It works! Using Episode-Based Care to Improve Outcomes 2018 Mega Healthcare 1/16/18
It works! Using Episode-Based Care
to Improve Outcomes
2018 Mega Healthcare
1/16/18
It’s a Crazy Time in Healthcare!
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Price Tag $69B
10,000+ community-based sites of care
Price Tag $4B
40,000+ caregivers
Market Cap $213B
25,000+ physicians
Amazon
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health
• VBC and Payment Reform
• What We Have Learned from Bundled Payments
• Episode of Care Outcomes
• Attributes of Top Quartile Performers
• Creating Shadow Bundles Within ACOs
Agenda
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CMS Payment Reform Path
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1) FFS not linked to Quality
2) FFS linked to Quality
3) APMs built on FFS Model
4) Population Based Payment
- HRRP
- VBP
- PVBM
- ACO
- Medical
Home
- Bundled
Payment
- Pioneer
ACO (Y3-5)
- Next Gen
ACO
Full Risk
No Risk
Transfer of Payment Risk: Payer to Provider
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Rewarded forVolume Pay for Reporting Pay for Performance
Shared Savings, NoDownside Risk
Shared Savings,Some Downside
RiskShared Savings,
More Downside RiskPMPM, Payment forSpecialty Services
Global Budget orPercent of Premium
Integrated Finance &Delivery
Provider Downside Payer Downside
Full Risk
1) FFS not linked to Quality
2) FFS linked to Quality
3) APMs built on FFS Model 4) Population Based Payment
MSSP1
Next Gen
MSSP1+ MSSP2
MSSP3
No Risk
Bundled Payment
2017 CMS ACO Participation
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438
6
36 45
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
MSSP 1 MSSP 2 MSSP 3 Next Gen
2017 CMS ACOs By Risk Track
• In essence, FFS-Based ACOs represent one BIG bundled payment
One BIG Bundled Payment
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70%
30%
Total Medicare FFS Spend By Episode of Care (EOC) and Non-EOC
EOC Non-EOC
• 48 BPCI Episode Families
• Initiated by acute care stay
• 90-day post-acute period
Developing Essential Capabilities
Strategies to Mitigate Payment Risk
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Payment Risk
Accountability
Analytics
Provider Comp
Group Individual
Population Episode
Group Individual
EOC
1) FFS not linked to Quality
2) FFS linked to Quality
3) APMs built on FFS Model 4) Population Based Payment
Episode of Care Approach Brings New Capabilities
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Item ACO/Population Approach Episode of Care Approach
Target Payment
Measure
Population Average (Per Member Per
Month)
Per Episode of Care (Target Price)
Payment Accountability Provider Group (Shared Accountability) Individual Provider (Individual
Accountability)
Analytics Population-level Episode-level
Internal Cost Analysis Typically not addressed Episode-level
Quality Measures Population-based Episode-based
Focus of Provider
Engagement
Primary Care Providers Specialty Providers
Care Management
Focus
Gaps in care; longer term management
of Medically Complex and Chronic and
Acute Conditions
Clinical Pathways; shorter term
management of Procedures and Acute
Conditions
Provider Compensation Based on achievement of population-
level quality measures and net payment
savings
Based on achievement of episode-
specific quality measures and individual
contribution to net payment savings
• It’s a great way to engage specialists
• Post-acute providers are anxious to partner
• Granularity matters
• Focusing on one patient at a time works
• Don’t spend $1 to save 50 cents
• Measuring internal costs is necessary – No margin, no mission
• Individual accountability is crucial
• Applying episodes of care to conditions is complicated
What have we learned from EOC/Bundled Payments?
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Episode of Care Accountability
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Day 0 Day 90
Payment Accountability
Hospital MD SNF Imaging Home
Health Readmit ED
Outcome Accountability
Does Episode of Care approach improve outcomes?
BPCI Y3 Lewin Report, October 2017
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“…BPCI participants have responded to BPCI incentives, but there
are relatively few instances in which these responses significantly
changed key outcomes.” - The Lewin Group
“Because of the large number of situations encompassed under the
initiative, including the selective and heterogeneous group of
participants and limited and varied experience of participants, it is
challenging to reach conclusions about the overall impact of BPCI.”
