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Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of Social Distance Paul S. Lambert (Univ. Stirling) Dave Griffiths (Univ. Stirling) Erik Bihagen (Univ. Stockholm) Richard Zijdeman (Intl. Inst. Social History, Amsterdam) Presentation to the Radical Statistics conference, Manchester, 8 March 2014 Sponsored by the ERSC Secondary Data Analysis Initiative Phase 1 project ‘Is Britain pulling apart? Analysis of generational change in social distanceshttp://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart http://www.twitter.com/pullingapart http://pullingapartproject.wordpress.com/ 1
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Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Jul 24, 2020

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Page 1: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of Social

Distance Paul S. Lambert (Univ. Stirling)

Dave Griffiths (Univ. Stirling)

Erik Bihagen (Univ. Stockholm)

Richard Zijdeman (Intl. Inst. Social History, Amsterdam)

Presentation to the Radical Statistics conference, Manchester, 8 March 2014

Sponsored by the ERSC Secondary Data Analysis Initiative Phase 1 project ‘Is Britain pulling apart? Analysis of generational change in social distances’ http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart http://www.twitter.com/pullingapart http://pullingapartproject.wordpress.com/ 1

Page 2: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Studying patterns in Social Distance

1) Introduction: trends in social inequality and social distance

2) Social distance patterns in Britain for markers of lifestyle

3) Social distance patterns in Britain in socio-economic inequalities

2 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 3: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

A Divided Britain?

• Popular Social Science publications portray Britain as divided, but where is the dividing line? – Bankers vs rest (Hutton, 2011) – Politicians/companies vs rest (Peston, 2008) – Rest vs working classes (Jones, 2011)

• Strong public debate, often lacking evidence, on scale of social divisions

• Ubiquity of discourse leads to perception amongst informed public that Britain is divided (& dividing)

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 3

Page 4: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Britain’s divides

are not just economic!

Culture / lifestyle inequalities (e.g. Bennett 2009, Savage et al. 2013)

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 4

In our favoured terminology, it’s interesting to investigate ‘consequential gaps’ by ‘social groups’

Page 5: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Methodological issues

• Summarising social groups is obviously problematic

• Consistent meaning/coding

• Change over context in relative meaning

• We often use scaling of categories and/or devices that preserve detail

• Evaluating a temporal trend isn’t easy either!

• Need for multiple time points

• Tools for evaluating trends

• E.g., testing whether trends in statistics fit best to stability, linear, quadratic shape

5

0.2

.4.6

.8

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980Birth cohort

CAMSIS RGSC EGP

CAMSIS RGSC EGP Income

Data from the 'Slow degrees' pooled survey dataset - see Lambert et al. (2007). N = 72509. Points are correlation statistics for father-child association, 5 year surveys / 10 year birth cohorts.

Ages 25 to 80. Men only.

Social mobility in Britain by year of birth (splines)

no qfapprenticeshipno qfno qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

no qf

other qf

no qfapprenticeship

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

no qfno qfno qfapprenticeshipapprenticeshipno qf

other qf

apprenticeshipno qfno qf

other qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qfother qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeshipno qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qf

apprenticeship

other qf

apprenticeship

other qfother qf

apprenticeship

other qfother qf

apprenticeship

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

other qf

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levelsgce a levelsgce a levelsgce a levelsgce a levels

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

gce a levelsgce a levels

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

higher degree

first degree

other higher qf

first degree

other higher qfother higher qf

first degree

other higher qfother higher qfother higher qf

higher degree

first degreefirst degree

higher degree

commercial qf, no o levels

higher degree

other higher qf

higher degree

first degreefirst degreefirst degree

other higher qfother higher qfother higher qf

first degree

higher degree

first degree

commercial qf, no o levels

higher degreehigher degree

nursing qfother higher qf

higher degree

teaching qf

higher degree

teaching qfteaching qfteaching qfteaching qf

other higher qf

teaching qfteaching qf

first degree

commercial qf, no o levels

nursing qfnursing qf

teaching qfteaching qfteaching qf

commercial qf, no o levels

teaching qf

nursing qfnursing qf

higher degree

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levels

first degree

teaching qf

commercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levels

higher degree

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levels

nursing qfnursing qfnursing qfnursing qfnursing qf

no qf

other qf

no qfno qfno qfno qf

other qf

no qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

no qf

other qfother qf

no qfapprenticeship

other qf

no qfno qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeshipapprenticeship

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

no qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

no qf

other qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qfother qf

apprenticeship

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

other qf

apprenticeshipapprenticeshipapprenticeship

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

nursing qf

gce o levels or equiv

commercial qf, no o levels

gce a levels

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levels

gce o levels or equiv

commercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levels

gce a levels

commercial qf, no o levels

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

commercial qf, no o levels

gce o levels or equiv

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levels

gce a levels

commercial qf, no o levels

nursing qf

gce a levelsgce a levels

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levels

gce o levels or equiv

nursing qfnursing qf

gce a levels

nursing qf

gce a levelsgce a levels

nursing qf

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

commercial qf, no o levels

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levels

nursing qfnursing qf

gce a levels

first degreefirst degree

other higher qf

higher degree

other higher qfother higher qf

first degree

other higher qf

higher degree

first degreefirst degree

other higher qfother higher qf

teaching qf

higher degree

other higher qf

teaching qfteaching qfteaching qfteaching qf

other higher qfother higher qf

first degree

teaching qf

higher degree

first degree

higher degree

other higher qf

teaching qf

higher degreehigher degree

teaching qfteaching qfteaching qf

higher degreehigher degree

first degree

other higher qfother higher qf

teaching qf

first degree

higher degree

first degreefirst degree

higher degree

first degree

higher degree

teaching qf

Dim

1

Dim 2 or CS

Husband's education Wife's education

Own dim1-CAMSIS Spouse dim1-CAMSIS

Page 6: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Are we really interested in inequalities, or in trends in inequalities?

• It’s important to study inequality regardless of temporal trends!

• Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change – Work, leisure, housing, family

– Education, the internet, family formation, health, pollution

• Many studies highlight social change in the distribution of income, deprivation, education, health, etc – Not all evidence points the same way, but common view that polarisation has

risen slightly since 2000, & will rise further (e.g. ETUI 2012; Dorling 2011; Gibbons et al. 2005)

– Stories about social inequalities between some social groups are more varied (cf. Finney and Simpson 2009; Evans &Tilley, 2011; Jivrav 2012)

• Plenty of interesting theories of social change or stability – …E.g. Bourdieu 1977; Marks 2014; Erikson and Goldthorpe 2010

– …French pessimism; American optimism; English diffidence…

6

Page 7: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Studying ‘consequential gaps’ between ‘social groups’

• Where the groups sit in the social structure may often be shaped by correlated demographic/unimportant differences – e.g. age, region and ethnicity

– changes in position over time might be conflated with cohort related specificities (though that could be ok)

• One alternative is to study instead the social position as realised through the enduring social organisation reflected in social interactions – Social support and connections central to our lives, and people use

social contacts to reproduce their circumstances and society itself (…e.g. Lauman 1973, Christakis and Fowler 2012…)

Leads to focusing on ‘social distance’

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 7

Page 8: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

‘Social distance’

• Generically, social distance = how far away A is from B, on the basis of {likely} levels of social contact

• Contact levels assessed through measurable social interactions (friendship, marriage, family)

• A and B are usually social units; we typically see several empirical dimensions that characterise the pattern of social contacts

• Previous research on social distance between occupational categories (e.g. www.camsis.stir.ac.uk ; Lauman & Guttman 1966; Chan 2010)

Social distance = social structure that is revealed through analysing ties 8

Page 9: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Why study social relations, social connections and social distance?

