TO: Professor Eusebio Mujal-Leon FROM: Ben Turner SUBJECT: Final Paper, "Is Iraq Democratizing?" I. Introduction Iraq has launched from a "rogue state" to a major international geopolitical issue in six years as a result of American occupation. Despite political setbacks such as the Sunni parties withdrawing from past elections, a full-blown insurgency, a massively contracting economy, and lack of representation by key figures in Iraqi politics; Iraq has reduced violence, held a recent election and referendum, has signed a new Status of Forces Agreement, and appears to be on the path towards building a sustainable democracy. Is Iraq on this path to democratization now? How are the elite parties in Iraq structuring themselves and how well is this predicted by democratization theories? Will Iraq choose democracy or authoritarianism? Does it have a choice about its future, or will it be responding to geopolitical and regional pressures? It will be argued in this paper that Iraq is on a path towards being a longterm buffer state for stronger regional neighbors. Iraq will attempt to extricate itself from foreign influences that seek to use it as a buffer state against other players. The pressures will be strong for Iraq to seek national and internal stability as its paramount national interest, and thus an authoritarian government will rise up under the mantle of Shi'ite nationalism in order to protect Page 1 of 33
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TO: Professor Eusebio Mujal-Leon
FROM: Ben Turner
SUBJECT: Final Paper, "Is Iraq Democratizing?"
I. Introduction
Iraq has launched from a "rogue state" to a major international geopolitical
issue in six years as a result of American occupation. Despite political setbacks
such as the Sunni parties withdrawing from past elections, a full-blown insurgency,
a massively contracting economy, and lack of representation by key figures in Iraqi
politics; Iraq has reduced violence, held a recent election and referendum, has
signed a new Status of Forces Agreement, and appears to be on the path towards
building a sustainable democracy. Is Iraq on this path to democratization now?
How are the elite parties in Iraq structuring themselves and how well is this
predicted by democratization theories? Will Iraq choose democracy or
authoritarianism? Does it have a choice about its future, or will it be responding to
geopolitical and regional pressures?
It will be argued in this paper that Iraq is on a path towards being a
longterm buffer state for stronger regional neighbors. Iraq will attempt to
extricate itself from foreign influences that seek to use it as a buffer state against
other players. The pressures will be strong for Iraq to seek national and internal
stability as its paramount national interest, and thus an authoritarian government
will rise up under the mantle of Shi'ite nationalism in order to protect itself and the
Iraqi borders. Under threat of fractionalization, the authoritarian government will
attempt to strictly prevent the Kurds and Sunnis from separating or disengaging
from the nation.
As an extension, Iraqi democratization is a long way off. Iraq must achieve
autonomous security of its borders before it can hope to build the civil society
complex and secure enough to formalize and consolidate democracy. While Iraq
currently holds national and provincial elections, this is maintained primarily
Page 1 of 25
under the aegis of the American military -- under the veil, the Shi'ite-led
government is consolidating its power and waiting for American forces to leave.
All this said, there are also ways in which Iraq could avoid slipping back into
authoritarianism, consisting of major regional security agreements, reconciliation
among the major ethnic factions in Iraq, and leadership that desires true
democratization, pluralism, and representation for the national interest.
II. A History of Mastery and Occupation of Three Ethnic Cities
The region of Iraq has long suffered from foreign occupation, since after the
Sumerians of Mesopotamia lost their rule. It was the Persians who brought Islam,
and the Turks and Safavids traded the territory for a while. Eventually after rule
by both the Mamluks and the Ottomans, the UK came in in the modern era to
demarcate the borders of Iraq. Iraq has traditionally been made up of mainly two
cities, Baghdad in mid-Iraq and Basra in the southern tip of Iraq, a gateway to
Iraq's only sea port of Umm Qasr. But the UK added Mosul, a city-state up in the
north that had previously existed as a separate tribal region.
The result is that in today's Iraq, the borders are arbitrary and there are
three primary city-states within Iraq: Baghdad, Basra, and Mosul. Basra has
always been in a heavily Shi'ite-dominated area to the south (below the Shi'ite holy
cities of Najaf and Karbala), while Mosul is the gateway to the Turkoman and
Kurdish Sunni northern region of Iraq. Under Saddam Hussein's rule, Baghdad
was firmly Ba'athist, representing more of a bureaucratic totalitarian city than
anything else.
