Is the Common Mwanachi Benefitting From the EAC (March 2011)

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Isthe‘CommonMwananchi’

benefi4ngfromEACintegra:on?(asocio-economicperspec:ve)

ByAidanEyakuze

SocietyforInterna5onalDevelopment

www.sidint.net

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Theanalogyofstocksandflows

•  EAC’sStocks – Land,resources,people&talent,trust&goodwill

•  EAC’sFlows

 – Money,goods,rela:onships,informa:on,ideas,energy,innova:on.

•  Flowstransformthestocks,increasing(or

destroying)theirvaluetoindividuals,tosocietyandtotheplanet

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LakeVictoria–stockandflows

STOCK

Flow

Flow

Flow

Flow

FlowFlow

Oulow

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EACRegionalIntegra:on

•  Processoffacilita:ng,energizingandcatalyzingtheflowofgoods,services,money,people,

ideas,allofwhichcontaintransforma:veenergy

forgood(andill).

•  InthedecadesincetheEACTreatywassigned

 – Whathavebeenthetrendsofsomeoftheseflows?

 – Havetheybenefiedthe‘commonmwananchi’?

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A region of 

peoples

White Nile

Lingala

line

Swahili

line

Indian

Ocean

EastAfrica’s

‘naturalborders’

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EastAfrica’seconomy…

THEEAC

  GDP:$74.billion(2009est.)  Landarea:1.82millionkm2

  Pop(est).133.million

  PercapitaGDP:$42

CROATIA

  GDP$69.33billion

  Landarea56,1km2

  Popula:on.8million

  PercapitaGDP$15,700

BANKOFAMERICA

 Marketcap:$71billion(Dec08)

  Shareholder“popula5on”:1,842ins5tu5ons(6.3bnshares),3,423mutualfunds(2.8bnshares),80insiders(3millionshares)

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Moretradeisflowing…

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Exports/GDP Imports/GDP

1980s

1990s

2000-0

2005

Source:“DynamicsofEquityinTrade,Educa8onandMedia”,SID2011

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…and(increasingly)moreequitably

•  Intra-regionaltradehasgrownby9%sincestartofEACustomsUnionin2005

•  Kenya’sdominantposi:onasexporterisbeingchallenged.Itsshareof

intra-EACexportsfellfrom80%inthe1980sand1990sto61%by2008;

•  Uganda’sshareofintra-EACexportshasrisenfrom13%in2005to20%in2008;

•  Tanzania’s5%increaseinexportstoKenyabetween

2005&2008($9m–$250m+)

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…evenNigeriaisinves:nginEA.

0%10%

20%

30%

0%

50%

ReturnonEquity(2009)Nigeria'sDangoteupsstakeinS.Africacementfirm(June,2010)DangotehasinvestedinGhana's1.2million

tonnesperyearTemaCementFactory,andotherplantsinSenegal,

Zambia,Tanzania,Democra5c

RepublicofCongo,EquatorialGuineaandEthiopia….Cementdemandin

EastAfricaisexpectedtoriseby33%

nextyear,withconstruc;onlistedas

amajordriverofeconomiesinthe

region.

NigerianinvestorinjectsnewlifeintoBankom's

opera:on(October25,2010)“Asaresultofthepartnership,InterSwitchLtdofNigeria

willowna60percentstakeofthefrim(sic).”

..becausethereturnsinEAaresojuicy!

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Moreconnec:ons!“AirlinelaunchesDar-Mwanza

route”-Monday,17January2011

“Footlooseandbus-lovingEast

Africanistashavespawnedwhatisprobablythelargestandmost

efficientcross-bordertransport

systeminAfrica.Therearedozens

ofbusescrossingtheUganda-

Rwanda,Kenya-TanzaniaandTanzania-Ugandabordersevery

day.Attheendofschoolterms,

thesenumbersswelltoover30a

day.”CharlesOnyango-Obbo,SID2007 

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Moreconversa:onsareflowing…

Sourcehp//www.na:onmedia.com/newsleer/newsleer.html

“NEWSWAHILIPAPERLAUNCHEDINMOMBASA”–March2011

“Dubbedasthebest-selling

Swahilipublica5oninTanzaniawithover0,000copiessold,

thenewspaperispublishedby

MwananchiCommunica5ons

LimitedasubsidiaryofNa5on

MediaGroup,whichhopesto

replicatethesameormorenumbersinKenyaasin

Tanzania”

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Labourisflowing…toDRCtoo!

•  DesRwandaiscul5ventpourdesCongolais-Friday,0March2011(RNA)

“RusiziDesmilliersdeRwandaisdeBugaramavontchaquema:nauSudKivupourtravaillerdansleschampsdesCongolaisoudansceuxqu'ilsleurontloués.Letravailyest

abondantetleprixpayésa:sfaisant.”

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Conclusion•  Theprosecu:onoftheregionalintegra:onproject

hasbeendrivenbyafundamentalmo:veofimprovingthewelfareofEastAfricans(seeAr:cle7aoftheTreaty)

•  Thegreatestbenefitofregionalintegra:onistheexpansionoftheopportunitysetforEastAfrican

ci5zenstoexploit–easierflows,moreconnec:ons,alargerplayingfield.

•  Integra:onismakingiteasierforEastAfrica’swananchitotravel,totrade,totalk,toteach(andlearn)

•  Whether,andhowwechoosetotakeadvantageoftheseopportuni:esisen:relyuptous.

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The

People’s

Region

White Nile

Lingala

line

Swahili

line

Indian

Ocean