(b) Social structure as defined by social distance is revealing Interaction structure not identical to other structures and of theoretical interest (?the trace of social reproduction)

May be particular connections of interest (e.g. bridging ties)

Info. on mechanisms of inequality

9 0 1 2 3 4

Other

Plant/machine op.

Sales

Services

Craft

Clerical/sec.

Assoc. prof./tech.

Professional

Manag./Admin

Source: Analysis of married males in BHPS. Scores mean standardised plus 2.

SID score (spouses job)

Income score

(a) Consequential individual level outcomes correlate data on alters Strong empirical effects of spouses, parents,

friends, social capital, etc

Bivariate correlation*100 to… (UKHLS 2009) (ul=sig. effect net of own characteristic)

Inc. Health GHQ Green

Spouse has degree

21 16 5 14

Father’s job 15 14 3 9

Page 10: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Why study social distance?

…Also some recent innovations in the area covering data and methods…

• Evolution of relevant methods of network analysis, multilevel modelling, & association modelling

• Complex contemporary datasets increasingly allow reconstruction of data about social connections

• Current household sharers from household level datasets

• Previous household sharers (& their new alters) from longitudinal household datasets

• Proxy questions on alters on certain new (& old) datasets

• ‘Reconstitutions’ with administrative data e.g. using information on shared households/family/institutions

• New wave of interest in proxy questions on social connections, e.g. lifestyle questions; position generators

10 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 11: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

-> today’s data sources

• UK data on friends and families – Using proxy data from social surveys (questions on friends)

• 1972 Nuffield; 1974 SSGB; 1991-2004 BHPS; c2011 UKHLS

– BHPS household sharer data (current or previous sharer)

– UKHLS household sharer data (current sharer)

• UK and international data on spouses – GHS household sharer data (spouse) (1972-2004) [ONS, 2007]

– LFS household sharer data (spouse) (1997-2013)

– IPUMS-I records on self and spouse using, for convenience, harmonised measures of occupations (ISCO 1-dig), education, ethnicity and religion

– Survey data with records on spouses from European Social Survey and ISSP

11 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 12: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

-> today’s methods

• Descriptive tools for summarising patterns of social interaction between social groups and over time – Correspondence analysis / association modelling to identify subsidiary

dimension structures

– Social network analysis techniques to highlight patterns of connections and their changes

– Loglinear modelling of the volume of connections as a function of type and time

• Descriptive tools for summarising long-run social change in patterns of social distance – Cohort /time period, and cross-national, trends in association patterns

(homogamy, homophily)

– Model fit evaluations contrasting observed and predicted trends

12 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 13: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

2) Social distance patterns in Britain for markers of lifestyle

13

Daily Mail

Financial Times

Other

Daily Mirror/Record

Independent

Daily Telegraph

Sun

Guardian

Times

Daily Star

Daily Express

Regional

Dim

en

sio

n 2

(13

%)

Dimension 1 (14%)

1st 2 dimensions of social distance between newspaper readers (BHPS analysis of spouses; model includes ‘diagonals’)

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 14: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Change over time? BHPS Correlations between newspaper readership dimension scores and other measures, by age groups

Dim 1 (newsp) Indv CAMSIS (most recent job)

All (n=9409)

Pre-1960 (n=3156)

Post-1960 (n=3046)

All Pre-1960 Post-1960

Ego-alt corel. 0.79 0.86 0.73 0.39 0.43 0.39

` ` newsp. asc. 0.62 0.72 0.58

Sqrt of r2 or pseudo-r2 linear or logit regression

Smoking 0.16 0.19 0.08 0.19 0.16 0.17

Self-confid. 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03

Pers. Income 0.15 0.16 0.05 0.26 0.24 0.22

Home own/b. 0.14 0.25 0.04 0.22 0.23 0.16

Volunteer 0.21 0.16 0.20 0.16 0.22 0.12

Any invest Inc. 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.22 0.25 0.21

Age (linear) 0.06 0.04 0.14 0.01 0.10 0.08

Gender 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.14

14 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 15: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Nodes represent newspapers; ties between nodes indicate it’s relatively more common for two individuals who read the two papers to have a social connection (here using co-residence)

15

All adults (1991-2011)

Daily Express

Daily Mail

Daily Mirror/Record

Daily Star

Daily Telegraph

Financial Times

Guardian

Independent

Other

Regional

Sun

Times

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 16: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Births after 1960 (1991-2011)

Daily Express

Daily Mail

Daily Mirror/Record

Daily Star

Daily Telegraph

Financial Times

GuardianIndependent

Other

Regional

SunTimes

Births before 1960 (1991-2011)

Daily Express

Daily Mail

Daily Mirror/Record

Daily Star

Daily Telegraph

Financial Times

Guardian

Independent

Other

Regional

Sun

Times

Recent adults (2004, 2011)

Daily Express

Daily Mail

Daily Mirror/Record

Daily Star

Daily Telegraph

Financial Times

Guardian

Independent

Other

Regional

Sun

Times

Earlier adults (1991-8)

Daily Express

Daily Mail

Daily Mirror/RecordDaily Star

Daily TelegraphFinancial Times

Guardian

Independent

Other Regional

Sun

Times

16

(Comparisons suggest ageing and/or cohort change in social distance?)

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 17: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

‘Catnets’ in leisure and consumption?

• Categories of social networks (White, 1992) – E.g. a student might have networks amongst others

from the same course, same halls, same sports teams (and combinations of more than one)

• Concept can be applied to homophily: – Do my friends vote the same way as me? Read the

same papers as me? Have similar levels of education?

• Both vote like me and read the same paper?

• {Homophily itself likely to result from several different processes - propinquity, attraction, assimilation}

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 17

Page 18: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Education (n=48,666)

Paper type (n=25,469)

Political views (n=32,577)

Religion (n=37,386)

University (33%) Broadsheet (28%) Left (43%) Catholic (14%)

Non-univ. (52%) Tabloid (55%) Centre/left (3%) Protestant (13%)

No quals. (15%) Regional (17%) Centre (8%) Anglican (39%)

People in survey: 49,739

Only allocated if respondent indicated a newspaper that they often read. ‘Broadsheet’ defined if over 50% of readers in UKHLS are graduates (cf. technical definition)

Centre/right (3%) Islam (7%)

Right (34%) Hindu (3%)

Right/left (10%) Jewish (0.5%)

Left/right/centre defined by political party supported and newspaper read (defined as majority voters for paper). Those with different party and newspaper outlooks in composite categories.