II.a. The Disruption of US Occupation
In 2003, the US invaded Iraq and remained there, and has since sloppily
occupied the country for 6 years under the auspices of democracy promotion. Eva
Bellin writes, in an article about American support of political reform in the Middle
East,Page 2 of 25
"In short, the ideal of democracy promotion will, at times, conflict
with the United States' core interests. Some inconsistency and
halfheartedness is thus an inevitable part of democracy promotion.
Recognition of this fact ought to recommend retreat to a more modest
agenda than that suggested by the Bush administration's rhetoric."1
Did the US even know what its core interests in Iraq were? Democratic
rule? A non-nuclear state? A non-failed state? After many foibles, such as
removing any Ba'ath members from government administration, installing
unknown politicians into the highest Iraqi government positions, and sanctioning
Shi'ite consolidation of power over the government and security forces, the US has
been presented with a series of "lesser-of-two-evils" choices in its pursuit of
democracy promotion, democratization, stability, and security.
The first major choice the US had to make was whether to support the
Shi'ite-dominated government, led by Nouri Al-Maliki, or try to break it down. The
official US policy was to support an Iraqi nationalist government so it stuck with
Maliki, even after he was found to have routinely rounded up Sunnis, allowed
sectarian conflict to clear Sunnis out of Shi'ite neighborhoods, and imprisoned and
tortured competitors in prisons to retain power.
The US also decided to arm and pay the Sunnis to stop attacking Americans,
a decision implemented by General David Petraeus and his senior advisors. This,
more than the Surge, led to a massive dropoff in violence to achieve Petraeus' goal
of building a security space to allow for political progress. As Thomas Ricks wrote
in his excellent book "The Gamble" about the years 2006-2008 in the Iraq War:
"Petraeus laid the groundwork for that approach in the letter he
issued to the troops as he left Iraq. While the initiative had been retaken, he
expressed disappointment about the political state of Iraq. “Many of us had
hoped this summer would be a time of tangible political progress at the
national level,” he wrote. “One of the justifications for the surge, after all,
was that it would help create the space for Iraqi leaders to tackle the tough
questions and agree on key pieces of ‘national reconciliation’ legislation. It
1 Bellin, Eva. "Democratization and Its Discontents", Foreign Affairs, July/August 2008. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64462/eva-bellin/democratization-and-its-discontents?page=show
Page 3 of 25
has not worked out as we had hoped.” It would be hard to charge that he was
being rosy about Iraq."2
It is unfortunate, however, that the US, by virtue of its occupation, has put
Iraq on a track far from democratic consolidation, as now Iraq is a weak nation
with little economic output and many outsiders hoping to carve out influence
within its borders. The US, occupying a land where tribal relations dominate, is
the strongest tribe, as Bing West titled his book about the American occupation of
Iraq.
But the US has had to ratchet back its plans in Iraq, seeking stability instead
of democratization for the time being. Tom Ricks:
"There was good reason for this quiet ratcheting down. As Steven
Metz, an astute strategic analyst, put it, encouraging democracy was at odds
with the larger goal of stability: “Our current strategy is based on the
delusion that we can have stable, or modulated democratization,” he said.
“Few things are more destabilizing and prone to chaos than democratization.
I think we can have either democratization or stabilization. The issue is
whether we can tolerate several decades of often-violent instability ..."3
There seems to be acceptance among the senior leaders on the Iraq mission
that democratization does not play well with stability, and so the emphasis for
American forces in Iraq has significantly changed.
II.b. Maelstrom of Forces Awaiting American Departure
At the same time, both the Americans and other foreigners understand that
the American military protection of Iraq is drawing down soon under President
Obama. This has manifested itself in several interesting ways. For starters,
Americans have changed from a counter-terrorist, quick-strike policy to one of
counter-insurgency, or protecting the population to convince it to work with them.
2 Ricks, Thomas. "The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008", Penguin Press HC, 2009, Kindle version, highlight location 4812-4816.
