2016-18, the tonnage utilization will decline for both crude and
product tankers due to strong surge in fleet.
• In the later years (2019-21), although fleet growth will slowdown, the tonnage demand will also increase at a
sluggish pace, giving no major respite to owners.
• Change in trade pattern due to return of Nigeria, Libya and Venezuela is likely to result in average haul length
as their exports to Asian markets will increase, which will provide some support to tonnage demand.
• Tonnage utilization for product tankers will improve slightly towards the end of the forecast period due to
increase in long haul products exports from the Middle East.
• Freight rates to decline in 2016-17 despite a healthy growth in demand as tonnage supply will surge higher
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
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Market Outlook - Containers
15 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
Glo
bal
De
man
d (
00
0’s
te
u)
Global Demand Development - Total Handling
North America Europe Asia Middle East & South Asia Latin America Africa Oceania
+1.8% +2.5%
Container global demand
+1.0%
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
16 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Growth concentrated on larger vessels
• Fleet size has grown strongly over last 10 years:
• CAGR 2005-2010 = 11.0%
• CAGR 2010-2015 = 8.2%
• From 2005 to 2010, the strongest growth was in the range 8,000-10,000 TEU – 45% pa
• However from 2010 to 2015, strongest growth in the largest vessel category (>10,000TEU) – 55% pa
• The capacity in the lower size ranges has been virtually static
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
ytd
TEU
Cellular Fleet Development by size range
<1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 3,000-5,000 5,000-8,000 8,000-9,999 10,000+
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
17 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
85
90
95
100
105
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Glo
bal S
up
ply
/Dem
an
d I
nd
ex
'000 t
eu
Global supply/demand balance
Effective capacity Global S/D Index RH axis (100 = equilibrium)
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Headhaul utilisation factors and global supply/demand
Demand Capacity Utilisation (%, right axis)
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
Container shipping supply/demand balance
18 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Freight rate forecast: Global Trades
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
Glo
bal
Su
pp
ly/D
em
and
Ind
ex
US$
/te
u
Freight Rates, Supply/Demand & Unit Costs
Global Average Freight Rates (US$/TEU) - left hand axis Global Operating Cost per TEU (US$) - left hand axis
Global Supply/Demand Index - right hand axis
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
19 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
The shipping industry struggles to make a profit
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
Estimated carrier industry EBIT profit/loss AND EBIT margins, 1Q09-2Q16
EBIT profit/loss ($bn) EBIT margin (right axis)
Note: EBIT margins based on average of sample carriers after currency conversion to US dollars when necessary. Sample consists of APL; CMA CGM; Evergreen Marine Corp; Hanjin Shipping
(container); Hapag-Lloyd, HMM (container); K Line (containerships); Maersk Line; Matson (ocean transportation); MOL (containerships); NYK (liner); Regional Container Lines; Samudera
Container Lines; Wan Hai; Yang Ming and Zim
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
20 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Slot cost per TEU
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
Cost reduces with increasing vessel size, but the rate of increase diminishes
21 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Carriers play ‘follow the leader’ in ordering bigger ships
Mid 1990s
Regina Maersk 7,400 teu
Other carriers followed…
Mid 2000s
Emma Maersk 15,500 teu
Other carriers followed…
2013
Maersk Triple E 18,000 teu
MSC Oscar 19,224 teu (2015)
Other carriers following…
2018?
24,000+ teu vessels?
Not ordered yet
22 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Future alliance structure (2017 onwards)
Current – Until Q2 2017
Future – From Q2 2017
2M
Ocean 3
CHYKE
2M
Ocean
THE
G6
23 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
- 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000
Maersk Line
MSC
CMA-CGM + APL
COSCO + CSCL
Hapag Lloyd + UASC
Evergreen
Hamburg Sud
Hanjin
OOCL
MOL
Yang Ming
NYK
Hyundai
K Line
PIL
Top 15 container lines - Effect of recent consolidation
Recent Consolidation – more to come?
Merge – Q1 2016
Agreed
to merge
Speculation Three Japanese Lines?
More to come?
CMA-CGM
aquired APL
Source: Operated Capacity as per Alphaliner March 2016 (pre-consolidation)
Hanjin + Hyundai A missed opportunity?
Share of capacity
18.3%
16.1%
14.1%
9.5%
8.9%
5.6%
3.9%
3.7%
3.4%
3.4%
3.1%
3.0%
2.5%
2.3%
2.1%
24 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Lines Terminal Operators
Fragmented terminal capacity is a challenge at many ports
25 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Lines Expect:
• Reliability
‒ Departure on schedule
‒ Connectivity with feeders/relay services at
hubs
‒ All containers loaded (including empties)
‒ No constraints/congestion on landside
service
• Productivity
‒ Speed of vessel turnaround is important.
As vessel size increases, port time is
maintained, in spite of increased container
exchange
• Efficiency
‒ Largest vessels for the trade/route to be
handled without physical constraints
‒ Unit handling costs are maintained –
requires a competitive environment
Terminal performance is critical to achieve the benefits of
bigger ships - Who pays?
26 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
5 things you need to know
1) Drewry’s five year global container port
demand forecast is just about less than 3%
per annum
2) Industry moving towards value sector from
growth sector, albeit still highly profitable
3) All capacity plans are under review by
operators
4) Major M&A deals are changing landscape,
more are likely to follow
5) GTO/ITO strategies are at two extremes –
cautious holding vs. aggressive expansion
27 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
• Overcapacity is still a big issue on many routes, as is the cascade and effective deployment of ships is
now critical. The widened Panama Canal now adds a new dimension for deployment.