Sikh (1%)

Buddhist (0.5%)

No religion (22%)

Missing data and ‘other’ category omitted

• Uneven number of categories and levels of missing data • Newspaper has influence on paper type and politics • Education correlates strongly with paper type • Modelling interpretation should be able to take these issues into account

18 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Example: UKHLS, Wave 3 (2011-2), categories in 4 domains

Page 19: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Husband

Ego: University, Catholic, left, broadsheet

• University+Catholic

• University+left

• University+broadsheet

• Catholic+left

• Catholic+broadsheet

• Left+broadsheet

Wife

Alter: Univ., Islam, centre, tabloid

• University+Islam

• University+centre

• University+tabloid

• Islam+centre

• Islam+tabloid

• Centre+tabloid

• Up to 6 ‘identities’ can be created per person (36 possible identity combinations per couple)

• Exemplar combination above shows homogamy in terms of education, but not in terms

of religion, politics or news consumption

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 19

Empirical combinations of categories between an ego (left) and alter (right) were studied here in terms of values over 2 measures

Page 20: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Jewish, higher educ.

Islam, low education

Protestant, Centre, higher educ.

Regional, Centre

Sikh, low education

Centre/Right, higher educ.

Left and Centre

Hindu Religion dominates the most over-represented social interaction patterns

Combinations that occur >10 times expected ratio, & at least 7 times in total (UKHLS, Wave 3) Colours reflect the two categories comprising the characteristic.

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 20

Page 21: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Homogamy network: combinations that occur >2 times expected ratio and at least 7 times (UKHLS, Wave 3) http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 21

Page 22: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

QAP Regression of over-represented ties (UKHLS – Wave 3)

Homogamy All Younger Older

Religion .09** .12*** .12***

Two-categ. .27 .27*** .27***

Edu .12** .06*** .06**

Views .05* .03 .03*

Paper type .01 .15*** .15***

Adj. R2 .18** .24*** .24***

Homophily All Younger Older

Religion -.02 .21*** .07***

Two-categ. .93 .62*** .64***

Edu .03* .06** .12***

Views .04* .01 .06***

Paper type -.000* -.002 -.003

Adj. R2 .94* .67*** .64***

Homogamy shows little difference between younger and older cohorts. Different results when combined, and therefore similar overall pattern through different connections. Political views and education alter between cohorts.

Homophily shows differences between younger and older cohorts and little cohesion when assessing all. Political views only significant for older cohort, but effects on education and religion coefficients also.

Ties occurring at least twice as often as expected: Homogamy: and at least 7 times (174k observations) Homophily: and at least 3 times (8.9k observations)

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 22

Page 23: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

QAP Regression of over-represented ties (BHPS – wave 1)

Homogamy All Younger Older

Religion .05** .04** .09***

Two-categ. .39*** .43*** .55***

Edu .06** .09*** .06**

Views .23*** .18*** .11***

Paper type .06* .12*** -.00

Adj. R2 .43*** .52*** .52***

Homophily All

Religion .29***

Two categ. .13***

Edu .28***

Views .01

Paper type .09**

Adj. R2 .55***

Apparent changes over time: Paper type significant for younger but not older; Political views appear to differ; Religion more important for older cohort;

Different pattern to homogamy : •Friends more likely to be same religion •Political views less important •Education more common (but, different patterns to UKHLS)

Ties occurring at least twice as often as expected: Homogamy: and at least 3 times (15,779 observations) Homophily: and at least 3 times (3,795 observations)

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 23

Page 24: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Schematic example of using loglinear model to assess forms of homogamy, using ‘diagonal’ terms

UKHLS, Wave 3: 625 couples who both read one of the Guardian, Times or Mirror, and both vote for one of the three main parties.

78.1% vote the same and read the same (complete homogamy) 17.1% read same paper but vote differently (newspaper homogamy) 3.7% vote the same but read different paper (voting homogamy) 1.1% vote different and read different papers (complete heterogamy)

Wife Husband

Guardian Times Mirror

Lab Con Lib Lab Con Lib Lab Con Lib

Guardian Lab 166 2 11 3 0 1 5 0 0

Con 8 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 0

Lib 7 2 14 0 0 1 0 0 0

Times Lab 7 2 1 41 6 8 2 0 0

Con 2 0 0 13 103 18 0 0 0

Lib 0 0 1 7 7 13 0 0 0

Mirror Lab 1 0 0 2 0 1 140 3 5

Con 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 2

Lib 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 24

Page 25: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

LL Degrees Freedom

Delta BIC % of BIC decrease

Independence 164,787 19,881 .3450 3,166,621

+ education*paper 162,014 19,872 .3401 3,169,958 (+3.3%)

+ paper*religion 161,193 19,854 .3400 3,163,356 3.3%

+ education*views 161,173 19,863 .3388 3,163,226 3.4%

+ religion*views 159,660 19,835 .3386 3,162,053 4.6%

+ paper*views 159,657 19,866 .3378 3,161,674 4.9%

+ education*religion 157,071 19,854 .3354 3,159,234 7.4%

+ Education 153,004 19,878 .3244 3,154,875 11.7%

+ Two-categ. 137,471 19,739 .3056 3,141,031 25.6%

+ Views 138,783 19,875 .3066 3,140,691 25.9%

+ Paper type 138,718 19,878 .3037 3,140,589 26.0%

+ Religion 123,278 19,872 .3035 3,125,222 41.4%

Full 63,297 19,576 .1952 3,068,838

Full (except 2 level) 63,297 19,718 .1952 3,067,112

Full (except 2 level & two-categ)

64,449 19,860 .2057 3,066,539

Loglinear models for homogamy using the volume of 2-category combinations (with terms for ‘diagonals’) UKHLS Wave 3: 190k cases from 11,801

couples. No evidence that 2-category diagonals are important, but 1-category diagonals are. Conclude: We have some similarity to partners, but not too much.

25 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 26: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

LL Degrees Freedom

Delta BIC % of BIC decrease

Independence 16,770 9,025 .349 263,898

+ education*paper 16,625 9,016 .347 263,842 0.6%

+ paper*religion 16,607 9,011 .347 263,873 2.8%

+ education*views 16,153 9,009 .338 263,438 5.1%

+ religion*views 15,873 9,001 .335 263,237 7.3%

+ paper*views 16,618 9,013 .347 263,864 3.7%

+ education*religion 15,276 9,004 .323 262,611 14.2%

+ Education 14,787 9,022 .316 261,945 21.5%

+ Two-categ. 13,420 8,929 .292 261,488 26.5%

+ Views 14,168 9,019 .306 261,356 28.0%

+ Paper type 15,580 9,022 .336 262,737 12.8%

+ Religion 12,871 9,018 .300 260,067 42.2%

Full 7,596 9,006 .204 254,910

Full (except 2 level) 7,482 8,814 .196 256,678

Full (except 2 level & two-categ.)

7,483 8,910 .196 255,738

Loglinear models for homogamy using the volume of 2-category combinations (with terms for ‘diagonals’) BHPS wave 1: 18,008 cases on 2,823 couples

Dominance of religion (=UKHLS); education appears stronger in 1991; educ*religion more ‘divisive’ than type of paper read.