3 Ricks, Kindle version, highlight location 3257-3260.Page 4 of 25
Al-Qaeda for its part has refocused its efforts onto Pakistan and the FATA
provinces in Afghanistan/Pakistan as the US has taken measures to ruin Al-Qaeda's
operations in Iraq. But there is still a vast power vacuum in Iraq, and in
particularly a paranoia and sense of fear among Iraqi Sunnis about Shi'ite
domination, so Al-Qaeda will probably be able to safely re-enter the country once
American support leaves; the Iraqi security services are just too weak to catch
them.
The Iranians have a large stake in the future of Iraq. While they are content
to let the US worry about securing Iraq, Iran certainly has a stake in making sure
Iraq does not fall apart as well. Iran was a former enemy of Iraq's during the days
of Saddam Hussein. While both countries were predominantly Shi'ite, Iran is
Persian and Iraq is Arab, and the twain shall never meet. Furthermore, Hussein
was a secular Ba'athist who acted Sunni in order to keep his influence with the
Iraqi elites. This pseudo-Sunni/Ba'athist elite was extremely rich and was given all
the nicest property and resources that Hussein could offer. In Hussein's absence
(and indeed during his hanging), the Shi'ites have emerged as the strongarm
majority party in Iraq.
Iran, for its desires, has long sought to co-opt Iraq. It has sent agents, spies,
ambassadors, and more to provide support, intelligence, EFPs (explosively-formed
penetrators, and weapons to the Iraqis for resisting outside influence and to
consolidate Shi'ite power. Iran, knowing it can cow its now primarily Shi'ite
neighbor into working with it, if not fully becoming clientelist, now has a buffer
against possible competitors to Iranian power.
Iran has downplayed its Persianness and has advocated to Iraq its
Shi'iteness against threatening Wahhabist violent terrorists under the flag of Al-
Qaeda. This is a policy in direct contrast to Saudi's diminishing influence in Iraq.
Juan Cole, who writes a superb blog as a University of Michigan history professor
and expert in Middle Eastern politics and affairs, said in a blog post:
"Al-Maliki, a Shiite, was snubbed by Saudi King Abdullah, who refused
to meet him on the grounds that he had reneged on his pledge to reconcile
with the Sunni Arabs of Iraq. Al-Maliki's Da`wa Party had angered the Saudis
Page 5 of 25
a couple of years ago by launching a protest movement against Wahhabism,
the established branch of Islam in the Saudi kingdom."4
Its soft and covert power has brought it many seats in the Iraqi Parliament,
a pliant Maliki government, the ability to tell Muqtada Al-Sadr what to do, and
economic opportunity for Iraqi goods to win over the business elite. The US is
playing right into Iran's hands.
Muqtada Al-Sadr, a constant thorn in the US's side, has told his militias to
stand down for the time being in the northeast neighborhoods of Baghdad (to
include the slum, Sadr City) and in Basra and to some degree the other Shi'ite
cities of Karbala and Najaf. Al-Sadr, not a cleric of religious erudition, exists as a
populist strongman whose Shi'ite militias have been able to infiltrate Iraqi security
forces and foster a nationalist, anti-American agenda. But what is most interesting
is this sense of nationalism Al-Sadr has, which can be used to fight off Persian
influence, or as Tom Ricks explains:
"Indeed, given that Sadr is more of an Iraqi nationalist than many of
the people the U.S. government has supported in Iraq, it isn’t clear why the
U.S. government holds that diminishing him will restrain Iranian influence in
Iraq. “That’s the million-dollar question,” said Capt. Jeanne Hull, a military
intelligence veteran who during 2008 was on her third tour in Iraq, all of
them working for Petraeus. She also was almost certainly the only soldier
serving in Iraq who was simultaneously doing research for a doctoral
dissertation for Princeton University. She had been assigned to work on
Sadrist issues on this most recent tour. “I don’t think we’ve looked at it
deeply enough to know if backing the GOI [government of Iraq] is the same
as backing Iranian interests.”5
Juan Cole tried to explain the sensitivity of Iranians and Iraqis in
determining their differences and similarities:
4 Cole, Juan. "Fadl Still Blockaded; Truck Bomb in Mosul; Doha Summit Fails to Unify Arab voices", Informed Comment blog, 31 Mar 09. http://www.juancole.com/2009/03/fadl-still-blockaded-truck-bomb-in.html
5 Ricks, Kindle version, highlight location 6178-6184.Page 6 of 25
"The Arab League Conference in Doha, Qatar has wrapped up,
and it too had implications for Sunni-Shiite reconciliation (or lack
thereof) inside Iraq.
Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that the Arab League had initially
planned to hold its next meeting in Baghdad, but the continued poor
security in that city has dissuaded the organization, which will meet in
Libya instead. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki protested the
switch. (It is likely that the move came at least in part in response to
the identification among member states with the Sunni Arab
population of Fadl District, which was being besieged by Shiite Iraqi
troops as the conference unfolded. Most Arab League member states
are strongly Sunni and many see Shiite Islam as Persian rather than
Arab--which is untrue and unfair.) "6
III. Is Iraq Any Longer a State?
This paper argues that Iraq is losing its coherence as a state. While the
appearances of Iraq are those of Wolfgang Merkel's "defective democracy", in
which the country has elections but remains illiberal (with few institutions) and
delegative, pressures on Iraq threaten to rip it apart once the American forces
leave. It can be said that these cleavages have already begun.
Robert Baer, a former CIA officer, argues that Iraq is already no more:
"Between March 20 and April 9, 2003, allied forces obliterated
the state of Iraq, a nation that will never be put back together in any
form resembling the old Iraq. What the war planners didn’t
understand was that Iraq was an army rather than a country. In
destroying the Iraqi army, the allies destroyed Iraq."7
6 Cole, Juan. "Fadl Still Blockaded; Truck Bomb in Mosul; Doha Summit Fails to Unify Arab voices", Informed Comment blog, 31 Mar 09. http://www.juancole.com/2009/03/fadl-still-blockaded-truck-bomb-in.html
7 Baer, Robert. "The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower", Crown, 2008. Kindle version, highlight location 503-505.
Page 7 of 25
III.a. Iraq as a Buffer State
Geopolitically, Iraq is the focus point for the Middle East. This strategic
position must have played a role in why the architects of the American invasion
chose Iraq: if Iraq could democratize, it would provide a beacon of freedom to the
rest of the Middle East. 8
But Iraq also is a buffer between two very competitive ideological states,
Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both are the primary funders and advocates for Sunni and
Shi'ite religions, respectively. Iraq has been unleashed from its quasi-Sunni rule to
become a majority Shi'ite country, and this will threaten the Saudis who also feel
pressure within the failing state of Pakistan and a trapped pseudo-Kurdistan.
Iraq has no natural borders and thus is prone to smuggling, refugees
leaving, and other setbacks of an extremely porous border.
It is in Iran's best interest to keep Iraq functioning to give Iran a healthy
block of space to its western flank. The Saudis are worried about their position as
the chief oil supplier:
"The American backers of the war claimed that with massive
investment Iraq’s production could be taken to 6 million barrels a day. If
they’re right, and if Iran proceeds with its de facto annexation of Iraq and its
oil, the combination of Iran’s current production of 4.21 million barrels a day
with Iraq’s 6 million would put Iran within range of becoming the world’s
largest producer, ahead of Saudi Arabia."9
III.b. Will the Kurds and Sunnis Remain Part of Iraq?
The northern tip of Iraq, Kurdistan, is made up of Sunni Kurds who seek
autonomy of their own while being trapped within the national borders of Iraq. To
8 CNN.com. "Bush, in Europe, to urge support for Iraq", CNN.com, 21 Feb 05. http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/02/20/bush.europe/index.html
9 Baer, Kindle version, highlight location 419-422.Page 8 of 25
some degree this means that Kurdistan falls under American protection, as the
Americans see Kurdistan as the only truly successful and pacified area of Iraq. But
because of tribal conflicts, Kurdistan is also a target for Turkish oppression and
Iraqi governmental desire for Kurdistan's vast oil resources.
Explains an article on Kurdistan:
"Saddam had placed Kirkuk outside the Kurdish region of northern
Iraq, which has enjoyed wide-ranging autonomy since 1991. But Iraqi Kurds,
many of whom see Kirkuk's oil wealth as vital to the future viability of their
region, have called for the province to be part of their autonomous region.
