Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy ITF Transport Outlook Transforming Transportation Washington DC 26 January 2012 ITF Transport Outlook Meeting the needs of 9 billion people Transforming Transportation Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy Washington DC 26 January 2012
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ITF Transport Outlook: Meeting the needs of 9 billion people
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Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy
ITF Transport Outlook
Transforming Transportation
Washington DC
26 January 2012
ITF Transport Outlook
Meeting the needs of 9 billion people
Transforming Transportation
Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy
Washington DC
26 January 2012
Global passenger transport activity 2000 – 2050 Index of pkm (2000 = 100)
2
High: European saturation levels in BRICs
Low: Japanese saturation levels in BRICs
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
Global passenger transport activity 2000-2050
• Meeting the needs of 9 billion people
• Outlook fraught with uncertainty over such a long period
• Global passenger-km increase 3-4 times by 2050
• Outside OECD pkm could increse 5 or 6 fold
• Range is not measure of uncertainty but illustrates potential impact of modest changes in assumptions
• Low scenario – IEA base case in WEO 2008, Emerging economies reach Japanese levels of car ownership and use levels
• High scenario: European saturation levels
• Share of car trips seems set to rise from <10% in China to >50%
3
Aviation
• Medium term in line with IEA and IATA
• Longer term:
• Low scenario lower than IATA especially in OECD countries
• High OECD continues to grow non-OECD accelerates with deregulation and open skies
• High is still much lower than aircraft makers forecasts
4
Global freight transport activity, 2000 - 2050 Index of tkm (2000 = 100)
5
Low: Dematerialisation of growth
High: Constant freight intensity
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
Freight Transport Activity 2000-2050
• Global freight tonne-km to rise 2.5 – 3.5 times by 2050
• Low scenario: Dematerialisation of growth, eg shift to services
• High scenario: GDP growth continues at 2005 freight intensity levels
• Developing countries may be embarking on a relatively freight intensive growth path, so full upside risk not reflected in graph
6
High Scenarios
• Best interpreted as where demand would like to go
• Realistic? Policy intervention?
• Eg fast urbanisation might slow growth of car ownership and use
• High energy prices would suppress
• But high scenarios far from impossible
7
Impact of Economic Crisis
USA External trade by sea and air, percentage change from pre-crisis peak Jun-08 (Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted)
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-20%2% 3%
1%
Sep
-10
USA external trade by Air, total (tonnes)
Sep-11
Jul-
08
-16% -3% -4%
Sep
-10
USA external trade by Sea, total (tonnes)
Jul-
08
Sep
-11
Sep
-11
Jun
-11
Jun
-11
Source: ITF Trade and Transport Database
Impact of Economic Crisis
• Total trade by sea and air in US
• 2 years to recover, but now flatlining or falling again
• End of stimulus, cooling of Chinese growth, in Europe bite of austerity
• Outlook incorporated 5 year shift
• Next will look at longer stagnation
9
EU External trade by sea and air, percentage change from pre-crisis peak
(Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted)
10
-17%
-4%
-4%
Sep
-10
EU 27 external trade by sea, total (tonnes)
Jul-
08
Sep-1
1
Jun-1
1
-20%
14%
8%4%
Sep
-10
EU 27 external trade by air, total (tonnes)
Jul-
08 Sep-1
1
Jun-1
1
Source: ITF Trade and Transport Database
Shift in centre of gravity from OECD to non-OECD countries (halfway case between high and low scenarios)
11
Non-OECD46%
OECD54%
Passenger mobility (pkm) 2000
Non-OECD78%
OECD22%
Passenger mobility (pkm) 2050
Non-OECD48%OECD
52%
Surface freight (tkm) 2000
Non-OECD69%
OECD31%
Surface freight (tkm) 2050
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
Global CO2 emissions from transport index (2000 = 100)
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Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
High: European car saturation levels in BRICs air liberalisation
Low: Japanese saturation levels in BRICs and dematerialisation
Global CO2 emissions from transport
• CO2 emissions rise less quickly than mobility through fuel economy improvement
• Increase 2.5 to 3 times
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2005 2010 2015 2020 20253
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12US-3%[1]US-6%[2]Cali-forniaCanadaEUJapan
Lit
ers
per
100km
, n
orm
ali
zed
to N
ED
CHistorical performance
Enacted targets
Proposed targets
Unannounced proposal
Uncertain targets
[1] Based on 3% annual fleet GHG emissions reduction between 2017 and 2025 in the September 30th NOI .[2] Based on 6% annual fleet GHG emissions reduction between 2017 and 2025 in the September 30th NOI .[3] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower.
Source:
Car Fuel Economy/CO2 Targets
March 2011
Global CO2 emissions from transport
• Maximisation of cost effective fuel economy improvement around the world, eg through continues progress with emissions standards would stabilise emissions
• GFEI target
• 8 l/100km ave new fleet economy in 2008 rise to 4 l/100km in 2030; whole fleet 2005
• Impressive but not enough to for IPCC 450ppm CO2 limit
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Average LDV on-road fuel-intensity,baseline and stabilization of emissions(litres gasoline equivalent per 100km)
16
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
Peak Travel?Passenger-kilometres by private car and light trucks, 1970 – 2009 index (1990 = 100)
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Source: ITF 2011 Transport Outlook from Household Survey Data
Peak travel?
• Evidence of reduced responsiveness of car and light truck travel to increasing incomes in advanced economies
• As the effect of income on travel (vkm) diminishes, it leaves a larger role to other determinants such as fuel prices, urbanisation, ageing and network management
• But economic cycle visible in US in particular
• And income distribution may have a large role. Income growth in last decade concentrated on wealthiest 10%. Incomes decreased in many of the lower deciles.
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Peak travel?
• High income households are less responsive due to saturation, low income households very responsive
• Whether or not growing income translates into more driving (VMT) thus also depends on the distribution of income growth
• Uncertainty over future income likely to play a role in medium term
• Demographics becoming increasingly important
• These factors have strong implications for the projection of long run transport demand
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Passenger Modal Split, 2005 and 2050 halfway case between high and low scenario, p-km (%)
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OECD Non-OECD
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.
Car+LT Air Rail Buses Other0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
20052050
Car+LT Air Rail Buses Other0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
20052050
Freight modal split by region, 2005 and 2050halfway case between high and low scenarios, t-km (%)
21
OECD Non-OECD
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using MoMo version 2011.