26 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 27: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Young (both born since 1960) Older (both born pre 1960)

Delta

% of BIC decrease

Delta % of BIC decrease

Education .3128 3.8% Education .3457 12.1%

Views .3049 14.8% Two-categ. .3270 24.7%

Paper type .2996 15.8% Religion .3398 26.5%

Two-categ. .2951 18.4% Paper type .3206 30.9%

Religion .2851 54.7% Views .3177 35.9%

Young (both born since 1960)

Older (both born pre 1960)

Delta BIC Delta BIC

Independence .3316 1,305,092 .3674 1,409,536

Full .2013 1,273,373 .2145 1,365,769

Full (except 2 level) .2013 1,271,772 .2145 1,364,188

Full (except 2 level & 2-c) .2951 1,300,583 .2264 1,363,381

Homogamy effects broken down by age UKHLS Wave 3: 95k cases from 4.9k couples for older; 79k cases from 5.8k couples for younger

Older cohort are more homogamous Delta for independence model for younger cohort lower than for the education and religion models for older. No evidence of ‘pulling apart’ Religion becomes relatively more important for younger cohort? 27

Page 28: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Young (both born since 1940) Older (both born pre 1940)

Delta

% of BIC decrease

Delta % of BIC decrease

Paper .326 10.6% Education .363 6.6%

Two-categ. .283 20.3% Two-categ. .314 20.1%

Education .308 23.8% Paper .350 23.8%

Views .297 28.2% Views .326 42.9%

Religion .295 42.5% Religion .319 57.1%

Young (both born since 1940)

Older (both born pre 1940)

Delta BIC Delta BIC

Independence .335 149,521 .371 85,139

Full .202 145,696 .229 83,439

Full (except 2 level) .202 146,518 .229 82,820

Full (except 2 level & 2-c) .201 144,958 .242 82,281

Homogamy effects broken down by age BHPS wave 1 (1991): 6,096 cases from 842 couples for older; 10,292 cases from 1,769 couples for younger

Again, older cohort are more homogamous, but very similar Religion and political views remain important, but weaker relationship. Increase in educational similarity, but lowering of types of newspaper read. Similar patterns but small reduction in homogamy? No evidence of ‘pulling apart’.

28

Page 29: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Born Cohort Sample

Pre-1940 older 1991

1940-1973 younger

1991

Pre 1960 older

2011/12

Post 1960 younger 2011/12

Independence .371 .335 .367 .332

Full .229 .202 .215 .201

Full (except 2 level) .229 .202 .215 .201

Full (except 2 level & 2-c) .242 .201 .226 .295

Born Sampled

Pre-1940 1991 (older)

1940-1973 1991 (younger)

Pre 1960 2011/12 (older)

Post 1960 2011/12 (younger)

Delta

% of BIC decrease

Delta % of BIC decrease

Delta % of BIC decrease

Delta % of BIC decrease

Paper .350 23.8% .326 10.6% .321 30.9% .300 15.8%

Two-cat. .314 20.1% .283 20.3% .327 24.7% .295 18.4%

Education .363 6.6% .308 23.8% .346 12.1% .313 3.8%

Views .326 42.9% .297 28.2% .318 35.9% .305 14.8%

Religion .319 57.1% .295 42.5% .340 26.5% .285 54.7%

Older cohort generally more homogamous; no trend effects between surveys

Religion, for older UKHLS, seems an outlier; Trend for views and paper type to become same (assimilation?); Educational similarity for ‘generation X’?

29

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…more networkds and loglinear models..

• Also tried various permutations for homophily (blue) rather than homogamy (red) (black=both) – On homophily, a more even balance between influences (views,

religion, education, paper)

– Education mattered relatively more in BHPS, religion relatively more in UKHLS

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 30

BHPS

UKHLS

Page 31: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Summary on lifestyle patterns

• Strong influence of social structure of inequality in other domains of behaviour (dimensions of interaction are shaped by social stratification)

• Mixed / inconclusive evidence of trend through time

– Also true for other items that we’ve measured (e.g. sports participation)

– Difficulty of distinguishing cohort from ageing effects

• Combinations of identities or ‘Catnets’ are not especially critical (it’s positions themselves that matter most)

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 31

Page 32: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

(3) Social distance patterns in Britain in socio-economic measures

What characterises the main dimensions of social association patterns according to categories of occupations, educational levels, ethnicity and religion, and does this change through time?

• Use social interaction distance analysis to characterise the own-alter relationship between categories (here use correspondence analysis & SNA) and its change through time – Overall strength of the ego-alter relationship

(‘inertia’ / Cramer’s V / gap between selected units)

– Evidence of trends in that structure through time or between countries

32 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 33: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5

70 & over

60-69

50-59

40-49

30-39

20-29

16-19

Same age

0 .1 .2 .3 .4

Unskilled

Partly-skilled manual

Skilled manual

Skilled nonmanual

Managerial/technical

Professional

Same income, by RGSC

0 .2 .4 .6

Mixed backgroundother ethnic group

Asian (other)Bangladeshi

PakistaniIndianBlack

White non-BritishWhite British

Same ethnicity

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5

None

Other

GCSE

A-Level

Higher education

Graduate

Same qualifications

Source: UKHLS, Wave C

Friends with shared characteristic

all more than half

half Less than half

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

UKHLS, wave 3:

33

Page 34: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

0.5

.6.7

.8.9

1

Ho

mog

am

y in

relig

ion

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Year of husband's birth

Religion homogamy

0.5

.6.7

.8.9

1

Ho

mog

am

y in

edu

ca

tio

n

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Year of husband's birth

Educational homogamy0

.5.6

.7.8

.91

Ho

mog

am

y in

polit

icis

ed

vie

ws

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Year of husband's birth

Politicised views homogamy

0.5

.6.7

.8.9

1

Ho

mog

am

y in

pap

er

typ

e

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Year of husband's birth

Paper type homogamy

11,801 couples: UKHLS, wave 3 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 34

UKHLS homogamy (2011/12) explored as a trend over time

Page 35: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Consequential gaps between social groups?

