Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 1 Running Head: INFLUENCE OF NEGATIVE CAMPAINGS ON PUBLIC OPINION The Influence of Attitude on Public Decisions: How Negative Campaigns affect the Public Opinions Andrew Ciccone Quantitative Methods PROPOSAL Baruch College
Credibility, reputation, identity, and image may be irreparably damaged from negative campaigning. This study provides useful insights for political advisors and the communications industry to consider.
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Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 1
Running Head: INFLUENCE OF NEGATIVE CAMPAINGS ON PUBLIC OPINION
The Influence of Attitude on Public Decisions:
How Negative Campaigns affect the Public Opinions
Andrew Ciccone
Quantitative Methods
PROPOSAL
Baruch College
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 2
Purpose
Credibility, reputation, identity, and image may be irreparably damaged from negative
campaigning. This study provides useful insights for political advisors and the communications
industry to consider.
The Attitude-Toward-The-Ad Model assumes that favorable reactions to an advertisement are
projected onto the brands featured in the advertisement (Muehling, 1987). The premises of this
proposal will apply the criterion of related theory to determine whether the severity of negative
statements influence public attitudes towards the person(s) making such statements and those
who are being criticized. The topic of study is the impact and affect, if any, of negative
campaigning in politics.
Advertisers and communicators often have concerns about unintended perceptions and
interpretations of comparative advertising and or other communicative campaigns. This
consideration is relevant as there are varied opinions on mentioning competitors in your
messages, and if it is prudent to do so.
Other responses to comparative campaign formats regarding beliefs about claims, credibility of
sources, could have a direct and negative effect on the public‟s perceptions of those criticized.
The severity of statements towards others may have lasting reputational damage significantly
influencing attitudes the public has towards those criticized.
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 3
Literature Review
The interest in the political process at times is apathetic, however there is a real desire for many
citizens to participate and support various issues and candidates. Various internal and external
influences affect Americans attitudes and beliefs on a local level in their communities and on a
national scale, on opinions formulated. The presidential candidate‟s beliefs influence the
public‟s attitudes as voters indentify with an individual candidate symbolically or may favor a
candidate based on their position(s) on various issues. Most people choose candidates
combining the candidates personal attributes with their positions on various issues.
Subjective norms may predict behavioral intentions however societal pressures may have less of
an influence on behavioral intentions than the attitude construct. In other words, how
individual‟s processes information from media, interpersonal sources, and the intellectual
community (attitudes) typically prevail over societal norms.
Intentions are decisions to act in a particular way. Eagly and Chaiken (1993, p. 168) note that
intentions are a “psychological construct distinct from attitude, [which] represents the person‟s
motivation in the sense of his or her conscious plan to exert effort to carry out behavior”. In
applications of The Theory of Reasoned Action TRA, researchers have operationalized
intentions as either the likelihood that one will perform a behavior (Koballa, 1988) or as an
approximation of performing a behavior in the future. The model of goal directed behavior
posits that attitudes, positive and negative emotions, and subjective norms influence intentions
through desires. There is a connection between personal attitudes and being influenced by
subjective norms that may illicit an individual to take action on an issue. The hypothesized
model recognizes that the connection is affective and does encompass emotions, suggesting that
eagerness encompasses one‟s level of interest and intensity of desire to act.
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 4
Literature Review (Cont’d)
Eagerness to perform behavior reflects their desire to take action and incorporates each person‟s
goal(s) and internal motivations. Consumer‟ motivations to act are measured in the context of
thinking about engaging in an activity. Much research in marketing, consumer behavior, and
psychology has suggested that consumers vary in the degree of eagerness to engage in a new
behavior (Bargh, 2002).
Attitudes toward performing a behavior are generally viewed as assessments of an individual‟s
propensity towards a behavior (Finlay, Trafimow, & Villarreal, 2002).
A person‟s beliefs that certain individuals or organizations (referents), believe how an individual
or group should perform, or refrain from culturally defined behavior. Norms are a function of
various types of societal beliefs, determined by the culmination of the experiences and influences
of a person‟s beliefs and motivations to adhere to a subjective norm. Normative beliefs are
individual‟s beliefs that underlie the norms that pervade in one‟s reality. Attitude toward a
specific behavior and subjective norms have been shown to account for much variance in
intention to perform a specific behavior (Finlay et al., 2002).
Involvement is the motivational quality “to move forward to engage in a new behavior”
(Warrington & Shim, 2000).
Researchers have found that the closer match between one‟s self-concept and a proposed
behavior, the more motivated a consumer is to act (Charng, Piliavin, & Callero, 1988;
Warrington & Shim, 2000). Rapaport and Orbell (2000, p. 320) examine behavioral intentions,
“If a person indentifies with a specific role or action, they are more likely to express a positive
attitude towards the action, which in turn may act as a predictor of intention.” Both Higie and
Feick (1989) and Kapferer and Laurent (1993) conceptualize involvement as having a self-
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 5
Literature Review (Cont’d)
expressive component. The extent to which one‟s choice or position on an issue tells others
about you. In contrast, self-concept motivates individuals to perform certain behaviors because
doing so will communicate meaning to others and further enhance one‟ self concept. In other
words, one‟s self image is very important motivator of behavior (Grubb and Grathwohl, 1967).
Hypothesis
A number of processes may account for the impact of communicative influences from the media,
public opinion polls, and word of mouth on an individual‟s attitudes and beliefs. The classical
conditioning effect is most often cited in which the affect generated by the message “transfers”
to the intended audience. Learning theory offers a theoretical rationale for this transference
process, simply stated our attitudes towards good things is favorable and generally speaking our
attitudes towards objects associated with bad things is unfavorable. Therefore positive or
negative feelings associated with an issue or message may also be projected onto an individual or
group. The Fishbein (1975) multi-attribute model assumes that attitudes towards objects are
comprised of beliefs associated with the object with specific attributes and evaluations of the
attributes.
From previous studies, it has been proven that subtle negative campaign messages do not
adversely affect those being criticized. Hypotheses were formulated in this study to unearth any
correlation between the severity of negative campaigns and how the public‟s attitudes are
influenced by those making such statements and those being criticized.
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 6
Hypothesis (Cont’d)
On the basis of the literature reviewed research questions were chosen as opposed to formulating
hypotheses as there is not enough compelling research on the effects of negative statements on
those criticized and how such statements affect public attitudes.
RQ1: An overtly negative campaign message towards those criticized
unfavorably affects the public‟s opinion of those criticized. It does
not adversely affect the public‟s opinion of those making such
statements.
RQ2: An overtly negative campaign message towards those criticized
has no affect on the public‟s opinion of those criticized. However,
it does adversely affect the public‟s opinion of those making such
statements.
Methodology
Methods & Measures
Scholars Carrel and Wilmington (1998) studying persuasion know that compliance, performing a
behavior or act, differs from internalization, valuing a behavior or act such as a statement.
Baseline quantitative pre-test measures of the credibility of the political candidates from the
2008 election were surveyed utilizing self-report closed end questionnaires to ensure internal
validity. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee were
all measured as to the credibility of each candidate utilizing (Pfau and Eveland, 1996) semantic
differential scales of measurement to assess voter‟s attitudes. Researchers (Berlo, Lemert, &
Mertz, 1971;
Influence of Negative Campaigns on Public Opinion 7
Methodology
Methods & Measures (Cont’d)
E. W. Miles & Leathers, 1984; Teven & Comadena, 1996) found that credibility (believability),
a multi-dimensional concept comprised of three independent factors: authoritativeness,
trustworthiness, and dynamism. Each of these factors was measured by six 7-point semantic