Iraq's parliament has proposed evenly dividing powers in the local
parliament between Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen but the Kurds bitterly oppose
the plan, pointing to their superior numbers. Under the Iraqi constitution, a
referendum was to have been held on the future status of the city but the
vote has been repeatedly delayed in recent years amid ongoing demographic
concerns."10
Kurds aside, General Petraeus' gamble to buy off the Sunnis has worked.
The Sunnis now protect themselves against Al-Qaeda and have cash to provide for
their internal stability. But the Sunnis clearly aren't happy with their standing in
Iraq, now that they are not only the weaker party now, but on top of that a
demographic minority (estimates put it at about 65% Shi'ite, 35% Sunni in Iraq11).
Some disagreed with this plan, as Tom Ricks writes:
"Not all American military officials were comfortable with the
approach, worrying that the short-term security gain obtained would create
long-term political problems. “What we’re doing is creating a secessionist
state out west,” said a senior U.S. military intelligence official. “The Anbar
tribes will be capable of keeping order, and also of keeping a Shiite-
dominated army out of Anbar.” In other words, argued retired Army Col.
10 Associated Press. "Iraq MPs request more time for Kirkuk vote report", google.com/hostednews, 15 Apr 09. http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jC4rIrpGTvgIPZXqJf5eefVV3JXw
11 CIA World Factbook. "Iraq", 23 Apr 09. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/iz.html
Page 9 of 25
Andrew Bacevich, the Americans were avoiding military defeat by embracing
political failure."12
And not everyone thinks this will solely be political failure:
"John McCreary, a veteran analyst for the Defense Intelligence
Agency, predicted in September 2008 that the arrangement imposed by the
U.S. government on Iraqi factions would unravel, likely with a Shiite attack
on the U.S. presence. The Americans have imposed power sharing on Iraq’s
factions, he said, and that should worry us for several reasons. First, it
produces what looks like peace but isn’t. Second, in such situations
eventually one of the factions seeks to break out of the arrangement. “Thus,”
McCreary wrote, “power sharing is always a prelude to violence,” usually
after the force imposing it withdraws."13
The United States, now a paymaster both for the Sunnis and for the Shi'ite
government, is playing both sides off against each other, hoping for peaceful
reconciliation. But Maliki's government has already been jailing Sunni political
challengers and installing Shi'ites in every level of government. The Sunnis, for
their part, will turn on the Americans if their pay stops coming in, and the Saudis,
seeking to re-establish their own buffer, will certainly invest a lot of money into
arming the Sunnis and destabilizing the increasingly centralized Shi'ite Maliki
government in Iraq. The Sunnis feel marginalized with little sway on the Shi'ite
government. Indeed, Maliki has taken steps to retain a policy of excluding
"Ba'athists", code for Sunnis.14
And, lastly, will the Shi'ites remain part of Iraq, for that matter? Robert
Baer pessimistically adds:
"Yet Basra and its surrounding area are not really part of Iraq
anymore. Quietly, without firing a single shot, the Iranians have effectively
annexed the entire south, fully one-third of Iraq. In Basra today, the
17 Cole, Juan. "Centralizing Parties advancing in Iraq's Provincial Election Results", Informed Comment blog, 02 Feb 09. http://www.juancole.com/2009/02/centralizing-parties-advancing-in-iraqs.html
18 Merkel, Wolfgang. "Embedded and Defective Democracies," Democratization, Dec 04. pp. 33-58.Page 12 of 25
the rule of law is damaged, affecting the core of liberal self-understanding, namely
the equal freedom of all individuals."19 Iraq is, if nothing else, firmly in the hands
of Shi'ites.
IV.a.i. Government Composition
While elections have been fairly okay, this has been under the watchful eye
of the US military and international observers. Behind the scenes, as noted before,
al-Maliki has been consolidating his power, as Juan Cole describes:
"Al-Zaman writing in Arabic says that Iraqi troops continued for a
third straight day their siege of the Sunni Fadl distrinct [sic]. The paper
alleged that diseases are starting to spread among women and children
because of the blockade and curfew. The Sunni Arab Awakening Council in
Fadl was accused of trying to revive the banned Baath Party, and its leader
was arested [sic], provoking an uprising. But the Iraqi government's
crackdown on the Fadl district raised fears or provoked protests among other
Sunni Arabs. The Awakening Council leader in Baquba, Diyala province to
the east, said that he would stop fighting extremists for the government if
Adil Mashhadani,the Fadl Council leader, was not released. Meanwhile, US
officers were frantically calling their Sunni contacts and reassuring them
that the US would go to bat for them and they would not be left to the mercy
of the Shiite militias."20
Maliki's executive branch dominates Iraqi politics on the national level.