• Social groups: Occupations; Education; Ethnicity; Religion

• Consequential gaps: Evidence of changes in social distance between groups

• Previous social distance research shows: – No major peturbations (so far) in the underlying order

defined by social distance (e.g. Prandy and Lambert 2003) – Levels of homogamy/homophily generally stable or, for

education, marginally increasing (e.g. Brynin et al. 2008)

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 35

Page 36: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

‘Social interaction distance’ (SID) analysis of occupations is now very well charted (Stewart et al. 1980, Laumann & Guttman 1966, Prandy 1990, Chan 2010, de Luca et al. 2012) (…and www.camsis.stir.ac.uk)

- First dimension is of stratification (or ‘status’) - Other interpretable dimensions (gender segregation, agriculture, public sector) - Any form of social connection data probably reveals the same structure

20

40

60

80

10

0

Man

ager

s & a

dministra

tors

Profe

ssiona

l

Assoc

iate

pro

fess

. & te

chnica

l

Cleric

al &

sec

reta

rial

Cra

ft & re

late

d

Perso

nal &

pro

tective

serv

ices

Sales

Plant

& m

achine

ope

rativ

es

Oth

er o

ccup

ations

All combined

Spouses Wifes only

Unmarried cohab only Male friends

Co-resident males Fathers

Fathers-in-law Career - next jobs

Data on males in work and various alters, from BHPS 1991-2000.36

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For educational qualifications, first dimension of SID is usually stratification; subsidiary dimensions are not so clear, but might reflect age cohort differences in prevalence

no qfapprenticeshipno qfno qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

no qf

other qf

no qfapprenticeship

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

no qfno qfno qfapprenticeshipapprenticeshipno qf

other qf

apprenticeshipno qfno qf

other qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qfother qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeshipno qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qf

apprenticeship

other qf

apprenticeship

other qfother qf

apprenticeship

other qfother qf

apprenticeship

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

other qf

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levelsgce a levelsgce a levelsgce a levelsgce a levels

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

gce a levelsgce a levels

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

higher degree

first degree

other higher qf

first degree

other higher qfother higher qf

first degree

other higher qfother higher qfother higher qf

higher degree

first degreefirst degree

higher degree

commercial qf, no o levels

higher degree

other higher qf

higher degree

first degreefirst degreefirst degree

other higher qfother higher qfother higher qf

first degree

higher degree

first degree

commercial qf, no o levels

higher degreehigher degree

nursing qfother higher qf

higher degree

teaching qf

higher degree

teaching qfteaching qfteaching qfteaching qf

other higher qf

teaching qfteaching qf

first degree

commercial qf, no o levels

nursing qfnursing qf

teaching qfteaching qfteaching qf

commercial qf, no o levels

teaching qf

nursing qfnursing qf

higher degree

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levels

first degree

teaching qf

commercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levels

higher degree

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levels

nursing qfnursing qfnursing qfnursing qfnursing qf

no qf

other qf

no qfno qfno qfno qf

other qf

no qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

no qf

other qfother qf

no qfapprenticeship

other qf

no qfno qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeshipapprenticeship

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

no qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

no qf

other qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qf

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

apprenticeship

other qfother qf

apprenticeship

cse grade 2-5,scot grade 4-5

other qf

apprenticeshipapprenticeshipapprenticeship

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

nursing qf

gce o levels or equiv

commercial qf, no o levels

gce a levels

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levels

gce o levels or equiv

commercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levels

gce a levels

commercial qf, no o levels

gce o levels or equiv

gce a levels

commercial qf, no o levels

gce o levels or equiv

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levelscommercial qf, no o levels

gce a levels

commercial qf, no o levels

nursing qf

gce a levelsgce a levels

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levels

gce o levels or equiv

nursing qfnursing qf

gce a levels

nursing qf

gce a levelsgce a levels

nursing qf

gce o levels or equivgce o levels or equivgce o levels or equiv

commercial qf, no o levels

nursing qf

commercial qf, no o levels

nursing qfnursing qf

gce a levels

first degreefirst degree

other higher qf

higher degree

other higher qfother higher qf

first degree

other higher qf

higher degree

first degreefirst degree

other higher qfother higher qf

teaching qf

higher degree

other higher qf

teaching qfteaching qfteaching qfteaching qf

other higher qfother higher qf

first degree

teaching qf

higher degree

first degree

higher degree

other higher qf

teaching qf

higher degreehigher degree

teaching qfteaching qfteaching qf

higher degreehigher degree

first degree

other higher qfother higher qf

teaching qf

first degree

higher degree

first degreefirst degree

higher degree

first degree

higher degree

teaching qf

Dim

1

Dim 2 or CS

Husband's education Wife's education

Own dim1-CAMSIS Spouse dim1-CAMSIS

Cramer’s V: 0.189 Correlation to CAMSIS: 0.97 % ties > 2SD’s: 0.9%

37 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 38: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Own ethnicity – Friend’s ethnicity

For ethnicity, so far, all of the main dimensions reflect separation of just one or two groups from all others

White

Asian

Black African

Black Caribbean

Chinese

Mixed

Other

-600 -400 -200 0 200

Dim 1 score Dim 2 score Dim 3 score Mean Educ

Cramer’s V: 0.334 Correlation to CAMSIS: -0.17 % ties > 2SD’s: 1.1%

Lauman 1973: 1st dim. = assimilation, further dims unclear, maybe catholicism P50: “Our efforts to determine the role of socio-economic status, …, occupational status, and school years completed… in structuring the space have been unsuccessful”

38

Page 39: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

-150 -100 -50 0 50

muslim/islam

no religion

christian

other

jewish

hindu

sikh

Dim 1 score Dim 2 score

Dim 3 score Mean CAMSIS

Own religion – Alter’s religion A similar conclusion as ethnicity. Main empirical patterns with groups linked to immigration. Dim 2 might perhaps be ‘visibility’ but this seems tenuous. Different results when disaggregate ‘Christian’ category. {Patterns are similar with and without diagonals}

Cramer’s V: 0.729 Correlation to CAMSIS: 0.04 % ties > 2SD’s: 0.0%

39

Page 40: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

So, is Britain pulling apart…?

Detailed occs (1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)

M-M friends (BHPS cols 1 3-dig, 2-3=1dig) Other measures, using H-W data, BHPS

BHPS 2004 0.38 0.43 7.5 Educ, > 1960 0.17 0.48 9.4

` ` 2000 0.35 0.44 7.0 Educ, < 1960 0.19 0.52 8.9

` ` 1998 0.39 0.43 9.3

` ` 1994 0.42 0.47 7.6 Ethnic, > 1960 0.52 0.87 0.0

` ` 1992 0.44 0.46 6.1 Ethnic, < 1960 0.62 0.85 0.1

SSGB 1974 0.26 0.64 2.9

Oxford 1972 0.24 0.52 5.6 Relig, > 1960 0.55 0.96 0.0

BHPS only Relig, < 1960 0.59 0.83 0.1

H-W, > 1960 0.24 0.33 7.3

H-W, < 1960 0.22 0.35 9.6 Occ10, > 1970 0.34 0.32 8.2

HS, > 1960 0.34 0.33 9.1 Occ10, < 1940 0.37 0.39 7.1

HS, < 1960 0.25 0.21 11.5

(1) Cramer’s V for ego-alter; (2) Ego-Alt dim1 correlation; (3) % ego-alt > 2SD different in dim 1. < 1960 refers to egos born up to 1960; > 1960 refers to egos born after 1960 40

Page 41: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

.2.4

.6.8

1

Occ10, < 1

940

Oxfo

rd 1

972

SS

GB

1974

BH

PS

1992

BH

PS

1994

BH

PS

1998

BH

PS

2000

BH

PS

2004

Occ10, > 1

970

H-W

, < 1

960

H-W

, > 1

960

HS

, < 1

960

HS

, > 1

960

Educ, < 1

960

Educ, > 1

960

Eth

nic

, < 1

960

Eth

nic

, > 1

960

Relig

, < 1

960

Relig

, > 1

960

type

Cramer's V ego-alter Association, dim 1 ego - dim 1 alter

Analysis based on ego-alter associations disaggregated by year of survey or birth year. Points refer to social distance between occupations unless otherwise indicated.