- The Lewin Group
Ref: https://downloads.cms.gov/files/cmmi/bpci-models2-4yr3evalrpt.pdf
Does Episode of Care approach improve outcomes?
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8.9%
7.7% 7.3%
-12.4%
-4.8% -4.8%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
COPD CHF LEJR
Mean Percent Change in Payment Per Episode By Episode Type Top Quartile vs Bottom Quartile, BPCI Q4-13 to Q2-15
Top 1/4 Mean % Bottom 1/4 Mean %
Ref: https://downloads.cms.gov/files/cmmi/bpci-models2-4yr3evalrpt.pdf
What distinguishes the top quartile?
Key Attributes
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Alignment
Data
Integration Care
Redesign
Optimization
Improving
Results
Alignment
• Governance
• Physician Leadership
• Transparency
• Role Clarity and Accountability
• Team Engagement – including the continuum
• Incentives and/or Gainsharing
Savings
HospitalPhysicians
• Payment and Internal Cost Data
• Measuring Workflow Execution
• Timely and Actionable Provider-Level Reporting
Data Integration
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Data Integration
Provider-Specific and Actionable
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Ability to
forecast
performance
Individual
Physician
performance
Data Integration
PAC Provider Reports
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Individual SNF
Performance
Data Integration
Granularity
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Site of
readmissions
and related
costs
Readmission
diagnoses
and related
costs
• Common Attribute of Top Performers: EXECUTION
• It’s a marathon, not a sprint
• Give equal attention to outcomes and ROI
• Don’t spend $1 to save 50 cents!
Care Redesign
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Care Redesign
ROI Focused: Effective and Efficient Care Management
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Episode Care
Coordinator
Episode Managing
Physician
Acute Care Post-Acute Care Pre-Hospital
• Clarity
• Accountability
• Efficiency
200:1
to
800:1
Optimization
Risk Stratification
Risk
Algorithm
High $$$$, Plan A
Moderate $$, Plan B
Low $, Plan C
Risk
Optimized
Care Plan
Optimization
Example: Risk-Optimized Care Plans
RISK:
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ASSESSMEN
T
CARE PLAN
CARE PLAN
Quality
• Readmissions reduced by 56%
• 32% lower post-acute care utilization
Financial
• Care coordinator productivity increased 3x
• Average 7:1 return on investment
• 18% reduction in average episode cost
Risk-Optimized Management By Exception Model
Results
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56%
32%
3x
7:1
18%
Optimization
Create High-Performing PAC Networks
73% of Medicare FFS variation is attributed to Post-Acute Care
$
$
$
$
$
Ref: Variation in Health Care Spending, Institute of Medicine, 2013 (http://nap.edu/18393)
Optimization
Actively Manage the PAC Network
• Set utilization expectations
• Track and report performance
• Evaluate and refine the network
• Risk Adjusted Episodes of Care
• Predictive Analytics & Machine Learning
• Post-Acute Care Risk/Gain Sharing
• Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM)
• More Impactful Patient Engagement Tools
• Condition-Based Episodes of Care
• ACOs Embrace Episode of Care Approach
Optimization
Looking Ahead (next 3-5 years)
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EDW ML
Consumers
Integrating APM Learning and Capabilities
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1) FFS not linked to Quality
2) FFS linked to Quality
3) APMs built on FFS Model 4) Population Based Payment
ACO
OCM
CPC+
CEC (ESRD)
Bundled Payment
Condition-Based
Bundled Payment
and Risk
Work Streams
• Building Episode of Care Capabilities
Creating “Shadow” Bundles Within ACOs
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2018
• Team Formation
• Care Design (1)
• EOC Analytics
• Internal Cost Analysis
• Specialist Funds Flow Models
• Payment Accountability Models
• Engage Employed MDs
2019
• Care Design (2-3)
• Pilot Shadow Bundle (Internal)
• Test Funds Flow Models
• Test Payment Accountability Models
• Engage independent MDs
• MD Comp Models
2020
• Care Design (3-5)
• Implement Shadow Bundles (1-3)
• Funds Flow
• Internal Costs
• Payment Accountability
• Internal MD Comp
CPC+
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For more information:
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Dennis O’Donnell, MHA, PT
Chief Executive Officer
(224) 548-4812