IS KYOTO THE KEY? Global Warming, Industry and Economy.

IS KYOTO THE KEY?IS KYOTO THE KEY?

Global Warming, Industry and Global Warming, Industry and EconomyEconomy

OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

Global Warming: Established fact or Global Warming: Established fact or Scientific Uncertainty?Scientific Uncertainty?

The role of the chemical industryThe role of the chemical industry The Kyoto Protocol and it’s global impactThe Kyoto Protocol and it’s global impact What should and can be done?What should and can be done? Current advancementsCurrent advancements

““GLOBAL WARMING”GLOBAL WARMING”

Greenhouse gases: Greenhouse gases: naturally occurring naturally occurring (CO(CO22, CH, CH44, nitrous , nitrous

oxide, ozone, water oxide, ozone, water vapor) and not vapor) and not naturally occurring naturally occurring (HFC’s, PFC’s, SF(HFC’s, PFC’s, SF66))

Sinks and land-useSinks and land-use

FACT OR FICTION?FACT OR FICTION?

Known:Known: Atmospheric composition Atmospheric composition

is changingis changing Greenhouse gases trap Greenhouse gases trap

heat and tend to warm heat and tend to warm planetplanet

Human activity produces Human activity produces greenhouse gasesgreenhouse gases

Uncertain:Uncertain: Extent that human-Extent that human-

induced greenhouse induced greenhouse gases responsiblegases responsible

Projecting impacts- Projecting impacts- especially localespecially local““Some of the largest Some of the largest uncertainties are uncertainties are associated with events associated with events that pose the greatest that pose the greatest risk to human societies.”risk to human societies.”

GREENHOUSE GASESGREENHOUSE GASES

COCO22 by far largest by far largest contributorcontributor

Vary in ability to absorb Vary in ability to absorb heat in atmosphereheat in atmosphere

HFC’s and PFC’s HFC’s and PFC’s highesthighest

NONOxx>CH>CH44>CO>CO22

Often measured in Often measured in MMTCE, weighted by MMTCE, weighted by GWPGWP

CARBON DIOXIDECARBON DIOXIDE

Combustion of Combustion of waste, fossil fuels waste, fossil fuels and woodand wood

Primarily in Primarily in transportation sectortransportation sector

U.S.: 1400 MTC/yr~ U.S.: 1400 MTC/yr~ 23% of worldwide 23% of worldwide emissionemission

METHANEMETHANE

Decomposition of Decomposition of organic wastes in organic wastes in landfillslandfills

Production and Production and transportation of transportation of fossil fuelsfossil fuels

LivestockLivestock

NITROUS OXIDENITROUS OXIDE

Agriculture, energy and industryAgriculture, energy and industry 73% from Agriculture, 22% Energy, 5% 73% from Agriculture, 22% Energy, 5%

IndustryIndustry Nitrogen fertilization of soilNitrogen fertilization of soil Fossil fuel combustionFossil fuel combustion Adipic acid and nitric acid productionAdipic acid and nitric acid production

GLOBAL APPROACH-IPCCGLOBAL APPROACH-IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Established in 1998 by United Nations and Established in 1998 by United Nations and

World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization Open to all WMO and UN membersOpen to all WMO and UN members Designed to answer to scientific questions Designed to answer to scientific questions

about global warmingabout global warming Three branches- science, impact, mitigationThree branches- science, impact, mitigation

THE MONTREAL PROTOCOLTHE MONTREAL PROTOCOL

1987:, Designed to halt deterioration of ozone 1987:, Designed to halt deterioration of ozone layer-ratified by 172 countrieslayer-ratified by 172 countries

United States ratified in 04/88 United States ratified in 04/88 Ozone depletion may affect ocean as sink for Ozone depletion may affect ocean as sink for

greenhouse gases, as well as UV-B radiationgreenhouse gases, as well as UV-B radiation Phased out CFC’s, HCFC’s, halons, methyl Phased out CFC’s, HCFC’s, halons, methyl

bromidebromide→ HFC’s and PFC’s→ HFC’s and PFC’s In general, not successful: ’98/’99 Antarctic In general, not successful: ’98/’99 Antarctic

hole largest, deepest ever…additional hole hole largest, deepest ever…additional hole over UK/Scandinaviaover UK/Scandinavia

THE KYOTO PROTOCOLTHE KYOTO PROTOCOL

1997 Kyoto, Japan IPCC: Designed to reduce 1997 Kyoto, Japan IPCC: Designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsgreenhouse gas emissions→ global warming→ global warming

Commits parties to legally-binding targets to Commits parties to legally-binding targets to reduce or limit greenhouse gas emissionsreduce or limit greenhouse gas emissions

Targets total 5% overall reduction in Targets total 5% overall reduction in greenhouses gases from 1990 figuresgreenhouses gases from 1990 figures

149 countries involved, not all under emission 149 countries involved, not all under emission reductionreduction