Trends in UK in social distance

41 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

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Difficulties of comparison regarding category definitions and trend criteria…

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 42

0.2

.4.6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Cases

Year (4-cat) Age (4) YoB (4) YoB, 40s (4)

Year (14-cat) Age (14) YoB (14) YoB, 40s (14)

Cramer's V

Source: Pooled GHS time series, 1974-2004. Horizontal axis refers to different time metrics by line. Metrics refer to: Years since 1970/5; age in decades-1; birth cohort (year of birth since 1900). Lines show statisics when education is coded into 4 or 14-category versions, and for different measures of time (year, age, year of birth, and year of birth for adults in their 40s).

Educational homogamy in the UK

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0.5

0 2 4 6 8

Cramer's V

24

6

0 2 4 6 8

High-Low 'Social distance'(Gap in score in 1st dimension)

01

2

0 2 4 6 8

Over-representation ratio(high-low obs./exp.)

.4.5

.60 2 4 6 8

H-W correlation in 1st dimension

Source: Pooled GHS time series, 1974-2004. Horizontal axis refers to different time metrics by line. Metrics refer to: Years since 1970/5; age in decades-1; birth cohort (year of birth since 1900). Lines show statisics when education is coded into 4 or 14-category versions, and for different measures of time (year, age, year of birth, and year of birth for adults in their 40s).

Educational homogamy in the UK

Year (4-cat) Age (4) YoB (4) YoB + 40s (4)

Year (14-cat) Age (14) YoB (14) YoB, 40s (14)

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 43

Page 44: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

0.5

0 2 4 6 8

Cramer's V

05

0 2 4 6 8

High-Low 'Social distance'(Gap in score in 1st dimension)

02

0 2 4 6 8

Over-representation ratio(high-low obs./exp.)

.4.5

.60 2 4 6 8

H-W correlation in 1st dimension

Source: Pooled GHS time series, 1974-2004. Horizontal axis refers to different time metrics by line. Metrics refer to: Years since 1970/5; age in decades-1; birth cohort (year of birth since 1900). Lines show statisics when education is coded into 4 or 14-category versions, and for different measures of time (year, age, year of birth, and year of birth for adults in their 40s). Lines smoothed with local linear smoothing (lowess)

Educational homogamy in the UK

Year (4-cat) Age (4) YoB (4) YoB + 40s (4)

Year (14-cat) Age (14) YoB (14) YoB, 40s (14)

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 44

Page 45: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

LFS images

45

0.5

1

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Cramer's V

01

23

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

High-Low distance

0.2

.4.6

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Over-representation(high-low obs./exp.)

0.5

1

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

H-W correl. in 1st dim 0.5

1

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

H-W correl. in strat. score

Source: Pooled LFS, 1997-2013, cohabiting couples. Horizontal axis refers to time point of observation. Colours indicate age cohort within time period (age of husband). N ~= 5k couples per time period.

Homogamy in the UK

Age 50-60 Age 25-35 Ethnicity

Education Occupation Religion

Page 46: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 46

0.5

1

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Cramer's V

01

23

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

High-Low distance

0.2

.4.6

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Over-representation(high-low obs./exp.)

0.5

1

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

H-W correl. in 1st dim 0.5

1

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

H-W correl. in strat. score

Source: Pooled LFS, 1997-2013, cohabiting couples. Horizontal axis refers to time point of observation. 'Lowess' lines plotted (local linear smooth) Colours indicate age cohort within time period (age of husband). N ~= 5k couples per time period.

Homogamy in the UK

Age 50-60 Age 25-35 Ethnicity

Education Occupation Religion

Page 47: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

..Here are some regressions on trends, using microdata, that I’m not yet sure about..

47

GHS, 1972-2004 LFS, 1997-2013

legend: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001 r2 .017612 .035805 .048883 ll -133442 -131857 -130700 N 169523 169523 169523 _cons .18295*** -.22571*** -.96405*** yob2 -.000052*** 4.6e-06 yob .013648*** .009679*** m_age2 -.000231*** -.000231*** m_age .017555*** .027294*** Variable mfdif1 mfdif2 mfdif3

-1-.

50

.5

0 50 100 150x

Age

YoB

Male-female educ difference, age and year of birth effects

legend: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001 r2 .008559 .009025 .001393 .003132 ll -288846 -318484 -105485 -110744 N 352155 359266 466001 275253 _cons -.87408*** .98797*** -.034627*** -.037084 yob2 -.000038*** -.000043*** .000025*** .000019* yob .01388*** -.002575*** -.001577*** -.000368 h_age2 -.000129*** .00005*** -.000012*** -5.4e-06 h_age .020131*** -.009385*** .001767*** .000991 Variable educ occ eth relig

-.5

0.5

1

0 20 40 60 80 100YoB since 1900

Educ Occ

Eth Relig

Male-female educ difference, (YoB effect net of age)

Page 48: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

• It might be more consistent to compare patterns against an anticipated (a priori) trend line?

Either flatline, or linear change by 1 sd each decade, or quadratic by (sd/dec^2)…

48

Cramer’s V trend

with time for

education, GHS.

The observed

patterns fit

somewhat with

linear increase but

of the options, no

change is best

Unconstrained, a

more moderate

linear increase fits

best

-2-1

01

2

0 2 4 6 8timeunit

Data points No change (.875)

Linear increase (1.849) Linear decrease (10.4)

Quadratic increase (276.826) Quadratic decrease (336.548)

Statistics are a mean value for the squared error expressed as a proportion of the variance

Pulling apart!

Tearing apart!

No change

Pushing together!

Crashing together!

Page 49: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Social distance trends in Britain

GHS data, 72-04 Type of Stat. Best trend line LFS data, 1997-2013

Best trend line (age 50-60)

Best trend line (age 25-35)

Educ (4) by yob Cramer’s V No change (+) Educ. Pulling apart (+) No change (+)

`` HW Dim 1 cor. No change (+) `` Pulling apart (+) No change (+)

`` High-Low dist. No change (--) `` Pulling together (-) Pulling together (-)

`` H-L occurrence No change (-) `` Pulling apart (+) Pulling apart (+)

H-W strat cor. `` Pulling apart (+) No change (+)

Educ (4) by yob Cramer’s V Pulling apart (+) Occ (9) Pulling together (-) Pulling apart (+)

for age 40-50 HW Dim 1 cor. Pulling apart (+) `` Pulling together (-) Pulling apart (+)

`` High-Low dist. Pulling together (-) `` Pulling apart (+) Pulling apart (+)

`` H-L occurrence No change `` No change Pulling apart (+)

H-W strat cor. `` Pulling together (-) Pulling apart (++)

Educ(14) by yob Cramer’s V No change (++) Ethnic (11) No change (+) No change (++)

`` HW Dim 1 cor. No change (++) `` Pulling together (-) Pulling together (-)

`` High-Low dist. No change `` Pulling apart (+) Pulling apart (++)

