ISM-NEW YORK REPORT ON BUSINESS AUGUST 2019 KELLY BARNER | Business Survey Chair, ISM-New York | [email protected] | (508) 272-2766 JONATHAN BASILE | Senior Advisor, ISM-New York | [email protected] | (908) 433-0104 NEW YORK CITY REPORT ON BUSINESS More Up Than Down In August, New York City purchasing managers expressed optimism across a number of indices, most notably in employment and those that are forward looking, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management New York. New York Metro Current Business Conditions recovered from the 3+ year low of 43.5 reported in July to reach a 4 month high of 50.3 in August. Despite the drop seen last month, August's finding is nearly the same as the 50.0 reported in June. The Six-Month Outlook continued the upward movement started last month to reach a 4 month high of 71.4 in August, up from 63.2 in July. The six month outlook has been a reliable short run guide for current business conditions over time. Company Specific Employment, a seasonally adjusted index, increased from 57.1 in July to 69.0 in August, reaching a 9 month high. Quantity of Purchases increased for the second month in a row, reaching the breakeven point of 50.0 in August after increasing 12.4 points to 46.6 in July. Despite the fact that Quantity is at the breakeven point this month, the finding is also a 3 month high. In August, top line and forward revenue guidance moved in opposite directions, but both stayed at or above the breakeven point. Current Revenues fell from 53.2 in July to 50.0 in August. Expected Revenues was the biggest mover of the month, increasing 16.2 points from 66.1 in July to a 4 month high of 82.3 in August. Prices Paid eased from 68.3 in July to 66.1 in August. ABOUT THE SURVEY: The purpose of the survey is to quickly assess business conditions among firms in the New York City area. The survey results are compiled as diffusion indices - the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). A reading of 50% means no change from the prior month, greater than 50% indicates a faster pace of activity, and less than 50% a slower rate. The Current Business Conditions index, Six-Month Outlook index, the NY-BCI, and the Employment index are seasonally adjusted. All other measures are not seasonally adjusted. -r is revised.
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ISM-NEW YORKREPORT ON BUSINESS
AUGUST 2019
KELLY BARNER | Business Survey Chair, ISM-New York | [email protected] | (508) 272-2766
JONATHAN BASILE | Senior Advisor, ISM-New York | [email protected] | (908) 433-0104
NEW YORK CITY REPORT ON BUSINESSMore Up Than Down
In August, New York City purchasing managers expressed optimism across a number of indices, most notably in
employment and those that are forward looking, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management
New York.
New York MetroCurrent Business Conditions recovered from the 3+ year low of 43.5 reported in July to reach a 4 month high of 50.3
in August. Despite the drop seen last month, August's finding is nearly the same as the 50.0 reported in June.
The Six-Month Outlook continued the upward movement started last month to reach a 4 month high of 71.4 in August,
up from 63.2 in July. The six month outlook has been a reliable short run guide for current business conditions over
time.
Company SpecificEmployment, a seasonally adjusted index, increased from 57.1 in July to 69.0 in August, reaching a 9 month high.
Quantity of Purchases increased for the second month in a row, reaching the breakeven point of 50.0 in August after
increasing 12.4 points to 46.6 in July. Despite the fact that Quantity is at the breakeven point this month, the finding is
also a 3 month high.
In August, top line and forward revenue guidance moved in opposite directions, but both stayed at or above the
breakeven point. Current Revenues fell from 53.2 in July to 50.0 in August. Expected Revenues was the biggest
mover of the month, increasing 16.2 points from 66.1 in July to a 4 month high of 82.3 in August.
Prices Paid eased from 68.3 in July to 66.1 in August.
ABOUT THE SURVEY:
The purpose of the survey is to quickly assess business conditions among firms in the New York City area. The survey
results are compiled as diffusion indices - the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the
same (considered positive). A reading of 50% means no change from the prior month, greater than 50% indicates a
faster pace of activity, and less than 50% a slower rate. The Current Business Conditions index, Six-Month Outlook
index, the NY-BCI, and the Employment index are seasonally adjusted. All other measures are not seasonally
adjusted. -r is revised.
CURRENT BUSINESS CONDITIONS (seasonally adjusted)
SIX-MONTH OUTLOOK (seasonally adjusted)
BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA (seasonally adjusted)
Current Business Six-Month Conditions Outlook NY-BCI*
August 2018 76.5 79.9 810.7
September 72.5 81.5 822.0
October 69.8 70.9 831.9
November 67.8 73.4 840.8
December 65.4 57.1 848.5
January 63.4 58.3 855.1
February 61.1 71.5 860.7
March 66.9 53.0 869.1
April 77.3 77.8 882.8
May 48.6 56.3 882.1
June 50.0 51.0 882.1
July 43.5 63.2 878.8
August 2019 50.3 71.4 879.0
* The NY-BCI is a cumulative diffusion index constructed from the diffusion index of Current Business Conditions for businesses in the New York City metro area. -r is revised.
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EMPLOYMENT (seasonally adjusted)
QUANTITY OF PURCHASES
The current month’s number of employees compared to the previous month.
The current month’s number of units purchased from suppliers compared to the previous month.
Aug July June May Apr Mar Year Ago Aug
69.0 57.1 60.9 54.6 66.0 59.5 62.0
Aug July June May Apr Mar Year Ago Aug
50.0 46.6 34.2 56.6 63.6 61.1 66.7
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PRICES PAID
The current month’s price levels paid for goods and services purchased from suppliers vs. the previous month.
CURRENT REVENUES
EXPECTED REVENUES
The ISM-New York REPORT ON BUSINESS is a monthly publication of ISM-New York, an affiliate of the Institute for Supply Management. Permission is granted to duplicate, republish or quote in whole or in part with credit. For Internet access, connect to: www.ismny.com.
The current month’s level of revenues (in dollars) compared to the previous month.
The expected level of revenues (in dollars) in the next six months.
Aug July June May Apr Mar Year Ago Aug
66.1 68.3 57.3 72.4 63.6 66.7 78.6
Aug July June May Apr Mar Year Ago Aug
50.0 53.2 43.9 60.5 63.6 62.5 83.3
Aug July June May Apr Mar Year Ago Aug
82.3 66.1 72.6 73.7 95.0 62.5 87.5
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