KYOTO MEASURESKYOTO MEASURES

““Enhancement of energy efficiency…”Enhancement of energy efficiency…” ““Protection and enhancements of sinks…”Protection and enhancements of sinks…” ““Promotion of sustainable form of agriculture…”Promotion of sustainable form of agriculture…” ““Research…development and increased use of new Research…development and increased use of new

and renewable forms of energy…”and renewable forms of energy…” “…“…phasing out of market imperfections, fiscal phasing out of market imperfections, fiscal

incentives, tax and duty exemptions and subsidies in all incentives, tax and duty exemptions and subsidies in all greenhouse gas emitting sectors…”greenhouse gas emitting sectors…”

“…“…reduction of methane emissions through recovery reduction of methane emissions through recovery and use in waste management, as well as in the and use in waste management, as well as in the production, transport and distribution of energy.”production, transport and distribution of energy.”

ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONSCONSIDERATIONS

“…“…The Parties shall strive to implement The Parties shall strive to implement policies in such a way as to minimize policies in such a way as to minimize adverse effects, including …climate adverse effects, including …climate change, effects on international trade, change, effects on international trade, and social, environmental, and economic and social, environmental, and economic impacts…”impacts…”

CURRENT STATUSCURRENT STATUS

143 of 149 parties have ratified, accepted, 143 of 149 parties have ratified, accepted, approved or accented as of March 1, 2005approved or accented as of March 1, 2005

Parties not ratifying: Australia, Croatia, Parties not ratifying: Australia, Croatia, Kazakhstan, Monaco, Zambia and the United Kazakhstan, Monaco, Zambia and the United StatesStates

Parties that committed to emissions reduction Parties that committed to emissions reduction committed 0-17.4% reductionscommitted 0-17.4% reductions

Controversial in feasibility, value added, Controversial in feasibility, value added, economicseconomics

WHO IS WEIGHING IN?WHO IS WEIGHING IN?

Russian Federation: Ratified Kyoto Protocol on Russian Federation: Ratified Kyoto Protocol on 11/18/0411/18/04Russian aide to the president, Andrei Illarionov: Russian aide to the president, Andrei Illarionov: “It is a very dangerous, harmful and destructive “It is a very dangerous, harmful and destructive document for Russia,”document for Russia,” noting that Kyoto noting that Kyoto requires 80% reduction in carbonic acid requires 80% reduction in carbonic acid emissions by 2050 which would reduced emissions by 2050 which would reduced Russia’s economic potential by 70%. Russia’s economic potential by 70%. “The “The GDP and personal income levels will drop by GDP and personal income levels will drop by 2.5-3 times.” 2.5-3 times.” (02/04/05)(02/04/05)

WHO’S WEIGHING IN?WHO’S WEIGHING IN?

Australia: has not ratifiedAustralia: has not ratified Ian Castles, Australian Bureau of statistics and David Ian Castles, Australian Bureau of statistics and David

Henderson,OECD’s economics and statistics Henderson,OECD’s economics and statistics department head criticize underpinning economic department head criticize underpinning economic assumptionsassumptions

global warmingglobal warming→→COCO22 →→ projected world economic projected world economic output/energy consumptionoutput/energy consumption

Castles and Henderson: IPCC analysis assumes too Castles and Henderson: IPCC analysis assumes too lowlow economic output in developing world and too economic output in developing world and too fastfast a a closing of gap with developed world closing of gap with developed world →too fast growth →too fast growth in world GDP and carbon-intensive developmentin world GDP and carbon-intensive development

“…“…Kyoto itself will arguably super-charge carbon Kyoto itself will arguably super-charge carbon emissions…” –Terry McCrann, Herald Sun (2/16/05)emissions…” –Terry McCrann, Herald Sun (2/16/05)

WHO IS WEIGHING IN?WHO IS WEIGHING IN?

United States: Clinton signed in ’97, Senate refused to United States: Clinton signed in ’97, Senate refused to ratify citing economic concernsratify citing economic concerns

President Bush does not support KyotoPresident Bush does not support Kyoto Richard Schmalensee, MIT- U.S. would have to close Richard Schmalensee, MIT- U.S. would have to close

all of its coal-fired power plants by 2012 just to get all of its coal-fired power plants by 2012 just to get halfway to Kyoto's targets halfway to Kyoto's targets

Alan Manne, Stanford- following the Kyoto Alan Manne, Stanford- following the Kyoto requirements would be the equivalent of a $1,600 per requirements would be the equivalent of a $1,600 per year tax on every family of four. year tax on every family of four.

"It may well be unworkable," William Nordhaus, Yale, "It may well be unworkable," William Nordhaus, Yale, Council of Economic Advisers under Carter Council of Economic Advisers under Carter

WHERE DOES A ChE FIT WHERE DOES A ChE FIT IN?IN?

