ISHTAR Suite: an advanced software tool for the assessment of … · 2014. 5. 19. · ISHTAR Suite: an advanced software tool for the assessment of short and long term measures for

ISHTAR Suite: an advanced software tool for the assessment of short and long term measures for improving the quality of life in the urban environment

A. Agostini, E. Negrenti & M. Lelli ENEA Italy

Abstract

The ISHTAR Project (FP5 – EESD Programme) aim was to build an innovative decision support tool for advanced urban management through the integrated analysis of the various environmental effects of technical and non technical measures. The suite includes both existing and newly developed models, covering the areas of citizens’ behaviour, transport, vehicle safety and emissions of pollutants and noise, pollutants dispersion and noise propagation, exposure to pollutants, noise and accident and related risk assessment, impacts on monument assessment and a tool for the overall analysis. These modules are integrated by a software Manager, a Suite Data Base, a commercial GIS and a user-friendly interface. This integration represents a significant technical achievement. Standard model suites normally include only a few of these models. The suite represents a strong enlargement of the applicability area, since with this kind of ‘multi-impacts’ tool the user is able to analyse in an integrated and ‘coherent’ way the various aspects of ‘global’ urban policies, without having to perform separate studies relying on different input information providing less credible conclusions. Beside the integration, the scientific core value of the ISHTAR Suite is represented by a few crucial modelling developments that can be summarized as: prediction of the effects of citizens’ reaction to postulated measures; improvement of vehicle emission modelling; development of an urban road safety model; a tailed estimate of pollution effects on citizens’ health based on the spatial-temporal analysis of population, noise and pollution maps. The high spatial and temporal flexibility in the use of the Suite maximizes the possibility of application from local short-term actions to widespread long-term policies, thus being of interest for different categories of users. The suite is going to be tested in the seven cities involved in the ISHTAR Project: Athens, Bologna, Brussels, Graz, Grenoble, Paris and Rome.

© 2005 WIT Press WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, Vol 84, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541 (on-line)

Sustainable Development and Planning II, Vol. 2 1449

1 Introduction

Citizens’ health and monuments are every day attacked by air pollution and noise and the traffic congestion causes stress to citizens and economical inefficiency. Most of the difficulties encountered in planning improvements in urban mobility and environment are due to the absence of an integrated tool allowing, during the decision making process, to take into account all the effects (on economy, environment, health and monuments) of the measures under analysis. Thus, the European Commission funded (5th FP EESD Programme, Key Action ‘City of Tomorrow and cultural heritage’) the ISHTAR Project (Integrated Software for Health, Transport efficiency and Artistic Heritage Recovery), coordinated by ENEA.

2 Objective

The Project aim was to build an advanced suite of software tools for the integrated analysis of the effects of measures and actions planned by local administrations for the improvement of urban mobility and environment.

Figure 1: A conceptual scheme of the ISHTAR suite.

3 Approach

The Suite includes both commercial tools and tools purposely developed for the ISHTAR Project [3]. The modelling chain starts from the simulation of the citizens’ behavioural changes, in terms of movements, attributable to the

IMPACTS ON MONUMENTS

CITIZENS’ BEHAVIOUR

HEALTH IMPACT

TRANSPORT

DIRECTS IMPACTS

POLLUTANTS & NOISE DISPERSION

OVERALL ANALYSIS


1450 Sustainable Development and Planning II, Vol. 2

measure under exam. The behavioural data (the so called ‘Origin-Destination’ matrix’) are then used by the transport model for the traffic simulation. The vehicular flows parameters so produced are then used as input for the direct impact module, which simulates emissions of pollutants and noise and the accidents occurrence. The pollutants emissions, calculated link by link, are transformed on aerial concentrations by means of a dispersion model, while the noise emission levels are input to the noise propagation model that computes the noise level on the road and on the buildings façade. These levels of pollution, noise and accidents risk constitute the basis for the exposure evaluation and then for the health risk assessment. The pollution levels are also used for the assessment of the effects on monuments. A further tool is in charge for the gathering of all the relevant data produced by the previous tools and making the overall evaluation (through a Multicriteria Analysis and a Cost-Benefit Analysis). The models are integrated by an ISHTAR Suite Manager, a user friendly interface and a commercial Geographic Information System. A conceptual scheme of the suite is in Fig.1.