`` H-L occurrence No change (-) `` Pulling apart (+) Pulling apart (+)

H-W strat cor. `` Pulling apart (+) No change

49

Page 50: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

What about in comparison to other countries? -2

-10

12

3

ATBE

BGCH

CYCZ

DEDK

EEES

FIFR

GBGR

HRHU

IEIL

ISIT

LTLU

LVNL

NOPL

PTRO

RUSE

SISK

TRUA

ESS 2002-10, Professional ESS 2002-10, Elementary

ISSP 1990-6, Professional ISSP 1990-6, Elementary

Data from ISSP, 1990-1996, and ESS 2002-2010. Husband-Wife occupations. Horizontal lines show cross-country means (continuous for 2002-10; dashed for 1990-6)

Occupational social distance scores for ISCO major groups, 1990's - 2000's

50 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 51: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

10. Armed forces

9. Elementary occupations

8. Plant and machine operators and assemblers

7. Crafts and related trades workers

6. Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

5. Service workers and shop and market sales

4. Clerks

3. Technicians and associate professionals

2. Professionals

1. Legislators, senior officials and managers

4. University completed

3. Secondary completed

2. Primary completed

1. Less than primary completed

7. Other

6. Christian

5. Muslim

4. Jewish

3. Hindu

2. Buddhist

1. No religion

60. Other 55. Two or more races

49. Other Asian 48. Bangladeshi

47. Pakistani 46. Indian

45. Filipino 44. Vietnamese

43. Korean 42. Japanese

41. Chinese 31. American Indian

24. Other Black 22. Black Caribbean

21. Black African 20. Black 10. White

IPUMS-I: Categorical measures used

51

Page 52: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Global orders of social interaction distance… -2

-1.5

-1-.

50

.5

-8 -6 -4 -2 0

Ethnic group

-25

-20

-15

-10

-50

0 1 2 3 4

Religion

-1-.

50

.51

-1 -.5 0 .5 1

Education

-2-1

.5-1

-.5

0.5

-1 -.5 0 .5 1

Occupation

Husband Wife

52

Page 53: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

53

.2.4

.6.8

1F

rance 1

962

Fra

nce 1

968

Fra

nce 1

975

Fra

nce 1

982

Fra

nce 1

990

Fra

nce 1

999

Fra

nce 2

006

Gre

ece 1

971

Gre

ece 1

981

Gre

ece 1

991

Gre

ece 2

001

Hungary

1970

Hungary

1980

Hungary

1990

Hungary

2001

Mexic

o 1

970

Mexic

o 1

990

Mexic

o 1

995

Mexic

o 2

000

Mexic

o 2

010

Spain

1991

Spain

2001

Sw

itzerland 1

970

Sw

itzerland 1

980

Sw

itzerland 1

990

Sw

itzerland 2

000

UK

1991

US

A 1

960

US

A 1

970

US

A 1

980

US

A 1

990

US

A 2

000

US

A 2

005

US

A 2

010

Ethnicity Religion

Education Occupation

Analysis based on husband-wife associations from IPUMS-I data. Blue lines = Ego-alter Cramer's V. Purple lines = Ego-Alt dim1 association

International trends in social distance

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 54: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Summary on social change in social distance

…Britain isn’t pulling apart, because change here and there isn’t the same as social upheaval…

- Interesting profiles of social change from studying social distance using both socioeconomic and lifestyle measures

- In terms of social distance, there are examples of ‘pulling apart’, and of no change, and of ‘pushing together’!

- But there definitely isn’t evidence of ‘tearing apart’ - Compared to social theories, narratives of social change are unsupported

by evidence, but this is because the theories tend to over-exaggerate change (modernisation theory, and models of stability, are safer here)

- Methodological issues - lack of long term and easily compared data – even today - Choice of statistics and inference criteria

…Thanks for your attention…!

54 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 55: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

References cited • Bourdieu, P. (1977) ‘Cultural Reproduction and Social Reproduction’ in J. Karabel and A.H. Halsey(eds) Power and

Ideology in Education. New York: Oxford University Press. • Chan, T. W. (Ed.). (2010). Social Status and Cultural Consumption. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. • Chan, T. W., & Goldthorpe, J. H. (2007). Social Status and Newspaper Readership. American Journal of Sociology,

112(4), 1095-1134. • Christakis, N., & Fowler, J. (2010). Connected: The amazing power of social networks and how they shape our lives.

London: Harper Press. • Dorling, D. (2011) Injustice: Why Social Inequality Persists. Bristol: Polity Press. • Erikson, R., & Goldthorpe, J. H. (2010). Has social mobility in Britain decreased? Reconciling divergent findings on

income and class mobility. British Journal of Sociology, 61(2), 211-230. • ETUI. (2012). Benchmarking Working Europe 2012. Brussels: European Trade Union Institute. • Evans, G., & Tilley, J. (2011) ‘How Parties Shape Class Politics: Explaining the Decline of the Class Basis of Party

Support’, British Journal of Political Science, 42(1), 137-161. • Finney, N., and Simpson, L. (2009) Sleepwalking to Segregation? Challenging Myths About Race and Migration.

Bristol: Polity Press. • Hutton, W. (2011) Them and Us. London: Abacus • Jivraj, S. (2012), How has ethnic diversity grown 1991–2001–2011?, Dynamics of Diversity: Evidence from the 2011

Census, Manchester: Centre on Dynamics of Ethnicity, University of Manchester. • Jones, O. (2011) Chavs. London: Verso. • Lambert, P.S., Prandy, K., and Botero, W. (2007) ‘By Slow Degrees: Two Centuries of Socail Reproduction in Britain’,

Sociological Research Online, 12(1). • Laumann, E. O. (1973). Bonds of Pluralism: The form and substance of urban social networks. New York: Wiley. • Laumann, E. O., & Guttman, L. (1966). The relative associational contiguity of occupations in an urban setting.

American Sociological Review, 31, 169-178. • Marks, G. N. (2014). Education, Social Background and Cognitive Ability. London: Routledge. • Peston, R. (2008) Who Runs Britain? How Britain’s New Elite are Changing our Lives. London: Hodder & Stroughton. • Prandy, K. (1990). The Revised Cambridge Scale of Occupations. Sociology, 24(4), 629-655. • Prandy, K., & Lambert, P. S. (2003). Marriage, Social Distance and the Social Space: An alternative derivation and

validation of the Cambridge Scale. Sociology, 37(3), 397-411. • Stewart, A., Prandy, K., & Blackburn, R. M. (1980). Social Stratification and Occupations. London: MacMillan. • Swift, A. (2004). Would Perfect Mobility be Perfect? European Sociological Review, 20(1), 1-11. • White, H. (1992) Identity and Control: A Structural Theory of Social Action. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

55 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 56: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

Data sources • British Household Panel Study – University of Essex, & Institute for Social and Economic Research. (2011). British Household Panel Survey: Waves 1-18, 1991-2008 [computer file], 5th Edition. Colchester, Essex: UK Data

Archive [distributor], SN 5151.