Sectarian and ethnic based parties dominate governorate politics. Rumors of
government crackdowns on non-Shi'ites continue to circulate, although it is now
not as bad as in 2005-2006 in Iraq, when the militias and local police were very
brazenly operating as one outfit, and when prisons were unveiled through
investigative journalism to show systematic torture of political prisoners much like
Abu Ghraib or Saddam Hussein's totalitarian political oppression practices.
19 Merkel, p. 49.
20 Cole, Juan. "Fadl Still Blockaded; Truck Bomb in Mosul; Doha Summit Fails to Unify Arab voices", Informed Comment blog, 31 Mar 09. http://www.juancole.com/2009/03/fadl-still-blockaded-truck-bomb-in.html
Page 13 of 25
That all said, there are signs that Maliki may be changing his colors as he
becomes more experienced in his position. Tom Ricks fairly gives Maliki praise for
taking on militias in a large battle in Basra to bring it back into Baghdad's orbit:
“Basra was a colossal failure in execution, but the decision to attack
was a key step forward for the government of Iraq,” concluded Brig. Gen.
Dan Allyn, Gen. Austin’s chief of staff at the American military headquarters
for day-to-day operations in Iraq. “They chose to take on Shia militias for the
first time. That was a courageous decision not properly prepared for.”21
...
"In military terms, the outcome was ambiguous. “It was totally
unclear who won or lost on the ground,” said Lemons, the Marine sergeant.
But in political terms, Basra was a clear victory for Maliki and his army, he
and others said. 'Every Iraqi I have spoken to since then about how the prime
minister did claims Maliki proved he is a strong leader willing to crack JAM.'”
This was a remarkable change because Maliki was between a rock and a
hard place, having to deal with an increasingly autonomous Basra that threatened
his national government, using military force against Shi'ites, many influenced by
or birthed by Iranians whose parent government would prefer Maliki not intervene.
This move hints that Maliki has more ambitions than simply being an Iranian
proxy, but where do his interests lie, in toto? Was he trying to impress American
military masters, retain a hold of his sole port city for personal or national
ambitions, or do his preferences vary?
At any rate, it was an unprecedented victory for the new Iraq, from a central
government's point of view:
"In June 2008, Austin, the new corps commander, noted that, “For the
first time, the government has positive control of the three strategic nodes—
Basra, Mosul, and Baghdad.” It was indeed an accomplishment, even if it
came during the sixth year of the war. At Umm Qasr, Iraq’s only port, just
21 Ricks, Kindle version, highlight location 5498-5507.Page 14 of 25
south of Basra, the amount of cargo arriving daily tripled from the spring to
the summer."22
Maliki may have succeeded in unifying the country under a centralized
government. What will he do next, though? Maliki's roots were in below-average
politics before he was thrust into the national political system. He is also not
tremendously popular within Iraq. He has a tenuous hold on the various armed
forces within Iraq, despite his purging of non-Shi'ites from the government. It is
likely he will be voted out and quickly forgotten.
On Thomas Ricks' blog, he quotes an American Capitol Hill staffer in 2009.
"Maliki got votes because people saw him as a strong leader (justice
and security) and because he's done a reasonable job spreading money
around through tribal support councils, hand-picked ministers with buckets
of cash to spend after certain conflicts (Basra, Mosul, Sadr City, couple other
places). ISCI currently holds the keys to future funds because they control
the Finance Ministry (Bayan Jabr, a lovely sociopath-not sure if you've ever
had the pleasure of meeting him. He was the Interior Minister who had
torture chambers in the basement. He got punished by being promoted to
Finance Minister) and we are already seeing signs that, ostensibly due to
budget cuts, support for Maliki's tribal councils and a couple other initiatives
is being reduced. (By the way, a fun side effect of this is that the budget cuts
have also provided an excuse to not absorb more SOI into the security forces.