4 The integrated modules

4.1 The Cellular Methodology

From the point of view of the modelling chain, the Suite starting model is represented by the Cellular Transport Methodology (CTM), a software tool developed by ISIS (Italy) that simulates the effects of policies and measures on citizens’ behaviour (in terms of movements). This model is the first ring of the model chain and on its ability of reproducing the different effects of different actions depends the capability in assessing the effectiveness of the measures to be implemented. The result of the CTM consists in new O-D matrices representing the modified behaviour of the population following the implementation of the postulated measures. This methodology produces people density patterns for the city “cells” (city portions) by estimating the in-out flows taking into account the total mobility demand and the distribution of attracting and generating points within the city. The O-D matrices produced by this tool are the primary input for traffic models. A further output of this model is the ‘present population’ estimate (split into groups for age, sex, activity) within the ‘cells’ during the day. This is an essential data for the exposure assessment. This SW is considered as an ‘ancillary’ tool, mainly because normally the cities have their own methodology/tool for assessing the effects of policies in terms of behavioural change. Anyway a pilot study has been carried out in Rome.

4.2 The transport model

The second ring of the chain is the transport model, which, on the basis of the O-D matrices provided by the CTM or by any other tool available to the user, simulates the movement’s distribution within the city network.



After a review of existing models, and taking into account the Suite needs, the traffic model ‘VISUPOLIS’ (by PTV) has been chosen for the integration within the suite as it can provide all the data needed by downstream models. . In particular the congestion description allows to simulate the different path and departure time choice, the accumulated delay and the path chosen, and, thanks to dynamic simulation of congestion, allows a better representation of vehicular flows and speeds. This tool is being tested through the Paris case study. In any case, the city administrations not interested in implementing this tool will be able to use their own traffic model providing the traffic data (at least the speed and flows for each link) in a compatible format.

4.3 Direct impacts module

The direct impacts (pollutants emissions, noise emission, accident occurrence) module used within the suite is TEE2003 (Transport Energy and Environment), developed and provided by ENEA and ASTRAN. This code has been developed and adapted for the ISHTAR Suite, refining the vehicle kinematics algorithms, and including new models for the estimation of cold emission distribution, parking process, emissions of new categories of pollutants, and finally for noise emissions and accident occurrence. As it regards the kinematics, TEE code can calculate link emissions starting from standard correlations based on average speed or from instantaneous emissions data, allowing emissions detailed calculation, according to the traffic input data available, either from measurements or from traffic models. As it concerns the estimation of the effects of cold emissions spatial and temporal distribution, TEE offers alternative solutions for the user, according to the more or less disaggregated information, allowing in any case to distinguish different situations. The parking process algorithm provides an approximated but meaningful treatment of traffic flows from and to parking areas and allows to locate cold vehicles emissions in space and time and a greater accuracy in the estimation of evaporative emissions distribution. TEE2003 contains two new sub-models: the noise emission model, (sensible to vehicular flow and speed, heavy duty vehicles presence and slope) and the accident occurrence model that calculates the total number of accidents involving only vehicles or vehicles and pedestrians.

4.4 Pollutant dispersion module

The pollutants dispersion is calculated with ARIA IMPACT provided by ARIA Technologies. ARIA Impacts is a gaussian model generally used for assessing long term and urban scale measures: it treats gaseous pollutants and particulate matter but does not consider chemical reactions in the atmosphere. The gaussian model has been chosen mainly because of the short time required for a single run as a study might require many runs (24 per day per scenario), an Eulerian model that can simulate also reactions in the atmosphere is too time-consuming for an integrated tool. A ‘canyon’ model is being purposely developed for the Suite; it



allows to take into account the air recirculation and the pollutants accumulation within the street canyons. The considered pollutants are: CO, NOx, SO2, VOC, PM. The model is completely integrated within the suite and provides data needed for calculating impacts on monuments and health.