• United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (‘Understanding society’) – University of Essex. Institute for Social and Economic Research and NatCen Social Research, Understanding Society: Waves 1-3, 2009-2012 [computer file]. 5th Edition. Colchester, Essex:

UK Data Archive [distributor], November 2013. SN: 6614 , http://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-6614-5

• General Household Survey – Office for National Statistics. Social and Vital Statistics Division, General Household Survey: Time Series Dataset, 1972-2004 [computer file]. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor], July 2007. SN: 5664.

• Labour Force Survey – Office for National Statistics. Social Survey Division and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. Central Survey Unit, Quarterly Labour Force Survey, January - March, 2013 [computer file]. Colchester,

Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor], May 2013. SN: 7277 , http://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-7277-1 [and citations at UK Data Service]

• European Social Survey: – ESS Round 5: European Social Survey Round 5 Data (2010). Data file edition 3.0. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data; ESS Round 4:

European Social Survey Round 4 Data (2008). Data file edition 4.1. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data; ESS Round 3: European Social Survey Round 3 Data (2006). Data file edition 3.4. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data; ESS Round 2: European Social Survey Round 2 Data (2004). Data file edition 3.3. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data; ESS Round 1: European Social Survey Round 1 Data (2002). Data file edition 6.3. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data.

• IPUMS-International: – Minnesota Population Center. (2011). Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, International: Version 6.1 [Machine readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, and

https://international.ipums.org/ (accessed 1 July 2011).

• ISSP – ISSP Research Group, International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) (2013) Role of Government II, 1990. Distributor: GESIS Cologne Germany ZA1950; ISSP Research Group, International

Social Survey Programme (ISSP) (2013) Religion I, 1991. Distributor: GESIS Cologne Germany ZA2150; ISSP Research Group, International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) (2013) Social Inequality II, 1992. Distributor: GESIS Cologne Germany ZA2310; ISSP Research Group, International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) (2013) Environment I, 1993. Distributor: GESIS Cologne Germany ZA2450; ISSP Research Group, International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) (2013) Family and Changing Gender Roles II, 1994. Distributor: GESIS Cologne Germany ZA2620; ISSP Research Group, International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) (2013) National Identity I, 1995. Distributor: GESIS Cologne Germany ZA2880; ISSP Research Group, International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) (2013) Role of Government III, 1996. Distributor: GESIS Cologne Germany ZA2900.

• Social Status in Great Britain (1974) – Blackburn, R. M., Stewart, A., & Prandy, K. (1980). Social Status in Great Britain, 1974 [computer file]. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor], SN: 1369.

• Oxford Mobility Study (1972) – University of Oxford, & Oxford Social Mobility Group (1978). Social Mobility Inquiry, 1972 [computer file]. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor], SN: 1097.

56 http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart

Page 57: Is Britain Pulling Apart? Evidence from the analysis of ... · • Most things, in Britain, are pretty stable, but some things do change –Work, leisure, housing, family –Education,

• 11 University & left

• 12 & left/centre

• 13 & centre

• 14 & right/centre

• 15 & right

• 16 & right/left

• 21 Non-university & left

• 22 & left/centre

• 23 & centre

• 24 & right/centre

• 25 & right

• 26 & right/left

• 31 No qualification & left

• 32 & left/centre

• 33 & centre

• 34 & right/centre

• 35 & right

• 36 & right/left

• 110 University & Catholic

• 120 & Protestant

• 130 & Anglican

• 140 & Islam

• 150 & Hindu

• 160 & Jewish

• 170 & Sikh

• 180 & Buddhist

• 190 & no religion

• 210 Non-univeristy & Catholic

• 220 & Protestant

• 230 & Anglican

• 240 & Islam

• 250 & Hindu

• 260 & Jewish

• 270 & Sikh

• 280 & Buddhist

• 290 & no religion

• 310 No qualifaction & Catholic

• 320 & Protestant

• 330 & Anglican

• 340 & Islam

• 350 & Hindu

• 360 & Jewish

• 370 & Sikh

• 380 & Buddhist

• 390 & no religion

• 1100 All left & Catholic

• 1200 & Protestant

• 1300 & Anglican

• 1400 & Islam

• 1500 & Hindu

• 1600 &Jewish

• 1700 & Sikh

• 1800 & Buddhist

• 1900 & no religion

• 2100 Left/centre & Catholic

• 2200 & Protestant

• 2300 & Anglican

• 2400 & Islam

• 2500 & Hindu

• 2600 & Jewish

• 2700 & Sikh

• 2800 & Buddhist

• 2900 & no religion

• 3100 Centre & Catholic

• 3200 & Protestant

• 3300 & Anglican

• 3400 & Islam

• 3500 & Hindu

• 3600 & Jewish

• 3700 & Sikh

• 3800 & Buddhist

• 3900 & no religion

• 4100 Right/centre & Catholic

• 4200 & Protestant

• 4300 & Anglican

• 4400 & Islam

• 4500 & Hindu

• 4600 & Jewish

• 4700 & Sikh

• 4800 & Buddhist

• 4900 & no religion

• 5100 Right & Catholic

• 5200 & Protestant

• 5300 & Anglican

• 5400 & Islam

• 5500 & Hindu

• 5600 & Jewish

• 5700 & Sikh

• 5800 & Buddhist

• 5900 & no religion

• 6100 Right/left & Catholic

• 6200 & Protestant

• 6300 & Anglican

• 6400 & Islam

• 6500 & Hindu

• 6600 & Jewish

• 6700 & Sikh

• 6800 & Buddhist

• 6900 & no religion

• 11000 Broadsheet & left

• 12000 & left/centre

• 13000 & centre

• 14000 & right/centre

• 15000 & right

• 16000 & right/left

• 21000 Tabloid & left

• 22000 & left/centre

• 23000 & centre

• 24000 & right/centre

• 25000 & right

• 26000 & right/left

• 321000 Regional paper & left

• 32000 & left/centre

• 33000 & centre

• 34000 & right/centre

• 35000 & right

• 36000 & right/left

• 110000 Broadsheet & university

• 120000 & non-university

• 130000 & no qualification

• 210000 Tabloid & university

• 220000 & non-university

• 230000 & no qualification

• 310000 Regional paper & university

• 320000 & non-university

• 330000 & no qualification

• 1100000 Broadsheet & Catholic

• 1200000 & Protestant

• 1300000 & Anglican

• 1400000 & Islam

• 1500000 & Hindu

• 1600000 & Jewish

• 1700000 & Sikh

• 1800000 & Buddhist

• 1900000 & no religion

• 2100000 Tabloid & Catholic

• 2200000 & Protestant

• 2300000 & Anglican

• 2400000 & Islam

• 2500000 & Hindu

• 2600000 & Jewish

• 2700000 & Sikh

• 2800000 & Buddhist

• 2900000 & no religion

• 3100000 Regional paper & Catholic

• 3200000 & Protestant

• 3300000 & Anglican

• 3400000 & Islam

• 3500000 & Hindu

• 3600000 & Jewish

• 3700000 & Sikh

• 3800000 & Buddhist

• 3900000 & no religion

http://www.camsis.stir.ac.uk/pullingapart 57

Appendix:

coding frame for

the categories

used in UKHLS

analysis, section

2