Not that huge numbers were going in already, but that trickle has generally
stopped)."23
Despite all this, it is wise to keep Michael McFaul's humble words in
mind when thinking about Maliki's and the government's future in Iraq:
"Whether leaders seize greatness or have it thrust upon them by
circumstance is not a question that these cases [former Soviet states
discussed by McFaul] will settle."24 "After the breakthrough, it seems as if
23 Ricks, Thomas. "Iraq, the unraveling (VI): looming intra-Shia violence?", The Best Defense blog, 24 Apr 09. http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/04/24/iraq_the_unraveling_vi_looming_intra_shia_violence
24 McFaul, Michael. "Transitions from Post-Communism", Journal of Democracy, Vol. 16, #3, July 05, p. 17.Page 15 of 25
no other leader could have united the opposition and toppled the regime.
But this 'fact' only seems obvious after success."
IV.a.ii. Opposition Parties
Once again, politics are dominated by Shi'ite-Kurdish-Sunni divides. The
Kurds seek an autonomous state to the north and have considered themselves to
be independent for quite a while now, as 60 Minutes reported, "The Kurds are very
big on the trappings of statehood. It’s as if they’re eager to prove that they exist.
They have their own 175,000-man Army, the pesh merga, which means "those who
face death." When you arrive in Erbil, immigration officers give your passport a
Kurdish stamp. And if you want to see the Iraqi flag, don’t come to Kurdistan. It
has been banned."
Once again, foreign influences step in, as 60 Minutes continues:
"The Kurds have a saying: no friends but the mountains. There are 30
million Kurds in the world, the largest nation without a state. But only five
million reside inside Iraq’s borders. The rest are in Iran, Syria and primarily
Turkey. There are so many Kurds in Turkey that the Turks are afraid that an
independent Kurdish state would lead to unrest; they are dead set against it.
"So Kurdish leaders believe that, at least for the time being, the
answer is federalism, a soft partition of Iraq into three parts. Kurdistan in the
north, a Sunni state in the middle and a Shiite region to the south, with
Baghdad as only a nominal capital.
"While Barzani and Kurdistan may be paving the way for such a
division, the American government doesn’t want partition of any kind, no
matter what it’s called. The Bush administration and the U.S. military see
Kurdistan not as a shining new nation but as a shining example to the rest of
a united Iraq."25
25 Schorn, Daniel. "Kurdistan: The Other Iraq", 60 Minutes, 05 Aug 07. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/02/16/60minutes/main2486679.shtml
Page 16 of 25
American policy dictates national unity for Iraq and retaining its
current borders, while Turkey sees Kurdistan as a potential destabilizer for
their own country, and it has often "violated" Kurdistan's border with the
US's permission (since it sees Kurdistan as Iraqi territory) to go after
terrorists.
The Kurds have oil, which is a trump card because everyone wants them at
the table. The Sunnis out west do not enjoy such a benefit since much of Al-Anbar
is desert, even though some oil reserves have recently been discovered.26 The
Sunnis are in a bind because they are outnumbered and have little leverage
without external financing from Saudi and the US.
What the Sunnis fear most has yet to happen: ethnic cleansing once
American forces leave. This is a legitimate concern that will be covered more
later.
IV.a.iii. The Military
The Iraqi military is more closely-aligned with the US military at this point,
although Maliki has nominal control over them. The US funds and trains the Iraqi
military and has done a fairly good job of professionalizing it. But such a process
is not sustainable and once Americans leave, the Iraqi military will be in disarray.
Maliki's priority will be to try to assume control of it immediately. However,
"Maliki's problem is that he really only directly controls a couple
things-the Special Forces (CTB) and the Operations Cells that have been set
up in Baghdad, Basra, Mosul, and I think one or two other places. But really,
at the end of the day, he only controls the Special Forces and two, maybe
three, Army divisions who's commanders he has on speed dial on his cell
phone. The rest of the Army is Kurd or has heavy levels of former Badr
Brigade folks or whatever, and the Interior Minister is developing into a
political rival. So, his main avenues of response are likely to be to try to
leverage US aid (and the embassy and MNF-I are being a little leery of this
so as not to seem to be picking winners) or to go after some of his opponents.