4.5 Noise propagation module

The model that is in charge of the noise propagation simulation (noise emission is calculated by TEE2003) is a commercial software tool: Soundplan, by Braunstein & Berndt GmbH, Germany. Soundplan has been chosen because it doesn’t build just noise grids, but it calculates the noise levels on the receivers, as indicate by EC directives. Soundplan can simulate also the effects of the introduction of noise barriers and other methodologies for noise reduction. Furthermore Soundplan calculates the population exposure to noise during the day. However this is possible only with a detailed three dimensional reconstruction of the area under analysis.

4.6 Health impact module

This module is provided by WHO and consists in two parts: the first part TEX (Transport Exposure) has been purposely developed for ISHTAR and is a GIS application that calculates the citizens’ exposure to air pollutants taking into account the data provided by the upstream models. In particular it analyses pollution maps, and, overlaying them with the population activity and movements during the day, it estimates the disaggregated exposure of population groups by gender, age, and activity during the day. This module represents a real innovation in the field of exposure assessment: so far the exposure has been mainly calculated for a whole city during one year, while this tool can assess exposure of more or less small groups for short periods, even hour by hour. The other part of this module consists in HIT (Health Impacts of Transports); a software tool for the health risk assessment that calculates the health impacts taking into account the exposure to noise and pollutants and the accident occurrence calculated by TEE2003 and applies the dose-response curves available in literature.

4.7 Impacts on monuments

The pollution maps produced by the dispersion model are not only applied for assessing health impacts but also impacts on monuments. The tool that calculates the monuments impacts is developed by ENEA and PHAOS and, on the basis of pollution levels and the material constituting the monuments, calculates the crust formation or the lost of material, plus the cost of maintenance and/or restoration.

4.8 Overall analysis

The overall evaluation of the analysed measures is made by software developed by LMU-TraC. This tool is based on two methodologies: a Cost-Benefit



Analysis and a MultiCriteria Analysis. The module gathers the data from the upstream tools and specific data regarding the measures to be implemented and by assessing them in terms of money (CBA) or parameters (MCA) makes the measures comparable among them.

Figure 2: A scheme of the Integration Methodology.

Figure 3: Architecture of the ISHTAR suite modules and data.

5 The integration

The integration software (including the specific Ishtar Suite Manager that controls the run execution) has been developed by INRETS and manages the use

USER

INTERFACE

ISHTAR DATABASE ISHTAR GIS

TransportModule

DirectsImpacts

AQ and Noise

HealthEffects

MonumentsDamage

OverallAnalysis

ISHTAR SUITE MANAGER-

SW connect

or

commands

input - output

SW connect

or

SW connect

or

SW connect

or

SW connect

or

SW connect

or

USER

INTERFACE

ISHTAR DATABASE ISHTAR GIS

TransportModule

DirectsImpacts

AQ and Noise

HealthEffects

MonumentsDamage

OverallAnalysis

ISHTAR SUITE MANAGER-

SW connect

or

commands

input - output

SW connect

or

SW connect

or

SW connect

or

SW connect

or

SW connect

or



of the Ishtar Suite Interface (for input and output operations at suite level’) and the launching of the tools in the right order and with the proper objectives (e.g. the number of runs of each tool and parameters affecting the tools tasks). The tools launching is made by ‘software connectors’, i.e. software tools that manage the data exchange among the tools and the Ishtar Suite Database (the adopted format of exchange is ‘xml’). A commercial Geographic Information System (Arc GIS) is used for inputting and outputting the geographic data or the geo-referenced data (link data, area data). The GIS is used as well for data elaboration, mainly in the exposure calculation. The Suite has a user friendly Interface that allows the Suite utilization also by common users, like city planners. The architecture of the suite is shown in Figures 2 and 3.