COCO22: combustion fossil fuels: combustion fossil fuels→ alternative → alternative fuels, increased efficiencyfuels, increased efficiency

Methane: landfill waste→ new materials, Methane: landfill waste→ new materials, utilize gas for energy; livestock → design utilize gas for energy; livestock → design of new feedof new feed

NONOxx: nitrogen fertilizers→ alternative : nitrogen fertilizers→ alternative chemicals; improved industrial practiceschemicals; improved industrial practices

MOVING FORWARDMOVING FORWARD

Carbon Dioxide Reduction by sector: “Five-labs Study”

UTILITY SECTORUTILITY SECTOR

costs of carbon-reduction estimated to be costs of carbon-reduction estimated to be positive-net investment requiredpositive-net investment required

Retrofitting power plants for natural gas Retrofitting power plants for natural gas instead of coalinstead of coal

Co-generationCo-generation RenewablesRenewables

BUILDINGS SECTORBUILDINGS SECTOR

Improved sensors and controls for better Improved sensors and controls for better management- react to energy prices in real management- react to energy prices in real timetime

Self-powered buildingsSelf-powered buildings Material development- thermal resistance of Material development- thermal resistance of

building shell, utilize environmental changesbuilding shell, utilize environmental changes Multi-functional appliancesMulti-functional appliances Advanced lighting systems- mixing artificial and Advanced lighting systems- mixing artificial and

natural lightnatural light

INDUSTRIAL SECTORINDUSTRIAL SECTOR

Includes manufacturing, agriculture, mining, Includes manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and construction and construction

Manufacturing~70% of industrial-sector energy Manufacturing~70% of industrial-sector energy consumption. About half of that comes iron and consumption. About half of that comes iron and steel, pulp and paper, and petroleum refiningsteel, pulp and paper, and petroleum refining

Retrofitting boilers for co-generationRetrofitting boilers for co-generation Industry specific improvements- coke-less steel Industry specific improvements- coke-less steel

production, carbon-less anode aluminum production, carbon-less anode aluminum productionproduction

Improved usage of biproducts- cement industryImproved usage of biproducts- cement industry

TRANSPORTATION SECTORTRANSPORTATION SECTOR

Reduced aerodynamic drag, lower rolling Reduced aerodynamic drag, lower rolling resistance of tires, decreased engine resistance of tires, decreased engine friction, leaner burning engines, and friction, leaner burning engines, and variable valve timing variable valve timing

Engines designed for higher fuel Engines designed for higher fuel economyeconomy

Fuel cellsFuel cells

METHANE REDUCTIONMETHANE REDUCTION

Natural gas production: vapor recovery in Natural gas production: vapor recovery in storage, additional flash separation storage, additional flash separation recovery, low-bleed NG pneumaticsrecovery, low-bleed NG pneumatics

Natural gas transmission: leak detection Natural gas transmission: leak detection and wrap composite repairs, specific and wrap composite repairs, specific equipment fittingequipment fitting

Ruminants: improved feed composition Ruminants: improved feed composition for better efficiencyfor better efficiency

NONOx x REDUCTIONREDUCTION

Adipic and nitric acid Production: Adipic and nitric acid Production: improved catalysts, catalytic improved catalysts, catalytic decomposition of tail gasesdecomposition of tail gases

Agriculture: alternative fertilizers, Agriculture: alternative fertilizers, cultivation practicescultivation practices

Energy: transportation improvementsEnergy: transportation improvements

SOURCESSOURCES

Kyoto Protocol, available at Kyoto Protocol, available at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdfhttp://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf

http://www.yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsfhttp://www.yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg99rpt/nitrous.html#industrialhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg99rpt/nitrous.html#industrial McCrann, Terry. “Global Warming’s Core Flaw.” Herald Times, February McCrann, Terry. “Global Warming’s Core Flaw.” Herald Times, February

16, 2005. 16, 2005. http://www.globalwarming.orghttp://www.globalwarming.org ““Economists Support Bush on Kyoto.” American Enterprise, Oct. 2001.Economists Support Bush on Kyoto.” American Enterprise, Oct. 2001. http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?

prd_id=160&msg_id=5377079&startrow=1&date=2005-02-04&do_alert=0prd_id=160&msg_id=5377079&startrow=1&date=2005-02-04&do_alert=0 ““Technologies to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Next Decade.” Technologies to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Next Decade.”

Physics Today, Nov. 2000Physics Today, Nov. 2000 http://www.coalinfo.net.cn/coalbed/meeting/2203/papers/naturalgas/http://www.coalinfo.net.cn/coalbed/meeting/2203/papers/naturalgas/

NG020.pdfNG020.pdf

QUESTIONSQUESTIONS

Is Kyoto realistic? Is it worth it, considering the Is Kyoto realistic? Is it worth it, considering the benefits? Are we sure of the benefits and do benefits? Are we sure of the benefits and do we need to be? What, if anything should the we need to be? What, if anything should the United States do?United States do?

Is legislation necessary?Is legislation necessary? How do you balance economic and How do you balance economic and

environmental concerns?environmental concerns? What is industry’s responsibility? What other What is industry’s responsibility? What other

technologies are being developed?technologies are being developed?