• Ocean carriers are bleeding money and consolidating. Hanjin’s failure was a warning; other carriers may
be vulnerable.
• The last pieces of the alliance merry-go-round are being put in place, but service changes are still
coming thick and fast.
• Contract rates are at record lows this year, but spot rates on major routes have started to increase on
some routes.
• Rates will be higher next year – but calling it a recovery is too strong.
• Shippers will be challenged by fewer route choices, more supply chain disruption and question marks
over carrier viability.
Container market outlook
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Perspectives for Portuguese Ports
29 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Portugal GDP review
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
215
220
225
230
235
240
245
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Gro
ss d
om
est
ic p
rod
uct
,
co
nst
ant
pri
ces,
Pe
rce
nt
chan
ge
GD
P A
T C
ON
STA
NT
(20
13
) P
RIC
ES
($
bill
ion
)
Portugal’s historical real GDP growth and outlook, 2000-2020
GDP AT CONSTANT PRICES ($ billion) AT 2013 PRICES - IMF Gross domestic product, constant prices, Percent change
• As per the IMF “Low GDP and productivity for more than a decade and high household, corporate and public debts”
have resulted in Portuguese economy contracting from its peak of 2008.
• Economic activity began to turn around in 2013. As per the IMF “high unemployment and low investment will
continue to weigh on the economy’s growth potential”.
• Manufacturing and hotels/restaurants (the latter a proxy for tourism) accounted for almost a half of the total
increase in employment and will drive stronger domestic demand and continued export growth.
• The latest IMF economic outlook for Portugal is for continued recovery with growth averaging 1.2% p.a. to 2020.
Source: IMF
30 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Portugal foreign trade overview
11% 20%
15%
17%
74% 63%
Exports Imports
Portugal Export and Import Commodities
Fuels and mining products Agricultural products Manufactures
8%
31%
Others
China
Italy
Angola
Morocco
Germany
United Kingdom
Netherlands
United States
Algeria
France
Spain
Portugal Export Partners
2000 2015
8%
31%
Other
Kazakhstan
Netherlands
Germany
United Kingdom
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
France
Angola
Colombia
Spain
Portugal Import Partners
2000 2015
Source: INE, WTO
• Spain is the largest single market for Portugal’s
exports and imports. In 2015, Spain accounted for
31% of Portugal’s exports and 31% of Portugal’s
imports by weight
• Other EU countries are also important trading
partners for both imports and exports
• Exports from Portugal mainly comprise of
agricultural products, foodstuffs, wine, oil
products, chemical products, plastics and rubber,
hides, leather, wood and cork, wood pulp and
paper, textile materials, clothing, footwear,
machinery and tools, base metals
• Imports to Portugal mainly comprise of agricultural
products, chemical products, vehicles and other
transport material, optical and precision
instruments, computer accessories and parts,
semiconductors and related devices, oil products,
base metals, food products, textile materials
31 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Overview of Portuguese ports – Liquid bulks
Source: GTIS, INE, Drewry Maritime Research
Major ports handling dry bulk
Sines
Lisbon
Aveiro
Leixões
MAIN ISSUES
• Crude oil liquid bulk operations concentrated at
Sines and Leixões to supply the refinery plants
of Sines and Matosinhos
• Refined products, chemicals and edible oils
also handled in Lisbon and Aveiro
10.2 11.5 11.6 11.1
13.8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Portugal crude oil imports, Million tonnes
3.1
2.0
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.7
0.7
2.8
Angola
Saudi Arabia
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Azerbaijan
Russian Federation
Brazil
Cameroon
Others
Crude oil importing partners, 2015
32 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Overview of Portuguese ports – Dry bulks
Coal 34%
Steel Products 29%
cereal 12%
Forest Products 9%
Petcoke 3%
Other 13%
Dry Bulk - Imports
Cement 40%
Steel Products 31%
Forest Products 11%
Sand 5%
Aggregates 5%
Other 8%
Dry Bulk - Exports
Major ports handling dry bulk
Sines
Setubal
Lisbon
Aveiro
Leixões
MAIN ISSUES
• Large volume of coal concentrated in Sines
• Import of cereals handled at Aveiro, Lisbon
and Leixões
• Improvement of marine access might reduce
shipping cost per tonne and make Portugal
more competitive on exporting to farther
markets (cement, steel) and importing cereals
for animal feed
Source: GTIS, INE, Drewry Maritime Research
33 www.drewry.co.uk IX AGEPOR Congress
Overview of Portuguese ports - Containers
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,0002
003
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
00
0 T
EU
Total Portugal container volumes (TEU)
Gateway Transhipment % YOY Growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
% S
har
e
Portugal gateway market share
Sines - Gateway Aveiro Figueira da Foz Leixões
Lisboa Setúbal Viana do Castelo
Major ports handling containers
Sines
Setubal
Lisbon
Leixões
MAIN ISSUES
• Transhipment activity concentrated at port of
Sines
• Captive hinterland: Leixões to Porto, Lisbon
and Setubal to Lisbon metropolitan area
• Balanced trade between loaded imports and
exports attractive to shipping lines
• Yard storage constraints in some ports
• Existing draft restrictions
• Disruptions in Lisboon caused by strikes
Source: INE, Drewry Maritime Research
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China, 200120
T +44 20 7538 0191 T +91 124 497 4979 T +65 6220 9890 T +86 (0) 21 6182 6759
Obrigado!
Eduardo Greco
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