6 Application and validation

So far the Suite has been used, in a disaggregated or aggregated way, for demonstrating its applicability and validity to the following case studies:

Athens The case study ‘Attiki Odos’ addresses the new roadway construction, Attica Periphery Road, which is assessed in terms of traffic, toll strategy and pricing, and environmental conditions (as air pollution primarily and in certain areas in terms of noise).

Bologna The Bologna Provincial Authority case study concerns the evaluation of infrastructure scenarios for the city of Imola with reference of alternative road paths.

Brussels The aim of the Belgian case study is to prepare the implementation of traffic banning measures in the Brussels area, according to the Plan Ozone of the Federal Government.

Graz The Austrian case study – coordinated by Graz University of Technology - is based on the traffic and noise impact evaluation of a 600 m long new road tunnel causing a relevant local traffic rerouting.

Grenoble Grenoble case study is intended to monitor the effects of the installation of reserved lanes for public transportation and new traffics lights on boulevards with heavy traffic. The site covers the Boulevards over a length of one kilometre, the time scale is 1999 – 2000.

Paris Every September 22nd the city of Paris takes part in a ‘car free day’. This typical short term event will be modelled with the ISHTAR suite of modules.



Rome This large scale case study involves the internal ring (including the Rome Limited Traffic zone), which will be transformed in a road traffic collector towards intermodal nodes with radial railway lines.

7 Conclusions

The ISHTAR Suite represents a breakthrough in the field of decision making support tools. So far the models used in this sector (generally just traffic, emission and dispersion models) were used separately and, with many difficulties, the data exchange between models was done manually, handling considerable amounts of data. A really integrated Suite, like ISHTAR is, allows the comparison of scenarios taking into account the effects on health, air pollution, noise, people mobility and traffic congestion, transport related economic competitiveness, safety, maintenance of infrastructures, built environment and cultural heritage. These characteristics will make the ISHTAR suite one of the reference tools to be used for the design and the assessment of urban environmental policies based on sustainable transport systems.

References

[1] Negrenti, E. et al. (2001) : ISHTAR Contract EVK4 CT-00034 (issued in Brussels by EC DG RES)

[2] Negrenti E. et al. (2002) : ISHTAR web site : http://www.ishtar-fp5-eu.com [3] Negrenti, E., Agostini, A. , Flavigny, P.O. ; ISHTAR Project: building a

models suite for urban sustainability; Proc. of the 1st International Symposium on Environment and Transport; Avignon, 19-20 June 2003; Robert Joumard; Les collections de l’INRETS; pp 123-131

[4] Negrenti, E and Hoglund P. ‘ISHTAR : an Integrated Models Suite for Sustainable Regional and Town Planning – Cities of Tomorrow Conference – Goteborg (S) – 23-24 August 2001

[5] Negrenti E., Agostini, A. ‘ISHTAR’ : ‘Integrated Software for Health, Transport efficiency and Artistic heritage Recovery’ ‘Transport induced Air Pollution conference – Boulder (CO), September 2004

[6] Negrenti, E. ‘ISHTAR Project : Building a Model Suite for Urban Sustainability - 21st ARRB/11th REAAA Conference ‘TRANSPORT - our highway to a sustainable future’ – Cairns – 18-23 May 2003

[7] Agostini A. , Lelli M., Negrenti E., A. Parenti; “TEE: an Advanced Software Tool for the Modelling of Direct Impacts of Transport Systems”, Urban Air Quality 2005 Conference Proceedings

[8] Agostini A. , Lelli M., Negrenti E.; “ISHTAR Suite: A Decision Support Tool For The Planning Of Sustainable Transport Systems”, Urban Air Quality 2005 Conference Proceedings

[9] Agostini A. , Lelli M., Negrenti E.; “ISHTAR Project: building an advanced decision support tool for improving urban sustainability”, Air Pollution 2005 Conference Proceedings, accepted for publication.



ISHTAR Suite: an advanced software tool for the assessment of … · 2014. 5. 19. · ISHTAR Suite: an advanced software tool for the assessment of short and long term measures for

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