26 Roggio, Bill. "Oil, Anbar and the Insurgency", The Long War Journal blog, 21 Feb 07. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/02/oil_anbar_and_the_in.php
Page 17 of 25
There have been a couple raids and heavy handed use of Iraqi Special
Forces, and some of it seems to have been aimed at Maliki's political
opponents, including ISCI supporters/officials (it's a little unclear)."27
IV.a.iv. Missing Players
Most striking about the political system in Iraq is that the most influential
people within Iraq are not represented within the current government. If one
traveled to Iraq and talked to people on the street in 2005-2006 (when this author
was there), the Iraqi Shi'ites, soldiers and civilians, would ask you whether you
knew who Sistani was and how great he was. Posters of Sadr would line the walls
of souks in Sadr City, the slum of Baghdad. Sunni tribal leaders would often stay
hidden among their people to avoid targeting by American military and Al-Qaeda
alike. Ba'athists have been blackballed completely.
How can Iraq make a serious claim at being a consolidating democracy
when so many of the key figures involved in shaping Iraqi identity and opinion are
ignored or boycotting participation? The reality is a bit more nuanced.
"Al-Zaman [The Times of Baghdad] reports in Arabic that that Grand
Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the spiritual leader of Iraq's Shiites, was asked by
Agence France Presse if he supported the return of members of the former
Baath party to public life. He is said to have replied that this matter is
governed by the Iraqi Constitution, which must be obeyed. (The constitution
outlaws the Baath Party). The AFP question was prompted by statements
made by Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa after his meeting with
Sistani a couple of weeks ago. Moussa implied that Sistani favored national
reconciliation with all Iraqis. Sistani in his reply appeared to repudiate
Moussa's report of their conversation and to underline his own commitment
to continued debaathification."
"At the same time, the Islamic Mission Party (Da`wa) led by Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki called for the criminalization of the Baath Party, on
the grounds that it issued a law in 1980 making it a capital crime to belong to
27 Ricks, Thomas. "Iraq, the unraveling (VI): looming intra-Shia violence?", The Best Defense blog, 24 Apr 09. http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/04/24/iraq_the_unraveling_vi_looming_intra_shia_violence
Page 18 of 25
the Da'wa, and carried out numerous pogroms against Da'wa members. This
call appears to envision going beyond firing Baathists and forbidding them to
hold political office to actually prosecuting them for party membership. Since
Sunnis were disproportionately present in the Baath Party (though there
were plenty of Shiites in it, too), any such step would lay an especially heavy
burden on the Sunni Arabs."28
It is interesting that Sistani takes the constitutional viewpoint. However, him
being an Iranian Shi'ite, it would be in his best interest to continue a policy of de-
Ba'athication. The US has attempted to make overtures to him but he has avoided
any contact with the Americans on Iraqi nationalism and anti-occupational
grounds:
"Ayatollah Ali Sistani is very roughly the pope of Shia Islam. This is by
virtue of the fact that Sistani has the most followers among Shia Islam’s
largest subsect, “Twelver Shia,” so called because of its tenet that the
prophet was followed by twelve divinely chosen successors. About 80 percent
of Shia follow Sistani’s spiritual guidance. Generally viewed as apolitical, a
moderate, and a rival to the Iranian clerics—a “quietist” cleric—he was the
man the United States and Britain had pinned their hopes on to line up Iraq’s
Shia behind the occupation and shepherd them into building a modern,
secular, democratic Iraqi state. Our ayatollah on our white horse."29
So Sistani, surprisingly, has not proven as useful as initially thought.
"Having had almost no contact with average Iraqis, Sistani comes
across as cloistered, aloof, and elitist—in other words, little better than an
exile. He may be more credible than Ahmed Chalabi, but the Iraqis can’t help
but look at Sistani as a foreigner. Sistani isn’t as powerful as the raw number
of his followers suggests."30
28 Cole, Juan. "Fadl Still Blockaded; Truck Bomb in Mosul; Doha Summit Fails to Unify Arab voices", Informed Comment blog, 31 Mar 09. http://www.juancole.com/2009/03/fadl-still-blockaded-truck-bomb-in.html